EUROPEAN UNION: DEMOCRATIZATION KEY TO CONFLICT RESOLUTION IN SOUTH CAUCASUS
Jean-Christophe Peuch
EurasiaNet
June 17 2008
NY
The European Union views the establishment of democracy and rule of
law in Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan as being critical elements in
the resolution of post-Soviet conflicts of Abkhazia, South Ossetia,
and Nagorno-Karabakh.
"Without stability, without a consensus around the rules of the game in
terms of democratic institutions, elections, and so on, there will not
be a basis for a mutually beneficial relationship based on mutual trust
and common values with the [EU]," the bloc’s special representative
for the South Caucasus, Peter Semneby, said in a June 12 interview,
shortly after addressing the Permanent Council of the Organization
for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) behind closed doors.
Pointing to what he called the "very rough" election period
Georgia and Armenia have gone through recently, and to Azerbaijan’s
upcoming presidential polls, Semneby added that, in his view, lack
of progress in the field of democratization will make it even more
difficult both for those countries and the international community
to deal with regional conflicts. "I am deeply convinced that only by
having legitimate, strong governments will it be possible to make the
difficult decisions that will have to be made in overcoming [those]
conflict situations," he said.
Semneby said he devoted a large part of his address to the OSCE to
recent developments in all three conflict zones, especially to the
situation in Georgia’s separatist republic of Abkhazia, which he
described as "very volatile and worrying." "There is a need to lower
the temperature in that conflict, both on the Georgian-Abkhaz level
and the Georgian-Russian level," he said. [For background see the
Eurasia Insight archive].
Tensions between Moscow and Tbilisi have been increasing since
early March. In the course of the past three months, Russia has
withdrawn from the 1996 CIS sanctions regime on Abkhazia, sent
additional peacekeepers to the region — allegedly without notifying
Georgia — and dispatched railway troops to reconstruct the depleted
Sukhumi-Ochamchira railroad. In addition, then-Russian President
Vladimir Putin on April 16 instructed his government to build closer
ties with Abkhazia and Georgia’s other separatist republic of South
Ossetia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
In late May, the United Nations Observation Mission in Georgia
(UNOMIG) released an investigative report that pointed to Russia’s
involvement in the shooting down of a Georgian military drone
over Abkhazia on April 20. Although UNOMIG also blamed Georgia for
carrying observation flights over Abkhazia, Moscow has described the
report as "biased." [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
sight/articles/eav042308f.shtml
Russia’s moves and the quasi-unanimous international criticism that
ensued have galvanized Georgia into renewing calls for a revision of
the existing conflict resolution format. In particular, Tbilisi is
pressing for the replacement of Russian peacekeepers that have been
stationed in Abkhazia since 1994 under a joint UN-CIS mandate with
Georgian and Abkhaz police troops under international supervision.
Georgia’s efforts to have the peace mechanisms modified have so far
received limited, though symbolically significant, international
support. On June 5, the European Parliament approved a resolution
that urged Moscow to immediately withdraw all its additional forces
from Abkhazia. Arguing that the Russian troops had "lost their role
of neutral and impartial peacekeepers," the European MPs also called
for a revision of the existing peacekeeping format and suggested that
the EU’s Council "consider bolstering the international presence in
the conflict zone by sending a [European Security and Defense Policy]
border mission to the region."
Semneby told EurasiaNet that he believed neither the timing nor
conditions were ripe for an attempt at revising the peacekeeping
format. "I know there are some expectations that the EU should
contribute to a mission. The Georgians are asking us to do this. This
is still a hypothetical discussion. We need a basic understanding from
all the parties on this issue. We do not think that any precipitated
action should be taken," he said.
The EU envoy sounded equally noncommittal when asked whether Brussels
would consider acting as the guarantor of a nonaggression pact between
Tbilisi and Sukhumi, a suggestion Georgia’s Deputy Prime Minister
Giorgi Baramidze made on June 6. "In general the EU is ready to be
more involved and we’re ready to discuss any proposal. But a question
like this is very hypothetical," he said.
UN-sponsored peace negotiations between Sukhumi and Tbilisi have
been suspended since 2006, when Tbilisi dispatched police troops to
the Upper Kodori Gorge, the only part of Abkhazia that remains under
Tbilisi’s control. Georgian officials insist that security forces
in the Kodori Gorge are being used only in a local law-enforcement
capacity. As a prerequisite to reviving talks, Abkhazia demanded
that Georgia recall its troops and commit itself to not resuming
hostilities.
Abkhazia’s leader Sergei Bagapsh reiterated those demands after
meeting with Javier Solana, the EU’s High Representative for Common
Foreign and Security Policy, on June 6. He also said that Sukhumi
opposes the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers.
Solana traveled to Abkhazia as part of a two-day mission to Georgia —
the aim of which, according to Semneby, was "to see what could be done
to stabilize that very volatile and worrying situation and identify
whether there is a way that the EU can be more involved in terms of
supporting a stabilization and eventually a settlement."
The EU has allocated more than $45 million to Abkhazia’s rehabilitation
and has a liaison police officer stationed with UNOMIG. Yet, its
political involvement in Georgia’s protracted conflicts remains fairly
limited, if only because EU member states disagree on that issue. Some
countries argue that those conflicts are already dealt with by the UN
and the OSCE, while others insist that the bloc should seek greater
political involvement to counterbalance Russia.
After an alleged Russian missile landed in the Georgian-held part of
South Ossetia in August 2007, EU member states decided to develop an ad
hoc instrument — called an Incident Assessment Mechanism (IAM). This
body is designed to provide independent assessments of such incidents
outside the bloc’s borders. Although the IAM is now operational,
Semneby said it was not activated after the shoot-down of the Georgian
drone in order not to interfere with the UNOMIG investigation.
While the question of a greater EU involvement in the Abkhaz conflict
remains hypothetical, Semneby says Brussels is willing, if asked to
do so, to facilitate contacts between the parties. "Any contact can
take place without a mediation and a process that can take place
without a mediation is better than [a process that takes place]
with a mediation," Semneby said in reference to the visit Georgia’s
Ambassador to the UN, Irakli Alasania, made in May to Sukhumi.