Author: Mamian George

Office of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger
Lisa Kalustian Chief Deputy Director
300 South Spring Street, Suite 16701
Los Angeles, CA 90013
(213)897-0322
FAX (213)897-0319

[email protected]

The Governor appointed John Shegerian of Fresno to the Anti-Gang Advisory
Panel. See the announcement below for more information.

Gov. Schwarzenegger Appoints Former U.S. Attorney Paul Seave as Anti-Gang
Director

Governor also appoints Anti-Gang Advisory Panel and releases $2.8 Million to
Fight Gang Violence

As a part of his California Gang Reduction, Intervention and Prevention
Program (CalGRIP < 5/> ),
Governor Schwarzenegger today appointed former U.S. Attorney Paul Seave as
state director of gang and youth violence policy along with ten advisory
team members to help build comprehensive, long-term strategies to fight gang
violence. The Governor also released $2.8 million in discretionary Workforce
Investment Act funds for local government to expand job training for at-risk
and gang-involved youth and gang members.

"Today my administration is enacting critical measures to implement our
CalGRIP strategy that targets more than $31 million in state and federal
funding toward local anti-gang efforts, including intervention, suppression
and prevention. CalGRIP will provide important job training and education
programs, while at the same time giving tools to local law enforcement that
will allow them to closely track gang leaders and make our streets safer,"
said Governor Schwarzenegger.

"I am pleased to have such an experienced professional as former U.S.
Attorney Paul Seave in this post as we implement this critical program to
fight gang violence across California. Paul’s extensive experience and
strong law and order credentials as a former U.S. Attorney and his knowledge
of violence prevention as a former director of the Attorney General’s Crime
and Violence Prevention Center will be instrumental to the success of
CalGRIP. His leadership will be matched with ten outstanding advisors
serving on our CalGRIP Advisory Committee who represent a broad spectrum of
stakeholders from across California who are fighting our gang problem."

As state director of gang and youth violence policy, Seave will coordinate
anti-gang programs and grants at all state agencies, serve as the state
contact for local governments and community organizations and collect,
evaluate and promote local best practices. He will also track all federal
anti-gang funding and grants.

After working as a federal prosecutor for 13 years, Seave served as the
United States Attorney for the Eastern District of California from 1997 to
2001. Seave chaired the Central Valley High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area,
served as co-chair of the Greater Sacramento Hate Crimes Task Force and
founded Project HELP: Sacramento Mobilizing Against Substance Abuse. His
office prosecuted more than 20 Stockton gang members as part of a
multi-agency collaboration that reduced the city’s homicide rate by 75
percent. From 2001 to 2005 Seave was a Special Assistant Attorney General
and Director of the California Attorney General’s Crime and Violence
Prevention Center. In 2005 the Governor named Seave to his current position
as Chief Counsel for the State Board of Education. This position does not
require Senate confirmation and the compensation is $128,004. Seave is a
Democrat.

Today, the Governor also appointed the following CalGRIP Advisory Committee
members (see complete biographies below). Meeting on a regular basis with
the state director of gang and youth violence policy, the committee will
help build comprehensive, long-term strategies to fight gang violence.

Jerry Dyer, Fresno Chief of Police

Harvey Woo, Lieutenant, Sacramento Sheriff’s Department

David L. Brewer III, Superintendent, Los Angeles Unified School District

Jack Calhoun, President, Hope Matters; Leader, 13-California City Gang
Prevention Network

John Shegerian, CEO, Electronic Recyclers, Fresno

Connie Rice, CEO, The Advancement Project, Los Angeles

Reverend Dr. Joseph Bryant Jr., Senior Pastor, Calvary Hill Community
Church, San Francisco

Darryl Charles, Founding Member, Overcoming Gangs, San Diego

Deborah Aguilar, Founder, A Time For Grieving

Sandra Rodriguez, Principal, San Bernardino High School

The Governor today directed the release of $2.8 million in discretionary
Workforce Investment Act funds for local government to expand job training
for at-risk and gang-involved youth and gang members. Under the plan, local
programs will match state funds at a 1:1 ratio, for a $5.6 million total
impact in 2007-08. Next year, CalGRIP will redirect $11.5 million in
uncommitted funds, for a total impact of $23 million.

In May, the Governor introduced CalGRIP to confront the recent dramatic
increase in gangs across the state and their proliferation in suburban and
rural areas. There are more than 420,000 gang members statewide. Gangs are
responsible for crimes including money laundering, extortion, narcotic
production and sales, prostitution, human trafficking, assassinations for
hire, theft and counterfeiting. In spite of an overall decrease in crime in
most California cities since the 1990s, rates of gang-related violent crime
remain steady.

The CalGRIP strategy targets more than $31 million in state and federal
funding toward local anti-gang efforts, including intervention, suppression
and prevention. The program will double funding for witness protection from
the state Victims Restitution Fund to a total of $6 million. CalGRIP will
also establish a "High Risk Gang Offender" designation to subject offenders
to special parole conditions that limit their ability to recruit children
into gangs and limit their access to gang-infested areas. CalGRIP will also
develop a list of community organizations that rehabilitate and provide job
training to former gang members, as a resource for businesses interested in
hiring them. It redirects $1.1 million in uncommitted, discretionary
Juvenile Accountability Block Grants for programs targeting at-risk youth.

The Governor’s enacted 2007-08 Budget invests a total of $547 million in
after-school programs and another $208 million in school counselors to give
at-risk kids alternatives to gang life.

Last month, consistent with CalGRIP, Governor Schwarzenegger committed
additional California Highway Patrol officers to patrol in Oakland in
response to a recent spike in homicides and a request from Mayor Ron
Dellums. Under the program, additional California Highway Patrol officers
will rotate through 90-day deployments in High Intensity Gang Areas.

In July, Governor Schwarzenegger signed SB
< l_number=sb_271&sess=CUR&house=B
&auth or=cedillo> 271 to give prosecutors more tools in the fight against
gangs. Also in July, he signed AB
< ?bill_number=ab_104&sess=CUR&hou
se=B& author=solorio> 104 to give city attorneys the tools they need to
pursue gang injunctions and two other anti-gang measures to assist cities in
curbing the source of income that funds gang activity, SB
< ?bill_number=sb_706&sess=CUR&hou
se=B& author=runner> 706 and AB
< ?bill_number=ab_924&sess=CUR&hou
se=B& author=emmerson> 924.

Over the past several months the Governor has met with mayors, law
enforcement, faith-based and community organizations, local officials and
legislators to discuss how communities across the state are fighting gangs
and what resources they need to strengthen their success. At every meeting
the Governor heard about the same problems: lack of coordination between
state and local agencies and programs, lack of funding and lack of a
comprehensive approach to anti-gang efforts.

