TIME COMES. AND TIME RUNS OUT
Friday, 08 August 2014 12:11
And only Azerbaijan remains a threat to peace
As is known, on July 23, in Vienna, the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen
issued a joint statement, in which they expressed their serious concern
about the growing tension in the Karabakh conflict zone. They urged
the parties to assume the commitment to avoid casualties and to make
every effort to defuse the tension and to adhere to the terms of the
ceasefire agreement.
Meanwhile, contrary to the hopes and expectations of the mediators,
less than a week later the situation in the Azerbaijani-Karabakh
conflict became extremely tense. The information by official structures
of the parties resembled military reports from the front line. In
fact, there are grounds for such estimates, as local clashes, with
the use of not only small arms and with human victims, took place in
different sections of the contact-line. Such sharp aggravation of the
situation both at the Line of Contact between the armed forces of the
NKR and Azerbaijan and at some sections of the Armenian-Azerbaijani
border prompted experts and political analysts to talk about the high
probability of resumption of a full-scale war.
I must say, a really explosive situation was developed, in connection
with which UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, the Ministries of
Foreign Affairs of Russia and France, the U.S. Department of State,
the European Union, the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, the OSCE Minsk
Group Co-Chairmen, and the NATO officials expressed their concern. In
general, their statements urged the parties to the Karabakh conflict to
respect the ceasefire and to refrain from violence, to take immediate
steps to reduce the tension and to resume the negotiations in order
to achieve the soonest and peaceful settlement of the issue.
Almost all the statements highlighted the idea that a military
solution to the conflict was excluded. Expressing the viewpoint of
the mediators, the American Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, James
Warlick, noted that “it is time to begin negotiations that can lead
to a peace agreement”. Alas, we think that “thanks” to the aggressive
policy of Azerbaijan, this time has gone, and gone for a long time.
The concern and anxiety of the international structures are quite
clear, but in this situation, their equal attitude to the parties to
the conflict is not quite clear. We believe that for the effective
stabilization of the situation in the region it is more logical to
identify the real culprit of the present pre-war situation and to
use appropriate international sanctions against them. The answer
to the question “Who is to blame?” lies in the answer to another,
no less important question “Who benefits from this?” Official Baku
represented by its MFA, in its familiar manner to put everything
upside down, hurried to accuse Armenia of the ceasefire violation
and of the escalation of tension. However, the facts undeniably prove
the contrary.
The chronological restoration of the events of late July-early August
at the contact-line testifies that it is Azerbaijan that has taken a
series of sabotage and intelligence operations, which were harshly
suppressed by the NKR Defense Army servicemen. The fact that the
losses of the Azerbaijani party, according to Armenia’s Minister of
Defense Seyran Ohanyan, are 8-10 times greater than the losses of
the Armenian forces convincingly indicates that the initiator of the
offensive actions is exactly the Azerbaijani party.
It is also noteworthy that even in Azerbaijan an opinion was expressed
among deputies of the local Parliament that “today, Armenia is mostly
focused on defensive and not offensive tactics”. As for Armenia and
the NKR, they do not absolutely need to escalate the situation. But,
the actions of Azerbaijan, which permanently threatens to unleash a
new war, just give the unambiguous answers to the notorious question
“Who benefits from this?”
It isn’t excluded that on the eve of the announced meeting of the
Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan scheduled for August 8-9 in Sochi,
the Baku authorities thus decided, according to the “tradition”, to
subject to blackmail both the international mediators and Armenia. They
apparently believe that by threatening to “unfreeze” the conflict
they will be able to create a favorable-for-them background for
negotiations in order to obtain political dividends.
Such a practice has been repeatedly used by Azerbaijan, but it
has not given the desired results. Second, the top leadership of
Azerbaijan has flaunted to increase its military potential for many
years, stating its readiness to start a new war. Surely, official Baku
realizes the failure and the impossibility to realize such statements,
its non-readiness for a large-scale war (by the way, this opinion
is shared by most experts), so, in order to reinforce its militant
rhetoric with concrete actions, it resorts to sabotage and adventurous
actions. But, as we see, even the subversive actions end in failure
for it, confirming that the allegations of Azerbaijan on the power
of its army are contrived. The following fact cannot either be ignored.
Perhaps, amid the acute crisis in Ukraine, the Azerbaijani authorities,
given the unconditional Western support for the actions of official
Kiev, count on similar support for its policy towards Artsakh. But,
we believe that Baku has miscalculated. The West, which is extremely
interested in the smooth transportation of Azerbaijani energy resources
to Europe, will not allow Azerbaijan to jeopardize its interests.
Leonid MARTIROSSIAN
Editor-in-Chief of Azat Artsakh newspaper
http://artsakhtert.com/eng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1545:-time-comes-and-time-runs-out&catid=3:all&Itemid=4