TURKEY-RUSSIA TIES: A STRATEGIC GAME?
By Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal
Kashmir Watch
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March 2 2009
As his first ever trip to Russia since becoming Turkish President,
Abdullah Gul paid a four-day visit to the Russian Federation
from February 12 to 15 and met the Russian leaders discussing
various diplomatic and economic matters. Russian Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin emphasized after his talks with the visiting Turkish
President that Turkey is "a priority in our Russian foreign policy"
and Russia and Turkey are set to forge strategic ties as foreign
policy priority.. On February 14, Abdullah Gul held talks with
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and adopted a joint declaration
after the talks to promote ties and enhance bilateral friendship
and partnership. In the declaration, announcing their commitment to
deepening mutual friendship and multi-dimensional cooperation, the two
Presidents urged action to take effective measures to settle frozen
conflicts that could destabilize the situation in the South Caucasus.
The Government of Prime Minister Recep Erdogan has shown increasing
impatience with not only Washington policies in the Middle East,
but also the refusal of the European Union to seriously consider
Turkey’s bid to join the EU. In the situation, it’s natural that
Turkey would seek some counterweight to what had been since the Cold
War overwhelming US influence in Turkish politics. Russia’s Putin and
Medvedev have no problem opening such a dialogue, much to Washington’s
dismay. Russia praised Turkey’s diplomatic initiatives in the region.
Following G�l’s visit, Medvedev will go to Turkey to follow up
the issues with concrete cooperation proposals. The Turkish-Russian
cooperation is a further indication of how the once overwhelming
US influence in Eurasia has been eroded by the events of recent US
foreign policy in the region. Meanwhile, NATO, as before, is busy
devising strategies to prevent strategic cooperation among the great
powers of Eurasia and keep the region under influence of the USA-led
western powers. Russia and Turkey are neighboring countries that are
developing their relations on the basis of mutual confidence. The
visits will in turn give a new character to their relations.
Rapprochement
As Russia’s natural geopolitical rival in the 19th Century Turkey was
considered by the Kremlin as a threat and new post-Soviet Russia also
felt uncomfortable because of Turkey’s quasi-alliance with Ukraine,
Azerbaijan, and Georgia until recently led Moscow to view Turkey
as a formidable rival. Emerging Turkey’s close relationship with
Central Asian states created a jerk in Moscow. The regional military
balance has developed in favor of Turkey in Black Sea and the Southern
Caucasus. As Russia and Ukraine argued over the division of the Black
Sea fleet and status of Sevastopol, the Black Sea became an area for
NATO’S Partnership for Peace exercises.
Now today, Russia is a major energy exporter to Turkey, pumping
natural gas across the Black Sea through the Blue Stream pipeline,
the largest Russian-Turkish energy project. As a major geopolitical
Great Game, Turkey and Russia are gradually moving closer to cooperate
on economic, strategic and other issues. Moscow and Ankara agreed
that energy was a strategic sphere in bilateral cooperation that had
potential for growth. They also vowed to move quicker in settling
issues related to bilateral defense cooperation. Setting aside
uneasy political issues of the past, Turkey and Russia are exploring
further rapprochement to improve sociopolitical and commercial ties,
to enhance the prospects for regional energy development projects and
to have a broad stabilizing effect, especially around their borders.
Even as the greatest game between the "cold war" adversaries USA and
Russia make every possible effort to outsmart one another globally
and regionally, Russia, for quite some time now, has been wooing
its neighbors for beneficial ties. As former empire lords, Russians
and Turks have lived side by side for centuries both collaborating
and confronting with one another. Following his stay in Moscow,
Gul traveled to Kazan, the capital of Russia’s predominantly Muslim
republic of Tatarstan, mainly consists of Muslim Tatar Turks, and
discussed joint investments.
