Author: Markos Nalchajian

Amid reports of disenchantment between Russia and Armenia, the latter has allegedly decided to transfer some Soviet-era military equipment to Ukraine.

Reports published in local media have claimed that the former Soviet state, which has traditionally enjoyed strong ties with Moscow, has decided to transfer Tochka-U missile systems and some other unknown air defense systems to the Ukrainian military.

These claims could not be independently corroborated by EurAsian Times, and Russia has yet to officially respond to these reports at the time of writing this report.

According to preliminary information, Armenia could transfer three Tochka-U to the Ukrainian military. The AFU is not unfamiliar with the use of the Tochka-U missile. The AFU allegedly employed the missile against Russia since the initial days of the war in 2022. 

A modernized version of the Soviet Tochka precision tactical missile system, the Tochka-U is intended to strike specific small targets hidden deep within the enemy defense. The most modern Tochka-U model has a range of up to 75 miles (120 kilometers) and can transport several warhead types up to a weight of about 1,000 pounds or more than 450 kilograms.

The reports come after a famous Russian military blogger claimed that Ukrainian forces used a Tochka-U missile to strike Belgorod Oblast on November 19. Without offering any substantial evidence to support his claims, the blogger also said that the Armenian government has begun to prepare to withdraw from the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

The CSTO is a Russia-led inter-governmental security alliance of six post-Soviet states. The other members of CSTO, formed in 2002, are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. The Armenian transfer of Tochka-U to Ukraine comes at a time when all is not well between Russia-led CSTO and Armenia.

On November 20, the CSTO chief announced that Armenia has asked for the removal of the alliance’s assistance to Armenia from its agenda. “The Armenian side, although all other allies supported this decision, did not express any interest in this document, and they asked to remove the final part of our work from the agenda altogether,” Imamgali Tasmagambetov. 

This announcement was a follow-up to the previous decision against attending events of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) because it received no aid that it had requested during an Azerbaijani military incursion on its sovereign territory in May 2021.

Moreover, reports suggest that Yerevan has allegedly decided to supply the Tochka-U to Kyiv after it signed deals with Western countries to acquire cutting-edge military equipment. For instance, French-made armored vehicles, which were previously earmarked for Ukraine, were instead shipped to Armenia earlier this month.

According to a French media outlet, “The first confirmed delivery (to Armenia) is of Bastion light armored vehicles manufactured by the equipment manufacturer Arquus. The Bastion can carry a battle group of eight soldiers, protecting against small arms fire and mines.” Authorities in Georgia have verified that France sent armored personnel carriers, known as ACMAT Bastion, to Armenia through the Port of Poti.

Moreover, the report stated that France could provide 50 VAB MK3 armored vehicles, which offer multi-mission capabilities and elite protection to the military forces. EurAsian Times could not independently verify this particular information. Still, there is bickering that more arms transfer could follow as the French are looking to fill the vacuum amid mounting tensions between traditional allies Moscow and Yerevan.

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia’s influence has only increased significantly in one post-Soviet nation: Armenia. Russian border guards were stationed at Armenia’s borders with Iran and Turkey in 1992. Three years later, in 1995, the second city of Armenia, Gyumri, welcomed a sizable Russian military installation.

In 2020, Russian peacekeepers were sent to Armenia to help maintain a truce after the country’s 44-day battle with the more powerful, Turkish-backed forces of Azerbaijan, which claimed thousands of lives on both sides.

However, since Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, things have changed. By the fall of 2022, it became evident that Moscow was unwilling to step in when Azerbaijan assaulted Armenian territory.

Things came to a head in September 2023 when Moscow demonstrated once more that it was unwilling to take a chance on a fight with Azerbaijan to help Armenia in the one-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh.

In fact, despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers, nearly all of the 120,000 ethnic Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh fled when Azerbaijan reclaimed the separatist province earlier this year.

Although Moscow has denied the accusations, several Armenians held Russia responsible for not intervening to halt what Baku described as an anti-terrorist operation. Analysts believe that Russian actions could be attributed to its decision to focus all efforts and resources on its fight against Ukraine, which has become emboldened with additional Western military support.

However, the Russian inability to come through for its closest ally has triggered a security rethink in Yerevan. In an unexpected development, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said in September that his country could no longer rely on Moscow as a guarantor of its security due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

File Image: Tochka-U

The Prime Minister stated that Russia’s capabilities have changed as a result of the events in Ukraine while conceding that Moscow was trying to keep Azerbaijan and its close ally Turkey neutral, as both have grown in strategic significance for the Kremlin since the beginning of the war in Ukraine last year.

