Author: nina hovnanian

IF WAR IS TO START TOMORROW
Igor Muradyan

Story from Lragir.am News:

Published: 13:32:22 – 19/01/2012

In fact, in the past three or four years Armenia has taken important
steps to form an analytic community. The complete understanding of the
necessary format of the given process will take long but the current
events in the Near East and related to Iran led Armenian analysts
to the understanding of certain typical conditions of the unfolding
regional processes.

It should be noted that the reaction of Armenia to these events is
adequate, and the society is ready to accept possible challenges
without any specific worry and with readiness to insist on their own
national interests. In addition, Armenia accepted this situation as
a game of great interest, since serious changes await the Near East
and the adjacent regions and Armenia gets a chance to a geopolitical
breakthrough.

Russia is taking measures to prepare for possible developments and is
likely to hold unprecedented military training in the region of the
Caucasus. Most probably, it will be accompanied with strengthening of
military groups in Russia on the strategic southern direction. Armenia
must not keep behind and must prepare its military force. It may
be possible to destroy a considerable part, if not the whole of
the armaments of Azerbaijan, including the air force, artillery and
armored cars, as well as important infrastructures and the oil and
gas facilities in case information on the respective intentions of
Azerbaijan are received.

No doubt if Azerbaijan supports the sanctions on Iran, its territory
will be considered analogically to the Strait of Hormuz. No doubt
Azerbaijan’s position will follow that of Turkey, while Turkey is
trying to balance between Iran and the United States, that is,
it will support sanctions but will hardly become engaged in the
military actions.

However, military actions against Iran are the least possible
scenario. First of all, it is necessary to understand that the United
States will not make a decision outside NATO, and their partners in
NATO are not interested in such a turn, which will lead to even greater
doubts in Washington. Presently, Turkey is aware of the intentions
of the United States and understands that neither the United States,
nor Europe is interested in war on Syria or Iran. The scenario on the
possibility that third countries, namely Israel, may launch a war is
bullshit, and such scenarios are used for the sake of propaganda. Now
Turkey does not intend to push Azerbaijan to war, which may lead to the
necessity for its interference. Turkey did not dare to launch military
actions against Syria and will not, considering the South Caucasus,
if Azerbaijan does not suffer a military catastrophe. However, can
Turkey initiate an Armenian-Azerbaijani war if Russia or the United
States are interested in a war in the region?

Iran is at the center of regional focus but Iran is viewed by the
Americans as an important factor for setting up a new geopolitical
configuration in the region and the neighboring regions. The Iranian
factor may lead to reformatting in the area of the Persian Gulf, Iraq,
Eastern Mediterranean and the areas populated with Kurds, touching upon
the territory of Turkey as well. Analogically, it may happen in the
South Caucasus where a favorable situation has occurred for the balance
of forces and limitation of the expansion of Russia, as well as Turkey.

For already a number of years the Americans have showed no interest
in the Karabakh issue and treat this situation like a reserve for
their regional policy. Russia was interested in war between Armenia
and Azerbaijan in the period when it was weak in the region. Now that
Russia continues its efforts to imitate the settlement of the Karabakh
issue, it is not interested in war. The United States are interested
in a war because the war would enable their immediate presence in the
South Caucasus, unfolding the “third force”. The Russian-Georgian war
did not enable the Americans to fulfill this plan, especially that
Turkey and Russia appeared to have similar positions. Now that Turkey
has accepted the conditions of the United States for agreed action, in
an effort to demonstrate independence, the breakthrough of the United
States in the South Caucasus will pass in more favorable circumstances.

In this scenario, the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan are
probable, and the United States will be interested in utter military
and political defeat of Azerbaijan and deployment of the military
contingent of NATO in the region. The United States needs total defeat
of Azerbaijan because it will enable it to fulfill the policy of
double control of the South Caucasus, in regard to Turkey and Russia.

It is possible that I am mistaken, I would like to know the opinion
and evaluation of colleagues.

RULING IN DINK CASE AND THE GOVERNMENT

Today’s Zaman
Jan 19 2012
Turkey

When the court sentenced Yasin Hayal, a prime suspect in the killing of
Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink, for instigating the commission
of a murder while acquitting other suspects in the case of involvement
in any kind of organization behind the 2007 murder of Dink, the late
editor-in-chief of the Turkish-Armenian weekly Agos, it wounded the
public’s sense of justice, resulting in harsh criticism.

Turkish columnists also expressed how upset the ruling made them and
sought answers as to whether it is right to criticize the government
for the court ruling.

