Two Lebanese-Armenian families move to Artsakh

Public Radio of Armenia
Aug 25 2020

Proportionality Bias and July’s Armenian-Azerbaijani Flareup

Aug 23 2020

By David Davidian
On July 12, a lowly Azerbaijani UAZ military jeep headed towards a border military post operated by Armenian soldiers. It appears the Azerbaijani soldiers were not aware Armenians were manning this post. Armenian soldiers waved off the jeep. The Azerbaijani soldiers exited the vehicle, ran off and returned with reinforcements. Fighting escalated for two weeks, with villages shelled and UAVs filling the skies.
The result was a tremendous loss for Azerbaijan. A Major General, a Colonel, two Majors, scores of soldiers, a $30M Israeli-built Hermes 900 UAV shot down, and a Foreign Minister fired accused of pandering to Armenians. What such high-ranking officers were doing at a battlefront is unknown, contrary to generally accepted military doctrine. Armenians recaptured some highland real estate. Twice, an elite team of Azerbaijanis tried to retake the highlands, and both times unsuccessfully.
Tens of thousands of Azerbaijani civilians poured into the streets of Baku, the Azerbaijani capital, yelling “Allahu Akbar,” “Death to Armenians,” and “Take us to war.” Many protesters were beaten and arrested. Azerbaijani President Aliyev seized this opportunity to detain many of his opposition, particularly members of the Azerbaijani Popular Front. Human Rights Watch and EU Parliamentarians protested these detentions and subsequent torture. Azerbaijani authorities preempted an attempt by the Talysh, an Azerbaijan ethnic minority, to hold a large-scale autonomy-oriented demonstration. Aliyev charged exiled Azerbaijani artists and writers of being Armenian agents.
Since Azerbaijani soldiers violated its borders, Armenia notified the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Moscow-sponsored military alliance. It soon became clear Armenia was able to address this border violation on its own. Invoking the CSTO would have escalated the issue significantly. Azerbaijan’s strategic partner, Turkey, reiterated its support for Azerbaijan during an address by Turkish President Erdogan on July 14. Erdogan threatened Armenia with a second genocide, this time in the Caucasus. Weeks after this July 12 border indecent, Turkey organized extensive war games in Azerbaijan.
Proportionality bias is the tenancy to assume that big events need to have big causes. Such cognitive bias plays a central role in the creation and acceptance of conspiracy theories. The long list of conspiracies for the existence of the COVID-19 virus is an example of proportionality bias. It is entirely possible, and reasonable proof exists that the virus went from animals to humans. Conspiracies range from George Soros and Bill Gates as culprits to 5G cell towers. Just as simple explanations for the existence of COVID-19 are ignored, the simple event on July 12 is ignored and overshadowed by “big causes.” Conspiracies associated with the July Armenian-Azerbaijan flareup include:
-The fighting is a prelude to a Turkish-Russian proxy war (given Turkish-Russian friction in Syria, Libya, the Gulf, etc.)
– Armenians threaten Azerbaijan’s hydrocarbon pipeline infrastructure (within 10-20 km or so from this July 12 incident), disrupting the world energy flow.
-Armenians are aggressors (given stalled Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations).
-Azerbaijanis are aggressors (Azerbaijan is approaching budget deficit status as the price of a barrel of Azerbaijani crude is less than its production cost) and claim the negotiation process over Nagorno-Karabakh is worthless.
-The July events occurred at an Armenia-Azerbaijan border, not between Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh.
While all of these items are worth discussing, none take into account the simplest explanation for events; the result of a lowly Azerbaijani military vehicle approaching an Armenian military post. Of course, this combined with high-value Azerbaijani personnel losses allows one to conclude the top hypothesis for the July events was Azerbaijani military incompetence. The acceptance of such a simple hypothesis forces analysts to take a non-Azerbaijani position. Nevertheless, war is chaotic, and the evidence speaks for itself.
During an August 20 interview Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, stated, (in translation):
The decision of the Armenian side to revive the old border checkpoint located 15 km from the Azerbaijani export pipelines caused heightened concern among some, an unjustified response from others and, as a result, launched a flywheel of confrontation with the most unpredictable consequences.
While Lavrov’s comments include diplomatic finesse, it corresponds well with our top hypothesis – the Azerbaijanis did not know that Armenians operated an abandoned military border post. Further, local anecdotal stories claim that Azerbaijani soldiers forgot to come back to this “abandoned” military post, and Armenians took it over.
The reaction of Azerbaijani President Aliyev was out of proportion to the magnitude of the preceding events. On July 13, Azerbaijani authorities accused former Defense Minister Rahim Gaziyev, of deliberately spreading “untrue information about the nature of the events on social network platforms,” acting “to weaken the defense capabilities of the Republic of Azerbaijan,” and inciting “riots and violent seizure of state power.” Azerbaijan’s leadership was wholly unprepared for events that began on July 12. Out of frustration, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense threatened to blow up Armenia’s nuclear power plant.
While it may not be alluring for political analysts to consider that circumstances during heightened tension can escalate due to simple chaotic events, creating unwarranted conspiracies adds nothing to dissipate the fog of war.
Author: David Davidian  (Lecturer at the American University of Armenia. He has spent over a decade in technical intelligence analysis at major high technology firms.Yerevan, Armenia). 
(The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights). 