Paul Seave

State Director, Gang and Youth Violence Policy, Office of the Governor

After working as a federal prosecutor for 13 years, Seave served as United
States Attorney for the Eastern District of California between 1997 and
2001. In addition to directing an office of 65 attorneys, he chaired the
executive committee of the Central Valley High Intensity Drug Trafficking
Area, served as co-chair of the Greater Sacramento Area Hate Crimes Task
Force, and founded Project HELP: Sacramento Mobilizing Against Substance
Abuse. Seave’s office prosecuted more than 20 Stockton gang members as part
of a multi-agency collaborative that reduced that city’s gang homicide rate
by 75%. From 2001 to 2005, Seave was a Special Assistant Attorney General
and Director of the California Attorney General’s Crime and Violence
Prevention Center. His staff of 40 focused on such areas as domestic
violence, gang violence, and elder abuse. In 2005, Governor Schwarzenegger
named Seave to the position of Chief Counsel for the State Board of
Education, where he served until his current appointment as Director of Gang
and Youth Violence Policy, Office of the Governor.

Seave received his bachelor’s degree in history from Princeton University,
and his law degree cum laude from the University of Pennsylvania Law School.

Deborah Aguilar

Founder, "A Time For Grieving"

Deborah Aguilar is the founder of "A Time For Grieving," a support group for
Salinas mothers who have lost children due to violent crimes. After her son
Stephen was killed in 2002 while driving home from a convenience store,
Aguilar began efforts to unite mothers against gang violence so they could
find ways to cope with tragedy and fight back to protect their communities.
She and other mothers in the group continue to hold candlelight vigils and
organize public rallies to raise awareness about violent crime in the area.
Aguilar is also currently working with Salinas Mayor Dennis Donohue on the
mayor’s anti-gang initiatives.

David L. Brewer III

Superintendent, Los Angeles Unified School District

Brewer was unanimously selected by the LAUSD board to become its
superintendent in October of 2006. Brewer’s experience in managing
large-scale educational operations began in the U.S. Navy, where he served
as the Vice Chief of Naval Education and Training Command. Brewer organized
contracts for the U.S. Navy with 11 institutions of higher-learning, which
have provided bachelor and associate degrees to over 300,000 military
personnel. As Superintendent of the LAUSD, Brewer oversees the
second-largest school district in the United States and a $ 7.5 billion
budget. Brewer also heads the David and Mildred Brewer Foundation, a
philanthropic organization which provides scholarships to African American
students.

Brewer received a B.S. in Biology from Prairie View A&M University in Texas.
He received an M.A. in National Security and Strategic Studies from the
Naval War College in Newport, RI.

Reverend Dr. Joseph Bryant, Jr.

Senior Pastor, Calvary Hill Community Church, San Francisco

Pastor Bryant is the Senior Pastor of Calvary Hill Community Church in San
Francisco, and is the Director of Church Life for the San Francisco
Peninsula Baptist Association (an organization affiliated with 65 churches).
Pastor Bryant oversees Calvary Hill’s community outreach programs, which
offer job training, GED programs, hip-hop workshops and after-school
activities. After graduating from UC Santa Cruz, Bryant worked for nine
years in various capacities for the San Francisco Unified School District.

In May 2003, Rev. Bryant received his Master’s of Theological Studies (MTS)
from the Golden Gate Baptist Theological Seminary. In April 2004, he was
confirmed with an honorary Doctorate of Divinity degree from the Saint
Thomas Christian College.

Jack Calhoun

President, Hope Matters; Leader, 13-California City Gang Prevention Network

Jack Calhoun worked toward founding the National Crime Prevention Council
and served as its CEO for 20 years. He also managed the 4,500-member Crime
Prevention Coalition of America. In 1979, President Carter named Calhoun to
be the U.S. Commissioner of the Administration for Children, Youth and
Families, where he worked on violence-prevention strategies. Over the past
two decades, Calhoun has lectured around the world, and his expertise on
violence-prevention has been featured on programs such as the "Today Show"
and "Larry King Live." As a current leader of the 13-California City Gang
Prevention Network, Calhoun helps to coordinate anti-gang strategies among
federal, state and local governments.

Calhoun holds a B.A. from Brown University, a Master’s in Theology from the
Episcopal Divinity School, and a Master’s in Public Administration from the
Kennedy School at Harvard University.

Darryl Charles

Founding Member of "Overcoming Gangs," San Diego

Darryl Charles owns several small businesses in San Diego; he has been
involved in teen mentoring programs throughout Southern California which
provide inner-city adolescents positive examples of African American men in
their community. Charles also offers employment opportunities and
internships to local at risk families and gang-involved youth. Charles is a
member of Black Men United, providing services to at risk families, the
local community and disengaged youth (ages 18-24). As one of the founding
members of "Overcoming Gangs," Charles focused on highlighting the ways in
which young people from troubled backgrounds can overcome challenges to
become successful entrepreneurs and professionals. Charles serves on San
Diego’s delegation to the 13-cities Gang Advisory Network.

Jerry Dyer

Fresno Chief of Police

Prior to becoming police chief in 2001, Dyer supervised several high-profile
units, including SWAT and the "Major Narcotics Unit." During Chief Dyer’s
tenure, Fresno experienced five consecutive years of crime decreases,
culminating in a 35-year low in crime in 2006. Dyer’s anti-gang efforts
during this period also resulted in over 2,500 gang-related arrests. Chief
Dyer has been extensively involved the Mayor’s Gang Prevention Initiative
(MGPI). Under Dyer, the Fresno Police Department has also developed a
program which assists gang-affiliated individuals to dissolve former ties to
local gangs. Dyer currently serves as the first Vice President of the
California Police Chief’s Association and will assume the role of president
in 2008. Chief Dyer has nearly three decades of law enforcement experience.

Dyer received a B.S. in Criminology from Cal State Fresno; a Master’s Degree
in Management from California Polytechnic University in Pomona; and is a
graduate of the California Command College (where he was voted, "Most
Inspirational Student" by his peers.)

Connie Rice

CEO, The Advancement Project, Los Angeles

Constance (Connie) L. Rice is CEO of the Advancement Project in Los Angeles,
an organization that works to reform local government to improve services
for low income residents. The Advancement Project recently completed a
comprehensive study of Los Angeles’ gang problem, including 13
recommendations for ending gang violence, and presented the study to the Los
Angeles City Council for consideration. Ms. Rice is a civil rights activist
and was previously Co-Director of the Los Angeles office of the NAACP Legal
Defense & Education Fund. Ms. Rice provides commentary for NPR on issues of
civil rights, gang violence, and other legal issues.

She has an AB in government from Harvard (1978) and law degree from New York
University (1984).

Sandra Rodriguez

Principal, San Bernardino High School

Sandra Rodriguez has been a school administrator at San Bernardino High
School (SBHS) for five years; she assumed her role as principal in March of
2006. Since becoming a school administrator, Rodriguez has contributed to a
drastic reduction in the amount of on-campus violence. (She has been
directly responsible for the Safety and Security of San Bernardino High
School for over one year). Rodriguez has also been involved in after-school
programs for most of her career in education. While working in a youth
violence program known as Kids against Crime, she cooperated with law
enforcement agencies and helped victims of crime in the local community.
Since taking over as principal, Rodriguez has additionally created a number
of student programs designed to curb the level of juvenile delinquency at
SBHS and in the surrounding community.

Rodriguez graduated from California Baptist University in 1999. She holds
two master’s degrees; one in Special Education (2000) and another in School
Administration (2002), both of which are from Azusa Pacific University.

John Shegerian

CEO, Electronic Recyclers, Fresno

John S. Shegerian is the Co-Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Electronic
Recyclers, Inc., (ERI), the largest recycler of electronics (such as
unwanted televisions, computers and monitors) in the State of California.

