A CAUCASUS RADAR; AMERICAN MISSILE DEFENSE WILL EXTEND TO RUSSIA’S SOUTHERN BORDERS
by Nikolai Poroskov
Translated by Elena Leonova
Source: Vremya Novostei, March 5, 2007, pp. 1-2
Agency WPS
What the Papers Say Part B (Russia)
March 5, 2007 Monday
Georgia or Azerbaijan might host an American radar station; The United
States intends to deploy a radar in the Caucasus for its national
missile defense system. This was announced by Lieutenant-General Henry
Obering, head of the US Missile Defense Agency. Once again, as usual,
we are hearing assurances that the new radar won’t be aimed at Russia.
The United States intends to deploy a radar in the Caucasus for its
national missile defense system. This was announced in Brussels by
Lieutenant-General Henry Obering, head of the US Missile Defense
Agency. It’s as if the United States has heeded the words of
Russian defense analysts who have recommended basing a radar in
Turkey, for example, rather than the Czech Republic. Obering said
that an additional radar of this kind "would be very useful for
the anti-missile system, though not essential." If the radar’s
location turns out to be a former Soviet country in the Caucasus,
NATO membership for that country would be fast-tracked automatically.
Presumably, this will be a mobile radar system which can be installed
within days – similar to some Russian radar systems which are ready
for use almost as soon as they leave the factory. The American radar
would detect missile launches and transmit the data to a stationary
radar in the Czech Republic.
Once again, as usual, we are hearing assurances that the new radar
won’t be aimed at Russia. In this case, it would be aimed at Iran.
Obering said: "We couldn’t turn it around and track targets in
Russia. And even if we could, the radar wouldn’t see far enough into
Russian territory to detect Russian missile launches." Obering is
right in the sense that it would indeed be difficult for the radar to
detect Russian missile launches, since its signals would be obstructed
by the Caucasus mountain range to the north.
But Anatoly Kornukov, former Air Force commander, maintains that
an American radar in the Caucasus "would directly affect Russia’s
national security," since it "would probably provide a 360-degree view"
and its objective would be "to monitor our country’s southern regions."
Exactly where in the Caucasus do the Americans intend to deploy a
new radar by 2011? That still remains unknown. Most Russian military
experts are inclined to believe it will be in Georgia or Azerbaijan.
Tbilisi has declared that military cooperation with the United States
and NATO is one of its foreign policy priorities. The Georgians are
already saying that the possible deployment of US missile defense
elements in Georgia "might act as a deterrent factor in relation to
Russia," and that "Russia might pose a more serious threat than Iranian
missiles." Forces opposed to President Mikhail Saakashvili predict that
"the Georgian leadership won’t be able to say no to its patron." The
Georgian leadership’s recent statements about being prepared to send
troops to Afghanistan are evidence of this.
Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, vice president of the Geopolitical
Studies Academy, maintains that the most likely radar location is
Georgia, which "never refuses any request from the United States."
But Ivashov does not rule out the possibility of the radar being
based in Azerbaijan.
The experts we approached for comments noted that American and Turkish
military commanders have visited Azerbaijan recently.
However, the Baku government would also have to consider the
disapproval of Moscow and Tehran. Experts also point out that
Azerbaijan already hosts two American radar stations – but these
are part of a Caucasus monitoring project, tracking sea targets
that may involve terrorists; these radars have nothing to do with
missile defense.
Official representatives of both potential host nations have denied
all of these assumptions. The Georgian Foreign ministry said: "This
issue is not on the current agenda in Georgian-American relations,
and it has never been raised. No such request has been received,
and we have not received any official communications regarding this
matter." The Defense Ministry of Azerbaijan says it has no information
about the possibility of American missile defense elements being
deployed in Azerbaijan. Armenia, which maintins good relations with
both Russia and America, also says it hasn’t received any official
requests from the United States about hosting a missile defense radar.
There is no precise information about what the American missile
defense system entails, but Obering’s statement was the first official
admission that Washington won’t confine itself to installing missile
defense elements in the Czech Republic and Poland alone.
Until now, neither American military officials nor American diplomats
had spoken directly of plans to install a radar in the Caucasus.
American missile defense commanders are now talking of ten missile
defense elements, three of which will be based in Europe.
Moreover, for the first time, the US State Department has officially
mentioned Ukraine among countries with which Washington is cooperating
closely on missile defense. This statement came from John Rood,
recently appointed as Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and
International Security. He also accused Moscow of pursuing some
missile defense programs of its own, including defense against
short-range missiles.
But let’s get back to the Caucasus. The Gabala radar station in
Azerbaijan has been operating since the Soviet era; Russia currently
leases it. This radar is aimed at the Indian Ocean, tracking around
6,500 kilometers of airspace – Iran, Iraq, part of India. Russia would
not object to sharing essential data with the Americans. But it seems
that the Americans haven’t abandoned the idea of deploying paired
systems around Russia’s borders: pairs of radars and anti-missile
bases.
A Caucasus radar would be able to monitor the Russian Air Force’s
activities across the Black Sea, Armenia, and the Caspian Sea. It
would even be able to monitor air defense tests and exercises at the
Ashuluk firing range on the Lower Volga and the Sary-Shagan range in
Kazakhstan. With some modifications, an American radar could be used
to interfere with the Russian early warning system radar in Azerbaijan.
Russian experts say that the Caucasus radar idea is primarily aimed
against Russia’s Topol-M ICBM, which can carry supersonic maneuverable
warheads capable of penetrating any missile defense system. In future,
radars and interceptor missiles in Europe and the Caucasus, along with
resources on US territory, could be combined into a single missile
defense system – a powerful shield.
It should be noted that facilities such as a radar for national missile
defense can only be deployed in countries which are US allies within
NATO. Consequently, any country which agrees to host an American
radar would automatically be on the fast track to NATO membership.