ANKARA: Gul meets with visiting Dutch FM

Turkish Press
March 4 2007

Press Review

HURRIYET

GUL MEETS WITH VISITING DUTCH FM

Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul yesterday met with his Dutch
counterpart Maxime Verhagen, who is accompanying Dutch Queen Beatrix
during her stay in Turkey. During their meeting, Verhagen stressed
Turkey’s obligations for its European Union membership bid.
Addressing the Cyprus issue, she said that Turkey was not the sole
party responsible for the situation, but Greek Cyprus also bore
responsibility. Commenting on the so-called Armenian genocide,
Verhagen said that Armenia and Turkey should discuss the issue and
reach an agreement. `The issue should be followed by both historians
and politicians,’ she added. /Hurriyet/

Akhtamar’s Surb Khach (The Holy Cross) Church to Be Opened by PM

AZG Armenian Daily #040, 03/03/2007

Armenia-Turkey Relations

AKHTAMAR’S SURB KHACH (THE HOLY CROSS) CHURCH TO BE OPENED BY PRIME
MINISTER ERDOGAN ON MARCH 29

Akhtamar’s Surb Khach (The Holy Cross) church to be opened by Prime
Minister of Turkey Erdogan on March 29, reports "Hurriet"
newspaper. The opening ceremony was planed on April 15, but due to
Ergodan’s official visit to Hanover, Germany, it was moved on March
29. The newspaper also referred to other possible reasons of opening
the church sooner than it was planned, which are spoken about in the
backstage of official Ankara. Three main causes are pointed out –
first, in April 2007 the Turkish "Justice and Prosperity" party is
expected to announce the name of its candidate for president’s office,
and second, the discussion of the Armenian Genocide Resolution in the
US Congress and aiming to have positive impression on the Senators on
the eve of voting for the resolution.

"Hurriet " says due to the aforementioned reasons a large delegation
is to arrive to the ceremony, consisting of "Justice and Prosperity"
party members, representatives of the Turkish Governmen and the
Armenian Diaspora, outstanding politicians and intellectuals. It is
also reported that Turkish Culture and Tourism Minister Koc is to send
a special invitation to Ms. Hasmik Pogosian, the Ministry of Culture
of Armenia.

It is noteworthy that an important detail, the church’s cross, was not
was not preserved in its place after the reconstruction. In connection
with that Mr. Koc said that it was not made on any evil purpose. If
the church had a cross in origin, it will be placed back on its
place. Turkish Culture Ministry historical monuments restoration
expert Yakub Hazan explained that the Akhtamar church has had a cross
(as any church should), but the restoration commission decided to omit
that detail due to lack of information about its authentic look. "We
had only one photograph of the church, which was made from afar and
the cross can hardly be seen."

H. Chaqrian

Soviet-era nuclear material target for smugglers willing to sell

Posted on Fri, Mar. 02, 2007

Soviet-era nuclear material is a target for smugglers willing to sell to
anyone

By Alex Rodriguez
Chicago Tribune
(MCT)

YEREVAN, Armenia – Jobless for two years, Gagik Tovmasyan believed
escape from poverty lay in a cardboard box on his kitchen floor.

Inside the box, a blue, lead-lined vessel held the right type and
amount of radioactive cesium to make a "dirty bomb." The material was
given to him by an unemployed Armenian Catholic priest who promised a
cut if Tovmasyan could find a buyer.

He found one in 2004, but the man turned out to be an undercover
agent.

Tovmasyan spent a year behind bars on a charge of illegally storing
and trying to sell 4 grams of cesium-137.

Today the chain-smoking Armenian cabdriver says his actions amounted
to simple survival. "That’s just the way it was back then," said
Tovmasyan, 48, who insisted he had no idea of the danger the material
presented. "I was selling all my belongings just to get by."