He has co-founded and served in leadership positions on several business
ventures, including FinancialAid.com, Addicted.com and Homeboy Industries.
Mr. Shegerian’s willingness to hire former gang members to staff his
businesses has helped reintegrate many of these individuals back into
society. Mr. Shegerian serves on the California Commission for Jobs and
Economic Growth, as an Ambassador of Education at California State
University at Fresno, and on the Board of the Boys and Girls Club of Fresno.

Shegerian is a graduate of New York University.

Harvey Woo

Lieutenant, Sacramento Sheriff’s Department

Woo has worked in law enforcement for 19 years, serving the various
unincorporated communities in Sacramento. As a lieutenant in the Sacramento
Sheriff’s Office, Woo was the Central Division Assistant Commander for the
2005 Asian Homicide-Gang Task Force. Woo had worked as a detective in the
Gang Suppression Unit and served as an expert instructor on street gang
validation and investigation. Woo has experience managing Patrol Operations
and Corrections Operations of the Sacramento Sheriff’s Office, overseeing a
staff of nearly 300 and a budget of over $38 million. Woo was recently
reassigned from Corrections to serve as the Assistant Commander of the
Northeast Patrol Division. Woo is also on the Board of Directors of the
Asian Peace Officer Association.

Harvey Woo holds a B.S. in Criminal Justice from Cal State Sacramento.

###

MONTH OF PRESERVATION OF CAUCASIAN LEOPARD TO BE ORGANIZED IN ARMENIA

Noyan Tapan
Sep 3, 2007

YEREVAN, SEPTEMBER 1, NOYAN TAPAN. The Armenian branch of the World
Wildlife Fund jointly with the Armenia-Marriott Hotel will organize
the action "Preservation of Caucasian Leopard" in Armenia from Septemer
1 to October 4.

The director of the WWF Armenian Branch Karen Manvelian said at the
August 30 press conference that the Caucasian leopard was included
in the Red Book in 1970 and is currently one of the most endangered
animal speacies in the ecoregion. According to preliminary data,
there are 5-8 leopards in Armenia.

K. Manvelian said that within the action’s framework, the habitat
of these animals will be controlled, with favorable conditions being
created for their reproduction. Besides, the problem of preserving the
endangered Armenian mouflon and bezoar goat, as well as the problem
of restoration of specially protected areas will be partly solved.

In his words, it is envisaged to establish, jointly with Iran, "Arevik"
specially protected area in Meghri region to ensure migration of
leopards from Armenia to Iran.

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Sept 3 2007

Soli Özel: Turkey’s relations hostage to Armenian issue

The Armenian issue will be a priority for the new government because
it’s blocking our international relations, says Soli Özel, a senior
lecturer in international relations and political science at Ýstanbul
Bilgi University, specializing in Turkey’s relations with the United
States.

"There has been talk that the Turkish government should do something
about the border with Armenia. Some say Armenians should do something
before Turkey does something. There are people in this country
dissenting from the official version of what happened in 1915.

Those people would have much more credibility than any of the
official people that we send around. Have the historians work on the
issue and have the dissenters on the historical committee,’ Özel
said.

Recently, the US-based Anti-Defamation League (ADL) reversed its
long-time policy concerning the killings of Anatolian Armenians in
the early 20th century and said the killings of Armenians by Ottoman
Turks `were indeed tantamount to genocide.’

Armenians claim up to 1.5 million of their kinsmen died in a genocide
campaign by Ottoman Turks around the time of World War I, but Ankara
rejects the label, saying both Armenians and Turks died in civil
strife when the Armenians took up arms for independence in eastern
Anatolia, siding with Russian troops that were invading the crumbling
Ottoman Empire.

And there is a non-binding `Armenian genocide resolution’ pending at
the US Congress, likely to pass next year. Özel said there might be a
crisis over the Armenian issue with the US.

For Monday Talk, Özel told us the circumstances that prompted the
ADL’s stance, what the Turkish government can do at this point and
how Turkey’s relations with the US have been affected.

How should we put the ADL’s decision into perspective?

First we have to distinguish the position that the ADL now wishes to
take vis-à-vis whether or not what happened in 1915 should be
considered genocide. And second, whether or not the ADL should
support a genocide resolution in the US Congress. In terms of
Turkey’s political demands of the Jewish agencies’ not supporting the
resolution in the US Congress, their position remains the same, but
obviously the fact that they are changing their position in terms of
how to judge the events of 1915 undermines that political position,
at least vis-à-vis some Congress people who may be susceptible to
their pressures.

Do we need to talk about the internal dynamics of the organization?

Whether or not this is purely an internal affair or it is to be
understood in a context, these two are linked, but I think the
immediate crisis that we’ve seen was a function of an internal ADL
development. When we look at the chronology of events, what we see is
the New England chapter elects a new president, Andrew Tarsy. He
decides to call what happened in 1915 genocide, and he is summarily
dismissed from his position. There is an upheaval within ADL, so
Abraham Foxman says, yes indeed, we consider these brutalities and
violence as genocide; we’ve changed our position in terms of how
we’re going to be naming what happened.

Foxman had also an announcement after that. Was it a step back?

The second announcement by the ADL was not a step back. However, one
has to take into consideration … [that] the Jews are the most liberal
community in the American political system; they take the lead in
every humanitarian cause. And when even the entire country was in
favor of a war against Iraq, most Jews had been against it as a
community, in spite of the fact that many of the neoconservatives
themselves were of Jewish origin. So you could not really as Turkey
go on indefinitely expecting from such a liberally minded, sensitive
constituency to go against its own better judgment in an age when the
term genocide has been a bit depreciated, has been `desanctified,’ if
you will, not to really go the extra mile and say what happened
really is genocide.

Did some of Turkey’s foreign policy steps, like becoming friendly
with Syria and Iran, have an effect on the ADL’s decision?

There are circumstances that make it easier for an internal dynamic
within the organization to make it possible for the organization
itself to change course. And that is of course the recent events
during the term of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party): the
invitation of Hamas, Turkey’s reluctance to accept it as other
Western countries do as a terrorist organization, cozy relations with
Syria, and far more importantly very cozy relations with Iran, which
Israel sees as a mortal enemy — and obviously many American Jews
share that perception of the Israelis. The fact that Turkey has not
been very vocal in protesting the holocaust denying conference in
Iran, and Turkey has not been against the nonsensical remarks of
[Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad who questioned the holocaust
and called for wiping Israel off the world map, these are strong
words, as far as the Israelis and the Jewish community in America
were concerned, Turkey’s reaction was not at a desired level.

The American Jewish Committee took a political stand too when its
head wrote, `Picture a day when a muscle-flexing Iran or Saudi Arabia
seeks to make denial of the Holocaust a condition of doing business
with other countries.’

What in my view is far more politically oriented was an editorial
written in The Jerusalem Post by David Harris, national executive
director for the American Jewish Committee, a much more hard-core,
politically engaged organization in Jewish affairs, probably more
attuned to Israeli sentiment. I cannot suggest that Israel has asked
these organizations to do what they’ve done. It was [Israeli
President] Shimon Peres’ intervention which led Foxman to equivocate
rather than take a step back. But in the context there is enough
circumstantial reasoning to suspect that there has been some give and
take.

