expectations of renewed fight between Armenia and Azerbaijan rising

PanARMENIAN.Net

Stratfor: expectations of renewed fight between
Armenia and Azerbaijan rising
04.07.2007 15:21 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Expectations of a renewed fight
between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno
Karabakh region are rising, since Azerbaijan has
started using the huge windfall of cash from its new
pipeline to quintuple its defense budget. This time,
the conflict could serve as a spark for the larger
struggle between the United States and Russia, said
the experts of Stratfor intelligence center.

The conflict between Armenia and its neighbor
Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno Karabakh region
has crescendoed in recent months, since Azerbaijan has
started seeing the enormous cash windfall from its new
pipeline and Armenia has scrambled to secure a
protective Russian presence within its borders. But
the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is about
more than the two states and their disputed territory;
the United States and Russia are using that conflict
as a foothold to strengthen their positions in the
region as they try to expel each other, the experts
say.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have long been deadlocked over
the small sliver of land between the two states,
though the conflict has been relatively dormant since
the 1994 cease-fire. Technically, Nagorno-Karabakh is
within Azeri territory, though it is controlled by
Armenia. International pressure, lack of support from
every nation but Russia and Iran, and fear of Azeri
retaliation have kept Armenia from annexing the
territory. Azerbaijan has been held back from retaking
the land due to international pressure and the Azeri
military’s relative weakness. Russia has maintained a
shaky and controversial balance by supporting both
sides.

However, Azerbaijan began to see the possibility of
change in 2006 with the completion of its
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, which Western
companies developed to feed oil to Europe. Azerbaijan
not only became increasingly pro-Western, but it also
saw tremendous new income. Azerbaijan’s president has
already decided how he wants to spend his country’s
newfound wealth: on defense. In 2004, Azerbaijan’s
defense spending was approximately $175 million, but
by the beginning of 2008, the country will begin
spending at least $1 billion on defense. Armenia
recently increased its defense spending by 20 percent
— from $125 million to $150 million, which obviously
pales in comparison to Azerbaijan’s increase.
Azerbaijan’s spending will go mostly toward air
offensive capabilities, with Armenia’s going to air
defense, though both now are looking to expand their
ground capabilities.

Armenia simply lacks the influx of energy income that
Azerbaijan has. The enormous Armenian diaspora inside
the United States has ensured that Armenia is one of
the largest recipients of U.S. foreign aid, but
Armenia’s neighbors — Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey
— have shunned it economically and politically,
leaving it with little opportunity for trade or
expansion. The one neighbor Armenia has an open
relationship with is Iran. In March, Iran and Armenia
opened the Iran-Armenia natural gas pipeline; Iran
ships natural gas north and Armenia converts the
natural gas to electricity to export back south to
Iran. The pipeline itself is owned by Russia, as is
much of Armenia’s energy infrastructure, the experts
note, reports.

www.stratfor.com

Turkey On Trial

TURKEY ON TRIAL
Deniz Ozdemir

Foreign Policy

July 3 2007

BULENT KILIC/AFP/Getty ImagesMonday marked the start of the murder
trial of Hrant Dink, the editor of a Turkish-Armenian newspaper who
was shot in broad daylight outside his Istanbul office in January.

Dink’s writings on the Armenian genocide had made him a target for both
the Turkish government and ultra-nationalist groups. His assassination
by an angry 17-year-old six months ago sparked something remarkable
in the Turkish public: Thousands gathered to express solidarity with
the Armenian minority and outrage against restrictions on free speech
and growing ultra-nationalist sentiment.

And for a fleeting second, the government seemed dedicated to real
reform and perhaps even the eventual abolishment of Article 301,
which was used to try to silence Dink and other famed writers such
as Orhan Pamuk and Elif Shafak for allegedly "insulting Turkishness."

