Forecast: New military conflicts in the South Caucasus are not excluded at all

ARMINFO
David Stepanyan

ArmInfo.New military conflicts in the South Caucasus are not excluded at all. Today it seems that we can speak about it quite definitely. Russian political scientist,  expert on the Caucasus Andrei Areshev, expressed such an opinion to ArmInfo.

“In the context of the current tension in Ukraine and around Ukraine,  one can clearly see the desire of Baku to use the situation for its  own purposes. It is clear that the latter consists in obtaining the  maximum possible concessions from Yerevan. The desire of the Armenian  leadership to resolve the situation and curb Azerbaijani appetites  through the West is also obvious. I’m afraid that the hopes for  Western help will not come true and in return the Armenian society  will only receive another assurance of friendliness,” he said.

In any case, Areshev sees Armenia’s desire to diversify its foreign  policy. Which, in his opinion, in the current geopolitical realities  can lead to strengthening relations with Turkey rather than with the  West. The political scientist believes that Armenia has recently been  quite actively moving in the Turkish direction.

According to the political scientist, gainst this background, Moscow  is pursuing a fairly balanced policy between Yerevan and Baku, an  example of which was the recent signing of the allied declaration of  the Russian Federation-Azerbaijan. Taking into account Armenia’s  participation in joint integration projects with Russia and  high-level bilateral relations, this document, in his opinion, will  not have a negative impact on Russian-Armenian relations.

“It is important to understand that against the backdrop of a  constantly changing geopolitical situation, both Armenia and  Azerbaijan are important regional partners for the Russian Federation  in terms of ensuring regional security. I think that Moscow will  continue to work towards achieving peace and stability in the region.  The main indicator of which may be an agreement to continue the  mission of Russian peacekeepers in Artsakh,” he stressed.

According to Areshev, the latter, among other things, also requires  the successful development of a dialogue between the Russian  Federation and Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation and Armenia,  including in the direction of development of economic and  communication cooperation. According to his forecasts, accordingly,  the more predictability and openness of Moscow-Baku relations, will  lead to stabilization of the situation around Artsakh, under the  control of the peacekeepers of the Russian Federation. 

Agenda of bilateral relations between Armenia, Russia significantly expanded, FM Mirzoyan says

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 16:30,

YEREVAN, MARCH 21, ARMENPRESS. The Armenian-Russian allied, strategic partnership continued developing in 2021, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia Ararat Mirzoyan said at the session of the parliamentary standing committee on foreign affairs.

“The agenda of the bilateral relations between Armenia and Russia has significantly expanded, involving new directions of deepening and expanding the cooperation in commercial, industry, agricultural, energetic, transport, ICT, social, healthcare and humanitarian spheres”, the FM said.

He reminded that the 8th Armenian-Russian inter-regional conference was held in Yerevan on October 18-19 2021, as well as the 20th session of the Armenian-Russian inter-governmental commission on economic cooperation took place on December 21-22, co-chaired by the deputy prime ministers of the two countries.

Armenpress: Armenia holds active talks with Iran on establishing North-South int’l transportation route

Armenia holds active talks with Iran on establishing North-South int’l transportation route

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 17:00,

YEREVAN, MARCH 21, ARMENPRESS. Armenia continues deepening the traditional friendly relations with Iran and for this purpose Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met two times with Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said at the session of the parliamentary standing committee on foreign affairs.

“In order to deepen the traditional friendly relations with Iran, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met on August 5, 2021, with Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi during his working visit in Iran. The next meeting took place in Dushanbe on September 17 of the same year. The further development of the Armenian-Iranian multilateral relations and the developments taking place in the region were discussed during these meetings”, the FM said.

He said that in the end of the year the government of Iran adopted a decision on opening a general consulate in Armenia’s town of Kapan, adding that the Armenian side is discussing the issue of opening a general consulate in Tabriz.

“Active talks are underway with Iran to establish a North-South international transportation route”, the FM said.

General Staff: Russia plans to transfer its units from Armenia to Ukraine

Ukraine –
The Russian Federation, trying to restore the combat capability of its units in the territory of Ukraine, plans to transfer to Ukraine some units from the 102-nd Russian military base in Armenia.