Why did Peres step in?

Because Turkey asked him to step in. Turkey basically threatened that
Turkish-Israeli relations would suffer gravely and instead of calling
the American ambassador, we called in the Israeli ambassador, and in
my judgment we made a mistake there by erasing the distinction
between the American-Jewish community and American domestic politics,
and Israel. I personally don’t see why Israel would overtly offend
Turkey and push those organizations. Also I wouldn’t think that these
organizations would act only when Israel told them to do something. I
think in that particular case, they’ve acted on their own, fully
knowing how Israel would react and the repercussions.

Have the Jewish organizations been really willing to fight Turkey’s
fight?

Over the last few years the Jewish organizations have been more
reluctant to go out to fight Turkey’s fight. Because let’s admit it,
this is a losing fight because of the way we choose to fight this
resolution issue. We made many mistakes that weakened our position
and made our believability suspect.

What type of mistakes?

At a time when you’re discussing whether genocide took place, and
your argument is, no it was reciprocal and the Armenians did the most
harm, the head of your historical association comes up with an idea,
which is anathema to anyone let alone the Jews, of having lists of
people based on their ethnic origin. And the government has not
disassociated itself [from this].

What should have been done?

We should have talked about the context, we should have talked about
nationalism, and we should have talked about the responsibility of
the great powers in both instigating certain things and being
perpetrators of some other things. But most importantly, we should
have been able to express regret that such a human tragedy has taken
place. Then you could ask for respect for all who have died during
World War I. The Turkish Republic is not responsible for what
happened in 1915. The Turkish authorities could express deep sorrow
for the tragedies that happened.

So the Turkish strategy has failed?

Obviously the strategy to stop this momentum, to stop the US Congress
from passing a non-binding resolution, has utterly and miserably
failed. Let’s just recognize this, a congresswoman elected from
California who is the speaker of the house today cannot afford —
unless extraordinary circumstances are present — not to bring the
resolution to the floor of Congress before the 2008 elections. There
are more than 225 co-signatories already. Unjustly perhaps, but this
is the battle Turkey has lost.

How could Turkey change the terms of the debate?

What the Armenian diaspora wants is to call it genocide. We don’t
have to accept that. Nobody in Turkey will accept that. But we have
played along in this name game. It’s not the naming game what is
important; the real issue is to get into the bottom of things. You
can take what [Yusuf] Halaçoðlu [head of the Turkish Historical
Society (TTK)] had said and turn the table around. You can say this
is really a multireligious and multiethnic land. We have people who
felt compelled to convert to Islam, obviously to save their lives.
Use the same fact for a different narrative. By accepting the name
game, you basically put the entire population face to face with a
major threat. By putting the issue in an ethnic and nationalistic
discourse, you made an emotional interpretation of what happened.
First, you have to change the air, and then you can discuss things.

How would normalizing relations with Armenia help Turkey?

The only reason I could see why Turkey would not do such a thing is
because of Azerbaijan and sensitivities among the Turkish public that
20 percent of Azerbaijan proper, in addition to Nagorno-Karabakh, is
under occupation; people are refugees in their own countries and the
Armenians are doing nothing about it, the world community is not
doing anything — then why open the border. If Turkey were to open
the [border] gate with Armenia, it would have much more influence on
Armenia than it has today. Secondly, it will be better able to
explain its position, because many foreigners do not know of our
unofficial flights between Yerevan and Turkey; there are about 30,000
Armenians who actually work here. And finally, border towns want the
borders to be opened because they suffer economically. I think we
should also reason it out with the Azeris as well and get on with
life. This would be enough to help Turkey with the Armenian
resolution.

If the resolution passes next year, would Turkey close Ýncirlik base?

Turkey will have to respond to this. I don’t think it will
necessarily close down Ýncirlik altogether but it may not allow
supplies to be sent from Ýncirlik. Which, by the way, may be the only
way for the Bush administration to convince Congress — if that is
the case then the lives of American soldiers would be jeopardized.
The Bush administration may then put the blame on the Democrats and
say, `You jeopardized the lives of American troops.’ It may also
backfire on the Republicans and the Democrats may say, `We always
told you Turkey was an unreliable ally — at a time when our troops
are suffering they’re doing this to us.’

What are the other foreign policy priorities ahead of the new Turkish
government?

Relations with the European Union of course, but I’d say relations
with the United States. Our relations with the United States have an
effect on all of our other relations, including Iran, Iraq, the rest
of the Middle East and Russia. We’ve got to have a new understanding
with the United States as to where we want to take those relations.
The time may come when Turkey will have to choose between Iran and
the United States, or Iran and the West, or even Iran, Russia and the
West. Even though Iraq has harmed US-Turkish relations gravely, we’ve
got have a dialogue and we have to be much more actively be part of
the solution. Turkey is probably the best-meaning of the parties
involved in Iraq, but because of our inability to deal with the
Kurdish issue, we have not been recognized as a constructive actor.
We’ve got to come to an understanding with the United States about
what they want to do in Iraq and what we want to do in Iraq. Mending
our relations with the United States is a priority foreign policy
issue, in addition to the European Union.

—————————————– ———————–

[PROFILE]

Soli Özel
A senior lecturer in international relations and political science at
Ýstanbul Bilgi University, he is also a columnist for the daily
Sabah. He has also taught at UC Santa Cruz, Johns Hopkins University
School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), the University of
Washington, Hebrew University and Ýstanbul’s Boðaziçi University. He
has received fellowships from St. Antony’s College, Oxford
University, the EU Institute of Security Studies and the Woodrow
Wilson Center for International Scholars. His pieces have been
published in international publications.

03.09.2007

YONCA POYRAZ DOÐAN

YOUTH WILL NO LONGER HAVE PROBLEMS

Panorama.am
19:46 31/08/2007

The youth and sport ministry has announced a program of action for
2008-2012.

As pointed out by Lilit Grigoryan, head of the events organization
press committee, a budget for 2008 has already been presented.

In her words, "The planned expenses picked up by the government are
foreseen for more than one decade. The main part of the program is
to ensure youth take an active part in civil life, helping them to
mature and develop spiritually, culturally, and patriotically.

According to Grigoryan, the program foresees strengthening ties between
the government and youth organizations, studying economic and social
issues of youth, and ways to bring all this to realization.

Grigoryan also plans to concentrate efforts on youth in the
regions. "It is very important to know what issues these youth have,"
she said. "For this reason, we will expend much effort in this field,
including the creation of youth centers for communities in these
regions."

CHALLENGE TO THE WHOLE STATE
Arthur Hovhannisyan

Hayots Ashkharh Daily, Armenia
Aug 28 2007

As we know on August 25, 2007, at around midnight Third Class Justice
Consultant, Procurator of Lory province Albert Karush Ghazaryan has
been shot dead by an unknown person, in front of his house.

Four gunfires have been aimed at A. Ghazaryan’s direction, due to
which the procurator got 3 transparent and 1 blind injuries around
his back, shoulders and neck. During the investigation of the scene
of action 4 bullets of "Makarov" gun has been found. The same day an
operative-investigative group headed by the acting Prosecutor General
Mnatsakan Sargsyan left for the scene of action. The investigation
of the scene of action and the body, ballistic and dactiloscopic
expertise has been conducted.

