Author: Nalbandian Albert

TENSION ON ARMENIAN-TURKISH BORDER
by Nikol Pashinyan

Haykakan Zhamanak, (Armenian Times)
March 17 2009
Armenia

One of the most important issues of Armenian foreign policy,
Armenian-Turkish relations, is now topical in the context of
US-Turkish, Turkish-Azerbaijani, Azerbaijani-Russian, Russian-Georgian,
Georgian-US, and US-Russian relations. No matter how paradoxical
it may seem, but Armenia is the most passive participant of these
relations that have become worse over time. Armenia has been left
out of the process, and our Ministry of Foreign affairs, in essence,
is waiting for a phone call to learn how the issue was solved. The
issue will be solved or not solved as a result of the conflict of
motivations and interests of the big players in the big game.

No, we can’t

US President Barack Obama faces a difficult choice. On one hand,
he must carry out his obvious pre-election promise on recognizing
the Armenian genocide. On the other hand, he cannot spoil relations
with Turkey, especially against the backdrop of the problems that
have emerged in Central Asia. Turkey is of great importance as a
strategic partner and becomes much more important for the USA. Under
these conditions, the best solution for Obama would be the warming
of Armenian-Turkish relations. However, it is not excluded that
Obama would like to see a stronger reason – in the form of reopening
of the Armenian-Turkish border. That is, he might try to use the
formula of "reopening of the border in exchange for not recognizing
the genocide". According to this scenario, the reopening of the
Armenian-Turkish border does not seem improbable before 24 April [the
day of commemoration of the genocide], especially that Russia, which
has been the number one obstacle in the process, is also interested in
reopening of the Turkish border in the existing situation. However,
this time as well Russia’s interest may become a serious obstacle in
reopening the border.

Russian roulette

The motives of the Russian interest in warming of Armenian-Turkish
relations became clear in the summer of 2008 [during the
Russian-Georgian war], and these motives have not practically changed
so far. The axis of this interest is anti-Georgian. It seems that
Russia has not given up its plan of break Georgia into parts in the
future, and it would be difficult to carry out this task without the
activation of the Armenian factor. Playing on the Armenian factor in
the existing situation is not very easy, because Georgia, anyway, is
a lifeline route for Armenia, and inciting centrifugal forces in the
neighbouring country can be crucial for Armenia as well. However,
if Armenia gets a railway and other road access through Turkey,
Russia will no longer accept Armenia’s arguments against starting
a movement in Javakheti [Georgian region mainly populated by ethnic
Armenians], and it will be freer in actions carried out in regard to
Georgia. This transparent plan is read not only in Georgia, but also in
the USA and Turkey. In this regard, they will consider the reopening
of the Armenian-Turkish border also in the sense of a risk. That is –
besides other issues – one needs to find out whether the reopening
of the border creates very serious problems for the region, and
specifically for Georgia. US leaders will try to get answers to these
questions during their contacts with the Russian leadership.

Turks are thinking

Reopening of the Armenian-Turkish border can provide a hundred per
cent guarantee for Turkey that US President Barack Obama will not
recognize the Armenian genocide this year. And what will happen next
year, what will happen afterwards? Will the issue of recognition of
the Armenian genocide not become worse in one, two, three years after
the reopening of the Armenian-Turkish border? No-one can answer this
question; no-one can give such guarantees to Turkey. This means that
Turkey will do its best to raise big noise around reopening of the
border and settlement of Armenian-Turkish relations, trying not to
make any specific steps instead.

Opening of the border is a problem for Turkey also from the point of
view of the fate of the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Baku-Supsa
gas pipeline that pass through its territory. These pipelines end
in Turkey, that is, they are very important for it. On the other
hand, these pipelines start in Azerbaijan, which, naturally, should
be against reopening the Armenian-Turkish border. Thus, the issue
comprises a certain threat for Turkey in the context of its relations
with Azerbaijan. If Turkey reopens the border with Armenia without the
settlement of the Karabakh issue, Azerbaijan will consider it to be
a betrayal. Also, this will have specific geopolitical consequences:
Azerbaijan will feel itself more unprotected in front of Russia,
and will have to make concessions to it in the issue of gas. This
means that Turkey might lose the prospect of obtaining gas levers
over Europe.