But when it finally comes time for justice to be served for Dink,
things get messy. The trial, which will take place behind closed
doors since the main defendant is a minor, is already attracting
heavy scrutiny. Human Rights Watch warned recently that evidence
presented at the trial may raise questions about possible collusion
or negligence on the part of security forces. The real test for the
Turkish judiciary will be if it can adequately prosecute all those
involved-even if this means lifting the huge rock off some dirty
internal dealings. In an article in the New York Times, Fethiye Cetin,
the Dink family’s lawyer, expressed his concern:

The gang does not consist of these suspects only," Ms. Cetin said
of the 18 defendants, according to the news agency. "It is far more
planned and organized. There is almost an intentional misconduct of
the gendarmerie and police in this incident."

Ensuring that all those involved in Dink’s murder are exposed and
punished is essential not just for his family, but for Turkey as
a country. I’m pretty sure the folks in Brussels will be following
this case closely. After all, the last thing Turkey needs is another
excuse for Europe to slam the door shut on Turkish membership.

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/node/5338

Action Of Protest In Protection Of Radio Liberty Takes Place

ACTION OF PROTEST IN PROTECTION OF RADIO LIBERTY TAKES PLACE

Noyan Tapan
Jul 2, 2007

YEREVAN, JULY 2, NOYAN TAPAN. The Transparency International
international organization’s Armenian office, the Helsinki Committee
of Armenia and a number of other NGOs on July 2 organized an action
of protest against the amendment to the RA law "On Television and
Radio" proposed by the RA government, which, in the opinion of the
participants of the action of protest, is unequivocally aimed against
the broadcasting of the Radio Liberty.

It should be mentioned that the bill adopted in the first reading on
June 29 at the NA envisages to "unanimously forbid activity of other
organizations on the frequences of the Public TV and Radio Company."

The action participants moved from the RA government building to
the RA National Assembly, their mouths tied with white ribbons. The
demonstrants placed slogans "To Close Liberty: For You, Armenia,"
"1937-2007," "Shame on the Feudal Clan and Its Myrmidons" near the
NA building.

As Noyan Tapan correspondent was informed by Amalia Kostanian, the
Chairwoman of the Transparency International Armenian Office, the goal
of the action of protest is to prevent adoption of the bill by the
RA MPs in the second reading. "We have no doubt that the law will be
adopted, as we have self-will in our country," she mentioned meanwhile.

Dink Murder Trial Opens In Istanbul

DINK MURDER TRIAL OPENS IN ISTANBUL

armradio.am
02.07.2007 10:33

The trial of 18 people charged in connection with the murder of
prominent Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink is to open in the
city of Istanbul.

Mr. Dink, 53, was gunned down outside his newspaper’s office in
Istanbul in January.

Unemployed teenager Ogun Samast is accused of carrying out the
shooting.

Prosecutors say he has confessed. Seventeen-year-old Samast, from the
town of Trabzon, was known to have links to nationalists. He faces
a lengthy jail sentence if convicted.

Two of the other 17 defendants, Yasin Hayal and Erhan Tuncel, are
accused of leading a nationalist group and ordering the murder.

The trial is closed to the public because Mr. Samast is a minor.

Khachkar In Memory Of Special Regiment Officers Killed In Fight For

KHACHKAR IN MEMORY OF SPECIAL REGIMENT OFFICERS KILLED IN FIGHT FOR LACHIN CORRIDOR ERECTED IN BERDZOR

arminfo
2007-07-02 13:04:00

A khachkar (Armenian national cross-stone) was ceremonially opened
in the town of Berdzor (Lachin) in memory for the special regiment
officers killed in the fight for Lachin corridor in 1992-1994.

The monument was erected with the support of the Union of Special
Regiment Veterans public organization headed by Deputy Defence Minister
of Armenia Lt. General Gurgen Melkonyan. Veterans of the special
regiment throughout Armenia and NKR attended the ceremony. Names of
62 killed officers are engraved on the cross stone that was erected
in the area of Memorial Complex for the Killed in Karabakh War. "We
have fulfilled our duty to the killed compatriots. It is not only a
monument, but also a lesson for young generation. No one is forgotten
and nothing is forgotten," Gurgen Melkonyan said. The Union of Special
Regiment Veterans intends to erect similar khachkars in all the areas
were their colleagues were killed. In Omar Gorge, Kubatli. "On this
gala day I want to wish patience to the relatives and the friends of
the killed. We will not allow a new war. The borders of our motherland
are protected. We will never give the enemy the areas were your
kindred were killed," Lt. General Melkonyan said.