A criminal case has been instituted under the proceeding of the
investigative department of the Prosecutor’s General, based on the
2nd point, of the 2nd part of article 104 of the Criminal Code, which
means the murder is linked to the official duties of the individual
(in this case A. Ghazaryan). We must add that in this case the
punishment is 8-15 years or life imprisonment.

An investigative group has been set up on the occasion of the
Procurator’s murder, which involves the most experienced employees
of RA Prosecutor’s, Police, and National Security.

Because the report of the Prosecutor’s General mentions about not
a person but persons, we can presume that they tend to think that
it was an ordered murder. By the way it is also not excluded that a
foreign killer has committed the murder, because the inhabitants of
the building said they have noticed a man with Slovenian appearance
some time before the murder.

We should also underscore that during the murder A. Ghazaryan’s
neighbors were awake but they didn’t hear any voice, which means the
killer has used a deafening gun, the favorite arm of the hired killers.

A. Ghazaryan has been appointed as the Procurator of Lory province on
March 28, 2006. Before that, beginning from the January of 1999 he has
worked as a deputy Prosecutor of the same province. On May 26, 2007, by
the decree of the President he has been appointed as Third Cass Justice
Consultant. In general, we believe it will be a difficult task for
the experienced employees of the Prosecutor’s, National Security, and
police to disclose the before mentioned murder. Not only because the
ordered murders (because most probably the murder has been ordered),
which professional killers usually commit, are very difficult to
disclose. The problem is – due to his official duties A. Ghazaryan has
"trodden on many people’s corns", has disclosed many crimes and abuses
that could arouse vindictiveness among many individuals. Let’s touch
upon one case that is connected with the sphere of nature conservation.

It turns out that those in charge of nature conservation in the
Ministry of Nature Conservation have themselves been engaged in illegal
woodcutting. Person in Charge of Forest Conservation G. Chobanyan and
forest-keeper A. Chobanyan has been detained. The Person in Charge of
Forest Conservation in Marts, A. Ghazaryan, Chief of Lory province
department of the Ministry of Nature Conservation state inspection
A. Grigoryan, his assistant H. Gharagyozyan and others have organized
an illegal woodcut and used it for construction work. Criminal case
has been instituted for the before mentioned fact, based on the 3rd
part of article 296 of the Criminal Code.

We can enumerate many other disclosures in the sphere of nature
conservation in which A. Ghazaryan had big part. Anyhow we should
underscore that ordered murders are not mainly manifestations of
revenge, but attempt to bury the facts that the person possesses,
in order to avoid other disclosures and finally criminal liability.

Let’s remember another, fresher criminal case disclosed in Lory
provinces. The latter was linked to the major of Vanadsor Samvel
Darbinyan, his brother – Seyran Darbinyan, as well as ex-governor of
Lory province Henrik Kochinyan.

The before mentioned criminal case was linked with the fact of
large-scale robberies in the dirty-water-cleaning station in
Vanadsor. The construction of the station was 95% completed in 1994.

According to one of the decisions taken by the government in 2005,
the final construction of the station has been given to Vanadsor
community. And the commission set up by the municipality and regional
council was in charge of the process.

It is noteworthy that neither the regional council of Lory province
nor the municipality of Vanadsor appointed responsible people to
supervise the expensive water-cleaning station, due to which beginning
from 1996 to 2007 expensive equipments, pipes, construction material
have been taken from the station.

We would like to quote a small part from an article published in
28.07.2007 issue of ‘Hayots Ashkharh" daily.

" During 2004, by the permission of ex-Governor of Lory province Henrik
Kochinyan (written but not registered), and by the recommendation of
the director of "Argishty-1" CJSC the concrete production knot of the
station has been dissembled and has been used for the construction
of Grigor Narekatsy Church.

It turned out that the 1 million dollar’s construction work of the
church has been implemented by "Argishty-1" CJSC, which is the personal
business-initiative of Major of Vanadsor S. Darbinyan. We should
mention that the project of the construction of this church hasn’t
envisaged concrete transference from the water-cleaning station. And
after the construction work the equipments of the knot have been
shifted to the territory of "Argishty-1" CJSC." We should also mention
that the thing is about a concrete knot, worth 30 000 US dollars.

Whereas the water-cleaning station is not the only object given to
Vanadsor community by the 176 A, 2005, decision of the government on
" Giving the non-finished constructions under the responsibility
of the communities." In what state were other objects? Where they
complete or in the same state? It is quite understandable that the
investigation was going to be spread on this route, by the initiative
of Lory Procurator.

Anyhow the before mentioned facts don’t mean that A. Ghazaryan’s
murder has been implemented by those people.

Lory province has always been famous for its complicated criminal
situation. And a principled Procurator like A. Ghazaryan could
definitely have many enemies. By the way as far as we could clarify,
A. Ghazaryan was a, mildly speaking, undesirable personality for
employees of the provincial police department as well. He would inform
his superiors about their violations.

Anyhow the disclosure of the case mainly depends on how experiences
those involved in the investigative group are. We shouldn’t overlook
the fact that A. Ghazaryan’s murder is a challenge not only to the
prosecutor’s system but also the whole state.

SUGGESTED ‘TO DO LIST’ FOR PRESIDENT GUL
By Bulent Kenes

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Aug 29 2007

Finally the presidential election, a subject of debate and tension
for almost the entire past year, ended yesterday and Abdullah Gul
was elected president after winning the highest percentage of votes
in the history of Turkey’s presidential elections. I would like to
congratulate him with great sincerity for his success. Gul’s presidency
is an unprecedented victory for Turkey’s democracy and will be recorded
in history as such. If democracy stipulates reflecting the public
will in all administrative mechanisms, then we can expect President
Gul to restructure all state institutions so as to comply with the
public’s strong will and expectations. On the contrary, not to expect
the public’s democratic reflex to echo in the state mechanism or the
opposition of such a natural process would be simply futile.

So what kind of a president should Gul be? What should he do
first? What type of actions should he take? Should he dismiss the
inaccurate criticisms and baseless suspicions about himself? How can
he hint at what he plans to do in Cankaya over the next seven years?

In the first weeks as president, Gul will have to display an
extraordinary performance so that the presidential post is not still
evaluated by his and his wife’s identity.

As the national arbitrator he should combine the increasing
dynamism of the Turkish people with the state’s organized power and
experience. With the resulting powerful synergy, he should be the
driving force for a greater and faster improvement.

Humbly I constructed a "to do list" which I recommend President Gul
should glance at.

1) After being sworn in and receiving the presidency from Sezer
yesterday evening, President Gul should immediately welcome each
nongovernmental organization that represents a different part of
society, such as the Sunnis, Alevis, workers, employers, farmers,
industrialists, westerners, easterners, leftists and rightists and
understand what they expect from him as the president. Of course
President Gul should also welcome political parties from both ends
of the political spectrum and listen to them too.

2) His visits to the military, Supreme Council, Higher Education
Board and other state institutions should be more than just courtesy
visits. He should attempt to understand the sensitivities of these
institutions and try to shape relations with them bearing in mind
common sensitivities.

