The Local, France
Oct 26 2014
France to host Karabakh talks
French President Francois Hollande hosts leaders from Armenia and
Azerbaijan Monday as Europe makes a fresh push to end the festering
conflict over Nagorny Karabakh.
Germany’s Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier visited both
countries last week after a sharp escalation in violence over the
disputed region in recent months as war raged in Ukraine.
Although few expect a breakthrough after more than two decades of
bloodshed, it is “important to bring the two presidents together, to
call on them to work together, to get back to the table to reduce
tensions,” a French diplomatic source said ahead of the summit.
Armenian separatists backed by Yerevan seized the mountainous region,
which is mainly inhabited by ethnic Armenians, from Azerbaijan in a
war in the 1990s that left some 30,000 people dead.
Despite years of internationally mediated negotiations since a 1994
ceasefire, the two sides have not yet signed a final peace deal on
Karabakh, still internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan.
Oil-rich Baku, whose military spending exceeds Armenia’s entire state
budget, has threatened to take back the region by force if
negotiations do not yield results.
Armenia — heavily armed by Russia — says it could crush any offensive.
Last August saw a dramatic surge in violence across the countries’
border and along the Karabakh frontline as more than 20 troops died in
the deadliest clashes since the ceasefire.
Tensions between Azerbaijan and Moscow-allied Armenia have escalated
as Russia confronts the West over Ukraine, where government forces are
battling pro-Russian separatists.
“What happened in Ukraine has had a direct impact” on the conflict, a
source in Hollande’s entourage said, adding that Russia’s annexation
of Crimea “exacerbated the climate”.
Azerbaijani analysts say an increasingly assertive Russia is pursuing
a divide-and-rule policy and has an interest in keeping the Karabakh
conflict in a frozen state to retain its influence over its Soviet-era
vassal Caucasian states.
“Moscow holds the keys to the conflict’s solution, but is
intentionally not using its levers as it has an interest in keeping
the status quo, in maintaining its influence over Azerbaijan and,
especially, Armenia,” Shahin Abbasov, an independent Azerbaijani
analyst, told AFP.
Abbasov said that by hosting talks in Paris, Hollande “aims at
depriving (Russian President Vladimir) Putin of his role as an
exclusive arbiter” in the conflict.
A French diplomat admitted that Hollande will face an uphill battle in
his efforts to facilitate the Armenian-Azerbaijani dialogue.
“It would be extremely surprising to have concrete progress. But there
is a will from President Hollande to make progress with both parties,
to have a dialogue,” the diplomat said.
Hollande will hold separate meetings with Azerbaijani President Ilham
Aliyev and Armenia’s Serzh Sarkisian.
During his talks with Azerbaijan’s strongman Hollande will also have
to deal with Baku’s poor human rights record.
Rights groups say there are dozens of political prisoners in the
tightly-controlled Caspian Sea country and the government has clamped
down on opponents since Aliyev’s re-election to a third term last
year.
Prominent rights activist Leyla Yunus and her husband Arif have been
held and accused of spying for Armenia — charges denounced by the
couple and Human Rights Watch as “bogus”.
The ailing 57-year-old activist’s three-month pre-trial detention was
extended by four months on Friday, despite protests from France and
the United States.
The couple’s daughter, Dinara Yunusova, has urged Hollande to ask
Aliyev to free her parents.
“I would like to ask President Hollande to ask President Aliyev to
free my parents and all other pro-democracy activists still in prison
in Azerbaijan,” she told AFP.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20141026/france-hosts-karabakh-talks-as-russia-plays-divide-and-rule