Taking advantage of the cool relations between Washington and longtime
NATO ally, Turkey, Moscow invited Turkish President Abdullah Gul
to a four day state visit to discuss a wide array of economic and
political cooperation issues. Both Russia and Turkey, apart from
USA, try to influence the Central Asian states and pull them toward
themselves. Geographical proximity and an ethno-cultural background
provide a resource for both countries to forge closer ties with
the Central Asian republics. In the 1990’s in sharp contrast to the
tranquility of the Cold War era, talk of regional rivalries, revived
‘Great Games’ in Eurasia, confrontations in the Caucasus and Central
Asia were common. Russia does not want too many enemies around its
borders and cultivates economic and security ties with Turkey too to
restrict any geopolitical rival as in the 19th Century.
Both Turkey and Russia share substantial ethnic, linguistic and
cultural ties with Central Asia. The populations of Central Asian
countries are mostly Sunni Muslims, like those of Turkey. Russian
and Central Asian gas and oil need to be exported via Turkey to other
countries. From ordinary citizens to regional experts and political
authorities, all want dialogue and cooperation between the two
countries in order to improve prosperity, peace and stability in the
region. Medvedev commended Turkey’s actions during the Russian-Georgian
war last summer and Turkey’s subsequent proposal for the establishment
of a Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform (CSCP). The Russian
President said the Georgia crisis had shown their ability to deal with
such problems on their own without the involvement of outside powers,
meaning Washington. Turkey had proposed the CSCP, bypassing Washington
and not seeking transatlantic consensus on Russia. Since then, Turkey
has indicated its intent to follow a more independent foreign policy.
Cooperation in energy
As of now, Turkish-Russian economic ties have greatly expanded over
the past decade, with trade volume reaching $32 billion in 2008,
making Russia Turkey’s number one partner. Given this background,
bilateral economic ties were a major item on Gul’s agenda and both
leaders expressed their satisfaction with the growing commerce between
their countries.
Besides the oil and gas industry, Turkish companies benefit from
major investments in Russia and Central Asian countries, such as
the construction of airports and pipelines and operating hotels and
supermarkets. Russia’s economy is now reeling from the sharp fall in
oil prices, and its stock market is down 75 percent since last summer
as the world economy collapses into recession.
Cooperation in energy is the major area. Turkey’s gas and oil imports
from Russia account for most of the trade volume. Russian press reports
indicate that the two sides are interested in improving cooperation in
energy transportation lines carrying Russian gas to European markets
through Turkey, the project known as Blue Stream-2. Previously Ankara
had been cool to the proposal. The recent completion of the Russian
Blue Stream gas pipeline under Black Sea increased Turkey’s dependence
on Russian natural gas from 66 percent up to 80 percent. Furthermore,
Russia is beginning to see Turkey as a transit country for its energy
resources rather than simply an export market, the significance of
Blue Stream 2.
Russia is also eager to play a major part in Turkey’s attempts to
diversify its energy sources. A Russian-led consortium won the tender
for the construction of Turkey’s first nuclear plant recently, but as
the price offered for electricity was above world prices, the future
of the project, awaiting parliamentary approval, remains unclear. Prior
to Gul’s Moscow trip, the Russian consortium submitted a revised offer,
reducing the price by 30 percent. If this revision is found legal under
the tender rules, the positive mood during Gul’s trip may indicate
the Turkish government is ready to give the go-ahead for the project.
Russia’s market also plays a major role for Turkish overseas
investments and exports. Russia is one of the main customers for
Turkish construction firms and a major destination for Turkish
exports. Similarly, millions of Russian tourists bring significant
revenues to Turkey every year. Importantly, Turkey and Russia may
start to use the Turkish lira and the Russian ruble in foreign trade,
which could increase Turkish exports to Russia, as well as weakening
dependence on dollar mediation.
Russia strives for membership of WTO. In addition to opening to Turkey,
a vital transit route for natural gas to Western Europe, Russia is
also working to firm an economic space with Belarus and other former
Soviet republics to firm its alliances. Moscow delivered a major
blow to the US military encirclement strategy in Central Asia when
it succeeded earlier this month in convincing Kyrgyzstan, with the
help of major financial aid, to cancel US military airbase rights at
Manas, a major blow to US escalation plans in Afghanistan. In short,
Moscow is demonstrating it is far from out of the new Great Game for
influence over Eurasia.