3) Within the first week, or at least before he visits any other
country, he must travel the entire nation. He should begin his tour
from the Southeast, in fact he should start from Hakkari. He should not
just meet with the bureaucracy and security officials in the region,
but he should arrange mass meetings with the regional public.

He should embrace people both in Ýstanbul and in Hakkari and he must
repeat this in many cities such as Edirne, Ýzmir, Adana, Trabzon,
and Rize.

The purpose of these visits should be to show the public that
he is not the president of just the administrative elite, but
for everyone. People should be able to feel deep down that he is
everyone’s president — be they Turk, Kurd, Circassian, Laz, Alevi,
Sunni, Armenian or Russian. He must be able to prove that national
unity and solidarity is not strictly dependent on a sulky power
enforcement associated with the state, but that it can also be achieved
by developing sympathy and empathy and by embracing each other.

4) After his predecessor Ahmet Necdet Sezer, who acted as though he
was president of just the state and elitist oligarchy and remained
isolated in the Cankaya Palace away from the people with his cold
and banal character, President Gul should open the Cankaya Palace to
the public. He should prove that it is not just the state’s highest
point but that it is the place where the state meets the public. In
this regard he should immediately put an end to the "public area"
nonsense that Sezer started.

5) After he completes his nationwide tour and obtains the support of
the public, President Gul should begin fulfilling the actions most
expected of him; diplomatic initiatives, and international visits. I
am certain that economic circles are anticipating these high-profile
and enlightening visits, which were last held during the term of
the late Turgut Ozal. However President Gul should have a plan when
conducting these visits. He should place equal importance on all
countries. He should visit Western countries, Christian countries,
Muslim countries, and neighboring and far countries alike. He should
also visit Central Asian Turkish republicans. Mending the years of
neglect at a presidential level, he should again strengthen relations
with these sister countries.

As Today’s Zaman’s headline put it yesterday, "Gul boosts expectations
from the presidency." In all, a high profile statesman such as
President Gul should not have trouble responding to these expectations.

–Boundary_(ID_QsuOCmg9sgirPdB06+nk OA)–

ARMENIAN PEOPLE’S PARTY THINKS IT IS EARLY TO HOLD NEW MEETING OF THE OPPOSITION LEADER IN A WIDE FORMAT

arminfo
2007-08-29 11:29:00

‘We think it is early to hold new meeting of the opposition leader
in a wide format. At present we are at the stage of the bilateral
consultations’, – press-secretary of the Armenian People’s Party Ruzan
Khachatryan told ArmInfo correspondent when commenting on the results
of yesterday’s meeting of the leaders of some political forces in
Congress hotel.

She also added that the present stage of consultations must not
suppose the meeting that are open for mass media. The situation of
the artificially heated up interest around the consultations thwarts
the opposition forces to consolidate.

She also specified that the PPA did not connect any specific hopes
with yesterday’s meeting of the opposition leaders.

From Oppression to Training Olympians

The New York Times
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: August 26, 2007

The family sat in the airport, minutes from its long-awaited exodus
from the Soviet Union in 1989. But there was one more insult: a
decision no child should have to make.

There were two boxes, one filled with the mother’s most expensive
jewelry and keepsakes, and the other with the medals the daughter had
won during her successful but unappreciated gymnastics career in the
Soviet Union.

`Pick one,’ a guard in the security line told Armine Barutyan and her
family.

It was the final slap in the face that Barutyan endured before she
moved to the United States and became one of this country’s most
successful gymnastics coaches.

`Some of the things they did to me, I’ll just never understand,’ said
Barutyan, now coaching Ivana Hong, a 14-year-old California native,
and trying to take her on the Olympic road she was never allowed to
travel.

If not for that, Barutyan’s name might be as familiar today as that of
the Russian superstar Svetlana Khorkina, or maybe Nadia
Comaneci. Barutyan’s heyday came before the 1984 Olympics, when the
Soviets boycotted the Los Angeles Games, a political reprisal for the
United States boycott of the Moscow Games in 1980.

Barutyan’s father grew up in Syria and her mother in Jerusalem. The
family moved to Armenia after World War II. But decades later, the
Barutyans were still viewed as outsiders.

Being Armenian in the postwar Soviet Union was a disadvantage for
anyone like Barutyan looking for a promising sports career.

The Soviets wanted Barutyan to move closer to Moscow – not that
unusual, even now, in Eastern European countries where centralized
gymnastics training is common. They also wanted her to change her name
from Armenian to a Russian-sounding surname. `I didn’t want to do
that,’ she said. `That was my family. I didn’t understand why they
would want me to be someone else.’

She paid a price for her recalcitrance. The Soviets took away her
uniforms, her spot on the national team and dropped her in the
standings at some meets – all to send a message.

In the 1980s, Barutyan was performing gymnastic moves that no other
women were even thinking about. Her dismount off the uneven bars
included three backflips. Off the balance beam, she did a double
layout – two flips with her legs straight.

Barutyan recalled when, despite her top performances, she was left off
the national team for the biggest trips. Once, after the team returned
from an international meet at which Barutyan finished second, the team
had an audience in front of a Soviet government official.

`Who finished first?’ the official asked.

`Svetlana Boginskaya,’ the coach of the gymnastics program responded,
speaking of the Russian gymnast, one of Barutyan’s contemporaries, who
went on to win four medals at the 1988 Olympics.

`And who finished second?’ the official said.

`Not one of us,’ the coach responded.

`I was Armenian,’ said Barutyan, who was left off that 1988 Olympic
team despite being one of the Soviet Union’s best. `Things like that
happen, and it hurts. They make you feel like nothing.’

More than 20 years later, those insults still sting. Barutyan talks
about it much more calmly than her husband, Al Fong, who met Barutyan
shortly after she moved to the United States.

Barutyan had walked into a Los Angeles gymnasium owned by a friend of
Fong’s. The friend was a pack rat and a gymnastics nut.

He recognized Barutyan immediately and took her to his office to show
her magazines with her pictures and videotapes of her performances.

She had no idea any of the material existed. The Soviets did not want
her knowing that anybody else thought she was worthy of worldwide
coverage.

`He called me and said, `You know who just walked in here?’ ‘ Fong
said. `He said I had to hire her.’

He married her, too.

Over the last eight years, Fong and Barutyan have established one of
the best elite training centers in the country, Great American
Gymnastics Express outside Kansas City, Mo.

`My wife and I are passionate about training Olympians,’ Fong
said. `We call it our life’s work. Everything we do from the business
we have to the lifestyle we lead is driven around that.’

Fong’s voice mail message says: `Sorry you missed us, we’re out, busy
training Olympians.’

In 2004, the couple placed Courtney McCool and Terin Humphrey on the
squad that took a silver medal at the Athens Games. Humphrey also won
a silver on uneven bars.

With the Beijing Olympics less than a year away, Hong looks like the
couple’s best prospect for 2008. Hong is a member of the United States
team that is going to Germany for the world championships, which begin
Saturday.

The national team coordinator Martha Karolyi said Hong stood out
because of `the preciseness, the body lines, the perfection of the
technique and the execution.’

Much of that detail would look familiar to anyone who saw Barutyan
perform in the 1980s.