At a time when the U.S. is grappling with the specter of nuclear
weapons in North Korea and Iran, security experts warn that a vast
supply of radioactive materials – enough to make hundreds of so-called
dirty bombs – lies virtually unprotected in former Soviet military
bases and ruined factories.

Desperately poor scavengers looking for scrap metal already have
raided many of those sites, fueling an ever-growing concern in the war
on terrorism.

There were 662 confirmed cases of radioactive materials smuggling
around the world from 1993 to 2004, according to the International
Atomic Energy Agency. More than 400 involved substances that could be
used to make a dirty bomb, a weapon that would spew radioactivity
across a broad area. Experts say even these alarming numbers do not
reflect the magnitude of the smuggling.

The risk has grown despite tens of millions of dollars spent by the
United States to provide radiation detection equipment and security
training in former Soviet republics. Tracking how the money is spent
by opaque, often-corrupt governments has proved especially difficult.

The problem is wider in scope than often acknowledged, and the stakes
are enormous: It takes only a few grams of a deadly radioactive
substance such as cesium-137 or strontium-90 to make a dirty bomb.

Along Russia’s barren, jagged coastline on the Barents Sea, enough
strontium-90 to make hundreds of dirty bombs can be found in dozens of
unguarded lighthouses and navigational beacons. In Semipalatinsk in
eastern Kazakhstan, once the site of Soviet nuclear weapons testing,
scavengers routinely slip through breaches in tunnels where poorly
secured strontium-90, cesium-137, plutonium and uranium waste is
stored alongside scrap metal, the site’s director says.

In the small mountainous republic of Georgia, the director of a former
Soviet laboratory in the breakaway province of Abkhazia says
separatist leaders have prevented IAEA inspectors from adequately
surveying the institute, where stockpiles of uranium, cesium-137,
strontium-90 and other radioactive materials cannot be accounted for.

Many former Soviet republics do a poor job of maintaining reliable
inventories of radioactive material, according to Lyudmila Zaitseva, a
radioactive materials trafficking researcher at the University of
Salzburg in Austria.

Former Soviet borders are porous, and corruption is rife at border
guard posts.

When it comes to protecting radioactive materials, the countries that
once made up the Soviet Union are "the weakest and most dangerous link
in the whole chain," said Igor Khripunov, a U.S.-based expert in
nuclear and radioactive materials security at the University of
Georgia.

Zaitseva and her research colleague Friedrich Steinhausler, who log
radioactive materials trafficking cases into a database at the
University of Salzburg, estimate that roughly 3 of every 5 cases of
radioactive materials smuggling go undetected. "I am far more
concerned with what we don’t see than with what we see," Steinhausler
said.

The U.S. government has been slow to gird its ports and border
checkpoints with enough detection capability to prevent smuggled
radioactive materials from entering the country. In December 2005,
congressional investigators smuggled enough cesium-137 across U.S.
checkpoints on the Canadian and Mexican borders to produce two dirty
bombs, according to a 2006 Government Accountability Office report.

Testifying before a Senate homeland security subcommittee in March,
GAO officials said they doubted that the Department of Homeland
Security could hit its deadline of placing more than 3,000 radiation
detectors at border crossings, seaports and mail facilities by
2009. It was likelier, said the GAO’s Eugene Aloise, that the
department would not finish until 2014.

"Four and a half years after Sept. 11, and less than 40 percent of our
seaports have basic radiation equipment," said Sen. Norm Coleman,
R-Minn., the subcommittee chairman at the time during a congressional
hearing last March.

"This is a massive blind spot."

No one has ever detonated a dirty bomb, but terrorists have made it
clear they have the means and desire to do so.

In November 1995, Chechen separatists buried a canister of cesium-137
under the snow in Moscow’s Izmailovo Park and told a Russian
television network where to find it. Last year, a British court
sentenced Dhiren Barot, a London resident linked to al-Qaida, to 40
years in prison for planning a series of terrorist attacks in London
and the U.S. that would have included a dirty bomb.