The Russian aim is to use its economic resources to counter the
growing NATO encirclement, made severe by the Washington decision
to place missile and radar bases in Poland and the Czech Republic
aimed at Moscow. To date the Obama Administration has indicated it
will continue the Bush ‘missile defense’ policy. Washington also just
agreed to place US Patriot missiles in Poland, clearly not aimed at
Germany, but at Russia.
Post-Script: Warmer relations
As the post-Cold War tensions got reduced a relatively peaceful
atmosphere came into existence with countries with different
politico-economic philosophies forging beneficial ties across
the globe and the scene of Russo-Turkey relations is a case in
point. Russo-Turkey relations are marked by non-confrontations and
devoid of mutual mistrust. Ever since Russia became independent from
USSR in 1992, the Russian leaders began charting a foreign policy
with fewer conflicts across the world and that seems to have worked
positive for Moscow. The CIS, floated by Russia following the fallof
USSR, seen in Moscow as its traditional sphere of influence, became
one of the foreign policy priorities under Putin, as the EU and NATO
have grown to encompass much of Central Europe and, more recently,
the Baltic states.
The main message of Gul’s visit to Moscow in Feb 09 was for greater
energy coordination and the development of stronger political ties
between the two neighbors. Presidents Medvedev and Gul, as well as
Putin, repeated the position that, as the two major powers in the area,
cooperation between Russia and Turkey was essential to regional peace
and stability. That marked a dramatic change from the early 1990’s
after the collapse of the USSR when Washington encouraged Ankara to
move into historically Ottoman regions of the former Soviet Union
to counter Russia’s influence. The declaration signed mirrors a
previous ‘Joint Declaration on the Intensification of Friendship
and Multidimensional Partnership,’ signed during a 2004 visit by
then-President Putin.
Turkey, a rarest nation to openly slam, face to face, the Israeli
holocaust in Palestine when the entire Arab world was just watching the
genocides show on screen . Following Gul’s visit, some press in Turkey
described Turkish-Russian relations as a ‘strategic partnership,’
a label traditionally used for Turkish-American relations. Russia
elevated Gul’s trip from the previously announced status of an
‘official visit’ to a ‘state visit,’ the highest level of state
protocol, indicating the value Moscow now attaches to Turkey. There
seems to be shift in approaches. In previous years, Moscow was
convinced that Turkey was trying to establish Pan-Turanism in the
Caucasus and Central Asia and inside the Russian Federation, a huge
concern in Moscow . Today clearly Turkish relations with Turk entities
inside the Russian Federation are not considered suspicious as it
was once, confirming a new mood of mutual trust.
The short-term fluctuations in Russian-Turkish relations arise from
issues such as commercial land transit, customs regulations and the
use of the passageway of the Turkish Straits. Despite the problems
of the ruble and the weak oil price in recent months for the Russian
economy, the Russian Government is pursuing a very active foreign
policy strategy. Its elements focus on countering the continuing
NATO encirclement policy of Washington, with often clever diplomatic
initiatives on its Eurasian periphery.
The rapprochement between Turkey and Russia is to consolidate a
long period of peace and stability and to address their current
economic problems. This would, politically, improve the situation in
the conflict-ridden zones in the Caucasus. It may, in the long run,
further contribute to normalizing diplomatic relations between Turkey
and Armenia, Georgia and Russia, and especially to a Nagorno-Karabakh
settlement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Moscow also wishes to
increase its investments in the countries whose economies could be
reinforced by expanded trade with Turkey.
Turkey functions as a bridge between continents and cultures, not as
a barrier to the common good. The Turkish president’s visit should
be interpreted as expanding relations in the political, economic
and cultural fields rather than as a minor political gesture or
a shift in Turkish foreign policy. This rapprochement does not
threaten Turkey’s ties with the USA, Europe, and other countries in
the region or Turkey’s NATO membership. With the backing of the USA,
Ankara also expects Moscow’s influence as part of EU-Russia Permanent
Partnership over its EU bid, although Russia is still struggling to
obtain equal status with EU. The European Union is Russia’s largest
trading partner and the largest consumer of Russian energy, while
Russia is the largest energy supplier to the EU. As it stand now,
the Russo-Turkish relations are bound to flourish further.
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