“Our strategy should be to try in this situation to decrease our dependency on others maximally,” he added. “We want to have an independent country, a sovereign country, but we have to have ways to avoid ending up in the center of clashes between West and East, North and South … There cannot be a case when Armenia becomes a ‘proxy.’ This is not permissible.”

Vladimir Putin during his visit to the 102nd Russian military base in Armenia

Even if it could not directly participate in the conflict or militarily step in to support Armenia, one option available to Russia was to increase the transfer of arms to the South Caucasian country. However, it has become widely known that amid massive equipment losses, Russia needs all the weapons it can manage to deploy.

Yerevan went so far as to complain that Armenia was forced to turn to Indian suppliers since Moscow could not provide the weaponry it had already paid for. This has also been understood to be why Armenia is progressively engaging with the West and reportedly acquiring arms from them now.

In September, Armenia launched a joint military exercise with the United States, a move that angered its main ally, Russia. At the time, Armenian officials announced that the drills were intended to improve tactical skill sharing and interoperability amongst forces participating in international peacekeeping missions.

Following the declaration by Armenia to bulwark its defenses in October 2023, France has inked the deals for supplying Thales-manufactured Ground Master 200 (GM200) radars and signed a memorandum of understanding to deliver the Mistral short-range air defense system. According to France’s Ministry of the Armed Forces, a second contract was for Yerevan to acquire night vision goggles and equipment manufactured by Safran.

On its part, even the European Union has discussed providing non-lethal military aid to Armenia. The EU Foreign Affairs Council discussed expanding the EU monitoring mission by dispatching additional observers and patrols to the Armenian border during their meeting on November 13. The Council also forewarned Azerbaijan against jeopardizing its territorial integrity and stressed the importance of maintaining vigilance against destabilization in Armenia.

With the strained relationship with Russia and alienation from the Russia-led CSTO alliance, Armenia is increasingly cultivating ties with the West. If the transfer of weapons to Ukraine is authenticated, it could signal a massive change in its security calculations, this time pointing toward Russia itself.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/angry-armenia-to-arm-ukraine-with-tochka-u-ballistic-missile/

Amid the ongoing Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, India is considering sending more military assistance to Armenia, its vital ally in the Caucasus, reports the Economic Times. This comes after India successfully delivered the first batch of weapons to Armenia over the past year.

The article reported that India intends to send additional supplies some of which could consist of military hardware meant to strengthen Armenia’s deterrent might. The development came to light in the backdrop of serious tensions between Armenia and the Islamic country Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey and Pakistan.

A top Armenian official recently was in Delhi to hold negotiations about the same, as per sources with knowledge of the situation. They asserted that India has emerged as a reliable source of weapons which is in line with their demand.

However, specifics of the new shipments are undisclosed at this time and analysts in Armenia who want to remain anonymous stated that the cargo might comprise tools that could act as a deterrent amid the hostile environment with Azerbaijan.

India’s previous consignment to Armenia included Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers, anti-tank missiles, rockets, and ammunition. The weapons were reportedly delivered through Iran, a country with historical ties to Armenia. Iran, which has historical ties to Armenia had reportedly facilitated the delivery. The supplies had prompted protests from Azerbaijan.

India, Iran and Armenia established a trilateral earlier this year to explore a transit corridor. The three nations underlined the potential for strengthening cultural and people-to-people ties as well as trilateral collaboration in several areas during a meeting in Yerevan in April. They further spoke about economic initiatives and regional communication channels. The decision was made to “continue consultations” in the format at that point. The usage of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) as a regional connectivity network was addressed as well at the summit.

Armenia has been acquiring Pinaka systems mostly because of Azerbaijan’s drone utilisation, as the system’s “shoot and scoot” functionality allows it to avoid counter-battery fire. It is also an excellent armament system for the country due to its affordability and ease of application. Due to their familiarity with the Russian-made GRAD system, the Armenian army could quickly become proficient with the technique. 

The head of Armenia’s parliamentary committee on defence and security affairs, Andranik Kocharyan recently declared without mentioning India that the new arsenal supplied to the country is now being tested by their military, with “very satisfactory” results.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians until 2023.