In the dense stands of birch and pine in Russia’s far north, special
generators used to power lighthouses represent one of the most
vulnerable sources of material. Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators
create electricity through the decay of strontium-90. A single RTG can
house enough strontium-90 for 40 dirty bombs.

Russia has more than 600 RTGs scattered across its 11 time zones.

Lighthouses and navigational beacons equipped with them are largely
unguarded, at times lacking even a chain-link fence for protection.

In the Murmansk and Arkhangelsk regions along the Barents coastline,
scrap metal hunters have broken into six RTGs in recent years, said
Vladimir Kozlovsky, a local official involved in a Russian-Norwegian
project to replace the aging RTGs with safer technology.

In March, scrap metal hunters broke into a deserted military base
above the Arctic Circle and ripped apart four RTGs, according to
Bellona, a Norwegian environmental watchdog organization.

While there are no reports of strontium being taken from an RTG, the
scavenging highlights the risks.

Radioactive materials transported in Russia by rail are also
alarmingly vulnerable.

Last year Greenpeace activists staked out a train depot in a village
near St. Petersburg, Russia, to monitor trainloads of uranium from
Western Europe that had been stopping on their way to Siberia for
disposal.

"There were no police, no guards, no armed personnel around," said
Greenpeace activist Georgy Timofeyev. "The first time we noticed this
in May, we called authorities. They said, `If there aren’t any guards,
then there’s no danger.’ "But anyone can walk up and open them
because there are no serious locks on the containers," Timofeyev said.

Greenpeace activists say Russian authorities confirmed that the
shipments were being handled by Izotop, a state-owned nuclear
materials transport company. The firm handles roughly 50,000 tons of
nuclear material shipped through St. Petersburg each year, according
to Bellona. Izotop officials declined to comment.

In Kazakhstan, once a hub for Soviet nuclear production and research
because of its remoteness in the steppes of Central Asia, vast
networks of tunnels and boreholes used for nuclear weapons testing
pose a unique problem.

For four decades, the treeless stretches of scrub outside
Semipalatinsk in eastern Kazakhstan served as the Soviet Union’s
ground zero. The Soviet military machine conducted 458 nuclear weapons
tests at the 7,200-square mile site.

Most of the blasts occurred in 181 iron-lined tunnels a half-mile
below the ground, or in the site’s 60 boreholes.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Kazakhstan
relinquished its entire nuclear arsenal and sealed Semipalatinsk’s
tunnels and boreholes with concrete.

Those seals have failed to deter impoverished Kazakhs, who fashion
propane tanks into makeshift bombs to blast their way into the
tunnels. Their quarry is scrap metal, but local authorities worry
that the vast amounts of strontium, cesium, plutonium and uranium
waste still inside the tunnels could attract those intent on building
a dirty bomb.

"Anyone who wants to make a dirty bomb can target by-products of the
blasts," said Kayrat Kadyrzhanov, director general of the Kazakhstan
National Nuclear Center, which oversees the site. "When test blasts
were done, not all of the particles burned out. Even taking soil
samples would be of value to a terrorist or rogue state.

"When people get into the tunnels, we assume it’s for iron. But that’s
our assumption," Kadyrzhanov said.

The U.S. government has given Kazakhstan more than $20 million to seal
up tunnel and borehole entrances, Kadyrzhanov said, "but the problem
is still there." Kazakh authorities deploy only four patrol teams_made
up of a local police officer, a radiation detector specialist and a
driver – to cover 181 tunnels and a tract of steppe the size of New
Jersey.

"The scrap hunters are well-equipped," Kadyrzhanov said. "They’ve got
cell phones and warn each other about approaching patrols."

Radioactive flotsam left behind by the Soviets in Georgia is just as
worrisome. Canisters of cesium-137 and other radioactive materials
have been routinely found at abandoned military bases, research
laboratories – even in farmhouses, according to nuclear safety
specialists with the Georgian government.