https://wgi.world/proportionality-bias-and-july-s-armenian-azerbaijani-flareup/






Armenian millionaire offers compensation to Azerbaijani businessmen for losses due to street skirmishes

JAM News
28.07.2020
    JAMnews, Yerevan

Sergei Sarkisov, a Russian millionaire of Armenian origin, has offered to compensate all Azerbaijani citizens for damages incurred due to clashes between Armenians and Azerbaijanis in Moscow.

A rather tense situation developed in the Russian capital last week. Videos began to circulate on social media of the two diaspora communities attacking each other. The unrest in Moscow arose against the backdrop of the military escalation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. 

Between July 12-16, at least 17 people were killed in total on both sides.

In Armenia, the businessman’s appeal to make peace was perceived not as a gesture of goodwill, but as a pragmatic step. Experts believe Sarkisov is trying to restore relations with his Azerbaijani partners and continue running his business.


What Sarkisov said

The billionaire called on representatives of the two communities in Moscow to renounce violence and stop those who provoke unrest from abroad.

In his statement, Sarkisov emphasised that he felt “very ashamed” before his Azeri friends for the ‘vandals who decided to show their national identity through violence and destruction’:

“It is not in the tradition of our peoples to make conflict in the house where you were received as guests, given the opportunity to live and work, and for your children to study. I am talking about Russia. Do not dishonor your people, your ancestors.”

The businessman announced that his family will compensate for the damage caused to Azerbaijani businessmen:

“I am sure that Azerbaijani businessmen agree with us and will do the same.”

Reactions in Armenia

Political scientist Hrant Mikaelyan commented on Sarkisov’s statement. The expert says that Sarkisov is most likely trying to smooth out the conflict in order to maintain relations with his Azerbaijani partners.

“I think that the damage caused to Azerbaijani business as a result of the Armenian-Azerbaijani clashes is very small. The benefit that Sergei Sarkisov can get from such compensation is higher from a purely pragmatic point of view,” Mikaelyan said.

The political scientist believes that there are hardly any people on the Azerbaijani side who are ready to take such a step, since Baku maintains a rather radical position on this issue:

“It is not a fact that the Azerbaijani side will respond in kind, although we will wait and see.”

Social media commentary

The news about Sarkisov’s proposal is being actively discussed not only by the Armenian, but also the Russian Facebook community.

Here are a few of the comments:

“By making this move publicly, the Sarkisov brothers smoothed over their positions and the situation in general. At one time, Gorbachev and the old men from the Politburo did the same, smoothing over the massacre in Sumgait, as well as a certain number of hooligans in Armenia. We already know what this led to. Now we see them singing the same tune. The Politburo has changed, but the methods have remained the same.”

“Another betrayal and desire to curry favor with the master!”

“They did this to survive in Russia, otherwise, they may lose business. Are they any better than Khodorkovsky?”

“I think Azerbaijanis will refuse this assistance, delicately and in a cultured manner.”

Who are the Sarkisovs?

Brothers Sergei and Nikolai Sarkisovs are from Nagorno-Karabakh.

Sergey Sarkisov is the founder of one of the largest Russian insurance companies, RESO-Garantia. He sits on the company’s board of directors and is a member of the board and presidium of the Russian Union of Insurers.

His fortune is estimated at $700 million.

Nikolai Sarkisov is the company’s vice CEO.