Which might explain why, when faced with the choice of taking her
mother’s keepsakes or her gymnastics medals, she chose the medals.

But Barutyan’s father later found a friend who knew someone at the
K.G.B. and arranged for a bribe to be paid to a security man at the
airport. That way, both boxes made it.

`She’s arguably the most powerful single female gymnastics coach in
the U.S.,’ Fong said. `And now, nobody’s going to take anything away
from her. Not uniforms, not recognition, not anything.’

ARKA News Agency, Armenia
Aug 22 2007

Reforms of second generation necessity in Armenia

YEREVAN, August 21. /ARKA/. Armenia must carry out reforms of the
second generation at a very high rate, the Prorector for University
Education Development, Russian-Armenia (Slavonic) University, former
minister of finance and economy of Armenia, Professor Edward Sandoyan
stated in his interview to the ARKA News Agency.

`It is a happy fact that during the parliamentary election campaign
RA Premier Serge Sargsyan repeatedly pointed out the necessity for
reforms of the second generation in the country. All this suggests
that we will have rapid changes.’

Sandoyan expressed his satisfaction over the fact that the
Government’s economic team has been replenished with highly
experienced professionals. Specifically, he believes that the
appointment of Nerses Yeritsyan RA Minister of Trade and Economic
Development is a hope-inspiring factor as Yeritsyan has proved to be
a `first-rate professional not involved in any political games.’

`Everything suggests that the public is mature to realize the need
for professionals, without whom progress, especially in reforms of
the second generation, is impossible,’ Sandoyan said.

According to him, Armenia has not made any headway since 1999,
reforms have mainly slowed down and even stopped, even in the spheres
that are in urgent need for them. The problem is that we can miss a
chance for rapid and essential development if we fail to implement
necessary reforms in certain spheres.

What is the need for reforms of the second generation?

The first stage of reforms, which was launched when Armenia gained
its independence, implies transition from planned economy to market
economy. The transition was chaotic and difficult, accompanied by
serious problems resultant from the collapse of the USSR,
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, aftermath of the earthquake, loss of all
corporate ties. The situation was so serious that Armenia ranked
first or second among the former USSR republics as to economic
recession.

In those conditions Armenia managed not only to survive, but also
overcome most serious problems, chiefly restore the disaster area,
but also – and this is the most important – ensure the institutional
bases for market economy. This process was most complicated and
accompanied by both faults and effective solutions. However, all of
this is for historians.

What should be done next?

We are now in a situation, when our economy can hardly be defined as
market economy. It has features formally resembling those of market
economy, but they are in essence far from being features of market
economy. This is the reason for public discontent, and Armenia
remains a country of modest means, in the aspect of both per capita
GDP and infrastructure development. The main problem is that we have
low-level economic competition and, consequently, high-level
concentration of business and property, monopolization of various
trade and economic fields.

We have high-level corruption and low-level economic competitiveness
compared to the counterpart countries. The export-oriented economic
sector is not efficiently developed in the country, whereas this is
the only direction of our further development. The institutions of
protection of property right, competition, contract enforcement are
in embryo. The matter concerns inefficient legislation,
administration and judicial power. More complicated tasks involve
reforms of education, science and public health.

We have serious regional, energy, transport and communication
problems, which hinders the country’s further development as well,
especially when the matter concerns regional integration, including
transport and energy integration.

All of this requires reforms of the second generation –
institutional, more essential reforms, which can be most painful and
long-term ones. They cannot be carried out in a year or in three
years, but they should have been started long ago. Strong
authorities, enjoying the population’s confidence, are able to start
such reforms.

I can see this potential now. The parliamentary elections reduced the
number of populists, the degree of destructivism, and we see the
legislative body more logically completed. This can enable us to make
a breakthrough. Therefore, the authorities need the population’s
great confidence to make some, even unpopular, steps, which are
certain to produce results.

What is the importance of economic reforms?

Reforms are necessary for maintaining positive macroeconomic
indicators. At first sight, these indicators are stable in Armenia –
steady economic growth, the second largest growth among developing
countries after Azerbaijan. A rather stable market situation, low
controllable inflation and considerable reduction of poverty and
unemployment.
However, when we look at the quality of economic growth, we can
notice the lack of deep institutional economic reforms.

This is fraught with most serious consequences because we are now
using the natural conditions producing results. If we continue on the
same lines, we may lose all the sources of economic growth.

Over the last 15 years, Armenia’s economic growth has mainly been
ensured due to economic rehabilitation. Among other very strong
clusters of economic growth have been import substitution and
diamond-cutting. However, import substitution cannot be an
everlasting process, and the diamond-cutting industry, which has for
a long time constituted 30%-40% of our exports and imports, is
beginning to decline because of more expensive labor force.

Unfortunately, construction is the principal cluster of economic
growth. Of course, it is good that our construction industry is
developing. But the point is that it is housing construction, not the
construction of enterprises, that is being carried in the country,
which will not result in rapid multiplication of potential of
economic capacities, but only in the improvement of housing
conditions and of the quality of the country’s housing stock. This is
very good and important, but the element of consumption is very
strong here. Using conventional terms, we can say that it is
important for us to develop sectors and clusters, which can create
new potential for further development.

Another cluster is agriculture. This is a good thing, especially in
agricultural produce processing. But its potential is seriously
limited as well.

Moreover, the situation can be complicated due to the fact that,
under the WTO-set terms, we are to make our agricultural sector
taxable soon, which will cause a rise in the price for agricultural
produce and reduce competitiveness on the foreign market. If the
financial bodies fail to ensure adequate taxation, and the Government
fails to find the right mechanisms of backing the agricultural
sector, it may cause serious quasifiscal losses. On the one hand we
will have higher prices, and on the other hand we will not be able to
enhance the efficiency it the agricultural sector by backing it.

Further economic growth may slow down without economic innovations.
Armenia needs the development of economic innovations. This requires
a very high education level, which may take years and even decades.
It would be naïve to believe that rapid development of information
and high technologies is possible in the country. With the domestic
potential lacking, it is only possible when a technologically mature
investor having efficient innovations makes high-quality strategic
investments. However, this requires a proper investment climate.

High-quality human capital is also necessary, which is ensured
through education. Our education system leaves much to be desired,
and the investments we have been making are insufficient and
inefficient. Even if we increase the investments, they will not
produce any results, as structural and institutional reforms are
required, which would ensure the compatibility with the technologies
and mechanisms that are producing results in Europe and the USA. In
any case, if we do not have new economy, the economic growth may slow
down in the future.

Our Diaspora is our oil!

One of our major advantages is a mobile and active Diaspora, which
provides Armenia’s economy with money transfers. Our Diaspora is our
oil. And if financial institutes are efficient and adequate to this
situation, economy will have great advantage. Economy is getting
serious injections from the Diaspora – according to some data, up to
$1.5bln a year. If this sum is compared with Armenia’s GDP and state
budget, it will be clear that this is the most significant factor of
economic growth, source of its financing.