Last summer, inspectors found cesium-137 amid a pile of nuts and bolts
in a soap container at a farmer’s house in the village of Likhauri.

"We came across many cases where radioactive material was found in the
street, in a forest, or in fields," said Grigol Basilia, a scientist
with Georgia’s Nuclear Radiation Safety Service.

Georgia’s biggest worry is the rebellious province of Abkhazia on the
Black Sea coast, where a separatist government defies Tbilisi with the
political and military backing of Russia.

Abkhazia is home to the Sukhumi Institute of Physics and Technology,
or SIPT, founded in 1945 as a cog in the effort to build the Soviet
Union’s first atomic bomb. In 1992, civil war broke out in
Abkhazia. Abkhaz separatists drove out Georgian troops in a year of
fighting that claimed 17,000 lives.

Georgian scientists at the institute fled, leaving the laboratory and
its storehouse of uranium, plutonium and other radioactive materials
in the hands of Abkhaz separatists.

Today, those Georgian scientists have no control over the fate of
SIPT’s deadly array of radioactive substances. Guram Bokuchava, the
institute’s director, operates out of a small office in downtown
Tbilisi, not knowing how those materials are guarded or even how much
are left.

In 2002, when IAEA inspectors flew to Sukhumi to check on uranium
stored at the institute, Abkhaz authorities would not let them inspect
the storage site, Bokuchava said.

"It’s not known how much uranium is there," Bokuchava said. "And it’s
not known how much cesium-137 and strontium-90 is there. Of course,
we’re concerned about what happened to these materials … but the
Abkhaz side is not giving any information about this."

Georgia also continues to be a major transit nation for radioactive
materials smugglers. In the most recent case, Oleg Khinsagov, a
50-year-old Russian trader, was caught trying to smuggle 100 grams of
highly enriched uranium through Georgia last year. He was convicted of
nuclear materials trafficking and sentenced to 8 1/2 years in prison.
Georgian authorities believe the uranium originated in Russia.

Khinsagov fits the profile of the opportunistic radioactive materials
smuggler working the Caucasus region: He was a simple trader, with no
criminal background and no known connections to organized crime or
terrorists.

Tovmasyan, the Armenian cabdriver, and the other men arrested with him
fit the same profile.

The man who gave Tovmasyan the cesium, Asokhik Aristakesyan, was a
priest and also unemployed, said Vahe Papoyan, an investigator with
the Armenian National Security Service. So was another man who tried
to sell the cesium, Sarkis Mikaelyan, a jobless economist. They each
were convicted and also sentenced to a year in jail "Especially in
countries with low standards of living," Khripunov said, "people can
be very enterprising."

The U.S. has aggressively tried to shore up border checkpoints in
Georgia and other former Soviet republics to stem the flow of
radioactive materials smuggling. From 1994 to 2005, Washington spent
$178 million to provide radiation detection equipment for border posts
in 36 countries, many of them former Soviet nations.

A March 2006 GAO report acknowledged that the new equipment helps, but
the bigger challenge is corruption.

"Border guards often don’t know what they’re dealing with," Zaitseva
said.

"They’re bribed to switch off their detection equipment. They don’t
know what’s being smuggled, and they really don’t care."

Probably, Ra National Assembly March 1 Sittings Will Also Fail

PROBABLY, RA NATIONAL ASSEMBLY MARCH 1 SITTINGS WILL ALSO FAIL

Noyan Tapan
Mar 01 2007

YEREVAN, MARCH 1, NOYAN TAPAN. Only seven deputies had been registered
at the beginning of RA National Assembly March 1 plenary sittings,
while at least 66 MPs should have been registered for starting the
sittings. Probably, plenary sittings of four-day session’s last day
will fail as the day before.

According to NA Regulations, if no quorum is provided within three
hours, the sitting will be announced as officially closed at 15:00.

