Author: Khoyetsian Rose

EXCESSIVE AMBITIONS ARE COMPLICATING CRISIS MANAGEMENT EFFORTS

Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Feb 5 2009
Russia

Despite the dwindling reserves and economic recession, the country
is still littering the world with dollars.

The latest reports of Moscow’s extraordinarily generosity towards
its permanent and temporary allies suggest the country is unaware
of the onset of hard times from the economic standpoint and of the
need to reconsider excessive geopolitical ambitions rather than
cultivating them.

The creation of a collective fund of $10 billion within the framework
of the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC) was announced yesterday. Most
of the money will be contributed by Russia and Kazakhstan during
the first phase. The money will be used to alleviate the effects of
the crisis in five countries belonging to this organization. There
were reports a day earlier that Russia was ready to extend a loan
of tens of billions of roubles to Belarus in exchange for the move
to settlements in Russian roubles. This was in addition to the loan
of $2 billion which had already been approved, with half of the
money already released to Minsk, and in addition to an estimated
$5 billion a year in hidden subsidies. The allocation of an amount
ranging from half a billion dollars to 1 billion to Armenia is also
being negotiated. Raul Castro, the new Cuban leader, left Moscow
a few days ago with a line of credit for $175 million. Meanwhile,
Havana has no plans to pay the debts that have been accumulating
since the Soviet era and now exceed $20 billion.

The apotheosis of this extravagance could be the decision, announced
on Tuesday, to give Kyrgyzstan a loan of $2 billion and $150 million
in nonrefundable aid. For the sake of comparison, the entire budget
of this small mountain country is just over $1.1 billion. In
exchange, President Kurmanbek Bakiyev of Kyrgyzstan promised to
close the American military base in Manas, through which the United
States delivers supplies to its contingent fighting the Taleban and
Al-Qa’idah in Afghanistan. This expensive exchange is dubious from
the economic and geopolitical standpoints. If the Americans and their
allies suddenly leave Afghanistan, Moscow might have to restrain the
radical Islamists in that region again.

Even expenditures of that size on allies might be justified in some way
if it were not for the financial crisis, which has drastically reduced
Russia’s own economic potential. Now this money is needed within
the country. The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade expects
a decrease of 0.2 per cent in the GNP. The country is in danger of
dropping out of the top 10 economies in terms of dollars. The exchange
rate of the rouble to the dollar was more than 1.5 times the present
figure in July, and gold-backed currency reserves have decreased by
more than one-third. The federal budget for this year will be adjusted
in line with an income projection of only 6.5 trillion roubles instead
of the 10,927 trillion in the current budget. The plans for spending
cuts are still unknown, but the projected expenditures in the current
budget amount to 9.024 trillion roubles. The number of unemployed
might also double and exceed 10 million.

Even the United States, with the largest economy in the world,
is tempering its geopolitical ambitions in the atmosphere of
crisis. Barack Obama has announced the reduction of the contingent
in Iraq and is urging Russia to reduce the nuclear potential of our
country by 80 per cent. Moscow, on the other hand, is eager to take
advantage of the crisis to strengthen our position in the world and to
restore and maintain our status as a great power instead of thinking
of ways to solve its own socioeconomic problems. Furthermore, price
is no object. In this sense, Russia is similar in some respects to
the almost penniless Countess de Beauvilliers in Emile Zola’s novel
"Money," who was willing to limit her daily diet to nothing but bread
as long as she did not have to reduce her lavish banquet menu by a
single dish, all for the sake of maintaining her image as a prosperous
aristocrat. The sooner Russia gives up the great-power ambitions that
are so inconsistent with the present state of its economy, the less the
country, its population, and the physical production sector will have
lost when the crisis is over. It would be regrettable if Russia were
to make the same mistake as the USSR, wasting all of its resources on
global confrontation with the West and trying to maintain its status
as the world’s second superpower at any cost, to the point of the
complete collapse of the economy and the disintegration of the country.

SERZH SARGSYAN: SOUTH CAUCASIAN REGION’S WAY OF FUTURE IS WAY OF COMBINING CURRENT INTERESTS

Noyan Tapan

Feb 9, 2009

MUNICH, FEBRUARY 9, NOYAN TAPAN. RA President Serzh Sargsyan, who
was in Munich to take part in the 45th International Conference on
Security Policy, made a speech on February 7 at the conference, which,
in particular, read:

"Armenia is one of those countries, a state that believes the
values of liberty, peace, and cooperation. We believe that only
regional cooperation and dialogue can make possible our common
vision, strengthening of a peaceful and stable region. Our region’s
leaders often announce their striving for peace, cooperation, and
stability. All that is possible if the interests of all states and
organizations having an exact and certain role in the region are not
opposed, but combined in the South Caucasus. Modern South Caucasus
is the model of world multipolarism. It is one of the regions, where
there are obstacles seeming insuperable, where states’ internationally
known political map differs from reality, where stability is too
vulnerable and reestablishment of peace requires huge joint and
purposeful work. The way of region’s future is the way of combining the
current interests, all other ways are fraught with new losses. I think
today there are leaders in the region, who are ready to bring forward
non-standard solutions, who can make decisions beyond stereotypes and
show sufficient political will for carrying them out. And it gives
me a ground to be more optimistic towards our region’s future."

