news.az, Azerbaijan
Nov 26 2011
‘Armenian ordinary residents suffer from unwise policy of their elite’
Sat 26 November 2011 07:37 GMT | 9:37 Local Time
News.Az interviews Milli Majlis deputy, political scientist Rasim Musabayov.
International rating agency Moody’s Investors Service has reduced the
forecast of Armenia from stable to negative. How will the economic
problems of Armenia affect the internal political situation in this
country?
Decreased country rating of Armenia means that authorities and banks
of this country should not hope for any huge borrowings from
international financial markets. The time of paying old debts is near,
while Armenia has nothing to pay for them. It will be difficult to
restructure the debts. Consequently, the authorities will reduce the
extremely low payments and take money to pay debts from the poor
Armenian budget. I do not believe that the working government will
dare to press on oligarchs and seize their revenues before elections.
In such a situation the only way out for Serzh Sargsyan is to play the
nationalistic card and raise military hysteria. The team will likely
stake on the slogan: Armenia should tighten the belt, accept
difficulties to keep occupied lands’. Armenian military and criminal
elite can take any provocative action to make it seem more persuasive.
It is still unclear whether the National Congress headed by former
president Levon Ter-Petrosyan dare to raise the issue of war and
peace, the need to disavow the unrealistic plans of territorial
invasions and adoption of compromises in Karabakh settlement amid run
for elections. It is unclear whether he will be understood among
Armenian voters.
Personally, Serzh Sargsyan can take a cautious position, bringing the
pal of Kocharyan and dashnaks to the foreground as opponents to Levon
Ter-Petrosyan. Depending on the response of the population, Sargsyan
will build its own presidential campaign after parliamentary
elections.
It is clear that Armenia is to have a strained and unclear political
year, complicated with the inevitable worsening of socioeconomic
situation.
Deputy of the National Assembly of Armenia from the Republican Party
of Armenia Ayk Sanosyan was outraged with the fact that the Armenian
budget does not envisage any significant spending to support the
predominantly Armenian province of Georgia-Javakheti. How can you
comment on this statement and how it fits the logic of upcoming
economic problems of Armenia?
This example illustrates what I have already said. Instead of
searching solutions to sharp socioeconomic and financial problems,
Armenian politicians rival in playing the nationalistic card.
There is no money for essential things but they make absurd and
provocative proposals such as for example the recently voiced proposal
in Armenia to release criminals sentenced to long terms in prison for
grave crimes in exchange for readiness to settle in the occupied lands
of Azerbaijan with their families. We will likely face new initiatives
of this kind.
Meanwhile, the fourth congress of Armenians of `Western Armenia’
starts in Paris on 25 November. It is to last for three days. The main
issue on the agenda is to create the parliament of `Western Armenia’.
How can you comment on the very fact of the congress and speculations
on Western Armenia issue?
This is an old idea. It is attempted to actualize before the
anniversary of the so-called `genocide of 1915′. The aim of the mark
the role of Armenia as a party organizing international pressure on
Turkey and set as this not the amorphous diaspora (it contains many
people who left Armenia for economic reasons) but a pseudopolitical
structure in a form of a self-appointed parliament of `Western
Armenia’. It is difficult to mislead anything by these tricks. But
Armenians are masters in historical and political mystifications. If
this does not work, they will make up anything else.
Turkish FM Ahmet Davutoglu stated Turkey’s readiness to form a joint
commission to study events of 1915. Official Yerevan, as expected,
rejected the proposal, stating in the face of Edward Nalbandian that
the proposal of the Turkish Foreign Ministry is the attempt to
question the fact of recognition of the so-called `genocide’ by
countries and international organizations. How can you comment on the
position of official Yerevan?
Nalbandian and his patron Sargsyan have been harping on for long. But
the United States and European countries treat Ankara’s position with
understanding.
In conclusion, is it possible to say that it was the Armenian
diaspora’s stance which led Armenia to its current pitiful state?
Economy and finances set the limits of irrational policy. Political
games are limited to economy, which revenges seriously to those who
ignore its imperatives. Those who cultivate `historical hatred and
revenge’ instead of peace and cooperation with neighbors make
financially and demographically insufficient claims, which have no
legal grounds. The ordinary citizens of Armenia suffer from such an
unwise policy. They need to listen to the rare voices of reasonable
Armenian politicians and intellectuals. But I can hardly believe that
they will do so.
Akper Hasanov
News.Az