“The twenty-third day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to the Russian military invasion continues. Continuing attempts to restore the combat capability of individual units involved in hostilities, the military leadership of the russian federation plans to transfer to Ukraine some units from the 102-nd Russian military base in Armenia,” the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posted on Facebook.

As noted, the refusal of some servicemen of the russian federation to take part in hostilities is confirmed, which is due to the low level of moral and psychological condition of the russian occupiers after the clashes with the Ukrainian defense forces. Thus, in particular, at the permanent deployment point of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th All-Military Army of the Southern Military District, about 130 servicemen refused to take part in hostilities. The enemy personnel was demoralized, suicides and self-mutilation became more frequent.

“Due to the lack of positive results and inability to fulfill the set tasks, it is planned to remove Colonel Vadym Pankov, commander of the 45th special brigade of the special purpose air force of the russian Armed Forces. He is accused of failing to perform a combat mission at Hostomel airfield,” reads the report.

Meanwhile, the pro-government russian media continue to spread false information about the armed aggression of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine. The creation and distribution of staged propaganda videos through all available information channels, including in the countries of the European Union and the United States, in order to discredit the activities of the military-political leadership and the Defense Forces of Ukraine continues.

In the city of Dzhankoi, in the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, training in local secondary schools has been suspended with their further use to accommodate servicemen of the armed forces of the russian federation arriving in the city.

In the Chernihiv region, russian occupiers are intimidating locals to quell civilian resistance.

The occupiers continue to defiantly violate the norms of international humanitarian law and destroy the infrastructure of cities, creating the preconditions for deepening the humanitarian crisis.

The Defense Forces of Ukraine continue step by step to liberate the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine in all directions, the General Staff stressed.

As reported, the total combat losses of the enemy from February 24 to March 18 are about as follows: 14,200 people, 450 tanks, 1,448 armored combat vehicles, 205 artillery systems, 72 MLRS, 43 air defense units, 93 aircraft, 112 helicopters, 879 vehicles, 3 ships/boats, 60 fuel tanks, 12 UAVs of operational and tactical level, 11 units of special equipment. Data are being updated. The calculation is complicated by the high intensity of hostilities.

Turkish, Armenian foreign ministers meet in bid to normalize ties

DW – Deutsche Welle, Germany

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and his Armenian counterpart Ararat Mirzoyan met for the first official sit-down talks since 2009. Ankara and Yerevan have troubled history and no diplomatic relations.

Turkey and Armenia have recently allowed charter flights between the two countries as they inch towards reconciliation

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said he held “productive and constructive” talks with Armenian counterpart Ararat Mirzoyan on Saturday. The diplomatic forum in Turkey marks the first time foreign ministers of Turkey and Armenia met for sit-down talks since 2009.

Cavusoglu told reporters that they were “making efforts for stability and peace.”

Armenia’s Mirzoyan echoed similar sentiments, saying “we are continuing the process of normalizing relations without preconditions… we are making efforts.”

The meeting, which lasted for 30 minutes, was held in the southern Turkish city of Antalya.

Turkey and Armenia are historically bitter rivals and share no diplomatic relations.

The main issue between the countries stem from the mass killings of Armenians by Ottoman forces in 1915, during World War I.

Armenia calls it a genocide, and says 1.5 million Armenians were killed that year. Turkey has rejected the genocide label and has denied that it was systematically orchestrated. Ankara accepts that a large number of Armenians were killed, but says the numbers are exaggerated by Armenians and that Turks were killed as well. 

The German Parliament in 2016 recognized the killing of Armenians as constituting a genocide, as did the United States in 2021. A dozen other bodies and countries like the European Parliament, France and Canada recognize Ottoman killing of Armenians as genocide.

Additionally, normalization of ties between Turkey and Armenia have been hampered by fierce dispute between Turkey’s ally Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Azerbaijan and Armenia have fought violence wars over the region in the late 1980s and 1990s, with tensions flaring most recently in 2020.