Milliyet columnist Derya Sazak says that by saying, “There is no
organization behind the murder; it is just a murder committed by some
youngsters who felt like killing an Armenian,” the court actually
proves that there is an organization behind the murder and even
behind the ruling. Otherwise, the reason behind such a ruling must
be that the court ignored evidence that indicates the existence of
a relationship between Ergenekon — a clandestine gang accused of
plotting to overthrow the government — and the Dink murder. Sazak
underlines the inconsistency of the judiciary by saying: “We are
even trying journalist Nedim Å~^ener, who worked hard to find the
perpetrators of the Dink murder, for aiding and abetting the Ergenekon
terror network and sending a former chief of General Staff [Ä°lker
BaÅ~_bug] to jail for establishing an anti-government organization;
but, we acquit Erhan Tuncel, the instigator of Dink’s murder. It is
as absurd as giving him an award for the murder,” adding that all of
this shows that the government has done badly with this incident.

“Considering the independence of the judiciary, why do we direct our
criticism at the government,” Sabah’s Nazlı Ilıcak asks. First,
the government should have questioned why the records requested from
the Telecommunications Directorate (TÄ°B) were sent so late. Though
some of the officers in the gendarmerie and police department were
investigated for negligence, they have not been investigated for
committing an “intentional act.” The government was also blamed
for promoting Muammer Guler — then-Ä°stanbul governor against whom
the Dink family submitted a criminal complaint claiming that Guler
neglected his duty and ignored National Intelligence Organization
(MÄ°T) officials who threatened Dink — to Justice and Development
Party (AK Party) deputy. Ilıcak believes Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan’s is sincere in his hope to provide full clarification with
regard to the murder, but she also thinks that sufficient efforts to
discover the plot behind the murder were not taken. On the other hand,
Hurriyet’s Taha Akyol says we should criticize the judiciary over its
ruling in the Dink murder. However, we should also question the justice
of the statement: “Dink’s murderer is the state.” What has been done
to Dink is brutal and despicable and our frustration is right and even
necessary. Yet, when we say “the state made a massacre like the one in
1915,” it means that we have finished talking about law and are having
a political debate over Dink. This will bring nothing good and just,
says Akyol.

TURKISH FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE WELCOMES FRENCH COMMITTEE’S DECISION

Anadolu Agency
Jan 19 2012
Turkey

Turkish Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee welcomed the decision
of a French parliamentary committee which approved an amendment that
might avert a debate at the Senate floor on a bill making it a crime
to deny Armenian allegations on the Ottoman era incidents of 1915.

Releasing a statement, the committee said that it expected the French
Senate to act with the same common sense while voting the bill.

A committee with the French parliament approved on Wednesday an
amendment that may avert a debate at the Senate floor on a bill
which makes it a crime to deny Armenian allegations on the Ottoman
era incidents of 1915.

The bill is set to come to the Senate floor next Monday but French
Senate members could vote to uphold the Legislations Committee’s
decision and drop the bill off the agenda without debating it.

The bill, which got the approval of the lower house of the French
parliament, makes denial of Ottoman era incidents of 1915 punishable
in France with a prison term of one year and a fine of 45,000 euro.

A similar bill — proposed by the Socialist Party — was approved in
2006 by the lower house but the Senate rejected to debate the bill
last May when it upheld the committee’s decision back then.

HRANT DINK MURDERED AGAIN
By Mehmet Ali Birand

Hurriyet
Jan 19 2012
Turkey

There are some verdicts that make you say, “Well, they have got
their deserts.” There are some verdicts that make you say, “Wow,
this is not happening.”

With all due respect to our judiciary, everyone has seen what kind
of reaction the verdict on the Hrant Dink case has received. The cry
echoing from the public should be taken into consideration.

The judiciary has rejected the claim that this murder was planned and
executed by a group. It seems that two children playing cards once
said to each other, “Come on, let’s go to Istanbul and kill this
Armenian.” They wandered around and when they came across Hrant in
front of Agos newspaper one of them pulled the trigger.

What a pity.

The verdict that the court reached, I am sure, is even being laughed
at by the crows.

How could they not? Wasn’t it understood before and during the case
that the state knew that Hrant was going to be killed?

The preparations, the place where the gun was bought, the place
where shooting practice was done, who the possible candidates to
pull the trigger were and who the instigator was – the gendarmerie,
directors of security departments, even the governor knew. They even
warned Hrant. But they did not protect him.

When the same judiciary that arrests and drags people through the
mud for months because they have hung a poster, or stigmatizes as
terror organizations those protests where three people gather, all of
a sudden, decides that there was no organization in the Hrant murder,
what can you say?

