Author: Markos Nalchajian

In September 2020, Azerbaijan attacked the self-declared ethnic Armenian enclave in Nagorno-Karabakh. When the guns fell silent, Azerbaijan held several hundred Armenian POWs, only some of whom they released in accordance with Baku’s ceasefire obligations. Subsequently, some videos surfaced showing Azerbaijani forces summarily executing some POWs; other videos show torture.

Russia, the United States, and the European Parliament have all officially demanded Azerbaijan release the POWs.

CONGRESS SHOULD CUT VOA’S FUNDING UNTIL IT RETURNS TO CORE MISSION

Azerbaijan responds in two ways. First, it argues that many prisoners are not POWs, but rather are held for other crimes. Second, in many cases, it simply denies holding Armenians who have been seen alive in Azerbaijani custody.

Azerbaijan is not the first country to seize and illegally hold POWs long after a ceasefire or armistice.

North Korea continued to hold many American POWs after the armistice, transferring many into Communist-Chinese custody. The fate of American POWs in Vietnam was, for decades, an impediment to the restoration of relations.

Perhaps the case most analogous to those of the Armenian POWs today was a brief border war between Eritrea and Djibouti in June 2008, as Eritrean forces sought to push into Djibouti in pursuit of a manufactured border claim backed neither by credible maps nor in the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. Retreating Eritrean troops seized several Djiboutians, both soldiers and civilians. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, whose police state resembles Azerbaijan minus the oil wealth, proceeded to deny holding any Djiboutians.

Enter Qatar, whose quiet diplomacy finally led Eritrea to release prisoners whose treatment while in custody had been atrocious.

Qatar has also been an intermediary in talks to negotiate the release of Western prisoners held by the Taliban, and has acted as an intermediary as Iran Special Envoy Rob Malley seeks to win the release of Iranian-American hostages held by the Islamic Republic.

Qatar can be a controversial country. I have long criticized it for its ties to groups like Hamas and the Taliban, and its sponsorship of various Muslim Brotherhood groups.

Realistically, however, those same relationships can make it a useful intermediary if done in a manner that neither rewards nor empowers terrorists. Azerbaijan is a satrapy of Turkey, a state with which Qatar has strong ties. Perhaps then, Qatari diplomats can turn their attention to the Caucasus.

They can make hostage release their brand and demonstrate that the religion of the hostages is immaterial to the humanitarian motivation of their involvement. At the same time, Qatari involvement can give Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev a face-saving way to do the right thing.

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It is time to bring the Armenian POWs home. Qatar could be the means to do it.

Michael Rubin (@mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/qatar-should-help-free-armenian-prisoners-of-war

By Nourah Khan
Exclusive to The Times Kuwait

Armenia is one of the most beautiful countries in the Caucasus, characterized by its charming natural landscapes, distinctive tourist sites, and a history that spans eons. The moment you step into the country, you are engulfed by the friendliness of locals, which adds to the beauty of a trip to this enchanting country.

Armenia is not a very large country, and within a week you could be able to traverse the major tourist attractions in this place. The most appropriate time to visit Armenia and enjoy its beautiful atmosphere and moderate temperatures are from April to June.

Whatever type of tourism you prefer, you will find what you need in Armenia. So if you are looking for a new destination for family tourism, or you want to spend your honeymoon in a magical place to create unforgettable memories, or perhaps you prefer nature hikes, exotic sports, heritage tourism, or just partying and other fun activities, you can do all of this and more in one country, Armenia.

In Armenia you can find different natural landscapes and a country that is steeped in culture and heritage with a history that extends back more than 3,500 years. Many cultural and historical monuments dot the country, and befittingly enough the country is often referred to as an ‘Open Museum’.

But this does not mean that travelers who are seeking relaxation and enjoying nature will not find any such venues in the country; quite the opposite. Armenia is a country with outstanding natural beauty, which gives visitors all the ingredients for relaxation and unwinding.

As for prices, it is one of the countries that will not cost you much to travel and stay. The cost of living as a tourist is reasonable and appropriate, and of course cheaper than most places in Europe. So I think it is suitable for people who are on a limited budget.

A visit to any city or town in Armenia makes you feel quite comfortable, because you will notice that a large number of Armenians were born in Gulf countries and know a lot about our cultures, customs and character. On knowing that I am from Kuwait, I was warmly welcomed into homes of total strangers and plied with food and drink. And, speaking about food, Armenian food is quite similar to what we have here in Kuwait and the Gulf.

The most important thing I particularly noticed about Armenia is the high level of security that prevails across the country. I used to go out for walks alone in the streets at night without encountering any untoward incident.