Turkey cut diplomatic ties and shut its border with Armenia in 1993, in solidarity with all Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan was at the time engaged in a conflict with Armenian separatists in Karabakh.

Azerbaijan is majority Muslim, while Armenia is majority Christian.

In 2009, Armenia and Turkey signed a landmark peace accord to restore ties and open borders, but the deal was never ratified amid pressure from Azerbaijan.

In 2020, during the bloody Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Ankara once again supported Azerbaijan and accused Yerevan of occupying Azeri territories.

A Russian-brokered truce that ended the conflict removed Turkey’s main objection to talking to Armenia, which was Yerevan’s support for the local Nagorno-Karabakh government’s claim of independence from Azerbaijan.

The war also saw Azerbaijan restore control over large parts of its former province of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding districts.

The first commercial flights for two years between Turkey and Armenia resumed in early February, but the land border remains closed. 

rm/dj (Reuters, AFP, AP)

Issue of organizing meeting between Presidents of Russia, Ukraine discussed at the trilateral meeting in Turkey

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 18:25,

YEREVAN, 10 MARCH, ARMENPRESS. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu talked about the meeting with Foreign Ministers of Russia and Ukraine, ARMENPRESS reports, Turkish Anadolu news agency informs.

“If the war continues, innocent children will suffer the most. Every day the scale of bloodshed and grief increases. People, who stay in war zones, should be saved”, said Çavuşoğlu.

He emphasized that as long as the long-term ceasefire hasn’t been established, it is important to maintain the humanitarian ceasefire.

According to Çavuşoğlu, the opening of humanitarian corridors is important for the civil population. “If the servicemen on the spot do not follow the agreements, then the evacuated civil residents will face real security threat”, said the Turkish minister.

“Turkey emphasized during the meeting held in Antalya the impermissibility of creation of obstacles in Ukraine for humanitarian activity” he said, calling the trilateral meeting in Antalya “an important beginning”.

“Despite all difficulties, the discussions related to Ukraine were held in the framework of ethics.”, the Turkish minister added.

Çavuşoğlu said that during the meeting with the participation of Lavrov and Kuleba the topic of the organization of the meeting between the Presidents of Russia and Ukraine was discussed.

European Parliament adopts resolution condemning the destruction of Nagorno-Karabakh’s cultural heritage

European Parliament adopts resolution condemning the destruction of Nagorno-Karabakh’s cultural heritage

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 19:31,

YEREVAN, 10 MARCH, ARMENPRESS. The European Parliament adopted a resolution on the destruction of cultural heritage in Nagorno-Karabakh, ARMENPRESS reports the resolution was adopted with 635 votes in favor, 2 against and 42 abstentions.

Armenian MP Arman Yeghoyan wrote on his Facebook page that the resolution strongly condemns Azerbaijan’s ongoing policy of erasing, denying the Armenian cultural heritage in Nagorno Karabakh and around it, violating international law, and the recent decision of the International Court of Justice.

It states that over the past thirty years, Azerbaijan has committed irreversible destruction of religious and cultural heritage, especially in the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic, where 89 Armenian churches, 20,000 graves and more than 5,000 tombstones have been destroyed.

The resolution emphasizes that the elimination of traces of the Armenian cultural heritage in Nagorno Karabakh is carried out not only for damaging or destroying it, but also for falsifying history by presenting it as the so-called Caucasian-Albanian, stating that on February 3, 2022 Minister Anar Karimov announced the establishment of a working group responsible for eliminating “traces invented by Armenians on Albanian religious temples.”

The resolution admits that the elimination of the Armenian cultural heritage is part of a wider systemic, state-level policy of anti-Armenianism, hatred of Armenians, encouraged by the Azerbaijani authorities, including glorification of violence, anti-humanism, and territorial claims to the Republic of Armenia, threatening peace and security in the South Caucasus.

The resolution calls on Azerbaijan to renounce its maximalist goals, belligerent approaches, territorial claims to Armenia and to engage in good faith in the negotiations on the final status of Nagorno Karabakh under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group.

