NAGORNO-KARABAKH FLARES UP: BREAKING THE IMPASSE URGENT
Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Aug 6 2014
LAMÄ°YA ADÄ°LGIZI
August 06, 2014, Wednesday
Four years after Georgia’s August war, which started with the Russian
occupation of the Georgian territories of Abkhazia and Ossetia, August
returned as a nightmare for the Caucasus, this time with another
battle between Armenians and Azerbaijanis over Nagorno-Karabakh that
has left scores of troops killed and wounded on both sides within
the last few days.
The Caucasus Mountains again became a battlefield in the early hours
of Aug. 1 when Armenian and Azerbaijani troops began shooting at
each other in a re-ignition of a conflict which began with the bloody
Nagorno-Karabakh War of the early 1990s. The incident left at least
15 Azerbaijani troops killed while Armenian forces lost five troops
during the exchange of fire.
The border skirmish, which once again took the lives of young Azeris
and Armenians, showed that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is not
“frozen” as it is often characterized internationally. Though it
has been largely forgotten outside the conflict zone, the conflict
remains unsettled, despite the 20 years that have passed. The OSCE
Minsk Group has thus far failed to find a peaceful resolution to the
conflict, as the temporary peace — although fragile — has allowed
the primary parties to continually put off a more substantive,
long-lasting peace settlement.
However, the recent incidents in Nagorno-Karabakh have shown that it
remains a hot spot with the power flare up again at any time, plunging
people’s lives back into chaos and disrupting regional security.
The renewed eruption of tensions has once again proven that Track I
diplomacy — official talks and political negotiations — to bring
permanent peace and reconciliation to Nagorno-Karabakh, and therefore
the wider region, has completely failed. Despite long-running peace
talks led by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
(OSCE) Minsk Group to settle the conflict, not only have no positive
results been produced so far, but the unsatisfactory status quo
that the situation has been in for more than 20 years might end up
exacerbating the tensions which have been simmering all along. A
shift in diplomatic strategy is imperative and urgent, as a lack of
trust prevails between the two nations, a fact that prevents them
from coming together and settling the years-long conflict peacefully.
What is the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
Consisting of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, the south Caucasus
can be said to have only geographical — rather than political —
meaning, given the lack of regional integration. The Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict is the central reason why the south Caucasus is one of the
world’s most volatile regions.
Nagorno-Karabakh has long had a mixed population of both Armenians
and Azerbaijanis. The conflict erupted into armed conflict after the
collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s as Nagorno-Karabakh,
the predominantly Armenian-populated enclave of Azerbaijan, sought to
secede from Azerbaijan under the prompting of Armenia. Escalating into
a four-year-long war between the two nations, which had for centuries
enjoyed a largely peaceful coexistence, Nagorno-Karabakh and eight
more adjacent districts were seized by Armenian armed forces. The
war resulted in the loss of 30,000 lives and ended when a truce was
brokered by Russia in 1994, although no permanent peace agreement
has been signed.
Since then, Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent regions have been under
the control of Armenia; no Azerbaijanis have been living there,
as they were forced from their homes during the war. Since then,
Azerbaijan has been trying to regain control of its lost territories,
enabling the return of ethnic Azerbaijanis to their lands.
Nagorno-Karabakh is the longest-running post-Soviet era conflict
and has continued to simmer despite the relative peace of the past
two decades, with snipers causing up to 30 deaths a year. Continued
deadly border skirmishes between the two sides have long threatened
a return to full-scaled war.
The issue is widely referred to by the international community as a
“frozen conflict” which has caused serious problems for the region
beyond the war casualties and destruction of the past. Hindering peace,
stability, economic development and social coexistence in the region,
the conflict is regularly citied as a threat to the energy security
of Europe, which has been looking to reduce its dependence on Russia,
especially after the Ukrainian crisis. As a rising energy power,
natural resources-rich Azerbaijan is the most viable alternative to
Russian energy. Whether frozen or forgotten, the “no war, no peace”
impasse in the region is a destabilizing factor for European energy
security.
Track II diplomacy
Both nations consider Nagorno-Karabakh to be an integral part of
their national identity. Although the political settlement of the
conflict is stalled and there has been no progress lately in the
negotiations, many people both in Armenia and in Azerbaijan are
hopeful for a breakthrough. However, the recent infringement of the
cease-fire and continuing deadly skirmishes have added a pinch of
frustration to their hopes.
Though a solution of the conflict appears intractable, with neither
side able ready to compromise, Track II diplomacy — meaning
people-to-people diplomacy — might be able to do just that.
Armenia and Azerbaijan do not currently maintain any diplomatic
relations, thus, no official communication is conducted between the
two nations. This results in misinformation on both sides, stoking
misunderstanding, fear, hatred and prejudice, exacerbating the
negative perceptions both Armenians and Azerbaijanis have of each
other. Government-controlled media on both sides play an outsized
role in fanning the flames of belligerence. Instead of diminishing
tensions and trying to manage the conflict and rebuild relations,
the media are deepening the division between the two estranged nations.
Media propaganda continued during the recent tension as well, leading
to confusion over different issues — from the figures of the killed
troops to misinformation about the start of the war — and also to
fears among the public that they are yet again on the brink of war.
Despite official casualty figures, the Armenian media reported that
25 Azeri troops were killed and 30 wounded in the violation of the
cease-fire, while Azerbaijani media also reported in response that more
than 70 Armenian troops were killed in response to separatist attacks.
Moreover, the exaggerated news and pictures about the situation
on both sides, including reports of Azerbaijan military units being
dispatched to the front line, lead Armenians to believe that Azerbaijan
is seizing the moment to recapture its lost territories; news from the
Armenian side saying that Nagorno-Karabakh is Armenia’s “historical”
territory and that by violating the ceasefire — although it has not
yet been determined which side violated the ceasefire — Azerbaijan is
presenting an immediate threat to existence of Armenians in the region
further stokes the fear of citizens based on media misrepresentation.
This once again shows that what is lacking in the region is trust
and confidence between the two nations.
A political settlement of the conflict is impossible without any common
understanding, trust and mutual confidence; a common willingness
and drive is needed from all actors. Civil society activists from
both sides are, with the support of the international community,
trying through meetings and workshops to establish platforms where
they can discuss their concerns and expectations, and thus introduce
alternative ideas for a solution to the conflict. But the developments
indicate that they are not satisfying for both countries.
The international community, including the US government, should be
interested in achieving a significant breakthrough in the conflict
despite its limited influence in the region compared to Russia,
whose leverage in the region could easily change the status quo,
but who prefers to use its dominance in the post-Soviet region for
manipulation and to strengthen its power.
James Warlick, an American diplomat and co-chair of the OSCE Minsk
Group, should not be satisfied with a simple Twitter post voicing
the organization’s concern about the unrest in the region. Stating
that “peace should be respected” will not bring peace between the
two conflict-torn nations. Determined steps should be put forward to
build trust and confidence between the people of both countries, as
it is only after that point that peace might easily enter the region.
Both sides do understand that Track II diplomacy is not an alternative
to Track I — a political solution of the conflict — but rather
a necessary supplement to the peaceful settlement, as peace will
not come with signatures from the two nations’ leaders. Trust and
confidence need to be established. The two sides have to learn to
trust each other so that they can live together again after they
reach a political solution, and the international community should
extend its efforts in this direction.
Without mutual understanding and trust between Armenians and
Azerbaijanis, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will remain unsolved even
if there is a political solution.
http://www.todayszaman.com/blogs/blog/lamiya-adilgizi/nagorno-karabakh-flares-up-breaking-the-impasse-urgent_354816.html