HRANT BAGRATYAN: ONLY A REFERENDUM WILL GIVE A CLEAR ANSWER TO THE QUESTION SO AS TO BE UNDERSTOOD
ArmInfo’s interview with Hrant Bagratyan, oppositionist MP, former
prime minister of Armenia, to share his views on the issue
by Emmanuil Lazarian
Tuesday, August 13, 16:39
At the upcoming Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, Armenia will
apparently initial the Association Agreement with the EU, including
on the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). Political
scientists around the world following the situation around Eastern
Europe have no doubts that the EU introduced the idea of Eastern
Partnership at the suggestion of Poland amid Russia’s integration
ambitions in the territories of the post-Soviet area that were more or
less controlled by it. Possessor of one/third of the world’s energy
resources Russia is well aware that its ‘unification mission’ of a
world power should be restored, otherwise it may face decentralization
of power. What will be Armenia’s position on these processes? ArmInfo
correspondent asked Hrant Bagratyan, oppositionist MP, former prime
minister of Armenia, to share his views on the issue.
Mr. Bagratyan, it seems that we are approaching the very point when
the country has to determine its foreign policy orientation.
Initialing the Agreement with the EU we will make a transitional
step towards signing that Agreement, and will, actually, no longer
be able to sit on two chairs – Russia-led Customs Union. It is quite
comfortable, indeed, but our partners in the West and North are rather
critical about our position despite their soft diplomacy. What do
you think of this trend?
As an opposition politician, I have no specific data on the issue
unlike the authorities. Consequently, I cannot say what the authorities
think and what they rely on making decisions actually crucial for
our people. I can just share by impressions and thoughts about the
political puzzles that are due to turn into a single situational
picture. Firstly, it is obvious that no one in Europe thinks that
the next step for Armenia is to join the EU. Talking to European
officials – something I do quite often – one can see them surprised
at our concerns over Russia’s reaction. “What’s the problem?
Why do you so much care for Russia’s reaction?” they usually ask. In
addition, they assure that integration process with Russia is not less
intensive and Europe is ready to sign another association agreement
also with Russia.
Secondly, we are not sufficiently informed of the Customs Union
either. It seemed to me that I knew little about the situation around
the Customs Union unlike our authorities, but I have arrived at a
conclusion recently that our authorities do not know much either. I
suppose that they have had no serious talk on the Customs Union yet.
We obtained the status of an observed long ago and should have been
ready to weight all the cons and pros…
Well, in any country the government machine is rewarded from the
state budget that is replenished with taxes paid by ordinary citizens.
The government ought to thoroughly study such issues and tell us what
is favorable for our country and what is not. No one knows yet if
it is favorable to our country to join the Customs Union or not. I
am sure, neither the government does. It is not surprising that the
Armenian Embassy in Russia did not even hint at it at least through
the Foreign Ministry. It “goes underground” every time when there is
a concrete problem like it has happened recently when our compatriot
faced a trial in Moscow. Various public organizations, human rights
defenders and influential media outlets have commented on that tragedy,
while the Embassy was silent. I think the Embassy and the Foreign
Ministry must be able to adequately assess the problem: possible
joining the Customs Union with Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. Maybe,
they are not able to provide the necessary and detailed information
to the country’s leadership. Moreover, I think the ruling political
quarters do not understand anything in the situation either. When
this issue is raised in the parliament, it becomes absolutely clear
that the parliamentary majority is unaware of the issue and is out of
the subject. It is terrible! In fact, we either avoid a serious talk
with Moscow on the issue, or Moscow does not invite us to talk… To
be clear – Armenia has no DIALOGUE with Russia. In the meanwhile,
Armenia and Russia are in a single military bloc. I cannot understand
this, but I can say that it is not right. No matter what Armenia will
chose, the Customs Union or the European trade area. It is important
that neither Europe nor Russia know what to expect from Armenia.
There is nothing particular about the content of the Association
Agreement and the free trade area. They give some vague promises
regarding visa facilitation with the EU and wax rhapsodic about
$3-4 billion aid and economic prosperity. In short, we deal with
a complete information vacuum – something that is unusual for the
European work style. Hence, many questions arise. There is no certainty
also in the issue of Nagorno Karabakh. It is not clear if Armenia
should launch real customs relations with NKR when that country is
de-facto integrated into Armenia’s economy. How this issue will be
settled after signing the Association Agreement and joining the free
trade area? The agreement contains some provision on the so-called
disputable territories. Such information was leaked by Georgian and
Moldavian sources in the context of the Abkhazian-South Ossetic and
Transdniestrian problems. But, again there is nothing particular.
I have repeatedly said that such issues should not be settled
latently. Such choice must be made through a nation-wide referendum
only. For that purpose, the authorities must inform the public of
all the aspects of the problem. Through public dialogue, debates and
plebiscite the population will decide how the country should act in
such situation. After all, this is a fateful decision.
In late May I was taking part in Euronest and we were working on a
definite part of the Association Agreement. Frankly speaking, there was
nothing about Nagorno Karabakh in that document. Moldovan and Georgian
representatives were present at all the session, but those issues were
not raised. I cannot speak on behalf of our neighbors and Moldova,
but when it comes to Armenia, I can state for sure, at present it is
not important for the EU if we are with or without Karabakh. This
is the same approach as it had when the country was joining the
WTO. It is definitely a big plus for us. Although, if this issue
were raised to a high-ranking official from the EU, he would say:
“Don’t hurry. This is just the beginning of the path.” What will
happen next? We don’t know. Neither the authorities do. I can just
express my personal opinion about what I was working on. For instance,
the provision on energy saying that the power systems of Europe and
Armenia should operate on a single standard was quite admissible. No
one objects that. Who will this affect?