Some of the amazing places I visited in Armenia include:
Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, is a city of contradictions where modern lifestyle trappings compete for space with the old. While few traces of the city’s storied ancient history are visible today, much of the extant architecture is dominated by stolid Soviet-era buildings interspersed by numerous beautiful gardens, parks and other greenery. The city was once called the Pink City based on the color of the stones that were used in building architectural artifacts and houses.

Another place to visit is the town of Dilijan, which teems with health resorts, and is also one of the places with an amazing natural beauty. Every corner and space appears embellished with green trees, colorful gardens and fountains. Located on the banks of the Aghstev River, Dilijan lies to the northeast of the capital Yerevan and enjoys a mild climate throughout the year.

The town’s many health resorts and natural beauty, as well as entertainment places with exciting activities, attract a lot of tourists year round. And, while in Dilijan do not miss visiting the town’s other major attractions, including the Old Town, Dilijan Museum, the famous healing mineral water fountains and the World War II Memorial.

And, no matter what, do not miss tasting Armenian cuisine, as it is considered the source kitchen for much of today’s Middle-Eastern cuisines, with their slant towards poultry, meat and fish. Famous local dishes vary in taste between European and Eastern preferences, and there are also dishes that appeal to our Gulf tastes and flavors, especially ones such as the Armenian grilled fish.

Among the other beautiful cities that must be on your tourist schedule is the city of Jermuk. The city of Jermuk in Armenia is one of the most famous places for medical tourism, as it is characterized by its mineral waters and mild climate throughout the year. The city contains more than 40 thermal springs that people go to for treatment for various diseases and you also get to see the second largest waterfall in Armenia, with the Jermuk Waterfall cascading down from a height of over 70 meters.

Another interesting place that should be visited in Armenia is Lake Sevan, also known as the ‘Jewel of the Caucasus’. It is one of the highest freshwater lakes in the world, located at an altitude of 1,900 meters above sea level. As a result of its height, the weather in Lake Sevan is moderate to cold even in the summer days, which makes it an important attraction for tourists, especially tourists coming from hot countries such as the Arab Gulf states. You can also enjoy camping or doing some water sports when you visit Lake Sevan in the summer, at very reasonable prices.

There is something else you should not miss when visiting Armenia, Mount Ararat mentioned in the Bible and associated with Noah’s Ark. Although it is located on Turkish soil, Mount Ararat is one of the most majestic mountains in the world, which can be seen from the Armenian lands. Although it lies outside the borders of modern Armenia, the mountain is a national symbol of Armenia and has been considered a sacred place by Armenians for ages.

In Armenia, you will not have any difficulty in interacting with others, because English is the most common language after the Russian language, especially in the capital, Yerevan. But moving to the countryside, Russian is the most popular foreign language, and rarely you can come across Armenians who speak French, especially in shops, restaurants and hotels.

For my transportation throughout Armenia, I relied on a tour company and a tour guide. Modes of transportation in Armenia are of high quality, given the number of tourists who come to the country most of the year, with domestic transportation divided between the metro, buses, mini-buses and taxis.

I also recommend that you travel with a knowledgeable tour guide so that they can explain the stories, histories and traditions behind statues, buildings, and other attractions in the country.

I believe that the opening of direct flights between the two countries could be mutually beneficial. More visitors from Kuwait could travel easily to Armenia, and more Armenian fresh products could arrive in this country, not to mention the significant Armenian community in Kuwait who would also benefit from such direct flights.

Noura Khan, a travel influencer and content creator, is a Kuwaiti national, holds a degree in law from Kuwait University and has worked as a journalist prior to taking up a position in the government. In 2018 she started blogging on travel and visited more than 57 countries since. She has more than 54k followers on her blog post @nourajtraveller is well appreciated for content and travel information. Noura writes exclusively for The Times Kuwait on her travel visits.

The Republic of Armenia has been under attack by Azerbaijan. Baku may not halt its aggression any time soon. If matters worsen for Armenia, Russia may offer the ultimate trade of sovereignty for security.

The West needs to understand that Armenia, a rising democratic state, strongly linked to Western businesses in IT and ranked 11 out of 165 in the world for economic freedom, is significantly vulnerable to larger powers of the region and dependent on authoritarian Russia and Iran for assistance. Each is facing its own domestic issues and cannot be depended on by Yerevan for certain defense assistance.

