Author: Markos Nalchajian

The stance of neighbors in the region and a careful process are essential to achieve progress in the normalization of ties between Turkey and Armenia, experts said.

After a 1 1/2 hour meeting last week, the Turkish and Armenian foreign ministries published the same statement hailing the talks and agreeing to “continue negotiations without preconditions.”

As the communique noted the meeting was conducted in a positive and constructive manner, experts told Anadolu Agency (AA) that talks remain “fragile.”

Former Ambassador to the United States Serdar Kılıç was named Turkish special envoy on Dec. 15, 2021, to discuss steps toward normalization with neighboring Armenia. Three days later, Armenia appointed its special representative, National Assembly Deputy Speaker Ruben Rubinyan.

Before the meeting, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said that at the gathering, the envoys would exchange views on a road map for moving forward, including confidence-building measures.

In that context, the two officials conducted the first meeting in “a positive and constructive atmosphere” as they had “exchanged their preliminary views regarding the normalization process through dialogue between Turkey and Armenia.”

A prominent geopolitics expert on the South Caucasus, Nigar Göksel, described the issuance of the same statement by both countries after the meeting as a “positive first step” even though it “doesn’t reveal much.”

Göksel, who is also the Turkish director of the International Crisis Group, added: “Now that there is a direct channel, the risk that public messaging can be misinterpreted is diminished.”

She said both parties “share an interest in normalization” and noted that mending ties would “pave the way for regional integration, with transport links expected to bring economic dividends and more stability.”

Turkey has been putting high emphasis on creating enhanced cooperation and integration in the region following the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Clashes erupted in September 2020 between the former Soviet republics when the Armenian Army launched attacks on Azerbaijani civilians and forces and violated several humanitarian cease-fire agreements. Turkey staunchly supported Azerbaijan in its fight.

During the 44-day conflict, which ended in a truce on Nov. 10, 2020, Azerbaijan liberated several cities and nearly 300 settlements and villages in Nagorno-Karabakh from almost three decades of occupation.

The two countries also closely cooperate within the scope of the Organization of Turkic States and establish the 3+3 Caucasus Platform, which envisages further integration and cooperation in the region.

Ankara has made frequent calls for a six-nation platform comprising of Turkey, Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia for permanent peace, stability and cooperation in the region, saying it would be a win-win initiative for all regional actors in the Caucasus.

Turkey believes that permanent peace is possible through mutual security-based cooperation among the states and people of the South Caucasus region.

“The normalization process will likely proceed step by step, ideally building trust along the way between Turkey and Armenia, and also ensuring all other neighbors are positively disposed of,” she said.

Although the opening of borders may still require some time, the International Crisis Group expert said, “There is an expectation that now bilateral talks will continue in Ankara and Yerevan, rather than in a third country.”

Regarding Azerbaijan’s position on Turkey’s talks with Armenia, Göksel said: “Baku’s public statements are supportive, and this matters for Turkish public opinion.”

Last month, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov said that Baku “fully supports” the normalization of relations between neighboring Turkey and Armenia.

Speaking at a year-end evaluation of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy, Bayramov said Azerbaijan and Turkey favor relations with all countries based on international law.

“The basis for normalization of interstate relations can only be international law,” he said. “Both Azerbaijan and Turkey have always shown this attitude. We’re in favor of improving our relations with all countries and neighbors on the basis of international law, and we are doing this. The exception so far on this list has been Armenia. We offer the same proposal to Armenia,” he explained.

Noting that opening of a new transit route to Nakhchivan via Armenian territory is particularly important for Baku and Ankara, Göksel said normalization talks “remain fragile” as a potential “escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan could negatively affect Turkey-Armenia negotiations.”

“Ankara’s expressed hope is that momentum in Turkey-Armenia talks can feed into a broader positive dynamic in the region,” she added.

Yıldız Deveci Bozkuş, a leading Turkish academician on Armenian studies from Ankara University, also told AA that the normalization process between Ankara and Yerevan is “highly fragile.”

Bozkuş said the fact that Turkish and Armenian ministries shared identical statements is “very important,” as it shows that both parties “are on the same page.”

Though the date and location of the next meeting were not announced, a prominent academician said the statement also “gives clues on the continuation of a positive process.”

Both parties sharing the same statement is also important to prevent manipulation, she said. But “the process is very fragile, steps need to be taken very carefully.”

“Public opinion emerged regarding this meeting both in the West and the East. In fact, especially when we look at the U.S., there are reports of (U.S. President Joe) Biden receiving letters criticizing Turkey on the talks and that the Armenian diaspora is exerting pressure. In this respect, we can say that the process is fragile,” she said.

Stressing the importance of continuing negotiations without preconditions, Bozkuş said such a move shows that “the events of 1915 will be discussed in the next period, but not in the near future. As part of normalization steps, the opening of borders, energy, and transportation will be addressed in the first place. Meanwhile, the events of 1915 are either placed aside or postponed to a later date.”

She noted that talks continuing without preconditions also had a backlash for Armenia as Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian was criticized by radicals in that country as well as former politicians.

But having conditions before negotiations would not yield results, she added.

Noting that there were third parties such as international organizations or countries during previous negotiations, Bozkuş said current talks are being carried out directly between Turkey and Armenia.

“This process, unlike the previous ones, needs to be continued with more rigor and sensitivity so that both sides do not miss this opportunity for normalization,” she said.

Bozkuş also drew attention to the necessity of normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, saying that success in talks between Ankara and Yerevan depends on it.

“Reopening of borders would benefit everyone, not only Turkey or Armenia but will also have a positive effect on the region’s trade route,” she added.

Turkey and Armenia have had no diplomatic or commercial ties for three decades and the talks are the first attempt to restore links since a 2009 peace accord. That deal was never ratified and ties have remained tense.

The neighbors are at odds over various issues, primarily the 1915 incidents and Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

With borders closed, Turkey and Armenia have no direct trade routes. Indirect trade has risen marginally since 2013 but was just $3.8 million (TL 51.2 million) in 2021, according to official Turkish data.

Turkish budget carrier Pegasus Airlines will start charter flights between Istanbul and Yerevan in early February, amid political efforts to normalize ties between Turkey and Armenia.

Following years of frozen ties, Turkey will resume charter flights to Armenia, Çavuşoğlu said in December as he announced the two neighboring countries were seeking to normalize ties.

Relations between Armenia and Turkey have historically been complicated. Turkey’s position on the events of 1915 is that Armenians lost their lives in eastern Anatolia after some sided with the invading Russians and revolted against the Ottoman forces. The subsequent relocation of Armenians resulted in numerous casualties, with massacres by militaries and militia groups from both sides increasing the death toll.

Turkey objects to the presentation of the incidents as “genocide” but describes the 1915 events as a tragedy in which both sides suffered casualties.

Ankara has repeatedly proposed the creation of a joint commission comprised of historians from Turkey and Armenia and international experts to tackle the issue.