Of course, Turkey can argue that the reopening of the border would
help resolve the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. These arguments will
not be groundless, but Azerbaijan will consider them to be very
complicated. So, signing any document on the Karabakh issue before
24 April can essentially change the state of affairs around this
issue. Therefore, Turkey can change its behaviour both in the positive
and negative senses at the last moment, and make its position stricter,
as it happened in relations with Israel. Ankara can set a strict
condition before the USA on this issue – either this or that. It is
difficult to say what decision the USA will take in that case. It
is very probable that that the USA will not view recognition of the
genocide as very important under such circumstances.

Azerbaijan-Georgia

In the existing situation, our two neighbouring states have maybe
the same interest – not to let Russia’s influence in the region
grow. This means that these countries should be interested in not
letting developments favourable for Armenia (Russia’s representative
in the region) to happen. Opening of Armenian-Turkish border
is definitely positive for Armenia; this means that Georgia and
Azerbaijan will use measures of influencing Turkey and the USA in
this issue. The whole difficulty is that the perception of the new US
administration, especially regarding its relations with Georgia, are
still unclear. Russia will try to convince Azerbaijan that Azerbaijanis
of Georgia also have the right to separate from Georgia after Abkhazia
and Ossetia. Of course, [Azerbaijani President] Ilham Aliyev does not
look like he will be inspired with this idea; and his major aim will
be continuing the strategy of isolating Armenia – a process that has
been going on in the past ten years. Time will show how successful
this will be.

Armenia

Reopening of the Armenian-Turkish border would be a great success for
Armenia and would become a breakthrough in the existing stagnated
situation. However, such development of events can unveil an
interesting fact. In particular, it will turn out that most of lands
adjacent to the road that leads to Margara checkpoint [on the border
between Armenian and Turkey] have belonged to well-known Armenian
oligarchs since a long time ago.

SEVENTH SITTING OF THE ARMENIA-BELARUS INTERGOVERNMENTAL COMMISSION UNDERWAY IN MINSK

armradio.am
19.03.2009 15:45

The seventh joint sitting of the Armenian-Belarusian Intergovernmental
Commission is March 18 to 20. The delegation headed by Minister
of Economy Nerses Yeritsyan, featuring representatives of business
circles of the republic, participates in the sitting.

Within the framework of the seventh sitting the parties will focus
on the issues of the volume of commodity turnover between Armenia
and Belarus, deepening of bilateral cooperation in the field of
information technologies, expansion of cooperation in the spheres of
agriculture and processing of agricultural products, establishment
of joint enterprises in the field of pharmacology, deepening of ties
between the regions of Armenia and Belarus in the spheres of industry,
healthcare, tourism, sport, education and science.

A number of documents are expected to be signed as a result of the
joint sitting.

TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTER SEES OBAMA’S VISIT AS IMPORTANT MESSAGE

Turk.Net
5/-DIP–TURKISH-FOREIGN-MINISTER-SEES-OBAMA-S-VISI T-AS-IMPORTANT-MESSAGE
March 18 2009

ANKARA (A.A) – 18.03.2009 – The Turkish foreign minister saw Wednesday
U.S. President Barack Obama’s visit as an important visit.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ali Babacan said that U.S. President Barack
Obama would pay one of his first foreign visits to Turkey.

"This is an important message to the entire world," Babacan told
private TGRT Haber channel.

Obama is expected to pay a visit to Turkey on April 6-7.

Babacan said that the United States clearly stated that it wanted to
work closely with Turkey, and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
noted down his recommendations during their meeting in the Turkish
capital of Ankara.

Clinton promised to work on those recommendations after she returned
to Washington D.C., Babacan said.

Babacan also said that the foreign policy agenda of Turkey and the
United States fully coincided with each other, and the United States
attached importance to Turkey’s perspective on Pakistan, Afghanistan,
Middle East, Caucasus and Iran.

"The new era in the United States offers significant opportunities
for Turkey," Babacan said.

Babacan said that Obama could make his planned speech in a Muslim
country either in Turkey or another country.