Armenian suffered military and civilian casualties in the thousands since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War (“2nd N-K War”). Armenia is an allied treaty member with Russia under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). However, CSTO’s most powerful member is also allies with Azerbaijan.  Russian President Vladimir Putin declared Azerbaijan a “strategic ally” two days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. So, any media labeling that Russia and Armenia are exclusive allies in the South Caucasus misses the mark.

The relationship formed as an Armenian short-term solution during the turbulent post-Soviet 1990s, through today and exacerbated into long-term weakness. The year was 1993. Armenia was strongly positioned after winning the 1st N-K War following a Soviet referendum in the N-K Oblast to separate from Stalin’s incorporation into the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. Post-Soviet Russia was the target of heavy discontent due to Azerbaijani nationalism.

According to the memoirs of former Greek Ambassador to Armenia, Leonidas Chrysanthopoulos, Armenia’s modern security dependence on Russia was conceived under the guise of thwarting a Turkish invasion in October 1993. The Ambassador writes:

[Armenian] President Levon Ter-Petrosyan was convinced, based on information that he had received from serval sources, that Turkey would try to take advantage of serious events within Russia in order to occupy Armenia, using as a pretext either the Kurdish question or the protection of the Nakhichevan enclave. He had intelligence reports that the Turkish National Security Council had recently examined the possibility of the Turkish army’s making incursions into Iraq and Armenia in order to eliminate PKK guerillas. That same evening, Turkish Armed Forces penetrated Iraq in hot pursuit of PKK fighters.

Levon Ter-Petrosyan, a historian, son to Armenian Genocide survivors and raised outside his homeland, probably was biased to think that Turkey (which at that time and today denies the Armenian Genocide’s existence) would use Kurdish insurgents as casus belli to attack Armenia. Boris Yeltsin, President of the new Russian Federation, was seeking political legitimacy from the broken former Soviet republics, so the two found common interest. Armenia garnered Russian troops on the Turkish-Armenian border while Yeltsin gained a political ally from one of the first post-Soviet republics. This short era likely marked the highest point in Armenian-Russian relations.

What Ter-Petrosyan did not conceive, probably, was a long-term trade of security for Armenia’s sovereignty and prosperity. Armenia throughout the 1990s and into the 2010s essentially became a de facto client state of Russia. To oversimplify many studies and books written on the “Age of the Oligarchs”, Russian-Armenian relations were very friendly, but at the cost of corruption and crime (including one Russian soldier’s murder of Armenian civilians).

Then in 2018 ascended the Moscow skeptic and reformer journalist Nikol Pashinyan in the “Velvet Revolution”. Once he was elected Prime Minister under a new constitutional system, Pashinyan focused attention on reforming systemic Russian corruption. Yet Moscow became less enthusiastic about their Armenian relationship as Pashinyan levied the power of the state to go after his former rivals. Some of Pashinyan’s critics today cite his focus on defeating rivals over strengthening the national security situation.

Armenia under the rule of Russian loyal leaders never solved its paramount security priority to protect ethnic brethren in the self-proclaimed “Republic of Artsakh” (Nagorno-Karabakh Republic). In spring 2020, when Azerbaijan and Armenia fought in the internationally recognized Republic of Armenia, Tavush province, Moscow was absent to support Yerevan. Could this have been due to Pashinyan’s anti-Russian reforms?

The answer is irrelevant. The most import takeaway is that Russian apathy towards its treaty-ally arguably led Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev to rationally conclude: If Russia was absent to defend Armenian recognized territory, Russia would almost certainly not defend Armenian “self-proclaimed” territory of in the “Republic of Artsakh”. So brutal realpolitik enabled Azerbaijan’s attack on ethnic Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh in the fall of that same year, the 2nd N-K War.

However, Azerbaijan did not secure an outright strategic victory on the claimed territory. Today Russian “peacekeepers” permeate what remains of the “Republic of Artsakh”, but it is impossible for Armenian citizens to reach Armenian ethnic population in the Republic of Artsakh without crossing into Azerbaijani territory. The blockade of the Lachin Corridor, the region’s only Armenia to “Republic of Artsakh” route has almost daily been cutoff, as many inside the unrecognized country called for a Berlin Wall airlift of humanitarian aid.

In 2020, Baku had to decide if it was willing to risk attacking Russian military to secure a strategic victory. Yet, in early 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, morale turned in President Aliyev’s favor.

The already non-committal ally Russia arguably became distracted to either diplomatically or militarily thwart Azerbaijani aggression in Baku’s effort to take Nagorno-Karabakh. Then, this past September, Azerbaijan launched successful attacks on Armenian civilian locations, occupied more land, and according to human rights groups, committed war crimes such as desecration of a female soldier and execution of a prisoner of war.

