PUNDIT SEES NABUCCO PIPELINE AS RESPONSE TO RUSSIAN USE OF ENERGY AS "WEAPON"
Yezhednevnyy Zhurnal website
July 16 2009
Russia
This topic could relate only to the economy. But it relates to
politics.
It is much broader than the event itself.
In Ankara, the representatives of five of the six countries involved
in the Nabucco project signed an inter-governmental agreement on the
supply of natural gas from the Caspian Basin to Europe, bypassing
Russia. These countries were: Austria, Hungary, Turkey, Bulgaria and
Romania. Germany did not take part in the signing since it is not
a transit country, but it will be involved. Representatives of 20
countries were present, as were the head of the European Commission
Jose Manuel Barroso, the Iraqi prime minister, the American special
envoy for Eurasian energy Richard Morningstar, and Georgian President
Enhanced Coverage LinkingGeorgian President -Search using: Biographies
Plus News News, Most Recent 60 Days Mikheil Saakashvili.Enhanced
Coverage LinkingMikheil Saakashvili. -Search using: Biographies Plus
News News, Most Recent 60 Days
The future Nabucco will be 3,300 km long, Europe will receive
annually, via the territory of Turkey, first 15 and then up to 31
billion square metres of natural gas from the countries of the Near
East and the Caspian region. The gas pipeline passing though Turkey,
Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary, with gas storage facilities in Austria,
threatens to become an important alternative to supplies of energy
resources from Russia, which currently provides meets up to 30 per cent
of European gas needs. That is what economic publications are writing.
The word "threatens" is not coincidental here. The Nabucco project
was thought up in 2002 and then forgotten, however, the episode with
Europe’s gas being cut off, the Russo-Ukrainian gas rows, in which
economics and politics were closely interwoven -all of this made an
indelible impression on Europe. And it was after this episode that
they started to talk seriously about energy security.
Nabucco is a direct demonstration of Europe’s consistency in the matter
of its own defence, even if this defence costs eight billion dollars.
Of course, such a grand undertaking cannot fail to give rise to
doubts. These are economic and political.
Economic in so much as Europe’s gas needs are in theory met. And if
Nabucco is conceived of as insurance, then is such insurance not too
expensive? After all, it seems that both Ukraine and Russia have drawn
the necessary conclusions from the episode with the switch-offs. And
if you consider what has been done, the question arises -why is
Nabucco actually going to Europe? It would be much more logical if
the project was turned towards the East, to China, where the need
for gas will only grow. But everything is moving in the direction of
the West, and there is doubt that the Europeans will be able to use
these additional 15 billion cubic metres, which Nabucco will deliver
at the initial stage alone, and then the 31 billion when everything
starts to operate at full capacity.
And then there is a second question as well. For the time being, the
suppliers of the gas are Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. They are halfway
to China. Of course, they are worried about Europe’s energy security,
but not to such an extent as to keep their gas in reserve. Especially
since Russia has stated it has plans to construct a gas network to
China. All these questions remain.
And in their context, it is impossible to fail to consider the
project’s political component. It stands out a mile.
At one time, the Kremlin was speaking about energy as the economic
weapon of a Russia, which was "getting up from its knees". Many people
joked about its "rising", but were very rapidly convinced that the
"weapon" worked.
Vladimir Putin’s ironic smiles, detailed explanations to the West on
the subject of Ukraine, "if you have no money -do not buy", "they
still have not paid for the last six months" -a perplexed Europe
listened to all this.
Strictly speaking, Mr Putin was right. But he was right like the
Pharisees were right.
In the minutes of illusory imperial triumph, it was somehow forgotten
that Russia is the legal successor of the USSR, and for this reason
not only possesses all kinds of different real estate abroad, which
previously belonged to everyone, but also must to some degree bear
responsibility for the misfortunes of its old Soviet neighbours. I
wonder whether if Britain was supplying gas to India and Delhi
was unable to pay, London would have switched off the gas without
preliminary loud notification of this on BBC 1?
But Mr Putin, who had previously stated that the collapse of the
USSR was the main tragedy of the twentieth century, evidently decided
to demonstrate how really tragic it was to exist without the Soviet
motherland. And at the same time to explain once again to Yushchenko
that he should not love the Bandera nationalists. The fact that 99
per cent of Ukrainian citizens consider Bandera a criminal -just
as they do Mr Putin himself -did not disconcert the Russian prime
minister. Mr Putin’s surprising psychology: thinking that the nations
of the former USSR would love to be threatened with a stick and get
a clip around the ear from Moscow in 2009 is his striking signature
style. Putin’s Kremlin was always hinting that Georgia would be
great without Saakashvili and Ukraine without Yushchenko. But he is
achieving the opposite in these countries -people there understand
that Moscow loves Georgia without the Georgians and Ukraine without
the Ukrainians. And in the frenzy, in punishing other people, the
Kremlin is also punishing its own citizens. After all, the fact that
aircraft do not fly to Tbilisi is not a punishment for Saakashvili,
he does not need to go to Moscow. Those Georgians are punished who have
not yet forgotten about their two-hundred-year friendship with Russia,
who hire Russian nannies so that their small children know the Russian
language. Russian citizens are punished by their right to freedom
of movement being hindered, in violation of the constitution. The
president of the Georgian Academy of Sciences, who is also a member
of the Russian Academy of Sciences, complained to me how humiliating
it was for him to have to wait for an invitation from Moscow to get a
visa so that he could travel to Russia for the next important session
with his academic friends.