Armenia Should take Next Step to Development of Pluralistic Democr.

Armenia Should Make the Next Step Towards Development of Pluralistic
Forms of Statehood and Democracy

By Oksana Musaelyan, ArmInfo. June 15, 2007
2007-06-28 15:05:00

An Interview with Head of OSCE Yerevan Office, Ambassador Vladimir
Pryakhin

Activity of Yerevan Office of the Organization for Security and
Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) is considered most successful among the
OSCE participating States. It has become possible due to your personal
merit, particularly, your active involvement as the Head of the OSCE
Yerevan Office, and your successful co-operation with local authorities
. How effective do you consider Office activities nowadays?

Over the last 3.5 years activities of the Office have expanded and
become effective, which is evident not only from office activities’
indicators, but in the first place due to Armenia’s current state.
Armenia is a full-fledged national and sovereign state, enjoying
authority, respect and recognition of the world community. Significant
(positive) changes are observed in the country: the country has
reformed its state and political structure turning from a country with
strong presidential system into a parliamentary-presidential republic.
This is, undoubtedly, a progressive step forward in line with the
present political realities. The country politically has become more
stable and the authority of the government has considerably grown,
which is a positive moment, indeed. In future, I’d like to see
development of the civil society and mass media, so that they can find
their place in the political process. Speaking politically, Armenia
needs to make another step towards development of pluralistic forms of
statehood and democracy.

The best guarantee of the Office’s success is the mutual desire of the
OSCE and the Republic of Armenia on the state and public levels for
cooperation, adoption and dissemination of OSCE values and standards
throughout Armenia, for democracy and freedoms, as well as new
democratic institutions, cannot be imposed from outside. It requires a
serious, deep and sincere desire for modernization, integration to
European values, which is evident here. There is no political force in
Armenia that would be against this. Naturally, it helps the Office`s
work.Which were the priority areas of the OSCE’s activity in Armenia
when you headed the Office? What essential tasks have you accomplished
during these years?

The Office contributed to the structural reforms in the country. We had
worked with the Armenian authorities on the Constitutional amendments
for a long time. Now, 1.5 a year later, one can say that it was a
successful contribution to the country’s development in very
complicated conditions. The Constitutional amendments have made the
country’s political structure more advanced despite of some subjective
factors. Besides, the request of the Armenian authorities and many OSCE
participating States for increasing the economic and ecological
component of our Office’s activity has been largely met. Now, more than
one-fourth of our budget is spent on economic and ecological projects.
Aarhus movement, the so-called `green democracy’ movement, has been
successfully implemented in Armenia because the right to environmental
information is one of the fundamental human rights. Currently, we have
9 Aarhus Centres throughout Armenia opened with our support.Moreover,
we have responded to the request of the Armenian authorities to assist
in elimination of rocket fuel component nicknamed mélange, which has
been stored in Armenia since 1989. We have succeeded in the
implementation of this project due to close co-operation with local
authorities and support of the international community. The
implementation of this project is nearing completion. It is 872 tons of
environmentally hazardous substance. By eliminating melange Armenia has
become an example for other states, also as solving global problems.

The Office also has its contribution to the work on electoral
legislation. Does the present Electoral Code meet the European
standards or it needs further improvement? Yes, the Office contributed
to the country improving the electoral legislation. Now, it allows
conducting free and fair elections if there is a political will. It
does not mean that the document needs further improvement. One should
not overdo it, as continuous changes may become an obstacle to the
election process itself, the work of commissions, and even to voters.

What do you think of the present political culture in the context of
the past elections? How would you assess the general political and
social situation in the country?

The situation is more stable, people are more confident in their
future, in general. I’d call the situation as favorable. Despite the
disagreements between isolated political segments, there is a national
consensus on basic issues of the country’s development. It is positive,
indeed. However, there is also a negative part or a task for the
future.