"We will be pleased if he chooses Turkey," he said.

Babacan said that Turkey was sharing its views with the United States,
and would give priority to communication and contacts.

Turkey was expressing its thoughts to the United States without any
hesitation, and as two equal and sovereign countries, he said.

Babacan also said that the United States had not made any concrete
demands regarding withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, and Turkey
would assess it when a concrete demand was made.

"We will extend any support for our own national interests and for
our neighbor Iraq if necessary," Babacan said.

On Turkish-Armenian relations, Babacan said Turkey wanted to normalize
its relations with Armenia, and was talking with Azerbaijani, Armenian
and Russian authorities to establish good relations in the Caucasus.

Babacan said that it was the first time that the United States and
Russia were extending support for an initiative.

Turkey had told the U.S. authorities that it was not right to take
some steps in a third country when such talks were going on, he said.

"But, we cannot say that there is no risk like a decision regarding
April 24 despite all these developments," Babacan said.

Regarding developments in Pakistan, Babacan said that he wanted
to go to a meeting on Pakistan in Japan, and Turkey was planning a
trilateral summit with Pakistan and Afghanistan in coming months.

Babacan said that Turkey would assess whether or not to send additional
troops to Afghanistan if a concrete demand was made, but problems in
Afghanistan could not be solved with more troops, tanks or arms.

The Turkish foreign minister underlined the requirement of a political
solution for stability and peace in Afghanistan, and said that Turkey
had met all groups in Afghanistan and told them to get involved in
the political process.

Also, Babacan said that a new era had begun in Turkey’s fight against
terrorism, and Turkey had taken diplomatic, economic and socio-cultural
steps besides military methods.

Babacan said that it was time that the regional administration in
north of Iraq to make some decisions, and the terrorist organization
PKK did not have any vogue from no one.

The Turkish minister said that it was easier to make a financial
pursuit after the United States included the PKK in the list of
illicit drug trafficking organizations.

Babacan said that the terrorism issue should be out of Turkey’s and
Iraq’s agenda.

The Turkish foreign minister defined Israel’s operation on Gaza as
a big mistake, and said that the Israeli-Syrian talks could resume
again after the message of the parties that they were ready.

The talks were interrupted due to Israel’s operation on Gaza. More
than 800 people were killed and around 3,000 others were injured
in the 22-day Israeli offensive against Gaza that was launched on
December 27, 2008. (BRC-MS)

ARMENIAN FINANCIAL EXPERTS DISCUSS REDISTRIBUTION OF ON-BUDGET EXPENDITURES

ARKA
March 17, 2009

YEREVAN, March 17. /ARKA/. A conference held at the RA Ministry of
Finance discussed issues of quarterly redistribution of on-budget
expenditures.

The chief financial experts of the Armenian executive, legislative
and judicial powers participated in the conference.

The press service of the RA Ministry of Finance reports that the
conference was chaired by RA Deputy Minister of Finance Pavel
Safaryan. He informed the attendees that, in pursuance of the
instructions issued at the RA Government’s sitting on March 12,
quarterly redistribution of some of the on-budget expenditures is
necessary, with some of the expenditures to be suspended.

"The conference participants received explanations for the problems
raised and discussed issues of liabilities to be assumed at the expense
of the budgetary funds under the circumstances," the report says.

Before March 18, all the government agencies are to submit to
the RA Ministry of Finance well-grounded proposals for quarterly
redistribution of some of the on-budget expenditures and for the
suspension of some of them.

"ARMENIA AND TURKEY WILL SIGN A CONTRACT THIS YEAR" ARF MEMBER

Panorama.am
14:24 16/03/2009

Armenian Revolutionary Federation Dashnakcutyun party is going to
publish a study presenting ARF’s comments, concerns and recommendations
on opening the border of Armenia-Turkey, announced the director
of ARF Armenian Cause office in Yerevan Kiro Manoyan in a press
conference. Regarding the statements made by the Turkish party that
soon an agreement will be signed between Armenia and Turkey, Kiro
Manoyan says that it is difficult to make comments on it. He says,
it is difficult to say what an agreement that will be. One thing
Mr. Manoyan knows for sure – something will be signed this year.