PROBE REVEALS ERGENEKON’S INFORMATION WARFARE SITES

Today’s Zaman
o?load=detay&link=166027&bolum=101
Feb 5 2009
Turkey

Lt. Col. Mustafa Dönmez, who surrendered to military authorities after
being a fugitive for several days in connection with the Ergenekon
investigation, was arrested by a civilian court yesterday.

A large number of professional Web sites offering nationalist content
and pseudo-scientific research about Armenian genocide allegations,
Turkey’s Kurdish population and Greece and Turkey’s religious citizens
that have been on the Internet for a long time have been found to be
operated by Ergenekon, a clandestine terrorist organization charged
with attempting to overthrow the government.

These Web sites, which are updated frequently in both Turkish and
English, feature extremely nationalist propaganda against Greeks, Kurds
and Armenians, as well as Turkey’s own Muslim segments. They have been
around for some time, standing out with their professional-looking
content and design; however, these sites, rich with information,
videos, photographs and documents, have never offered any contact
information. So who updates these sites that vehemently propagate
official ideology on a number of issues and sometimes include
information considered highly confidential? Last months raids in the
Ergenekon investigation have now provided the answer to this question,
thanks to IT expert Huseyin Ataman Yıldırım, who was also detained
as part of the investigation. Ataman, who was also the spokesperson
for the Biz Kac KiÅ~_iyiz (How Many of Us?) movement, is a former
naval officer. He is also the owner of the Ä°stanbul-based software
company Naryaz.

Ataman is also the administrator of the Web site 4000ler.trnet.com,
which has retired and on-duty military officers as members. One
of the members is Adm. Feyyaz Ogutcu, who, according to a National
Intelligence Organi-zation (MÄ°T) document, was one of the founders
of the Karargah Houses, which the Ergenekon investigation revealed
were meeting spots for army generals plotting a coup d’etat as well
as homes to hide hit men and ammunition.

The Ergenekon investigation recently revealed that 35 Internet domains
with similar content and design were registered with the same company.

The sites seem to have been trying to foment public opinion
in line with the goals of the Ergenekon organization. The
sites include , apopkk.com,
armenianreality.com, cameria.org, gencizbiz.net, genclik.info,
gnkur.net, greekmurderers.net, irtica.net, irtica.org, naksilik.com,
nursi.info, pkkapo.com, pkkgercegi.com, terorveguvenlik.net,
turkatak.com and turkeyturks.com.

List of Ergenekon leaders to remain confidential

Meanwhile, judges of the 13th Higher Criminal Court, which is hearing
the trial against Ergenekon, ruled on Wednesday to withhold the names
included in an organizational chart of the terrorist organization.

The organizational chart, drafted in 2001 by the MÄ°T, was submitted
by the MÄ°T to the court last year. The chart, which was published
last year by the Sabah daily, did not reveal the identity of the
ultimate leader of the group, but established the alleged roles of
most of the organization’s suspected members.

The court announced on Wednesday that the names on the Ergenekon
chart would not be revealed in order to protect the right to privacy
of those individuals who are named on the chart, but who are not yet
facing any criminal investigation.

The court noted that the people whose identities have not yet been
revealed have not made any statements about the persons who are
suspects in the case. It also noted that no charges have been filed
against any of the suspects based on the contents of the organizational
chart in question. The reputation and rights of the individuals whose
names have been hidden on the chart and whom the prosecution has not
felt the need to bring charges against so far should be protected
under Article 187 of the Code on Criminal Procedures (CMK), the court
stated, adding that withholding an uncensored version of the original
copy of the MÄ°T chart would not hinder the ongoing trial in any way.

Tolon to stay at GATA for 3 months

Meanwhile, news reports said Gen. HurÅ~_it Tolon, who was arrested
last year for suspected links to Ergenekon and was taken to the Gulhane
Military Medical Academy (GATA) in Ä°stanbul in January due to health
problems, will be hospitalized at GATA for at least three months for
purposes of diagnosis.

