TURKEY STEPS UP TALKS WITH ARMENIA AS APRIL LOOMS
Journal of Turkish Weekly
Feb 18 2009
Turkey
ISTANBUL – Increased and open diplomatic traffic between Turkey
and Armenia has signaled that there are more efforts under way
for normalizing relations between the two countries, particularly
considering the fact that April 24, the day the White House
traditionally issues a statement on "Armenian Remembrance Day" is
approaching and, maybe even more importantly, the Armenian diaspora
has already started pressuring American politicians to bring a
"genocide resolution" to the floor of the US Congress.
Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan’s meetings with his Armenian
counterpart, Edward Nalbandian, are no longer held in secret. The two
have met six times on separate occasions since the soccer match held
between the national teams of the two countries on Sept. 6, 2008,
in Armenia.
After that historical event came Armenian Foreign Minister
Nalbandian’s visit to Ã~D°stanbul to attend a ministerial gathering
of the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) on
Nov. 24. Babacan and Nalbandian later met unofficially in Helsinki,
Zurich and, most recently, Munich.
"If Turkey and Armenia increase their meetings, it will be difficult
for third parties to interfere with the process," said Sedat Laciner,
head of the Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization
(ISRO/USAK), referring to the possibility of US recognition of the
Armenian "genocide" allegations due to campaign promises made by
President Barack Obama to Armenian-American voters.
Laciner added that Turkey was working toward a solution to its problems
with Armenia and that this is why it is trying to prevent efforts in
the United States that may block this process of reconciliation.
"The ultimate goals are the starting of diplomatic relations and the
opening of the border with Armenia," he told Sunday’s Zaman.
It is not so important whether or not US President Barack Obama
utters the word "genocide" in his statement on April 24 — the
day when Armenians commemorate the killings of Anatolian Armenians
perpetrated by the Ottoman Empire during World War I, which Armenians
claim constituted genocide. Rather, it is the climate that will
be created afterward that may be concerning, Laciner said, adding,
"Dialogue between Armenia and Turkey could break off."
There is also worry of a possible explosion of nationalist sentiment
in Turkey, as predicted by Today’s Zaman columnist Omer Taspinar,
if a House resolution is adopted.
TaspÃ~D±nar wrote in a Jan. 26 article that "In case the Armenian
genocide recognition resolution goes forward and Congress votes
in favor of it before March 29, things will go from bad to worse,"
considering the political calendar in Turkey, where local elections
will be held on March 29.
President Obama issued several statements during his election
campaign reiterating his intention to recognize the alleged Armenian
genocide. But some argue that running for office and running the
government are different things. Ã~D°lter Turkmen, a retired Turkish
ambassador and former foreign minister, said the Obama administration
would be hesitant to scratch old wounds in the history of Turks
and Armenians.
"The United States supports the improvement of relations between
Turkey and Armenia," he said.
However, the matter has gotten more complicated as observers note a
mounting sense of frustration in the US Congress related to Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, particularly following his walkout
at the recent Davos summit after an angry exchange with Israeli
President Shimon Peres over Israel’s deadly operation in Gaza
last month. "The level of resentment is particularly high among
the pro-Israel lobby. Some argue that Turkey has lost all its key
supporters in Washington and that the Armenian lobby has now a unique
window of opportunity to push its agenda," wrote Taspinar, who is
based in Washington.
Supporting this idea, former Turkish Ambassador to the US Faruk Logoglu
told Sunday’s Zaman that the Jewish lobby in the United States was
one of Turkey’s biggest trump cards. Still, he said, Turkey should
not be anxiously looking to make gestures prior to April 24. Instead,
it should spread its efforts to normalize relations with Armenia over
a period of time.
"We should get Washington’s backing first and then move forward with
the issue," he said, adding that, in the meantime, not only Ankara,
but also Yerevan should communicate to the US administration that
normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia carries high
importance for both sides and that dialogue is continuing toward
a solution.
Logoglu also said it is important for Ankara that Azerbaijan’s consent
has been obtained and that Russia has been informed about the process.
After all, Turkey closed its border with Armenia because of its
occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh in southwestern Azerbaijan in the
early 1990s. In a show of solidarity with Azerbaijan, Turkey also
severed its diplomatic ties with Yerevan.
Before his landmark meeting with Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan
in Davos late last month, Prime Minister ErdoÃ~DŸan had talks with
Azerbaijani President Ã~D°lham Aliyev. Indeed, Aliyev had held
talks with Sarksyan earlier in Davos concerning the two-decade-long
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which has uprooted hundreds of thousands
of people from both Armenia and Azerbaijan. "We will never leave
Azerbaijan alone concerning Nagorno-Karabakh. That is to say that our
issues are in a way connected with Azerbaijan," Erdogan said at Davos.
* "Efforts may soon yield positive results’
Suat Kiniklioglu, member of Parliament and deputy chairman of external
affairs for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), told
Sunday’s Zaman he is hopeful that a statement by the Turkish side
most likely at the beginning of April may pave the way for further
rapprochement with Armenia.
"I am not directly involved in the negotiations, but I hear that
there are only minor issues left to be settled between the sides. Both
Turkey and Armenia are serious in that regard," he said.
Asked if Armenia can be expected to take a step toward the solution
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, he said, "It is possible because
Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to negotiate over the issue."
Although last week Yerevan rejected a news report suggesting that
Armenia and Azerbaijan had reached a preliminary agreement on the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Turkey’s support, there are signs that
a solution may emerge soon.
Nalbandian has announced many times that negotiations over the
resolution of the conflict are being held in the context of the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group,
co-chaired by Russia, France and the United States.
Goran Lennmarker, OSCE Parliamentary Assembly special representative
on Nagorno-Karabakh, arrived in Baku on Feb. 12. The Trend news agency
reported that the purpose of his visit was to get familiarized with
the current situation of the negotiation process so a report could
be drafted prior to the winter session of the OSCE Parliamentary
Assembly on Feb. 19 and 20 in Vienna.
Lenmarker also said he has additional information regarding the
transfer of six regions to Azerbaijan and the establishment of a
temporary government in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Meanwhile, a delegation from the Turkish Parliament is expected to go
to the United States again in March. KÃ~D±nÃ~D±klà ~D±oÃ~DŸlu said
they will further explain to US officials that the Armenian diaspora
"does not care about the problems of Armenia" and are even "disturbed"
about the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia. In that context,
the Turkish Coalition of America recently sent a letter to President
Obama drawing his attention to the work of more than 30 scholars who
have refrained from applying the genocide label to the events of 1915
or whose work exposes parts of the traditional "
Armenian genocide" narrative as significantly flawed.