Kapan "Gandzasar" Wins Football Olympic Team Of Turkmenistan With Sc

KAPAN "GANDZASAR" WINS FOOTBALL OLYMPIC TEAM OF TURKMENISTAN WITH SCORE OF 2:0

Noyan Tapan
Feb 27 2007

ASHGHABAD, FEBRUARY 28, NOYAN TAPAN. The last meeting of the group
tournament of the "Turkmenbashi Cup" tournament took place in Ashghabad
on February 27. The Kapan "Gandzasar" again played a drawn game
(0:0) with the Kazakhstan "Ordabas" and took the 2nd place in the
sub-group. "Ordabas" entered semi-final.

"Gandzasar" remained out of the struggle held a friendly meeting with
the Turkmenistan Olympic team and won with a score of 2:0. Edvard
Manucharian and Karen Khachatrian became authors of goals. Football
players of Kapan will have one more friendly meeting on February 28,
this time with the Ashghabad "Kopetdagh" team, multiple champion
of Turkmenistan.

GUAM Brings Up "Frozen Conflicts" At Spring Session Of UN General As

GUAM BRINGS UP "FROZEN CONFLICT" AT SPRING SESSION OF UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY

arminfo
2007-02-27 13:18:00

The issue on "frozen conflicts" in GUAM countries will be discussed
at spring session of the UN General

Assembly, permanent representative of Moldova in UN Aleksey Tulbure
told the journalists, APA reports. He said that the preliminary
variant of draft resolution proposed by GUAM countries has been
prepared. "Agreements with some countries especially with Russia on
discussion of the resolution continue. I consider that we will achieve
improvement on this issue in UN GA. there is nothing shocking in our
proposed resolution, we have refused confrontation," he said. Aleksey
Turbule added that new form of the resolution has been mitigated
a little bit. "Some issues concerning withdrawal of troops from the
territory of the country, which can be raised by individual countries,
have not been included into the draft resolution. We do not demand
arrival of the UN peacekeepers.

The authors of the resolution are satisfied by only confirming their
territorial integrity.

This variant of the resolution has more chance to be adopted in UN
General Assembly. GUAM countries intend to use tribune of UN to draw
attention to present problems in GUAM region. Russia is against the
resolution. But if Russia will be against, it will cause problem for
it," he said.

On February 27 Ra National Assembly Ratifies 7 International Agreeme

ON FEBRUARY 27 RA NATIONAL ASSEMBLY RATIFIES 7 INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS

Noyan Tapan
Feb 27 2007

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 27, NOYAN TAPAN. At the February 27 morning sitting
RA National Assembly ratified 7 international agreements introduced by
RA President. Three of them are bilateral agreements on encouragement
of investments and mutual defence signed in Yerevan between RA
government and governments of Latvia, Lithuania and Finland. The
parliament also ratified: – the agreement "On Cooperation between RA
Ministry of Culture and Youth Affairs and Kyrghyzstan’s Ministry of
Education, Science and Youth Policy on Cooperation in the Sphere of
Youth Policy" signed on April 28, 2006 in Yerevan, – the Geneva Act of
Hague agreement "On International Registration of Industrial Specimens"
signed on July 2, 1999 in Geneva, – Locarno agreement establishing
classification of industrial specimens adopted on October 8, 1968 in
Locarno and changed on September 28, 1979, – the agreement of Loan
of Industrial Infrastructures Restoration Program signed on June 17,
2007 between the Republic of Armenia and International Development
OPEC Fund. By the latter the International Development Fund of
the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will
provide 10 mln USD to RA as a loan for implementation of Industrial
Infrastuctures Restoration Program. The goal of the program is to
restore necessary infrastructures aimed at improving efficiency
of production of agriculture and cattle-breeding in Armenian rural
areas. The sum of the loan is subject to paying in 2012-2026 by 30
half-yearly payments.