The money flows eventually increase the population’s solvent demand,
which is the major factor enhancing the economic capacity, and if we
properly adjust our economy to financial institutes now, we will get
a great effect without ecological and financial problems.
At present, the Armenian community in Russia is most active. It is
due to them that we can see large-scale construction in the center of
Yerevan. This is a new generation, the ones that left Armenia in
early 1990s, got firmly established and made great progress in
business. This community ensures increase in direct foreign
investments and private foreign transfers.
However, the two components of economic growth create certain
problems. We are under the threat of what is known as `Dutch
disease’.

Dedollarization of Armenia’s economy in progress.

The result of the increase in currency supply in Armenia is that,
over the last three years, we have observed unprecedented revaluation
of the Armenian dram and, therefore, dedollarization of economy and
high-rate enhancement of the Armenian dram’s role in the money
supply.

On the one had, this is a positive factor, which affords ample
opportunities to enhance the efficiency of monetary and credit policy
being implemented by the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) and of the
channels of influence on the money market.

However, this worsens the conditions for development of most of the
export-oriented clusters. We can also observe the devaluation of the
population’s private transfers and savings as most of them are in the
form of foreign exchange. Since, according to the CBA, about 36% of
the country’s population are dependent on private transfers, in many
cases their real purchasing power is reduced due to the USD
devaluation. This results in the most dangerous phenomenon, namely,
the rise in the cost of living in Armenia. This situation is to
importers’ great advantage, which is bad for economy, as we must have
an opposite situation, which would not contribute to the increase of
exports.

When we face the rise in the cost of living and human capital, that
is, labor force, we must take into account the fact than many
businesses will become unprofitable.

We can already notice a decline in jewelry production, because
diamond production and cutting mainly involve labor expenditures. The
rise in labor expenditures causes a rise in production costs. This
makes many enterprises reduce their output, and unfortunately, they
may very soon stop operating, as it will be much more effective to
establish such production in such countries as China and India.

The same can be observed in the sphere of information and high
technologies. A programmer has become an expensive pleasure in
Armenia. This is not the low-paid labor force two or three years ago.

On the other hand, it should be noted that the future of the
country’s economy must not be built on low-paid labor force as,
sooner or later, this factor come to an end under conditions of
economic growth.

However, labor force became more expensive in Armenia not due to
larger incomes, but because to the rise in cost of living, and the
rise in the cost of labor force was relative, not direct. In the USD
terms our workers receive more, but in the AMD terms their incomes
actually remain the same.

Problems of lack of institutes of financial intermediation.

If these processes had been accompanied by natural changes on the
market, the revaluation of the national currency would have caused a
fall in prices, first of all in import prices, unless any
considerable rise in the world prices for some imported products was
recorded. We do not have this. On the contrary, the prices for many
goods and services are rising.

All this causes a rise in the cost of living and labor force. We are
having an increase in the purchasing-power parity, and the closer it
is to European and American prices, the less efficient our economy
will be, because all this is not the result of economic growth,
related natural processes and the population’s enrichment, but of
only the exchange rate policy.
This is the main danger. We need very serious reforms. Specifically,
when we speak of the money market, we need a developed financial
sector, instruments and financial products, which would allow us to
attract considerable funds from the consumer market and direct them
to longer-term capital and other projects. This function is performed
by relevant institutes of financial intermediation we are lacking.

Steps to create a system of nongovernmental accumulative pension
fund, mortgage crediting market, conditions for development of all
types of insurance, including life insurance, have been necessary for
a long time.

Insurance and pension funds must be come the organizations to come to
the capital market with `long’ money and turn into consumers of debt
instruments, which, in turn, may appear due to the same mortgage
institutes.

A mortgage crediting body with state capital to issue mortgage
securities should have been formed long ago.

Armenia also has to develop corporate securities. Relevant procedures
are under way. Specifically, the entry of the Scandinavian OMX
company to Armenia’s market is a direct way to integration of stock
exchanges and to real-rime entry to European and international
capital markets. This will allow Armenian issuers to attract funds on
foreign markets for developing their businesses, allowing investors
to have foreign securities circulate on Armenia’s capital market.

The banking sector must be engine of the other segments of the
financial sphere.

Armenia’s banking sector remains very small compared to those in many
other countries, which is accounted for by the underdevelopment of
other non-bank financial institutes, whereas Armenia is an undoubted
leader in the efficiency of bank management and banking supervision
in the post-Soviet area.

That is, everything necessary has been done for effective development
of the banking sector in Armenia. But time has shown that it is not
enough, as, being the center of the financial sector, the banking
sector is supposed not only to be supported by other financial
institutes, but also become an engine of the other segments of the
financial sphere.
The lack of these niches results in the banking sector’s further
insignificant role in the country’s economic development.

Therefore, it is most topical when a new Government led by the
Premier states the necessity for reforms of the second generation, as
it is only such reforms that can resolve the country’s current
economic problems. P.T. -0–

European Jewish Press, Belgium
Aug 23 2007

Ankara to foster strategy to counter ADL position on genocide of
Armenians

EJP Updated: 23/Aug/2007 18:01

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan might try to engage in
phone diplomacy "to convince the Jewish lobby in the US."

ANKARA (EJP)—The recognition of the World War I-era killings of
Armenians as genocide by the New York-based Anti-Defamation League
(ADL) has shocked Turkey, which is now trying to overcome this by
taking compensatory measures, the Turkish Daily News writes Thursday.

The ADL is an advocacy group aiming to stop the defamation of the
Jewish people.

Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul has told Israeli Ambassador Pinhas
Avivi that Turkey is "disappointed" over ADL’s remarks.

"We see this statement as an unfortunate one that is unjust to the
Holocaust, which has no precedent, and to its victims. And we expect
it to be corrected,’ the foreign ministry said.

The Israeli embassy has released a statement in which it said that
there is "no change" in the Israeli government’s stance regarding the
issue.

Experts and advisors to the Turkish government held a meeting with
diplomats at the foreign ministry in Ankara on Wednesday to determine
a strategy "that will win back the hearts of Jewish Americans,"
Turkey’s English daily said.

According to diplomatic sources, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan might try to engage in phone diplomacy to convince the Jewish
lobby.

`The strategy is to convince the ADL first, and if we cannot do that
then Turkey will try to counter the Jewish lobby in the U.S. This
cannot be a blank acceptance for Turkey,’ said a Turkish diplomat.

In a statement issued on Tuesday, the ADL’s director Abraham Foxman
said that the killings of Armenians by the Turks "were indeed
tantamount to genocide,’ days after the organisation fired a regional
director for taking the same stance.

`We were not expecting such a decision. Last week, they fired the
director who used [the term `genocide’]. What I understood is that
after the director was fired, a discussion started in the ADL. We
were in contact with the ADL two days ago,` said an expert on
American-Turkish relations quoted by The Turkish Daily News.

The decision might negatively influence Jewish votes in the US
Congress since there are more than 100 Jewish Americans in the House
of Representatives, the expert said.

`If they insist on defining the period as genocide, then Turkey will
take necessary steps against that. Of course we will not identify the
Turkish Jewish community with the American Jewish one. We will also
get in contact with Israel to understand the reasons behind the
decision,’ the source added.

Since the Jewish lobby is seen as an important political tool for
Turkey’s policies in Washington, Ankara avoids making non-diplomatic
statements in reference to the Jews.

Ankara fears that the US will recognize the events of 1915-1919 as
genocide, and is also concerned about its impact on bilateral
relations.