The resolution calls on Azerbaijan to fully comply with the interim order of the International Court of Justice, namely to “refrain from suppressing the Armenian language, destroying the Armenian cultural heritage or eliminating the historical Armenian cultural presence by other means, or restricting the entry of Armenians to those sites”, stressing that any new case of destruction or alteration of cultural heritage must be immediately addressed by the international community.

It calls on the European Commission to use all available levers to prevent the destruction and alteration of cultural heritage in Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as the prevention of vandalism.

RFE/RL Armenian Report – 02/27/2022

                                        Sunday, February 27, 2022
EU Said To Waive Visas For Armenians Fleeing Ukraine
February 27, 2022
UKRAINE- Ukranian soldiers help a woman and children cross the border at Sighetu 
Marmatiei Customs point, in Baia Mare, Romania, February 26, 2022.
The European Union has waived its visa requirements for Armenian citizens 
fleeing the intensifying fighting in Ukraine, according to Armenia’s Foreign 
Ministry.
The ministry announced on Saturday that they do not need Schengen visas to enter 
Ukraine’s EU neighbors -- Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania -- from the 
embattled country invaded by Russia. The visa waiver is meant for those 
Armenians who want to return to Armenia, it said in a statement.
“Other options for evacuating them from Ukraine are also being considered,” said 
the statement. “At the same time, we inform that the Republic of Armenia is 
ready to receive our compatriots, their family members, as well as other 
refugees.”
The Foreign Ministry also released emergency phone numbers of Armenia’s embassy 
in Kyiv and consulates in the Ukrainian Black Sea city of Odessa and 
Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia.
A family exits the border after crossing over to flee violence in Ukraine, in 
Medyka, Poland, February 25, 2022.
The Armenian diplomatic missions in Ukraine continued to operate even after 
Russia launched the full-scale military attack on February 24. Nor did Yerevan 
urge Armenian citizens to leave the country.
All flights between Armenia and Ukraine were cancelled immediately after the 
start of the Russian invasion.
Ukraine is officially home to some 120,000 ethnic Armenians. According to 
leaders of the Armenian community there, their actual number is much larger and 
only half of them are Ukrainian citizens.
The United Nations estimated on Friday that at least 120,000 Ukrainians have so 
far fled into Poland and elsewhere. Long lines were seen at border crossings in 
western Ukraine as refugees arrived by trains, automobiles, buses, and by foot, 
fleeing Europe’s largest ground war since the end of World War II.
Putin Again Talks To Armenian, Azeri Leaders
February 27, 2022
Russia - Russian President Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev 
and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian make statements to the press after 
talks in Sochi, November 26, 2021.
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with the leaders of Armenia and 
Azerbaijan by phone on Saturday evening as Russia continued its military assault 
on Ukraine.
Official Russian and Armenian sources did not mention the intensifying war in 
their statements on Putin’s call with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian.
The Kremlin said they continued to discuss “practical aspects” of implementing 
Armenian-Azerbaijani agreements brokered by Moscow during and after the 2020 war 
in Nagorno-Karabakh. Those include “issues of ensuring security and stability on 
the Armenian-Azerbaijani border,” it said without elaborating.
Pashinian’s press office reported, for its part, that the two leaders also 
discussed Russian-Armenian relations as well as unspecified “issues related to 
activities” of Russian-led alliances of former Soviet republics.
According to a separate statement released by the Kremlin, Putin talked to 
Aliyev “in continuation” of their meeting held in Moscow on February 22 two days 
before Russia launched a full-scale military attack on Ukraine.
At that meeting, they signed a joint declaration on “allied cooperation” between 
their nations. The declaration says, among other things, that Russia and 
Azerbaijan will avoid “any actions directed against each other” and could 
consider “providing each other with military assistance.”
ARMENIA -- Azerbaijani (L) and Armenian army posts at the Sotk gold mine on the 
Armenian-Azerbaijani border, June 18, 2021
Putin said after the talks that he and Aliyev also agreed to closely cooperate 
in implementing the Russian-brokered agreements on the opening of economic and 
transport links between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the demarcation of their long 
border. Moscow will keep helping Baku and Yerevan to settle their “border 
issues” and other “acute problems,” added the Russian leader.
The Russian ambassador to Armenia, Sergei Kopyrkin, likewise said on Saturday 
that Moscow will use its close ties with the two South Caucasus nations to 
prevent fresh fighting on the border.
“And of course, it is important for us that Armenia, the Armenian people feel 
safe,” Kopyrkin told the Armenpress news agency. “The guarantee for this is our 
allied relations and our countries’ policy to deepen and strengthen them.”
In their latest phone call, Aliyev and Putin also discussed the dramatic 
developments in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said earlier on Saturday that Aliyev and 
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have offered to help organize talks 
between Russia and Ukraine. Although Zelenskiy welcomed the offer, hopes for an 
immediate move toward talks appeared dim.
Reprinted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL
Copyright (c) 2022 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc.
1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.
 