No casualties among Armenian civilian population from Azerbaijani shelling – Tavush Governor

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 14:26,

YEREVAN, JULY 16, ARMENPRESS. All groups of civil protection of Armenia’s Tavush province have been mobilized in the early morning of July 16 and are taking intensive works at all directions to ensure the security of the residents, Governor of Tavush province Hayk Chobanyan said at a briefing at the Crisis Information Center in Ijevan town.

“We have announced an internal mobilization, in particular in terms of shelter. Our citizens have mainly been shelters and basements. Fortunately, we do not have casualties among the civilian population”, the Governor said.

Today early in the morning the Azerbaijani side resumed shelling at the bordering villages of Armenia’s Tavush province. Aygepar, Nerkin Karmiraghbyur, Chinari, Movses, Tavush villages and Berd town were under the target.

Editing and Translating by Aneta Harutyunyan

58,000 tons of fruits-vegetables exported from Armenia this year

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 14:57, 8 July, 2020

YEREVAN, JULY 8, ARMENPRESS. Armenia now is in an active agricultural period, the export is being carried out smoothly, without big problems, Deputy minister of economy Arman Khojoyan said at a press conference in Armenpress.

“Trucks pass the border checkpoints without any problems and deliver the agricultural goods to the foreign markets on time. According to our operative data, 13,000 tons of apricots, nearly 3,200 tons of cherries, 21,000 tons of tomatoes, 800 tons of strawberries and other goods have already been exported. A total of 58,000 tons of fruits-vegetables have been exported”, the deputy minister said, adding that this figure is less by 15% from the figure of the same period of 2019.

The less export is connected with apple harvesting. This year 5,500 tons of apples were exported, whereas in the same period of 2019 this number was 11,500 tons.

There is also a decline in export of apricots, the reason is the bad weather conditions.

Editing and Translating by Aneta Harutyunyan

AMULSAR a Would-be Disaster

  • OPINIONS

To review and understand what is involved in Amulsar, one must watch the documentary “Amulsar. State of Indifference”.

Lydian International Ltd. discovered gold in Amulsar, Armenia, back in 2006. With its Armenian counterpart, it began luring villagers of Gndevaz and surrounding villages, with promising jobs and enterprises, at times exploiting their naivety and desperateness. Bought their lands at low prices, via their corrupt mayor, against whom, a court case is currently in progress.

Lydian acquired its mining license from the previous corrupt government. Following land acquisition, it proceeded to destroy all the villagers’ lifework of apricot orchards, to build its own mine facilities. Some villagers even had to sell their cattle because these lands had become useless for grazing.

The company presented a simplified foolproof picture of “clean mining” to the authorities, in a short-animated film, and started construction work, without the consent of the local communities: Gndevaz, Saravan, Saralanj, Kechout and Gorayq communities… and most importantly without even consulting Jermuk community, the most crucially impacted town. This created a terrible alarm among the residents of Jermuk, who were quick to collect over three thousand signatures to confirm their rejection of any mine in their neighborhood.

And despite all the contrary scientific evidence:

  1. The site’s critical location at the heart of Armenia.
  2. Proximity to critical drainage systems, connected to important reservoirs and rivers, which directly connect to Lake Sevan. As well-known, Arpa river is connected to Lake Sevan by a tunnel, and which was being renovated and scheduled to re-open in late March of this year.
  3. Proximity to the famous spa town of Jermuk, well-known for its geysers / hot water springs, connected to the hot subterranean volcanic structures. It is worth noting that there is a special building code for this area, to avoid explosions.
  4. Existence of uranium, proven in the fifties and harmful to human health if exposed.
  5. Very strong winds, characteristic of the area, that can transport the dust produced to vast distances.
  6. Snow during winter stays a long time in this area, which is a slow and sure way of infiltration and recharging ground water. Meaning any contaminant can easily infiltrate into the ground water through melting snow.
  7. Cyanide, a dangerous chemical was planned to be transported uphill along a “rugged mountainous region” leading to the site.

Thus, when the construction phase began, many tragic incidents were reported:

  1. Loud and noisy explosions were heard and visible from spa town of Jermuk,
  2. Blackish turbid water started running from tap water inside houses,
  3. Snow color turned into pinkish,
  4. Heavy dust settled on people’s cars just after one rainfall,
  5. Arpa – Vorotan rivers were rapidly polluted,
  6. Small baby fish were killed in fisheries.

After such incidents, the residents of Gendevaz and Jermuk confirmed that this project was a disaster in progress, even at its launching phase. Though some people were initially not complaining, turned absolutely against it after these incidents occurred.