IMF forecasts about 1.5% economic recession in Armenia in 2009 are realistic

957

YEREVAN, MARCH 13, NOYAN TAPAN. The IMF’s forecasts that 1.5% economic
recession will be recorded in Armenia in 2009 are realistic, the
minister of finance Tigran Davtian said at the briefing after the March
12 sitting of the government.

"We have planned Armenia’s budget with quite a low deficit – below 1%,
we have quite a small foreign debt, and its ratio to GDP does not
exceed 14-15%. It means that we have an opportunity to increase the
budget deficit and attract additional foreign sources for deficit
financing," T. Davtian said, adding that the negotiations with the
World Bank, the U.S. and Russia on attraction of financial resources
have finished.

It was mentioned the tax revenue collection in January and February
2009 declined by 5 billion drams and 10 billion drams respectivley as
compared with the same months of 2008. However, according to the
minister, there have been some positive changes in March.

PanARMENIAN.Net

NATO open to cooperation with all states
13.03.2009 21:54 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Armenia-NATO cooperation within the IPAP program
will help Yerevan become one of the parties on providing International
Security, as said Marie L. Yovanovitch, U.S. Ambassador to Armenia at
NATO Youth Forum. As she says, Armenia-NATO cooperation will help the
republic increase Armenia’s role in providing International
security. `The Alliance is interested in continuing and strengthening
the cooperation with Armenia. NATO is open for cooperation with all
states, in this way or other.’

Lavrov: ‘The document’ about of weapon to Armenia by Russia is false

2009-03-12 17:00:00

ArmInfo. ‘The document’ that appeared in Azerbaijani mass media that
allegedly Russia transferred a big lot of weapon to Armenia, is false,
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said after the talks with his
Azerbaijani counterpart Elmar Mammadyarov.

‘Russia is implementing the military and technical cooperation with
many countries but does not break any international obligation or its
legislation, and does not let any destabilizing delivery to any region.
We cooperate with Azerbaijan as well as with Armenia on these
principles. As for the rush risen around ‘the document’ appeared in the
Azerbaijani mass media, it has been mentioned many times, it is false’,
– Lavrov said, as Russian mass media reported.

European commission releases ?¬3mln in budget support to Armenia

YEREVAN, March 11. /ARKA/. The RA Ministry of Finance has received
?¬3mln from the Food Security Programme (FSP).

The European Commission’s delegation to Armenia reports that with the
successfully implemented EC Food Security Programme 2007-2008, the
total FSP contribution to Armenia’s development sum up to ?¬105mln.

The overall objectives of the EC Food Security Programme for 2007-2008
were in tune with the Armenian Poverty Reduction Strategy and aim i) to
contribute to the overall effort by the Government and the society to
reduce poverty though sustainable economic growth and development, and
ii) to maintain the momentum for reform in agriculture.

The specific objective of the EC Food Security Programme for 2007-2008
was to assist the Government of Armenia to improve the design,
management, delivery and effectiveness of state programmes and services
in agriculture that are aimed at reducing food insecurity, and
particularly to improve efficiency in the area of animal health and
phytosanitary policy.

The European Commission Food Security Programme in Armenia is an
instrument of balance of payments and national budget support. The EC
Food Security Programme has been supporting the State Budget of the
Republic of Armenia since the 1997 fiscal year.

Since then 10 annual Programmes were successfully completed granting ?¬
96.5 million for direct budget support and ?¬ 5.5 million for technical
assistance and follow up. `0–

PanARMENIAN.Net

Achievement games initiators fined with AMD 1.2 mln
11.03.2009 20:52 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ In February 2009 Armenian Ministry of Finance issued
a warning to 10 licensed owners of gambling games and 1 casino, RA
Ministry of Finance official website reported.

In the same period, gambling games organizers were fined AMD1,2
billion.

As of 2009, a state duty totaling AQMD 85 million (AMD 60 million for
gambling games and AMD 25 million for casinos) was paid.

As of Mar 1 2009, 119 gambling games, 14 casinos and 4 lotteries
possessed valid organizational licenses.