Yeni Musavat, Azerbaijan
April 7 2008
Radical changes in Azeri government planned ahead of presidential
poll
The Azerbaijani president is about to kick off radical reforms ahead
of the October presidential vote to appease dissatisfaction both at
home and abroad, Yeni Musavat paper has said. There is growing
discontent with the economic policies of the government, the paper
reports, adding that foreign organizations are unhappy about the
state of the media and the president’s war rhetoric on Karabakh.
Under the report, the prime minister and the Baku mayor will also be
replaced among other top officials responsible for economy. The
following is the text of unattributed report by opposition
Azerbaijani newspaper Yeni Musavat on 7 April headlined "Abulfas
Qarayev to be promoted to the post of prime minister" and subheaded
"Ilham Aliyev is to kick off personnel reforms. The authorities want
to take action to eliminate the domestic dissatisfaction and get
support from the West"; subheadings have been inserted editorially:
Tough presidential vote predicted
Both recognized experts and various circles in the West claim that
the 2008 presidential election will not be easy for the Azerbaijani
authorities. The rating of the incumbent authorities has recently
dropped considerably both at home and abroad. Despite the president’s
activities, the construction of bridges, houses and growing
petrodollars, the dissatisfaction of citizens with the government is
on the increase.
According to acknowledged experts, the constant rise in prices is the
main reason behind this which is also [President] Ilham Aliyev’s
biggest enemy. Before money comes to a citizen’s house, his pocket is
emptied the rise in prices is indeed a pickpocket. Moreover,
monopolism, inexperienced economic policy, inflation, corruption and
bribery do further complicate the situation. Officials in the country
admit openly that they cannot cope with the rise in prices.
On the other hand, not a single move has been made forwards for the
resolution of the Karabakh conflict since 2003, which are key factors
aggravating the tension, adding to the distrust of the authorities.
Another factor in the souring relations between the West and the
current authorities is that not a single step has been taken towards
the democratization in the country, political and economic reforms
have not been introduced. Moreover, open and covered rapprochement
and understandings with Russia and Iran consequently are in place;
independent steps taken by the president in the issue of the Nagornyy
Karabakh conflict have further deepened the West’s irritation and
anxiety.
Contrary to expectations of western states, Ilham Aliyev insisted on
the Nagornyy Karabakh issue, co-opted thesis and slogans of the
patriotic opposition plus changed the negotiations process in its
favour by taking an advantage of the process of split in Armenia.
Inexperienced team
If attention is paid, at any chance the USA and the West have been
criticizing the Azerbaijani authorities, driving it into a corner,
moreover, actually threatening the country’s official representative
through hidden ways. Close to modern [political] technologies, the
disintegrated and closed ruling team, made up of old communists and
local businessmen cannot react properly to the modern situation,
pressures and changing foreign factors and direct the processes into
the necessary channel. In particular, mistakes made in the domestic
policy, the worsening media relations with the authorities are
further aggravating esteemed Ilham Aliyev’s position. His stance
becomes complicated on daily basis and such a process can be
considered dangerous for him in the run-up to the presidential
election.
Preventive steps in the pipeline
Given such a situation, any team is doomed to take preventive steps.
The Azerbaijani authorities are also about to take similar steps and
some decisions have already been adopted. First, efforts will be made
to improve Ilham Aliyev’s relations with independent newspapers.
According to information leaked out to our newspaper from the power
circles, consultations are under way to arrange a meeting between the
president and a number of independent correspondents and
editors-in-chief as soon as possible. During such a meeting, it is
possible that fates of the jailed journalists be resolved in an
operational manner and "demonstratively".
If such a scenario exists in reality and if it is leaked out to our
paper to find out our opinions, I have to say that this is correct
line and it is backed and we are ready to do everything possible.
Given this, causes of pressure on the president would be removed and
Azerbaijani independent papers will get a chance to breathe freely.
Another direction is connected with personnel reforms. Information
leaked out to us from official sources claim that the president and
his retinue will resort to radical personnel reforms in the run-up to
the presidential election, to be more precise, in months to come.
Just for this reason, in order to turn this into a political act and
campaign, the issue of officials who tendered their resignations over
their state of health, has been kept for 2008.
Personnel changes
One of them and even the first is the current Prime Minister Artur
Rasizada. Esteemed Artur muallim [mode of address] has repeatedly
both in written and oral appealed to the president to quit his post.
However, ongoing rivalry in the authorities over the post, on the
other hand, the difficulties in finding a most suitable person to the
second post in the country’s establishment under the constitution,
who will lack [future] ambitions [to become a president], are behind
a delay in the matter.
According to our information, before the presidential election
campaign is officially kicked off, measures will be carried out to
allegedly tackle economic problems, inflation and rise in the price
in the country and first of all, the country will get a new prime
minister. Artur Rasizada would be awarded the Order of Independence
and retire. In parallel, heads of the many government posts
supervising economy would be replaced, including the ministers of
taxes and economic development.
The head of the Baku executive authorities will also quit his post.
Although a decision with regard to the respected Hacibala Abutalibov
was accepted as early as last year, the order to this end was shelved
for the sake of the expected campaign. This time, he will go for
sure. Despite our respect to Hacibala muallim, we want to make public
a man who would replace him. He is the current economic aide of the
president, Ali Asadov.
As obvious, recently Mr Aliyev does unscheduled tours of Baku and is
always accompanied by Ali Asadov. While Baku’s official head is not
there, Ali Asadov is seen with the president, poses for photographs
like the Baku mayor, and makes different gestures and so on. This is
his presentation through this technique: this is the way the
president introduces the future mayor to the public.
Current culture minister to be promoted to premiership
We would not tell fortunes with regard to other posts since a lot has
been written about this matter. However, they whispered the name of
the country’s future prime minister. True, as the whisper came from a
rather reliable source, we decided to make it a headline. So
according to our information, the current culture and tourism
minister Abulfas Qarayev will soon be promoted to the post of future
prime minister.
To the question of why Abulfas Qarayev, we have many answers.
However, a great many questions show that we do not know the key
reason behind this. However, we know that Mr Qarayev is a reliable
man of the president and is one of the key figures of the Heydar
Aliyev Foundation and comes from a respected family. He is a family
member, one of the natives of the prominent [composer] Qara Qarayev
family. He is not involved in politics and intrigues, his name is not
often mentioned in corruption, has no ambitions and we and broad
public do not know about his ambitions.
So radical reforms are in the pipeline in the media sector and in the
Cabinet of Ministers. The latest statements coming from power
circles, in particular, the one voiced by the second man in the
ruling New Azerbaijan Party (NAP), Ali Ahmadov, a constructive
opinion by one of the leading figures of the country, [deputy
speaker] Bahar Muradova, (their statements about the hunger strike of
the journalists were very soft and humane Yeni Musavat) show that
indeed, serious processes are under way plus information leaked to
us.
If you remember, several months ago we reported that the authorities
were in talks with the West over allocating shares to the opposition
in the administration of the Cabinet of Ministers. At that point, the
president agreed to give two ministry portfolios, the posts of deputy
heads of the executive authorities for humanitarian issues, including
some other departments to the opposition provided that the opposition
recognized his legitimacy immediately after the election.
This plan is still topical on the agenda. However, we shall cover
this topic separately.