Georgian President Impressed With Economic Growth Of Armenia

GEORGIAN PRESIDENT IMPRESSED WITH ECONOMIC GROWTH OF ARMENIA

PanARMENIAN.Net
27.02.2007 16:37 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is impressed
with Armenia’s economic growth. The Georgian President during his visit
to Brussels stated, that he is "impressed with Armenia’s development
speed and economic growth". "I was also impressed with reforms that
are being carried out in the republic," Mikheil Saakashvili stressed,
Mediamax reports. During his visit to Brussels Georgian President
will meet with leadership of the European Union and NATO.

Importers of "Avshar", Bjni", "Arzni" and "Kotayk" to Be Sued

A1+

IMPORTERS OF `AVSHAR’, `BJNI’, `ARZNI’ AND `KOTAYK’ TO BE SUED
[08:53 pm] 23 February, 2007

The Police Forces of Georgia have brought an action against Samvel
Manoukyan, who imports `Avshar’ vodka, `Bjni’ and `Arzni’ mineral
water and `Kotayk’ beer to Javakhq. The tax department of Georgia is
going to fine Samvel Manoukyan 420000 lari (over 250 000 USD)

Under the Penal code of Georgia, the citizen is liable to pay the
penalty within 45 days after receiving the deed.

Manoukyan used to pay 25000 lari (over 15000 USD) per each lorry which
surpasses the tax paid by local manufacturers, `Javakhq-Info’ reports.

Another person that imports goods from Armenia to Javakhq
(Javakhq-Info refrained from revealing his name for certain reasons)
claims that everything is neatly arranged; the accusation has no legal
warrants and the authorities simply want to exile them. He urges the
RA manufacturers to exert pressure and do their utmost to prevent the
implementation of the Georgian authorities’ plans otherwise they will
have to abandon Javakhq.

To remind, Meroujan Karoyan and Armen Uzounyan, importers of `Jermuk’
mineral water and `Kilikia’ beer were arrested on January 30. They are
accused of kidnapping a Tania who lives in Batumi.

According to the data of `Javakhq-Info’, the Georgian tax department
fined Meroujan Karoyan and Armen Uzounyan 100 000 lari (over 60 000
USD).

Send instant messages to your online friends

http://au.messenger.yahoo.com

Azerbaijan looks westward

Spero News
Feb 22 2007

Azerbaijan looks westward

What may now be changing is President Ilham Aliyev’s policy of
maintaining a special relationship with Russia as he balances US and
Iranian ambitions.

The geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus appears to be
shifting in a fundamentally westward direction, a change triggered by
the Russian announcement in December that Gazprom, Russia’s massive
state-owned energy consortium, would dramatically raise the price of
natural gas exports to Azerbaijan. The shift, which is being
described by analysts in Baku as a reorientation of Azerbaijan’s
foreign policy "towards the West" and a "unique opportunity," was
spelled out in a strongly worded Wall Street Journal
opinion-editorial on 19 January written by Foreign Minister Elmar
Mammadyarov.

In unusually frank terms, the foreign minister – known for his
careful use of language – spoke of a "defining moment for Azerbaijan
and the South Caucasus as a whole," and in comments aimed at Russia,
complained of "market bullies" and emphasized that Azerbaijan must be
guided by its national interest.

What may now be changing is President Ilham Aliyev’s policy of
maintaining a special relationship with Russia as he balances US and
Iranian ambitions. Even his opponents often admit that Aliyev,
inaugurated as Azerbaijan’s president in 2003, has inherited the
skills of his late father, Heydar. The elder Aliyev was a cagey
politico and former KGB general who deftly balanced his country’s
powerful neighbors, Russia and Iran, as well as the distant US
superpower, in a way that benefited Azerbaijan’s national interest.

Keeping US bases out of Azerbaijan while accepting US assistance in
modernizing its military; refusing to denounce Iran’s nuclear program
but keeping a watchful eye on Iranian influence in the region; and
maintaining cordial ties with Russia have been hallmarks of Ilham
Aliyev’s foreign policy.