Reports said during these three months doctors will investigate the
reason for Tolon’s constant dehydration.

Ertekin completes defense statement

Defendant Hayrettin Ertekin presented his defense testimony to the
Ä°stanbul 13th Higher Criminal Court on Wednesday at the 47th hearing
of the Ergenekon trial, which started in October last year. Ertekin
is being charged with publishing propaganda on various Internet sites,
newspapers and television stations owned by his press group, Enternet.

Ertekin said Enternet was not his own personal company, stressing that
he was only a partner in the company, which is based in Bulgaria. He
said he wrote monthly strategy columns published online. He also
argued that none of his research or articles published on the Internet
contain ideas that could incite people to hostility or enmity. He
said his columns were mostly about strategy issues concerning his
commercial company or writings expressing his nationalist beliefs.

Words that go beyond what was meant

Defending a phone conversation he had with an army corps commander
in which he said Diyarbakır Mayor Osman Baydemir "should be shot
with a bullet in the head," Ertekin said he had been deeply saddened
at the time by an explosion in the southeastern city that killed
eight people. Stressing that his words went beyond their meaning,
he explained: "This does not mean going there and shooting him in the
head. This was an emotion I felt after the incident. It was said for
that moment. I apologize before the court. I am ashamed for having
uttered those words."

He also explained an e-mail message in which he had written, "The
best Kurd is a dead Kurd," saying, "I had sent that off to a lawyer
friend to establish whether it constituted a crime or not."

In response to the charge that he did not inform the authorities about
the location of fugitive Emre Gulaltay, the brother of Semih Tufan
Gulaltay, who was convicted of attempting to assassinate a former
Human Rights Association (Ä°HD) president, he said he had met him in
China and had no idea that there was a warrant out for his arrest.

In response to the charge of having acquired a list of telephone
numbers belonging to individuals who are members of the Turkish Armed
Forces (TSK), Ertekin said it was only natural that, as a businessman
who had acted as a consultant to the late President Turgut Ozal and
his family, he would have the phone number of generals in his home.

Ersöz recording reveals 367 crisis scheme

Meanwhile, the Yeni Å~^afak daily reported that a scandalous voice
recording of a conversation with former Chief of General Staff
Gen. İsmail Hakkı Karadayı in 2007 that went public late last month
was found during a search in the home of retired Gen. Levent Ersöz,
who was arrested as an Ergenekon suspect in January after being on
the run abroad for half a year.

The voice recording of Karadayı, which was played on Turkish
television stations last month, revealed that Karadayı had asked
former Motherland Party (ANAVATAN) leader Erkan Mumcu to not attend
a presidential vote in Parliament in 2007, thereby ensuring the
cancellation of the presidential elections to block the Justice and
Development Party (AK Party) candidate from being elected.

Mumcu did not attend the presidential election in Parliament along
with other opposition parties, which led to the cancellation of the
vote by the Constitutional Court on the grounds that the quorum to
hold a presidential vote had not been met. After the tape was released
last week, Mumcu denied that his refusal to attend the voting session
had been influenced by Karadayı or anyone else.
–Boundary_(ID_mBW1HZOFiKj66Ew3SFcY2w)–

ANC COORDINATOR: PACE RESOLUTION N 1643 CREATES A BASIS FOR RESTORING DEMOCRATIC VALUES

Noyan Tapan

Feb 3, 2009

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 3, NOYAN TAPAN. PACE Resolution N 1643 adopted at
the January session and the report attached to it are not so bad
and create a basis to restore democratic values. Levon Zurabian,
the Coordinator of the Armenian National Congress, expressed such
an opinion at the February 3 press conference adding that the above
mentioned resolution is a more serious document than previous PACE
resolutions, as the Assembly has received a written promise from the
Armenian authorities on solving country’s domestic problems in the
near future. However, according to L. Zurabian, in the very respect
Resolution N 1643 can be considered a retreat, as the RA authorities
never fulfill their written and oral promises.

"The authorities just make a deception," the ANC Coordinator said
adding that the decision to grant amnesty to 16 arrested people,
only 2 out of which were on political prisoners’ list, was also a
deception. According to L. Zurabian, 14 of those being granted amnesty
"robbed shops and set cars on fire." And, according to him, the thing
that surprised him was that the deception gave a result desirable
for the RA authorities during the PACE session: no sanctions were used.

He considered it strange that PACE Co-rapporteurs on Armenia John
Prescott and George Colombier have not agreed to meet with the
ANC leadership from December 17 up to the present to discuss the
process of resolutions’ fulfillment and country’s home political
situation. According to L. Zurabian, the radical opposition is
concerned with it because the Co-rapporteurs have started to reject
meetings systematically.