Concerned voices which were raised long ago by the environmentalists, during the previous government, unfortunately continued with the new administration. They had great hopes that after the revolution, all corrupt schemes, including Amulsar project would be halted. But surprisingly, the new government took a different stand! No drop of water will be affected, the Prime Minister said. In disbelief, the residents thereupon resorted to blocking all the roads leading to the mine site.

Meanwhile, many independent studies were conducted through private means, numerous pleas, expert opinions, including my open letter to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, all pointing to the defects and faults in Lydian’s claims. Nevertheless, the new government preferred to conduct its own investigation, commissioning Lebanese ELARD, for an assessment, which also lead to similar conclusions. But the investigative committee appointed by the government for this reason, was dubiously coordinating with Lydian, and cleverly added a last page to the report prepared by ELARD, to misinform the Prime Minister that the report was in fact positive. Soon after, corruption charges were also laid on the head of this investigative committee.

It was apparent that the mining company and its shareholders were a stronger clan than the state. Lydian continued its arrogant and aggressive tactics. It even sued the environmentalists for defamation, spreading false narratives about them, misleading the new government, that the environmentalists were standing in the way of development. Always maintaining that the blockage was illegal, peeping into the protesters’ private information, publishing propaganda articles in various Armenian and non-Armenian journals, and even threatening the republic of Armenia with international arbitration court.

As events came to demonstrate, the new government was under tremendous pressure by ambassadors of the UK and USA , who were either being influenced by Lydian story, or had a direct interest in Amulsar! An impression was created that if you are against mining in Amulsar, you are against big foreign investments in the country. Thus, no human rights were recognized from human rights defenders themselves.

Sadly, encouraging mining, increasing its production, and giving out new licenses, also became a priority of this government. A recent plea to suspend issuing of new mining licenses for the next two years, was refused by a committee of parliament.

Standing firm and blocking the roads, defending the land, the habitat, against aggression and against the destruction of Mount Amulsar, remains the only option for now, until this government takes a firm decision, to stop mining in Amulsar and elsewhere in the country. You cannot open a mine, start destroying nature, harming your own citizens, letting them migrate, and then decide that it is harmful and put it back again. It is just not possible.

As a result of more than a year’s blockage, Lydian began losing its share value in Toronto Stock Exchange and was eventually delisted from the market. See also Ontario Superior Court informed about misleading information in mining company Lydian’s affidavit.

And the struggle continues …

On April 8, 2020 Armenian environmentalists, Armecofront, issued an open letter to large investors of the diaspora:

Stay Away from Amulsar: Open Letter to Big Capital Owners and Businessmen in the Armenian Diaspora”

In this letter, diaspora’s investors were alerted about a dangerous process of buying Lydian shares by big Armenian investors. This, after the company was delisted from Toronto Stock Exchange. In the mentioned open letter, certain personalities were revealed, some of whom, in the name of benevolence, were in fact doing great harm.

In the early morning hours of June 30th, 2020, a private security company claiming to have replaced the previous one, rushed to Amulsar posts with their cars and guns. While doing so they also overran and killed 3 puppies, creating heartache, chaos and large gatherings during a pandemic. The story was that they were sent to protect Lydian properties. But they had not previously notified the Amulsar guardians, making it look more like an invasion. Later, government security forces came to control the situation. There was finally an agreement between the two parties that legal documents would be handed over to the lawyers, the security men/cars representing Lydian, would be identified and reduced to a minimum, without carrying arms and showing off. You may also read:

  • Armed security forces have gathered in Amulsar
  • Tense Situation near Amulsar Guard Post
  • For us, the issue of Amulsar is an Artsakh issue, the solution of which has been given by the people, there is no going back. Shirak Buniatyan
  • They reached an agreement in Amulsar. those shows should not be in the area, they will not perform service with weapons, masks, or troops. Shirak Buniatyan

I was searching for Amulsar in both Google Maps and Google Earth, and this is what I found: the word “Gora Kysyr” instead of “Amulsar”. And a bunch of other Turkish names all over Armenia … I wrote a feedback to Google Earth, but one person is not enough.

It was only natural to expect Azerbaijan’s encouragement to exploit Amulsar. Azerbaijan welcomes the exploitation of Amulsar

But they went a step further and revealed their true intentions to annihilate the rest of Armenia. Let this be a notification, a registered proof, to the appropriate world organizations and negotiators that Armenia now is under cyber-attack. Just go to Google Earth and Google Maps and check for yourselves … and what will Google do about it?

