NO POLITICAL AGENDA IN ARMENIAN SOCIETY – EXPERT
18:28 03.09.13
In an interview with Tert.am, Armen Badalyan, an expert in election
and political technologies, spoke of Armenia’s position on joining the
European Union (EU) or Eurasian Union, lower degree of the Armenian
authorities’ independence in decision-making in Armenia’s international
relations, emigration, political agenda and other issues.
– Although the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) is officially
stating that Armenia will initial an association agreement with the
EU unless any special circumstances emerge, Armenia’s press has lately
made forecast that the association agreement will not be initialed.
Many link it with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s visit to Russia.
What’s your opinion?
– No one can now say if the association agreement will be initialed.
It will be clear on the day of initialing unless an earlier statement
is made that it will not be initialed. Now we can say that Armenia’s
authorities have come down to such a low level that Armenia’s press
writes that Armenia’s president goes to Moscow and may be prohibited
from initialing. Here we can hear the US ambassador stating that
Armenia’s foreign policy must be decided in Armenia rather than
anywhere else. This is evidence of a much lower level of Armenia’s
sovereignty.
– The Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) is a pro-Russian political force.
Yesterday, after a long interval, its leader strongly emphasized
Russia’s role.
– Now Armenia has a much more serious problem. People are emigrating.
According to estimates, about 200,000 people may emigrate this year,
which shows that our society is not any more forming a political
agenda nor is it willing to. So as we can see Armenia’s political
agenda and political figures’ statements are linked to the outside.
Your question implies that he is addressing “a message” to Russia,
as if he were saying that ‘we should be on good terms with Russians.’
There is no message saying ‘we are a pro-Russian force.’ Although the
PAP has ties with Yedinaya Rossiya party and is considered to be a
pro-Russian force, the concepts of ‘pro-Russian’ and ‘pro-Western’ have
been mixed so much that you cannot make out pro-Russian and pro-Western
forces. In many cases it is artificial discrimination. PAP Chairman
Gagik Tsarukyan just considers his party’s influence and believes
we should be on good terms with Russia. And linking his statement
to President Serzh Sargsyan’s visit to Moscow or thinking that his
statement may influence the Armenian-Russian presidential talks –
it is not so.
– Alexander Krylov, Chairman of the Moscow-based Union of Specialists
in Caucasian Studies, told a news website that no one is going to
ask Armenia to join the Eurasian Union. What do the recent responses
suggest?
– One thing should be realized: if Armenia accedes to the association
and free trade agreement, Russia is not going to just stand aside. As
you know Armenia is a member of the CIS free trade agreement and if,
at the same time, it accedes to the EU association and free trade
agreement, Russia will naturally abrogate its free trade agreement
with Russia. Because Armenia will become a corridor on this way of
transportation of European products to Russia, which will not be
welcomed by Russia. Psychologically, it is clear that Russia finds
it most difficult to protect a president for five years, and he will
eventually join the opposite trade union. After all, Russia can respond
in different ways. Specifically, it can create favorable conditions
for even larger-scale emigration from Armenia. In this case, Armenia,
which is a dying country, will fall into a coma. There are different
ways of punishing. Of course, Russia does not want Armenia to accede to
this document. Russia views it as extension of western influence as far
as its sphere of influence. I should say that relations with Ukraine
are much more important for Russia than its relations with Armenia,
whose economic potential is of 0.02 percent interest to Russia. And
Russia is exerting much stronger pressure on Ukraine. As to Armenia,
Russia is not pressing it at all. It is just warning that Armenia’s
future may not be what it wants.
– Political analysts voiced the opinion recently that, given the
fact that no great power can guarantee our security, as well as
our country’s geographical location, both Brussels and Moscow show
understanding of Armenia’s foreign policy orientations. Do you agree?
– Even Armenia’s population cannot guarantee Armenia’s security. In the
context of security, emigration is the gravest problem. So Armenia’s
joining the EU or the Customs Union is of no importance.
Initialing does not mean signing the association agreement later
and carrying out reforms. Take Georgia for example. When Mikheil
Saakashvili became Georgia’s president without singing the association
agreement, he carried out reforms in the country. If any country’s
authorities want to reform their country regardless of whether they
sign an association agreement with the EU or an agreement with the
Customs Union, they will implement reforms. I remember such talks
11-12 years ago, when Armenia was preparing for membership in the
Council of Europe.
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2013/09/03/armen-badalyan/