L. Zurabian also touched upon the issue of amending RA Criminal Code
Articles 225 and 300 stressing that not amending them but putting
an end to "that invented tale" is important. "Resolution N 1643 more
than exactly writes that the accusations on seizing the power brought
to the political prisoners have not been proved," he said.

SCTO QUICK REACTION COALITION FORCES TO BE ESTABLISHED

armradio.am
04.02.2009 17:52

The extraordinary sitting of the Collective Security Council of the
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) was held in Moscow today
chaired by the President of the Republic of Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan.

Following the meeting of the Heads of State the sitting continued
in an extended format, featuring the National Security Secretaries,
the Ministers of Defense and Foreign Affairs.

In compliance with the agreements reached during the non-official
summit in Kazakhstan in December 2008, the Heads of State discussed
and signed the decision of creating quick reaction coalition
forces. Presenting the decision, President Serzh Sargsyan described it
as an important step "targeted at strengthening the military component
of the Organization."

The CSTO Secretary General and the Joint Command of the Organization
were instructed to work out a package of normative acts deriving
from the decision on the creation of quick reaction coalition forces
and present it to the consideration of the statutory bodies within
three months.

Participants of the extraordinary sitting also discussed the place
and time of the next sitting and decided to hold it in Moscow in June
2009. The budget for 2009 was also determined.

During the sitting of the Collective Security Council Nikolay Bordyuzha
was reelected to the post of CSTO Secretary General.

0AFollowing a working dinner, the Heads of State participated in the
special sitting of the Interstate council of the Eurasian Economic
Community (EurAsEC). Issues of establishing a joint anti-crisis fund
and center of high technologies were discussed.

ARMENIA TO FACE MAJOR CHALLENGES IN COLLECTING TAXES IN 2009

ARKA
Feb 4, 2009

YEREVAN, February 4. /ARKA/. Armenia is going to face major challenges
in collecting taxes this year, RA Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan said
today, hearing Armenian ministries’ reports on 2008 results.

"We are quite aware that 2009 is going to be the toughest year for
us, with the global crisis changing the situation and causing major
hurdles in tax collection," the premier said, adding the government
must stick to its tax collection program.

Sargsyan pointed out difficulties in executing reforms in the current
harsh situation.

"Reforms are better carried out in more prosperous times," Sargsyan
said, adding the strained economic situation hinders execution
of reforms.

The only hope is that the Chairman of the RA State Revenue Committee
shares the prime minister’s concerns and is well aware of oversights
is the committee’s work.

"Without other agencies’ help, the State Revenue Committee will
not be able to shoulder the heavy burden," the prime minister said,
stressing the need for joint efforts to weather the crisis.

According to Armenia’s 2009 budget, receipts and expenditures are
to total 905.4bln drams and 945.4bln drams respectively, with the
deficit amounting to 40bln drams.

Tax proceeds are expected to reach 727.5bln drams. The fixed dollar
exchange rate is 303.69 drams per $1.

In 2008, tax proceeds totaled 598.8bln drams. ($1 – 305.19 drams).

RAFFI HOVANNISIAN: OPPOSITION AND AUTHORITIES SHOULD START DIALOG BASED ON NEW AGREEMENTS AND WITHOUT PRECONDITIONS

Noyan Tapan

Feb 2, 2009

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 2, NOYAN TAPAN. One of the issues to discussed by
the Board of Heritage party during the February 21 sitting will be
the participation of the party’s representative as a member of the
Armenian delegation in the PACE. The founding chairman of the party,
National Assembly deputy Raffi Hovannisian, who has boycotted the
last two plenary sessions of the PACE, said this in response to NT
correspondent’s question.

He noted that personally, he considers it necessary that Heritage
continue taking an active part in the work of the PACE.

He expressed conviction that first of all Armenia should pursue its
national interests and solve its problems in line with democratic
standards, while the Council of Europe should be able to apply its
values and principles with respect to all its member states. "We
need this all-embracing state approach so that our delegates, the
representatives of our society will not face a situation when one
group – official delegates go to convince, request, beg not to apply
sanctions against Armenia, whereas another section of the society goes
to say why Armenia deserves this punishment," R. Hovannisian said. In
his opinion, on one hand, it is a manifestation of normal democracy,
on the other hand "it speaks of our national failure".

In the words of R. Hovannisian, the authorities and opposition,
the first and the third presidents of the country, the members of
the political coalition should "start an urgent national dialog,
having such issues on the agenda as the issue of mutual pardon and
the problem of Armenia’s legal-political, socioeconomic and national
prospects". He said that it is necessary to start this dialog based
on new agreements and without preconditions.