But the Russian announcement that it would more than double the price
of natural gas to Azerbaijan was interpreted as "more than just a
market message" by the foreign minister, who reminded readers of
similar actions by Gazprom in Ukraine last year, as well as in
Georgia and Belarus.

"In response," he wrote, "we have decided to stop buying Russian gas
as well as to stop using the Russian pipeline to export Azerbaijani
oil to Europe"- an apparent reference to the Baku-Novorossiisk
pipeline that has been utilized for many years. The timing of
Gazprom’s – and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s – actions has not
been clearly explained, although it is widely assumed in Baku that
the origins stem from the breakdown in relations between Russia and
its South Caucasus neighbor Georgia.

The Georgian genesis
While Russia is rarely accused of subtlety in its foreign policy, the
Georgians cast subtlety aside when they arrested four Russian
military officers and 10 Georgians on charges of espionage in late
September – a move that touched off a war of words with the Kremlin
and led to the evacuation of Russian diplomatic personnel from
Tbilisi and suspension of air service to Moscow.

This episode was the capstone to a continuing struggle with Russia
over Georgia’s difficulties with breakaway South Ossetia and Abkhazia
– two pro-Russian regions nominally a part of Georgia where Russian
peacekeeping troops operate. It is a continuing reminder that Georgia
is militarily weak and has limited room for maneuver, even when its
own territorial integrity is involved. In November, the
self-proclaimed Republic of South Ossetia held elections in which
Eduard Kokoity, the de facto president, won a landslide victory. A
simultaneous referendum for independence garnered similar results,
although neither the referendum nor the presidential vote has been
recognized by the international community. In December, non-binding
measures in Russia’s lower house of parliament – the State Duma –
called for recognition of both South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The
measures passed unanimously.

The spy scandal and the South Ossetian vote were preceded in March by
Russia’s ban on Georgian wine and spring water imports, major sources
of export revenue in Georgia, as well as the cutoff of gas deliveries
to Georgia after a pipeline explosion in January – an event that
Russia insisted was beyond its control, but that Georgian President
Mikhail Saakashvili charged was an act of "serious sabotage from the
side of the Russian Federation."

South Caucasus analysts almost unanimously agree that the real reason
for the sanctions, if not the explosion, has been Georgia’s embrace
of EU and NATO integration, in part to counteract continuing Russian
military influence in the two breakaway regions.

Amid the unraveling of relations between Russia and Georgia and
despite the successful color revolution in Tbilisi – which was dead
on arrival in Baku in 2005 – Azerbaijan continues to integrate its
economy with Georgia’s and has discussed the sale of Azerbaijani
natural gas to Georgia via Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz field in the
Caspian Sea. The Shah Deniz is not yet fully developed, although the
Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry estimates that eventually it could
produce up to 16 billion cubic meters of gas a year, although export
to Georgia has been delayed in part by Azerbaijan’s domestic needs
now that it has refused to purchase natural gas from Gazprom.

Thus, Putin has witnessed for some time the growing ties between
Azerbaijan and Georgia despite his policy of isolating Georgia and
punishing it for a variety of geopolitical sins.

Gazprom’s lopsided price structure is an oddity, at least on the
surface, given its argument that it seeks only fair market rates for
natural gas. Ukraine pays US$130 per 1,000 cubic meters, the result
of intensive negotiations during the 2005 gas crisis there, and even
Kremlin-friendly Belarus was recently subjected to a drastic spike in
gas charges that was negotiated down to US$110 per 1,000 cubic meters
at the beginning of this year. But Tbilisi has something new in
common with Baku: both are being charged a crippling US$230, in line
with European market prices but a hardship especially for
resource-poor Georgia. Armenia’s price of US$110 is also the subject
of recrimination in Azerbaijan, still in a technical state of war
with Armenia over separatist Nagorno-Karabakh.