This verdict can only be changed by the Supreme Court of Appeals.

The state should also start acting. The state must start an
investigation for those civil servants who have sheltered the
criminals, who have not fulfilled their responsibilities and who had
a share in the murder of Hrant Dink.

Hrant Dink’s case should not be left unsolved. Hrant did not deserve
this.

Or do we deem this treatment suitable for him because he is an
Armenian?

Is Turkey US’ controller in the region?

The Global Relations Forum (GIF) was formed two years ago in 2009. It
is a well-regarded think tank made up of political, business, science
and art circles. Most importantly, their reports are not prepared on
ideological basis; they have a completely impartial approach.

Their latest report was prepared under the co-presidency of Fusun
Turkmen and Yavuz Canevi, with Gozde Kucuk as project director and
with experts on the subject such as Hanzade Boyner, Gokhan Cetinsaya,
Memduh Karakullukcu, Sonmez Koksal, Umran S. Inan, Sami Kohen and
Ozdem Sanberk. Its topic is Turkish-American relations and it studies
developments past and present.

I recommend this report because it is indefinite where the region
is heading. Total confusion is experienced. The Arab Spring has
disappeared. A harsh winter has replaced it. The United States has
left Iraq. Iran has an increased appetite. It looks like Bashar
al-Assad has reinforced his position in Syria.

The only country that can lead a stable life is Turkey.

During the meeting at which the report was publicized, many
striking impressions were shared. Primary among these was the recent
warm approach of Washington toward Turkey and the fact that this
relationship has developed into its most positive form of late.

The question is whether Turkey wishes to be molded into becoming the
U.S.’ new supervisor, or controller, in the region.

You can find GIF and the report in question at

AZERBAIJANI FOREIGN MINISTRY EXPRESSES ITS CONCERN TO FRENCH AMBASSADOR OVER “ARMENIAN GENOCIDE” BILL

Trend
Jan 19 2012
Azerbaijan

The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry called in French Ambassador Gabriel
Keller who met with Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Khalaf
Khalafov, the Ministry said on Thursday.

The ambassador was informed that French Senate’s consideration of the
bill criminalizing the denial of the so-called “Armenian genocide”
scheduled for Jan.23 raises Azerbaijan’s serious concern and adoption
of this bill may negatively affect regional processes.

The ambassador noted he supports the settlement of the
Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict within the territorial
integrity of Azerbaijan. The ambassador also said he will inform the
French government on Azerbaijan’s position in this issue.

Lower Chamber of the French Parliament adopted a bill criminalizing
the denial of the so-called “Armenian genocide”.

Some 45 out of 577 French MPs participated in the voting, while 38
voted for and seven voted against the adoption of the bill.

The bill demands about a year’s imprisonment and a fine worth 45,000
euros for denial of the so-called “Armenian genocide”.

In response to this decision Turkey announced that it freezes all
diplomatic relations with France.

MPs from the French President’s “Union for Popular Movement” (UMP)
party which has the parliamentary majority, proposed the bill which
aims at criminalising denial of the so-called “Armenian genocide” to
the legislative committee of the National Assembly in early December.

Armenia and the Armenian lobby claim that the predecessor of the Turkey
– Ottoman Empire had committed the 1915 genocide against the Armenians
living in Anadolu, and achieved recognition of the “Armenian Genocide”
by the parliaments of several countries.

TURKEY REMEMBERS SLAIN JOURNALIST

UPI United Press International

Jan 19 2012

ISTANBUL, Turkey, Jan. 19 (UPI) — Thousands of people gathered in
Istanbul, Turkey, Thursday to commemorate the five-year anniversary
of the death of Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink.

Dink was gunned down outside of the Armenian language Agos newspaper’s
office Jan. 19, 2007.

A 17-year-old Turkish ultra nationalist soccer player, Ogun Samast,
was found with the murder weapon, and later convicted of the killing,
CNN reported.

An estimated 40,000 people marched from Taksim Square to Agos’ office,
the Today’s Zaman reported.

The Dink family and human rights activists have spoken out against
a Tuesday acquittal of 19 suspected accomplices in the murder.

The suspected accomplices were charged with being members of a
terrorist organization that plotted the assassination.

“We want an end to this shame,” Karin Karakasli, a writer and
journalist in Turkey’s Armenian community, said Thursday. “They are
telling us that the [case] file has been closed. The Dink case is
not a file that can be closed. The Dink case is a wound.”