Thus, the system of political pluralism in the country needs
improvement in order for both the parliamentary and non-parliamentary
political forces have an influence on the political process and
decision-making. Returning to the one-party system of the past years,
which brought nothing good should not happen. At present Armenia has
grown to the level where the fight for power can and should take place
through making comparisons of constructive programmes of
social-economic development of the country. Thus, just declaring
conceptual views of the policy, and particularly, the social policy,
and a proposal for raising pensions and improving the electricity
supply system, for instance, are not enough. Such programmes must be a
basis for comparison of political platforms and a serious claim for
power. From this point of view, I think that all the political parties
in Armenia face heavy tasks. Moreover, Armenia is speeding up the
process of integration into Europe. The political culture in Armenia is
one of the highest in the post-Soviet area due to the local traditions.
Nevertheless, Armenia still has much to do. Despite their good
political insight, Armenians are using it in the Soviet archaic form,
which is outdated. Now, it needs to follow progressive experience of
various democracies, and Armenia succeeds in it, especially in the
legislative sphere. However, much is still to be done to fulfill the
new legislation.

Do you think the 15-percentage gender quota in the parliament is enough
for strengthening women’s role in it?

It seems it has not changed much in reality since there were 7 women in
the parliament of the former convocation, and they are 12 now. No, it
is an essential change. The women in the parliament grew in number
almost twice. Every vote is 1.3% of the total; so 12 votes are
additional 6-7%. My view on it is that `little pigeons can carry great
messages.’ In principal, the quoting has not received a unique-estimate
even in different OSCE participating States. Our position is that
Armenian women must participate in decision-making especially in
politics and in the parliament. Therefore we positively considered the
new quota and the amendment to it saying that women must not go last in
the party list. I know all the women elected to the parliament. These
are active and well-prepared participants to the political process. I
think it has seriously strengthened the parliament.

New persons, particularly, businessmen, have come to replace many
politicians who had formed the country’s political culture for years.
What impact it will have on big politics?

Frankly speaking, we have not yet looked at the increase of businessmen
in the parliament, as it is not essential for us. It is more important
that they are elected through free and fair election. The material
welfare of deputies should not be regarded when assessing them as
political figures. After all, a man can use his/her authority, wealth
and brain for the welfare of the country.

What would you advise to your successor? Can you name him already?

The chairmanship is currently selecting the candidates. I know that
these are rather competent candidates. I’d like my successor to
continue what has been started. The project `Melange’ must be
successfully brought to an end within the coming months. Moreover, the
police reform project aimed at creating a new democratic police needs
further attention. Much has already been done, but the police needs to
acquire new democratic skills of dealing with people, so that they feel
themselves as servants of the people rather than their supervisors. We
are very grateful to the donor-states, particularly, to Belgium,
Finland, Norway, Switzerland, Germany, Holland, USA, Canada, which
contributed to both the `Melange’ and the Police Assistance Programmes.

Contacts Between Armenian And Azeri Publics To Promote Karabakh Conf

CONTACTS BETWEEN ARMENIAN AND AZERI PUBLICS TO PROMOTE KARABAKH CONFLICT RESOLUTION

PanARMENIAN.Net
29.06.2007 13:44 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The Armenian President met yesterday with
Armenian and Azeri science and art workers, who undertook a
Stepanakert-Yerevan-Baku trip with the assistance Ambassadors and
Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, the RA leader’s press office
reports.

During the meeting Robert Kocharian welcomed the initiative noting
that establishment of conflicts and creation of atmosphere of trust
between the publics will make significant contribution to the Nagorno
Karabakh conflict resolution.

Common ground for cooperation should be found and Armenia is ready
for the process, according to him.

Representatives of the Azeri intelligentsia said friendly and partner
relations should be established between the elder generations gradually
engaging the young publics. After the meeting with Robert Kocharian
the delegation departed for Baku to meet with Azerbaijani President
Ilham Aliyev.

When in Stepanakert, they held a meeting with Nagorno Karabakh
President Arkady Ghukasian.