Houry Ellezian is a geologist/sedimentologist with work experience in seismology. She is an environmental activist. The collage appearing on top of the article is the author’s work.


Artsakh authorities confirm their determination for restoration of the country’s territorial integrity – foreign ministry

Panorama, Armenia
July 4 2020

On July 4, 1992, the Azerbaijani armed units, with multiple superiority in manpower and military equipment, employing heavy artillery and combat aircraft launched a large-scale offensive in the direction of Martakert town of the Republic of Artsakh,” Artsakh foreign ministry said in a released statement on Saturday.

The statement reminds that Martakert was completely destroyed, and the Armenian population of the town of about 13 thousand people was forced to leave their homes and become internally displaced persons, finding temporary shelter in the capital city Stepanakert and in various settlements of the Republic of Armenia.

“Following the capture of Martakert, the Azerbaijani army continued the offensive, destroying about 80 percent of the region, looting the Armenian settlements and subjecting their population to forcible deportation.

In general, almost half of the territory of the Republic of Artsakh fell under the occupation of Azerbaijan. The republic itself was on the verge of total annihilation. The humanitarian situation was even more catastrophic – by the end of the summer of 1992, more than half of the population of the Republic were refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs). The situation was aggravated by the almost complete indifference of specialized international organizations to the fate of Armenian refugees and IDPs who were on the verge of a humanitarian disaster in Artsakh.
However, even in these seemingly hopeless conditions, the people of Artsakh managed to summon its collective will, mobilize its full potential and repel the armed aggression of Azerbaijan.

A year later, on June 27, 1993, the Defense Army of the Republic of Artsakh liberated the town of Martakert. Those who returned to their homeland began the process of restoration and improvement of the war-torn border town, which gained even greater scope after signing the termless trilateral (Azerbaijan, the Republic of Artsakh, and the Republic of Armenia) ceasefire agreement on May 12, 1994,” read the statement.

The source reminds that to this day, some settlements of the Martakert region, part of the Martuni region and the entire Shahumian region, a total of over 1000 square kilometers of the territory of the Republic of Artsakh, are under the Azerbaijani occupation, where the Azerbaijani authorities implement illegal settling and pursue a policy of destroying the traces of presence of the native Armenian population in these territories.

“The authorities of the Republic of Artsakh confirm their determination to seek the de-occupation of the territories of Artsakh and the restoration of the territorial integrity of the Republic,” the statement said.

Turkish diplomat elected 75th UN General Assembly president

Panorama, Armenia
Politics 12:19 18/06/2020World

Turkish diplomat Volkan Bozkir was elected President of the forthcoming session of the UN General Assembly in a vote held on Wednesday, the UN website reported.

Bozkir will preside over the 75th UN General Assembly, which opens in September. World leaders will not be coming to New York for the annual gathering for the first time in the 75-year history of the United Nations because of the COVID-19 pandemic, with the session to be held online.

The UN General Assembly presidency rotates annually between the five geographic groups. In 2020-2021, the president was to be elected from the Western European and Others Group, which also includes Turkey. Bozkir was the sole candidate for the post.

His candidacy was initially sent to member states for unanimous approval by silence procedure, but several countries, including Armenia, Greece, Cyprus and the UAE, objected it, requesting a secret vote. 

Plainclothes policemen to monitor compliance with state of emergency in Armenia

Vestnik Kavkaza
13 Jun in 21:18

Police officers dressed in civilian clothes will monitor compliance with epidemiological standards in Armenia, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan warned during an online briefing.

“I want to note that violations of epidemiological standards in our country continue. According to our analysis, a large number of infections are detected in courtyards, during funerals and weddings. From now on, policemen in civilian clothes will serve to prevent such phenomena,” TASS quotes him as saying.

Earthquake recorded in Artsakh

Panorama, Armenia

An earthquake of 2.6 magnitude was registered 12 km north-west of Qnaravan village of Artsakh on Saturday at about 16:08 (GMT 12:58), Armenia’s National Service for Seismic Protection at the Ministry of Emergency Situations (MES) reported, adding the geographical coordinates of the epicenter were northern latitude 40․250 and eastern longitude 46․000. The epicenter of the earthquake was on the depth of 12 kilometers.

In the epicenter the magnitude of the earthquake was registered 3-4 points. The earthquake has been felt in Karvachar town with 2-3 magnitude.