The issue of Karabakh hangs like a shroud over almost any discussion
of Azerbaijan’s relations with its neighbors, and when Mammadyarov
wrote in his article that the "frozen conflicts in the region" should
be resolved "in adherence to the principle of territorial integrity
of all three South Caucasus states," this was a clear message to
Moscow that not only does Azerbaijan feel that Russia has given undue
support to Armenia, but that Baku endorses the Georgian position on
retaining sovereignty over South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Possible Azerbaijani retaliation
In an effort to apply retaliatory pressure, a member of Azerbaijan’s
parliament – the Milli Majlis – has called for a revision of the
terms of Russia’s use of the Gabala radar station in northern
Azerbaijan. The Gabala station is reported to have the ability to
track ballistic missile trajectories in the southern hemisphere and
much of Asia, and is a critical link in Russia’s early warning
system. The current lease, which expires in 2012, calls for yearly
payments of US$7 million to Azerbaijan for use of the station.
Pro-government lawmaker Zahid Oruj told reporters recently in Baku
that he intended to raise the issue formally in March.

The chill in Russo-Azerbaijani relations is exacerbated by the recent
decision of the Azerbaijani National Television and Radio
Broadcasting Council (NTRBC) to end local television broadcasting
privileges for Russia’s state-owned Channel One and Rossiya (RTR)
networks. However, Russian networks have not been singled out. The
NTRBC says that Azerbaijan is merely complying with international
broadcast standards and in the Russian case is responding to a lack
of access for Azerbaijani television in the Russian Federation. These
decisions have coincided with the Azerbaijani government’s shutdown
of local independent television network ANS, one of Azerbaijan’s most
popular media sources, which was taken off the air by the NTRBC for
nearly three weeks late last year in what became for opposition media
and much of the international community a test case of freedom of
speech in Azerbaijan.

Meanwhile, in an obliquely worded press release, the Russian Foreign
Ministry stated on 12 February that it would "follow attentively" the
development of enhanced economic and transportation ties between
Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. This came on the heels of the
announcement last week of funding for the ambitious Kars-Tbilisi-Baku
railway project, which will link Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan with
a new railroad, making it easier for Azerbaijani and Georgian
passengers and goods to reach destinations in Europe via Turkey. The
railroad will bypass both Russia and its closest partner in the
region, Armenia.

Not all Azeri elites are interpreting recent events as a watershed.
Leila Aliyeva, one of Azerbaijan’s most respected political
scientists, told ISN Security Watch that the foreign minister’s
article was not so much a radical shift, but rather "a maneuver, or
reminder, that our course is integration in the West, which in fact
has never changed."

The notion that Azerbaijan had previously arrived at a permanent
rapprochement with Russia, which has now been perhaps fatally
damaged, "never reached a critical point," she said.

In a telephone interview last week with ISN Security Watch,
Azerbaijan’s consul general in Los Angeles, Elin Suleymanov, also
stressed that the country’s future would be found with pragmatism and
Western integration. He echoed the foreign minister’s view that
Gazprom’s decision was a largely political message.

"Azerbaijan’s policy at its core is based on its independence,"
Suleymanov said. "We base our relations with our neighbors on our
interests. Attempts by other states to impose their will on
Azerbaijan will be rejected."

This article was written by Karl Rahder who has taught US foreign
policy and international history at colleges and universities in the
US and Azerbaijan. In 2004, he was a Visiting Faculty Fellow in
Azerbaijan with the Civic Education Project, an academic program
funded by the Soros Foundations and the US Department of State. He is
currently based in Chicago.

Based in Zurich, Switzerland, the Center for Security Studies (CSS)
at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zurich), provides
via the International Relations and Security Network a wide range of
high-quality and comprehensive products and resources to encourage
the exchange of information among international relations and
security professionals worldwide. The ISN works to promote a better
understanding of the strategic challenges we face in today’s changed
security environment.

icle=8098

http://www.speroforum.com/site/article.asp?idart