Asbarez: Russia Claims Putin-Aliyev ‘Allied Cooperation’ Accord Will Not Impact Ties with Yerevan

Presidents Ilham Aliyev (left) of Azerbaijan and Vladimir Putin of Russia sign an “allied cooperation” agreement in the Kremlin on Feb. 22

Moscow on Friday claimed that an “allied cooperation” agreement signed by the presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan earlier this week will not impede relations between Russia and Armenia.

“Moscow will comply with all its obligations toward Yerevan, which is a long-standing and close ally of Russia,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said during a briefing.

“We are convinced that the signing of the aforementioned declaration with Baku will strengthen trilateral cooperation between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia,” Zakharova added.

She also added that taking into consideration the changed geopolitical realities in the region, Russia continuously updates the bilateral treaty base with Armenia, which currently contains about 200 documents.

Zakharova insisted that the Moscow-Baku agreement will, in fact, strengthen regional cooperation.

“As for the Karabakh settlement and the normalization of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, the declaration itself on allied cooperation with Azerbaijan contains a passage that the parties will mutually facilitate efforts to implement the provisions of the agreements of the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia of November 9, 2020 as well as January 11 and November 26, 2021,” Zakharova said, pointing to one of its clauses that she said “stipulates that the sides cooperate in solving the tasks resulting from previously reached agreements and closely cooperate in establishing a long-term peace between the states of the region.”

At the conclusion of their meeting in Moscow on Tuesday, the presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan, Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev, signed an “allied cooperation” agreement that will serve as a blueprint for the advancement of relations between the two countries.

In addition to the clause about the post-2020 war agreements, the Moscow-Baku agreement also has military cooperation stipulations.

“The Parties will deepen interaction between the armed forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Azerbaijan, including holding joint operational and combat training activities, as well as developing other areas of bilateral military cooperation,” the agreement stated. “The Parties, taking into account the high level of military-technical cooperation, interact on issues of provision of modern weapons and military equipment, as well as other areas of mutual interest.”

Armenia’s economic activity index grows 15.4% in January 2022

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 12:43, 25 February, 2022

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 25, ARMENPRESS. The economic activity index of Armenia has increased by 15.4% in January 2022 compared to January 2021. However, the figure of January of this year has declined by 45% compared to December 2021, the Statistical Committee reports.

The industrial production volume increased by 16.6% in January 2022 compared to January 2021, whereas compared to December 2021, it declined by 37.8%.

The construction volume increased by 3%, whereas compared to December, it declined by 86.5%. The increase in trade turnover in January 2022 comprised 11.5%, whereas compared to December 2021, it declined by 41.9%. The volume of services increased by 21.2% in January 2022 compared to January 2021. The decline compared to December 2021 comprised 16.2%.

The consumer price index increased by 7.1% compared to January 2021 and by 1.6% compared to December 2021. The index of industrial production prices increased by 9% compared to January 2021 and by 0.9% compared to December 2021. The electricity production volume increased by 19.2%.

60.4% increase was registered in external trade turnover volumes in January 2022 compared to the same month of 2021. However, compared to December 2021, this figure declined by 28.7%. The export in January 2022 increased by 53.2%, and the import by 65%.