Polarized Armenia is preparing to vote in parliamentary elections. This is seen as a test of whether the hard-won democracy can survive the political turmoil caused by the failure of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict last year.
The results of Sunday’s elections will determine the future of post-war Armenia and the 30-year conflict with Azerbaijan, but many voters have yet to decide whether to choose between bad or worse in the eyes of some people.
Four groups and 22 political parties will oppose the caretaker prime minister Nikol Pashinyan, who stepped down in April after months of protests after signing a peace agreement last year and ending six weeks of fighting.
At least 6,000 people on both sides were killed in the conflict, most of them soldiers.
The agreement was facilitated by Russia and is widely regarded as beneficial to Azerbaijan’s old enemy. Armenia returned Nagorno-Karabakh and its surrounding territories to neighboring countries, but Pashinyan insisted that facing greater losses, He has no choice.
In what experts say may be the most competitive election in the history of modern Armenia, the four former leaders of the current republic are participating in parliamentary elections.
With the exchange of threats and insults and the prevalence of populist rhetoric, some believe that confrontation may spread to the streets.
The front runners include former journalist Pashinyan and former President Robert Kocharyan, the latter is a former journalist who took the lead in the peaceful protests known as the “Velvet Revolution” in 2018. In some people’s eyes, he represents the corrupt old guard who was removed during the uprising.
Although Pashinyan and his Civil Contract Party promised to separate business from politics during their tenure, Kocharyan still faces a bribery investigation due to the alleged bribery of a business woman during his last months as president in 2008 $3 million.
Pashinyan took the lead in launching the “Velvet Revolution” in 2018 and then came to power [Tigran Mehrabyan/PAN Photo via Reuters]
In total, six candidates face criminal charges.
Kocharyan, who leads the Armenian Union, is also the former leader of Nagorno Karabakh and comes from its capital, Stepanakert.
He positioned himself as an experienced and security-conscious politician, and he is about to retire, leading Armenia through difficult times.
But lack of confidence in the current and previous authorities may lead to low voter turnout.
According to a March poll conducted by the US-based International Republican Institute, more than 40% of respondents said they would not vote in the election.
Voters interviewed by Al Jazeera expressed indifference to all aspects of the political spectrum.
Georgi Ghahramanyan, a 37-year-old linguist from the capital Yerevan, will vote for Kocharyan because “under certain circumstances, you have chosen the lesser of two evils.”
He said: “He is charming and strong-willed, so I think he can handle the current situation better than just talk.”
If any party or group fails to get 50% of the votes, a second round of voting will be held between the two parties with the most votes.
Experts warn that there are already signs that if this happens, politicians may call on their supporters to take to the streets.
“I don’t support Pashinyan, but everything is better than returning the Kocharyan regime,” said 42-year-old teacher Alex Mekhitarian.
Richard Gilagosian, director of the Think Tank of the Regional Research Center in Yerevan, said that Kocharyan “represents the Jurassic Park of Armenian politics-the revenge of the dinosaurs.”
He expects Pashinyan to win with a smaller majority.
“Voters who are hesitant will become the key swing votes that may support the government, not because they like or support Pashinyan, but because the opposition is more dangerous,” he said.
The opposition has not announced any different approaches during or after the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that began in September last year.
In the eyes of many in Armenia, the country is still at war-intermittent skirmishes and ceasefire violations continue to occur in the border areas.
Kocharyan is also the former leader of Nagorno Karabakh, from the capital of Stepanakert [File: Vahram Baghdasaryan/Photolure via Reuters]
Last week, Baku handed over 15 prisoners of war (POW) in exchange for a map detailing the location of the Agdam mines, the area ceded to it under the November peace agreement.
But the outcome of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains a core issue for many Armenians, as does the continued presence of Russian peacekeepers in the region under the terms of the agreement that Moscow helped plan.
“Regardless of who is in power, this country is now more firmly on the track of Russia,” said Gilagosian, who thinks Moscow prefers Pashinyan to win.
“The Kremlin’s Armenia is the exact opposite of Belarus-Pashinyan is a useful trophy for the president as a legitimate and democratically elected leader. [Vladimir] Putin, unlike [Alexander] Lukashenko. “
Narek Minasyan, a senior expert at the Orbeli Analysis Center supported by the government, said that the possibility of another large-scale confrontation with Azerbaijan in the short term is low, but issues such as prisoners of war have been politicized.
He said the election will “answer several key questions about society.”
“Do Armenian citizens want the revolution and democratization process to continue in 2018? Do they think this historical stage is a failure? Do they prefer former authoritarian leaders who try to position themselves as’crisis managers’ to overcome crises?” Mi Naxian said.
“Some people think that the wounds after the war are too deep and the elections will not bring stability, but will deepen the crisis.