However, the trial’s presiding judge, Rustem Eryilmaz, said there was
not sufficient evidence to link an illegal organization to the murder.

“We acquitted the suspects of organized crime charges. This ruling
does not mean that there was no organization involved. This means
that there was not enough evidence to prove the actions of this
organization,” Eryilmaz said Thursday.

TENS OF THOUSANDS COMMEMORATE MURDERED ARMENIAN JOURNALIST

Monsters & Critics

Jan 19 2012

Istanbul – Tens of thousands of Turks marched through central Istanbul
on Thursday to commemorate Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant-Dink,
who was gunned down outside his office five years ago.

Demonstrators marched from Istanbul’s Taksim Square two kilometers to
Dink’s former office, carrying placards demanding justice for the slain
journalist and chanting ‘We are all Hrant Dink, we are all Armenian.’

Dink is believed to have been killed for publishing articles describing
the massacre of Armenians at the end of the Ottoman Empire as genocide,
a highly contentious issue in Turkey.

As well as commemorating his life, the participants were also
protesting against the legal process that followed.

Two men were convicted for his murder: Ogun Samast, who received a
23-years prison sentence for shooting Dink, and Yasin Hayal, who was
jailed for life for having incited the killing.

But judges two days ago acquitted 17 others of being members of an
unnamed terrorist group which had allegedly conspired to kill him.

That ruling has caused considerable controversy in Turkey, where
lawyers for Dink’s family and human rights groups have long alleged
that the murder had been planned by a shady right wing terror group
with links to state officials.

Politicians from across the political spectrum have expressed
their unease with the verdict, with Justice Minister Sadullah Ergin
announcing within hours that the legal process has not ended and will
be continued by Turkey’s supreme court.

Speaking to reporters, Turkish President Abdullah Gul warned that
Turkey would be judged by the outcome of the case.

‘The case must be concluded in a just and transparent manner in line
with our laws – this is an important test,’ he warned.

Interviewed on Turkey’s Kanal D TV channel, Turkish Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his unease both with the verdict and
the five years taken to reach it.

‘This is very, very different from (the result) we expected,’ he said

Tellingly, Rustem Eryilmaz, the judge who presided over the latest
hearing and who was responsible for acquitting the 17 alleged
conspirators, expressed his dissatisfaction with the verdict in an
interview with Turkish daily Vatan.

Pointing to the fact that Dink’s murder was clearly well organized,
he expressed regret that the court had been unable to shed more light
on what had been behind the murder for lack of evidence.

TURKISH-ARMENIANS MARCH TO REMEMBER SLAIN JOURNALIST

Glendale News Press
,0,7373890.story
Jan 19 2012
CA

An estimated 20,000 people have marched in Istanbul to mark five years
since the murder of prominent Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink,
the BBC reported.

Some protesters were angry over verdicts delivered this week in
the latest trial of people linked to his killing, according to the
newspaper. Three suspects were jailed but allegations were eventually
dropped.

Dink’s actual killer, Ogun Samast, was jailed earlier for 22 years.

The journalist had angered Turkish nationalists by describing the
mass killing of Armenians a century ago as genocide, and was fatally
shot outside the Istanbul offices of his Turkish-Armenian newspaper.

On Tuesday, a judge sentenced one man to life imprisonment for
incitement to murder Dink, and two others were given 12 years in
prison.

However, all three men, along with 16 other defendants, were acquitted
of charges that they were members of the criminal organization link
to Dink’s murder.

The prosecutor said he would appeal the judge’s decision, and
emphasized there was sufficient evidence to support that murder had
premeditated.

Between 1915 and 1923, 1.5 million Armenians died at the hands of
the Ottoman Empire. Turkey disputes the genocide label, saying the
deaths were caused by civil war and other factors.

RUSSIA TO OPPOSE WAR AGAINST IRAN
By Fred Weir

Gulf News
Jan 19 2012
UAE

Kremlin orders the military to prepare for any possible spillover,
reports say

7.Moscow: As tensions ratchet up in the Gulf, the Kremlin is signalling
that it will use all its diplomatic influence to oppose war and,
according to a leading Moscow newspaper, has ordered the military to
prepare for any possible spillover from a conflict between Iran and
the US into the sensitive post-Soviet Caucasus region.

Russia will block any further sanctions against Iran in the UN
Security Council, a Foreign Ministry official said yesterday,
because it believes rising tensions could trigger a conflict that
would destabilise the wider region. Last week Russian deputy prime
minister and former ambassador to Nato Dmitry Rogozin warned that any
Western attack on Iran would constitute “a direct threat to [Russian]
national security”.