Could the matter become worse for Yerevan if Baku concludes that the cost of attacking Armenia and seizing Nagorno-Karabakh is less than the perceived gain?

The answer is grim when analyzing the situation from a Westphalian point of view. Ethnic cleansing of Armenians just over a century after the Genocide is dependent on authoritarian Russia. Moscow is allied with Azerbaijan and Armenia and calls itself a “peacekeeper”, yet the term “piece keeper” may be more appropriate (See work by Thomas De Waalon how Moscow prefers frozen conflicts in its near abroad to exert maximum influence).

If for the sake of argument, Russia is presently “neutral” in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, the following are 4 notional scenarios wherein Russia moderately or highly supports Armenia or Azerbaijan (note: these scenarios are not necessarily mutually exclusive).

Assessed to be the least likely scenario.

Russia’s war in Ukraine may not only cost their sphere of influence in the South Caucasus, but also in Central Asia. The unequivocal CSTO leader President Putin and the Kremlin may decide that an Armenian defeat would destroy CSTO’s legitimacy to Russia’s other security dependents like Kazakhstan to flee to alternatives such as Turkey or China.

In 2022, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan offered security support to Kazakhstani President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s riots. Turkey would have deployed troops through the “Organization of Turkic States”, a rising fraternal coalition of Turkic nations which may play spoiler to Russia and China in Central Asia for decades to come. This year, China backed Kazakhstan for its refusal to support Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine. Finally, Kazakhstani President Tokayev changed his country’s alphabet from Cyrillic to Latin which may indicate a desire to break from the Russian socio-political sphere.

Russia in this scenario would deploy all available integrated air-defense systems (IADS) including MiGs to shoot down any Azerbaijani drones in the N-K area of responsibility.  Russia would declare itself the guarantor power of what remains of Armenian held N-K territory, including the Lachin corridor, while threating Azerbaijan with force or trade standstill for any further encroachment. Moscow would not seek concessions from Yerevan because it would view saving CSTO’s other members from fleeing its sphere of influence as a higher priority than re-claiming dominance in Armenian politics.

A plausible scenario.

In a notional grand bargain, Armenian Prime Minister and Moscow skeptic Nikol Pashinyan would resign to acquire Russian permanent guarantor power status of remaining “Republic of Artsakh” territory. Russian President Putin would threaten Baku of retaliation should Azerbaijan take another meter of territory. Moscow would also permanently control the Lachin Corridor.

Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan would use the power of the state to drop all investigations of Armenian-Russian corruption past and present and curtail any sentences against the convicted. Finally, Pashinyan could unilaterally proclaim that the Armenian Government would not recognize the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, which recently warranted Russian President Vladimir Putin for arrest.

However, the major problem for Pashinyan’s trade of justice for security cuts through his very own life experience, where he was jailed as a political prisoner during a very Moscow loyal era of Armenian politics. To drop his legacy for the sake of Armenian territorial integrity in Nagorno-Karabakh, the region of his political persecutors and rivals, would highly contrast the former journalist’s revolutionary identity. But even a forgiving Pashinyan himself probably could not rebuild the damage done to Russian-Armenian relations, which have never been more distrustful. These could resume once again, but it would be highly suspect by the Kremlin and the disapproving domestic Armenian population. Western-Armenian economic relations could also destabilize.

Assessed to be the most likely scenario.

Moscow would negotiate directly with Baku to tacitly support Azerbaijani military advance into the Armenian population centers of Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia may also use negotiations as an opportunity for Azerbaijan to tamper harsh rhetoric or action against Iran.

Most importantly, the deal would be caveated for Russia to retain a permanent Russian military base in N-K. Russia would establish a humanitarian corridor through Lachin to evacuate +100,000 Armenians to the Republic of Armenia. Moscow would claim to the international community that it prevented ethnic cleansing through guaranteed safe passage and now is a major broker of tranquility in the South Caucasus, using the “resolved” Nagorno-Karabakh question as the final lynchpin for a lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Armenian PM Nikol Pahinyan’s government would be overthrown and replaced by a new one. Yerevan would probably be run by a very fragile caretaker government in combination of Moscow friendly political parties and Western friendly parties supported by the influential tech sector. Humanitarian calamities would be unaccounted for and rampant if the West allowed this scenario to play out.

 A plausible scenario.

Russia would support Baku to use military force to seize the remaining Armenian population centers of Nagorno-Karabakh and would order peacekeepers to stand down. Moscow would only demonstrate mercy to Armenia through the coercion to join the Union State of Russia and Belarus – an outright annexation.