Nevertheless, there is an impression that in Russia they are following
these processes with concern. European officials are not indifferent
either. This means that the Agreement with the EU contains something
very important, something we have no idea about. I cannot say anything
specific as like our citizens I am deprived of information. Therefore,
it would be right if all these documents and projects are published
and set for a referendum. After all, the people should decide its
future despite difficulties.
You are absolutely right. You cannot solve such crucial problems
sitting alone in your office. This is not a battlefield.
And what if the government’s decision proves to be a gross mistake
or an excellent but missed opportunity? Today even people from the
ruling coalition are unaware of what is really going on in the Cabinet.
One month ago our Prime Minister said that we would move towards the
Customs Union. But he did it in a rather strange manner. In his joint
interview with Khristenko, he said that Armenia was searching for ways
“to merge with this process.” What did he mean by this? I am sorry but
it seems to me that somebody is just trying to save his ass. That is,
to the Europeans they may say that they did not mean an accession to
the Customs Union, while to the Russians they will say that they did.
That’s not the way it works. Even in diplomacy there must be the moment
of truth. You cannot babble when your people and partners are expecting
you to be specific. Say it normally! Don’t make a laughing stock of
you! On the one hand, they are saying that they are “merging with the
Customs Union process,” on the other, they are planning to initial an
association agreement with the EU. Who are they trying to fool? What’s
really bad here is not that the world may think badly of our prime
minister but that it may think badly of our country and people. Just
remember that last media leak about two Lithuanian diplomats talking
badly about us. It’s a shame! I am not very much worried to see some
political technologists, especially in Russia, starting badmouthing
about Armenia, but what concerns me most is that they are shaping
public opinions and political decisions in their countries. This is
not some Pandora’s box. This is a real global process.
Perhaps, the problem here is that Armenia is no longer a subject but
just an object of the global politics.
No. There still are lots of things that depend on us. We still have
a vote in international organizations and quite a big role in the
Caucasus and the Middle East. After all we still have a hand in
ensuring stability in the region.
Yes, you are right, but there are strong self-sufficient countries
and there are weak ones, who are not invited to negotiate serious
problems. We are vulnerable, economically feeble, political unstable,
heavily dependent on donors, credits, partners. We are very like a
ping-pong ball…
If we want to stop being one, we must start respecting the people’s
will and hopes. What do our people want after all? In my presidential
program in February I made it clear that such problems must be solved
through plebiscites. In the Czech Republic they kept mocking their
President Vaclav Havel for holding a referendum on almost each
problem. But today the Czech Republic is one of the most stable
nations in Europe. Once the Czechs voted against the Eurozone. Today
they are prospering and nobody regards them as an outlaw. For a long
time Latvia was reluctant to join the zone but today it wants to.
Montenegro has joined it, but its people is not willing to join the
European Union. The same is for Norway – they are part of the Eurozone
but are not an EU member.
But their difference from us is that they have high political culture
and real rather than feigned electoral processes.
We have to start this process one day, don’t we? If most of our people
opt for Europe, Russia will accept this – for you cannot go against
the people’s will. We will continue sharing a common secure area and
enjoying friendly relations. But if a majority votes for the Eurasian
Union, we will tell Europe, “thank you, we respect you, we will trade
with you, we will take part in your projects, but we will not be in
association with you because our people does not want this.”
The problem here is that our authorities are not willing to hold a
referendum. They think they are the people. But they are not. As a
result, they are facing a situation when they are afraid of taking
any steps.
But life is moving on. And what is right will happen sooner or later.
I can’t say what is right. I am just one of our citizens – even
though I have big political and administrative experience. But what
I can say for sure that a referendum will help us to make it clear
to the party we are afraid to offend that any solution is, first of
all, the people’s choice. And there will certainly be an adequate
response from our partners as they perfectly know that the people’s
choice cannot be aimed against the other party. Let’s be honest –
neither Europe nor Russia have so far said anything about denouncing
any agreements with us.
Yes, it’s not easy to wear the crown…
There is no use wearing it. We are not living in the times one could
use it. The key to such problems today is a referendum. This is what we
need for learning how to vote, for crystallizing our government system
and for being able to solve our problems – be they local or global.
That’s probably why our authorities are refusing to accept the very
idea of a referendum? Once they put a single question to a referendum,
they will create a bad precedent and may finally see the people
claiming more?
You are speaking ironically, but this is a very serious problem,
and I see nothing bad in it for either the authorities or the people.
Sometimes we are nonplused by much simpler problems. The political
activity of our people is growing. Some few years ago it was hard
to imagine that whole protest movements could be formed in Armenia
against a threat to some park or a raise in a public transport fare
or a monopoly over parking lots. So, despite the wish of some top
government officials to see politically active people leaving the
country, life is going on, the old generation is being replaced by
a new one, by people who are proving that they can be the masters
of their city, their country and their own fate. And the sooner our
authorities realize this, the sooner we will come out of the deadlocks
they are putting us in.
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