The independent Moscow daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported on Monday
that this year’s annual military exercises in Russia’s south, Kavkaz
2012, will be much larger than usual and organised around the premise
of a war that begins with an attack on Iran but spreads to neighbouring
Armenia and Azerbaijan, and draws Russia into a regional maelstrom.

Manoeuvres

The newspaper said the war games, which are usually confined to
Russian territory, might this year include manoeuvres in the breakaway
Georgian statelets of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and perhaps also
in Russian-allied Armenia.

“We believe that sanctions relative to Iran have lost their
usefulness,” Gennady Gatilov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, told a
Moscow press conference yesterday. “We will oppose any new resolution
[on UN sanctions against Iran]….

“Russia would consider any use of force against the territory of Iran
unacceptable. That would make the situation even more critical….

Unfortunately, many [Western] government leaders are not restraining
themselves and are speaking openly about a military strike against
Iran,” Gatilov added.

Atomic weapons

A harsh sanctions regime, signed into law by US President Barack Obama
two weeks ago, would target Iran’s ability to earn cash through oil
exports by penalising Western companies who clear payments through
Iran’s central bank. The European Union could enact its own sanctions
against Iranian oil exports as early as next week.

Russian experts say that Moscow opposes Iran’s alleged drive for
atomic weapons, but may fear the consequences of a military strike
aimed at curbing the country’s nuclear programme more.

“War in Iran could create a new situation in the wider Caucasus and
the Caspian Basin, which would a very serious challenge to Russia,”
says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a leading
Moscow-based foreign policy journal. “There is a high degree of
uncertainty about what would happen in neighbouring regions. How
would it affect the situation around Nagorno Karabakh, for instance?”

Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a savage war in the 1990s over the
tiny Armenian-populated enclave of Nagorno Karabakh, which ended with
Armenia annexing the territory and some surrounding regions.

– Christian Science Monitor

FRENCH PANEL REJECTS ARMENIA GENOCIDE BILL

Aljazeera.com

Jan 19 2012
Qatar

Senate commission rejects bill to make it illegal to deny mass killing
of Armenians by Ottoman Turks in 1915 to 1916.

A French Senate committee has rejected a bill to make it illegal to
deny that mass killing of Armenians by Ottoman Turks nearly a century
ago amounted to genocide.

The Senate’s Commission of Laws on Wednesday voted 23 to nine, with
eight abstentions, that such a bill could violate constitutional
protections, including freedom of speech.

“We consider that if this law was passed, there would be a large risk
of it being unconstitutional,” Jean-Pierre Sueur, the commission head,
said. “We cannot write history with laws. Freedom of expression must
be respected.”

Despite the committee’s rejection, the bill is expected to be passed
in the Senate’s final vote on Monday, in which most senators opposed
to the legislation are expected to abstain.

The proposed legislation has soured relations between Paris and
Ankara, with Turkey imposing symbolic sanctions and Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan accusing the French of ‘genocide’ during France’s
132-year colonial rule in Algeria.

“Ankara welcomes the decision by the Laws Commission at the
Senate which clearly shows its position by saying that this bill is
unconstitutional,” Engin Solakoglu, spokesman at the Turkish embassy
in Paris, told the AFP news agency.

‘Sympathy for suffering’

In a statement, the commission said: “There was a genocide, and the
commission wants to express its infinite respect for the Armenian
people, and the terrible experiences that they have endured”.

But the panel also expressed doubts about “the legitimacy of the
intervention of the legislature in the field of history” and suggested
that commemorations or legislative resolutions might be a better way
to express sympathy for the suffering than laws to criminalise some
types of speech.

France formally recognised the 1915 to 1916 killings as genocide in
2001, but provided no penalty for denying it.

The proposed law would set punishment of up to one year in prison and
a fine of up to $59,000 for those who deny or ‘outrageously minimise”
the killings – placing such denial on par with those of the Holocaust.

France is home to an estimated 500,000 people of Armenian origin.

Hundreds of thousands of Armenians died when the Ottoman Turks deported
them from eastern Anatolia to the Syrian desert and elsewhere in 1915
to 1916. They were killed or died from starvation or disease.

Armenians say 1.5 million died. Turkey estimates the total to be
300,000.

The dispute about whether it was genocide centres on the degree to
which the killings were orchestrated.

Turkey admits atrocities were committed but argue that there was no
systematic attempt to destroy the Christian Armenian people.

Even if the Senate – the upper house of parliament – was to reject
the bill, the more powerful lower house – the National Assembly –
could resurrect the bill and try again.