This nightmare ultimatum for Armenian sovereignty could unfold if (1) Azerbaijani operational success severely cripples the moral of the Armenian Armed Forces, (2) Baku made rapid gains in Nagorno-Karabakh, (3) Armenian civilian casualties are high, and (4) Azerbaijan connects its exclaves in northwestern Republic of Armenia territory. Baku’s success would set the stage for an all-out assault from both Azerbaijani sides of the “Zanzigur” Corridor in southern Republic of Armenia.

The logic to trade sovereignty for security would follow if Moscow suddenly gained the leverage to offer Yerevan an off-ramp: join the Union State of Russia and Belarus or suffer another genocide and territorial forfeiture.

Russia would recoup its 60,000 ethnic citizens who reside in Armenia since the start of the 2022 Ukraine-Russia War (about 780,000 have passed through the country), including many who restarted tech businesses which now cooperate with the West. Moreover, Moscow would reclaim strategically important territory it once controlled during the Soviet Era which borders Iran, Turkey, and Azerbaijan and Georgia, another nation whose land is under partial control by Russian proxy.

Although Iran has made many rhetorical guarantees to the Armenian-Azerbaijani border demarcation as permanent, Moscow could save Tehran a hot war with Baku as the status quo of the new Iranian-Russian border would operate the same as the Iranian-Armenian border.

Russia could also garner a tariff through a newly constructed road between Azerbaijan’s west exclave and eastern mainland. The United States and Europe would also lose a deeply embed and vital Armenian partner in the tech sector including software, artificial intelligence research, semiconductor design and data science. Russia would annex former Soviet Union territory without firing a shot and President Putin could bolster his legacy as a revanchist hero.

Many unknowns surround how Turkey, the European Union writ large and the United States each individually play into these scenarios.

We have seen reports of Turkish-Armenian rapprochement, but it seems that drivers point to anything except full normalization. The question on Turkey’s support to Azerbaijan in the region should not be phrased as “if” but “how much”. Turkish election season is ramping up for incumbent and Neo-Ottoman ideologue President Erdogan. His previous unconcealed rhetoric towards assisting Azerbaijan has been well received domestically and throughout the Turkic world.  The Turkish-Armenian land border partially opened when Armenia sent humanitarian aid to Turkey. Yet, Turkey and Azerbaijan are close in military and ideology.

It should not be hard for a Westerner to conclude that Turkey prioritizes relations, trade, weapons sales, and influence with Azerbaijan over normalization with Armenia – especially if it came to a zero-sum issue such as another Azerbaijan-Armenia war. For those that disagree, they should research the nations who do and do not recognize the Armenian Genocide as a historical fact.

The European Union faces hurdles in securing peace because of its economic dependence on Azerbaijan as a non-Russian gas supplier. Any attempts by the EU or individual member states to economically sanction Baku would net increased gas prices. It is also highly unlikely that any member state would challenge the status quo to replace Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh with EU member states, given EU members’ overlapping commitments to Ukraine via NATO.

This leaves the US with a once-in-a-century opportunity to secure peace and balance of power in the South Caucasus.  Armenia’s strategic desire to incorporate with the Western world has not been seen since the Armenian Genocide survivors and France in the aftermath of WWI. Failure to garner peace would probably cost the West a rising Armenian democracy to Russian oligarchy and furthermore, a vital partner to the tech sector including software, artificial intelligence research, semiconductor design, and data science.

Current US Ambassador to Russia Lynne Tracy, previously the US Ambassador to Armenia, once stated the US is ready to work with Russia bilaterally on an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal. Though the comment did not make headlines in major Western news outlets, Ambassador Tracy’s long-shot idea may be the best confidence-building measure between the West and Russia as everyone benefits from peace and stability.

If the West remains idle on this issue, Russia may emerge the victor of the 2022-2023 Ukraine-Russia War with new territory in not only one but two former Soviet republics.

Aim-listed Chaarat Gold has discontinued discussions to buy Lydian Armenia, stating that it could not agree an acquisition structure within the required time.

The proposed acquisition would have constituted a reverse takeover, owing to the size of the transaction. Accordingly, trading in Chaarat’s shares were suspended in October last year and was reinstated on Monday.

Lydian Armenia, the owner of the controversial Amulsar gold mine, is a subsidiary of Lydian Canada Ventures, owned by US firm Orion Mine Finance and Canadian firm Osisko Gold Royalties.

Development of the Amulsar mine was suspended in 2018, following protests against the project’s potential environmental damage.