As regards the possibility of Heritage’s giving up its mandate at
the RA National Assembly, R. Hovannisian said that this issue will
be dicussed at the same sitting, but, judging from the general mood,
Heritage is likely "to remain faithful to its participatory policy".

FRANCE TELECOM TO LAUNCH ARMENIA ACTIVITIES IN AUTUMN 2009

PanARMENIAN.Net
31.01.2009 21:36 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Mr. Serzh Sargsyan, the President of Armenia,
met with Mr. Didier Lombard, France Telecom’s Chairman and Chief
Executive Officer on the margins of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Briefing on France Telecom’s strategy in the Armenian market,
Mr. Lombard assured that the company’s services will be in demand
and announced autumn 2009 as start of activities in the republic,
the RA leader’s press office reported.

Hürriyet, Turkey
Jan 31 2009

Bridging the gap between academia, media & power

ISTANBUL – There is a relationship between the decision-making
process, academia, civil society and the media, says Sylvia Tiryaki,
but the question is about how this chain can be more functional. The
GPOT Center has been established to deal with this question, she says.

As a new think tank in Turkey, The Global Political Trend Center, or
GPOT, aims to bridge the gap between decision makers and academia,
according to its deputy director, Dr. Sylvia Tiryaki.

"Due to lack of time, policymakers sometimes follow international
politics in view of micro-trends," Tiryaki told the Hürriyet
Daily News & Economic Review in an interview last week. "Moreover, the
decision-making process is so battered by regional and bilateral
problems, such a micro-outlook generally results in the loss of global
tendencies from sight."

There is a relationship between the decision-making process, academia,
civil society and the media, she added, but the question is about how
this chain can be more functional.

The GPOT Center has been formed to answer this crucial question. The
center, established as a research unit under the auspices of Istanbul
Kültür University last year, seeks to produce innovative
and distinctive policy recommendations by analyzing contemporary
trends in regional and global politics. Another objective is to
provide a platform to examine the reflections of certain global
formations in international politics.

The recent shift in Turkish foreign policy, as exemplified during
Israel’s assault on Gaza, is also on GPOT’s agenda. While the center
studies Turkey’s position and its role within current global trends,
it also tries to conclude how Turkey should respond to those trends in
a rational way.

The GPOT has been involved in several projects, including the Forum
for the Future, projects that monitor recent developments on the
Cyprus issue, the discussion of Turkish-Armenian relations,
second-track diplomacy between Israel and Syria and Turkish-Arab
dialogue.

"We have two ongoing projects on Turkish-Armenian ties," Tiryaki
said. "First, we focus on the bias in the media, prejudices and
misunderstandings in both countries. We are trying to find out the
media’s negative or positive impacts on uneasy bilateral relations. On
Armenian claims of genocide, we also initiated a workshop with leading
lawmakers on the legal limits of such claims."

While Turkey’s near abroad has been gripped by bloodshed, the GPOT
Center has worked together with academics, researchers and experts
from the Middle East, analyzing not just Turkey’s relations with the
Arab world but also the internal contradictions of the region. For its
part, the center seeks to hold annual meetings under the name
"Turkish-Arab Forum," in cooperation with the Ibn-Khaldun Center for
Development Studies in Cairo, Egypt and the Center for Arab Unity
Studies and Arab Democracy Foundation in Beirut, Lebanon.

‘Misperceptions on both sides’
"As a Western-oriented country, Turkey attracts attention from Arab
nations. But there are misperceptions on both sides," Tiryaki said.

"With the support of our partner organizations in the Middle East, we
try to discover where misunderstandings still prevail. We also have a
political project called ‘Democratization of Middle East,’ prepared by
researchers in the region." Despite a temporary slowdown in Turkey’s
journey into the European Union, the GPOT Center strives to win over
the Europeans "who are very curious about Turkey’s political
strategy."

"Foreigners want to know what is causing the recent shift in Turkish
foreign policy, which is now more proactive and has an mediating
role," she said. The GPOT Center is also preparing to publish four
books dealing with Cyprus and the history of Turkish-Israeli
relations. It has already published briefs on Gaza and northern Iraq.

Interfax, Russia
Jan 30 2009

Azeri defense minister flies to Moscow for talks with Russian counterpart

BAKU Jan 30

Azeri Defense Minister Safar Abiyev left on Friday on a working visit
to Moscow, the Azeri Defense Ministry’s press service said.

Abiyev will meet with Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, the
press service said.

It is expected that the parties will discuss bilateral cooperation in
the defense sphere. The Azeri minister will also raise the issue of
the reported Russian arms and military equipment deliveries for last
year worth $800 million to Armenia.