The small nation of Armenia is nestled between Turkey and Azerbaijan. The Azeris share Turkish culture and religion since they are ethnic Turks. The Ottoman Empire colonized the predominantly Christian Armenians for a very long period. Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia were the three Soviet republics that split apart from Armenia after the Soviet Union annexed the country in the 1920s.

Armenia and Azerbaijan gained independence in the 1990s with the fall of the Soviet Union. However, a small area that was home to ethnic Armenians continued to be a part of Azerbaijan. The name of this area is Nagorno-Karabakh. In the 1990s, tensions rose, leading this region to announce independence with Armenia’s assistance. The impasse lasted for over thirty years until Azerbaijan unilaterally breached the truce in 2020, backed by Turkey.

The dispute saw a significant escalation after this. Six weeks of intense combat were reported to have claimed thousands of lives.

Azerbaijan took over large swaths of land, and by the time both sides agreed to sign a peace deal negotiated by Russia in November 2020, it had grabbed all of the regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh controlled by Armenia since 1994. The terms of the deal obliged Armenian troops to leave these territories and they have since been limited to a smaller part of the region.

The violence was momentarily stopped by the arrival of Russian soldiers, however, tensions had been building for months between the two nations.

In September this year, the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia once again escalated as the Turkey-backed Azerbaijani forces launched a military offensive in the region. The onslaught that lasted for 24 hours claimed the lives of as many as 10 innocent civilians and left several injured.

The following day, a cease-fire deal mediated by Russia was struck. The agreement stated that the military forces of Karabakh would be entirely disarmed and abolished.

On September 20, the prime minister stated that Armenia was not a party to the deal, accusing Baku, the capital city of Azerbaijan of attempting to draw Armenia into a confrontation. 

Amidst all this, over 1,20,000 ethnic Armenians living in the region started fleeing Muslim-majority Azerbaijan fearing persecution and ethnic cleansing by the Azeri authorities. 

https://www.opindia.com/2023/10/armenia-azerbaijan-conflict-india-considers-sending-second-batch-of-weapons-to-armenia/

Recommendation to “refrain from intervention for peace and stability in the Caucasus region”
Raisi meets separately with foreign ministers of both countries in Tehran to mediate

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said on the 23rd (local time) that for peace and stability in the Caucasus region, a disputed area between Armenia and Azerbaijan, foreign intervention could be “very harmful” and that regional issues should be resolved through dialogue and cooperation between the parties. He emphasized that

According to Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency, the President’s Office said that President Raisi made these remarks during separate meetings with the foreign ministers of the two countries who visited Tehran.

He told Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, “Iran has a great interest in the security of the countries in the Caucasus region and recognizes its importance,” and said that Iran would take action in resolving the problems between the two countries.

In response, the Armenian Foreign Minister thanked Iran for making strong statements and stepping forward for the development of the Caucasus region, saying that Iran’s help would be needed as there would be a need to hold talks and general meetings among regional countries “at this critically important time.” said.

During his meeting with Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, Iranian President Raisi said that Iran has always attached importance to dialogue between neighboring countries in the region to resolve regional problems, adding that there is a need to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries concerned. He emphasized that there is.

Accordingly, the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister actively agreed with Iran’s position to prevent foreign intervention in regional issues. He said he was grateful for Azerbaijan’s efforts to preserve its territory.

On the evening of the 23rd, the foreign ministers of the two countries held a meeting with their Iranian, Russian and Russian counterparts and discussed the recent conflict in the southern Caucasus.

At this event, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian announced that he would actively support future peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Iran’s official IRNA news agency reported.

The Iranian minister warned that there is a risk that this region could become a site of competition between world powers, and repeatedly warned that it would be best to resolve regional disputes among the countries in the region.

Armenia and Arbaijan in the Caucasus Mountains region once again engaged in armed conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region on September 27.

The two countries, which have been fighting over this mountainous area for nearly 40 years since 1988, each speak differently about the situation on this day. Armenia claimed that Azerbaijan attacked Stepanakert, the capital of the disputed region, at 8 a.m. with helicopters and drones and fired tank shells, killing several civilians.

Azerbaijan, on the other hand, countered by saying that the Armenian military shelled the entire border area, killing civilians.

Although the ceasefire talks that the two countries agreed to in 1994 are maintained, intermittent clashes and local wars have continued since then. After a border clash on September 27, 2020, a cease-fire meeting was held again on November 9 of that year through Russian mediation.

As the fighting expanded again on September 19th of this year, Russia stepped forward the next day and achieved cease-fire talks.

Source: Donga