It definitely needs to be said -these actions are criminal. Friendship
with our neighbours was not constructed by us and it is not for us
to destroy it. And it was not out of place for the film-makers, who
gladly awarded prizes to Georgians at the international festival in
Moscow for their splendid cinema, to ask how the Georgians had got
to Moscow for their prizes. Although they well know how.
It is surprising that there is an article in the Criminal Code "for
inciting inter-ethnic discord" but there is no article for its real
embodiment.
And here it is in order to exclaim, citing Mr Putin himself: "Where
are the imprisonments?!"
But let us return to the gas pipeline.
It just seems that Europe is old, stupid and slow.
Everything was heard and understood.
Nabucco is Europe’s clear and unequivocal response to all Russia’s
words and actions.
It would appear that Vladimir Putin should have thought through
his propaganda escapades more carefully, even if they were meant
exclusively for his own citizens. You might be thought that the
current prime minister did not actually expect that his "energy weapon"
might backfire.
When gas to Ukraine was cut off, and it was coldly suggested to Europe
that it deal with Kiev itself, Europe was polite but did not forget
the indignity.
And Nabucco now draws a final line under such indignities and makes
it clear who is the strategic victor.
Europe knows -to vanquish Russia, it is not necessary to clash
with it, it is simply necessary to show there is an alternative in
any matter. That is how the USSR collapsed, that is exactly how any
Russian monopoly position will collapse. That is what Obama came to
Russia with. That is the diplomacy of the 21st century -you are asked
to walk alongside but without any preliminary conditions, compensation,
looking you in the eye and with assurances of friendship.
Nabucco signifies the end to the legend that Europe will die without
Russian gas. It would not have died then, and it is even less likely
to do so now.
Mr Putin once commented ironically on the idea of Nabucco, explaining
to Europe that it did not know how to count, since there was not enough
Azerbaijani gas to fill Nabucco. But he who laughs last, laughs the
longest: the gas pipeline will not only be filled with Azerbaijani but
also with Turkmen gas. And that is another, now a purely political
defeat for Moscow because Russian plans existed to buy up all the
Turkmen gas moving in a Western direction in order to deal a final
blow to the idea of Nabucco. But these plans failed back in March 2009
when they failed to sign the relevant contract with Turkmenistan in
Moscow. It now looks like the plans have been buried for good.
As we know, the Kremlin’s best reaction to any failure is childish
sulking. This charming ability, and one that is extremely
important at the current time, was demonstrated immediately:
President Dmitriy Medvedev on the very day the contract was signed
visited South Ossetia and made tough retorts there, directed at
Saakashvili. An asymmetrical response, as it were -the favourite
Russian style. Medvedev demonstrated with his visit that Europe’s
hopes of the annexed territories being returned to Georgia were
groundless. And the Kremlin has something to be offended about:
from now on Georgia will become "the principle transit territory"
and this means that its income from gas transit will increase many
times, and that it will completely escape Russia’s gas influence.
Of course, it is hardly the case that Nabucco is being built to protect
Georgia from Russia’s actions, but history is cunning. And sometimes
the finale of any enterprise is much broader than at its inception.
For example, levers of pressure on Moscow are now emerging for
Georgia. Tbilisi may raise the question of the dependence of the
return of its territories and the transit of Russian gas to Armenia
(remember the aircraft -a boycott is a boycott!) since a branch of the
gas pipeline crosses this country. The game may be played brilliantly
-Georgia interrupts supplies, but Armenia will not remain without
gas, the same Nabucco starts to supply it. And this will mean the
real death of Russian influence in the Caucasus.
But even that is not all. It is hard to say whether Russia had
plans for a new war with Georgia, but after the signing of the
Nabucco contract they will become extremely transparent. A paradox
is obvious. Georgia has joined neither united Europe nor NATO, but
it turns out that a simple signature on a serious economic agreement
may do more for the country’s security than any military blocs. And a
new battle-march by the famous 58th army on Tbilisi will not now be
perceived as aggression against Georgia but as aggression directed
against all of Europe, with its gas pipeline and its energy security.
Of course, many dangers lie in wait for the Nabucco project -economic
and political. But united Europe has proved its ability to accomplish
huge international projects, for example, the construction of the
large hadron collider worth 10 billion dollars. At times it works now,
at times it does not, but saying spiteful things about its breakdown
is the lot of the impotent.
Yes, Nabucco will be built. Yes, this is a political and an economic
defeat. But it would be the greatest stupidity to start a new wave
of counter-propagandist hysteria, thus worsening it.
Moscow only has itself to blame for everything: assuring Europe of its
reliable partnership and at the same time suggesting that it should
itself solve Russian problems -was that not the beginning of the end
for the Russian "energy weapon". And the anti-Western rhetoric and
the various scathing words and expressions of Vladimir Putin only
accelerated the process.
And lastly.
Of course, it is possible to assume that Europe is carrying out such
a huge project and will spend eight billion exclusively in order to
"wound and humiliate Russia". Moreover, I think that that is how
Moscow will explain the idea of constructing Nabucco to its citizens.