Farewell Puzzle By Stefan Fule
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments – 15 September 2014, 14:04
Unian.net informed that Commissioner Stefan Fule has announces it is
time to set up formal relations between the EU and the Eurasian
Economic Union and create a Free Trade Area. His statement had been
preceded by another interesting event. The EU and Ukraine agreed to
postpone the implementation of DCFTA. It is an EU-Russia agreement
rather than an EU-Ukraine agreement which was achieved in the recent
discussion on the crisis in Ukraine.
Some controversy is seen. On the one hand, the EU joins the United
States to toughen sanctions against Russia and, on the other hand,
agrees to slow down the implementation of the Association Agreement,
which is, in fact, Russia’s demand. Russia threatened Ukraine that
implementation of DCFTA will be followed by restrictions on imports of
Ukrainian products to Russia.
DCFTA postponement seems to be the response to those threats. At the
same time, Fule’s statement seems to indicate “legitimization” of
Russian threats. In fact, Fule offers the European Union to recognize
the Eurasian Union and interact, which will, for its part, legitimize
Russia’s actions against Ukraine. After all, Putin himself suggested
creating a unified economic area from Lisbon to Vladivostok.
Fule seems to be speaking about this. He may be driven by the fact
that soon Fule will leave his office. The composition of the EU
commission will be changed, and Fule is not in the new commission
introduced by the newly-elected president of the European Commission
Jean Claude Junker. The composition of the new Commission has already
been approved. Therefore, it is difficult to tell to what extent
Fule’s statement expresses the moods of the European Union and whether
it is the personal opinion of the leaving commissioner.
It should not be ruled out that the commissioner is already
considering his future role in Europe and is therefore trying to make
an attractive proposal to Russia and act as the representative of the
Russian lobby to Europe. After all, there is such practice among
European political personalities. Gerhardt Schroder who was the
chancellor of the European great power actually became a Gazprom staff
after leaving his office. Hence, there is nothing strange about this.
At least, for the time being it is not understood what Fule is
speaking about in terms of content and mechanism. What interaction
with the Eurasian Union is meant when the members of the Eurasian
State have not managed to specify and clarify relations between their
states, and mutual claims and disagreement constantly occurs between
them?
On the other hand, it is not ruled out that by recognizing the
Eurasian Union and setting up formal interaction the European Union
expects to deepen the crisis and controversies with the Eurasian
Union. The point is that interaction with the European Union will
result in a negotiation process where the members of the union that
has not formed yet will start competing for getting the maximum from
the relations with the European Union, which may be another apple of
discord among them. It is not ruled out that Fule’s proposal is based
on the following plan: the EU sets up interaction with the Eurasian
Economic Union and thereby slows down the full formation of this body
and prevents the formation of Putin’s empire.
Perhaps this is the EU’s expectation from a concession regarding
Ukraine, trying to cause deep controversies and a new object of
competition among the members of the Eurasian Economic Union.
At the same time, there is no doubt that Russia is trying to play
according to the controversies within the European Union, using the
circumstance of certain clash of interests among several countries. It
is not a secret the leaders of the European Union have significant
controversies, especially the United Kingdom and Germany which have
formed camps that are not strong but have clear-cut positions.
OF course, the controversies inside the Eurasian Union and those
inside the European Union differ in nature and are not similar but it
is beyond doubt that both expect to use the other’s controversies for
a longer time and more efficiently.
And, in this case, the core issue is the economic and political
isolation of Russia because Western controversies refer to the
dynamics and extent of isolation, not the being or not being of the
process.