Armenian Assistance Fund Is Ready To Take Part In Restoration Progra

ARMENIAN ASSISTANCE FUND IS READY TO TAKE PART IN RESTORATION PROGRAMS OF RURAL COMMUNITIES OF ARMENIA

Noyan Tapan
Jun 29 2007

YEREVAN, JUNE 29, NOYAN TAPAN. It was mentioned at the June 29 meeting
held between Robert Kocharian, the RA President, and the delegation
headed by Gevorg Hovnanian, the Founder Chairman of the Armenian
Assistance Fund of America, that the fund has implemented rather
serious programs since Armenia became independent.

Archbishop Khazhak Parsamian, the President of the Armenian Assistance
Fund and the Head of the U.S. Eastern diocese, declared that the
delegation has arrived in Armenia in order to take part in the
opening ceremony of the new building disposed for the activities of
the Armenian Assistance Fund in Yerevan.

The members of the delegation made assertions that the Armenian
Assistance Fund, true to its mission, will continue to contribute to
the development and progress of Armenia. They also mentioned that
they envisage to discuss the development programs of the fund for
the coming ten years at the end of the visit.

According to the members of the organization, it is time to pass from
assistance programs to development ones. The Armenian Assistance Fund,
headed by Gevorg Hovnanian, expressed a willingness to take an active
part in the restoration program of rural communities.

According to the information provided to Noyan Tapan by the RA
President’s Press Office, Robert Kocharian welcomed the benefactor’s
desire and considered the fact of overcoming the disproportionate
development of the capital and rural communities a problem of vital
importance for the government. He also mentioned that serious measures
are being taken in that direction and that there are great expectations
from different programs.

State Budgetary Revenues From Capital Operations Grow By 27.1% In Ja

STATE BUDGETARY REVENUES FROM CAPITAL OPERATIONS GROW BY 27.1% IN JANUARY-MAY 2007 ON SAME PERIOD OF LAST YEAR

Noyan Tapan
Jun 29 2007

YEREVAN, JUNE 29, NOYAN TAPAN. In January-May 2007, the RA state
budgetary revenues from capital operations made over 6.8 bln drams
(18.9 mln USD), 6.3 bln drams of which was received from alienation
of lands representing state property and 540.3 mln drams was received
from sale of fixed assets.

According to the RA Ministry of Finance and Economy, the program
of revenues from capital operations for the first half of 2007 was
fulfilled by 60.4%.

The growth of these revenues on the same period of last year made 27.1%
or about 1.5 bln drams.

In the first five months of this year, official transfers to the
state budget made 496.6 mln drams. Particularly, 280.1 mln drams was
allocated by the UK for financing the programs on regional development
of Tavush and Gegharkunik regions. 211.7 mln drams was received under
the mutual understanding memorandum between the US and the RA on
assistance for poverty reduction in Armenia, and 4.8 mln drams was
transferred to off-budget accounts of state institutions.

BAKU: Armenian Foreign Minister’s Calls On Turkey To Open Borders In

ARMENIAN FOREIGN MINISTER’S CALLS ON TURKEY TO OPEN BORDERS IN VAIN

Trend News Agency, Azerbaijan
June 26 2007

Armenian Foreign Minister, Vardan Oskanyan, urged after the meeting
with his Turkish counterpart, Abdullah Gul, that Turkey should open
the borers with Armenia, according to the reports of Turkish media.

In his interview with journalists Oskanyan noted the necessity to
begin economic cooperation between the two countries. He voiced his
hope that after parliamentary elections in Turkey to be held on 22
July the new Government will review its position regarding the borders.

Turkey closed the borders with Armenia in 1993 as a protest to
Armenia’s occupation of some 20% of Azerbaijani territory. There are
disagreements between Ankara and Yerevan on the fictitious genocide
of Armenian people which according to official Yerevan was committed
by Turks in 1915.

Ankara informed of impossibility to open the borders until Armenia
vacates the occupied Azerbaijani territories. Turkey proposed to
establish joint commission on study of the events of 1915.

According to Oskanyan, Armenia will view establishment of a commission
provided that normal diplomatic relations are established between
the countries, according to Reuters. Oskanyan criticized Turkey’s
proposal on establishment of a commission and said that the proposal
was an attempt to prevent parliaments from recognition of the events
of 1915 as genocide of Armenians.