THE TURKISH DILEMMA; CHURCH AND STATE ARE SEPARATE IN TURKEY. SOME WILL FIGHT TO KEEP IT THAT WAY. OTHERS WANT A MORE INTRUSIVE ISLAM. TODAY’S ELECTION IS ABOUT THAT – AND A LOT MORE
By Matthew Fisher, Canwest News Service
The Gazette (Montreal)
July 22, 2007 Sunday
Final Edition
Turks voting in today’s parliamentary elections are focused on issues
such as how to keep the vibrant economy racing ahead, preventing the
rise of Kurdish power in northern Iraq from spilling over into Turkey’s
Kurdish areas, and whether to continue trying to win membership of
the European Union.
But the most emotive issue by far is whether this country of 70
million, which forms a bridge between the Middle East and Europe,
should remain secular and Western-oriented, as it has been since Kemal
Ataturk founded the republic on the ruins of the Ottoman Empire more
than 80 years ago, or draw closer to its Islamic roots.
And if Turkey decides to turn toward Islam, will the staunchly secular
Turkish military launch another coup?
Didem Mercan plans to vote for the Republican People’s Party, which
was founded by Ataturk, because she fears the Islamist connections
of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).
She worries that, if the AKP wins a second majority in parliament,
it could force women to wear headscarves. Clad in blue jeans and
a summery blouse, her fingernails painted bright red, the 23-year
old communications student is a walking advertisement for her belief
"religion should have no place in my personal life, and I am prepared
to fight for that right."
Mesut Topcu, on the other hand, said he intends to vote for the AKP
because, since it won power in November 2002, the authorities have
stopped hassling men in the deeply conservative Istanbul suburb of
Fatih about wearing the skullcaps, baggy trousers and long beards of
pious Muslims.
Topcu, an electrical engineer, was unequivocal about the value of
headscarves, which remain banned in schools and government offices
but are commonly worn by women in Fatih, as are black, Iranian-style
full-body chadors. "I am sad for a woman who does not cover herself.
She will go to hell on judgment day."
The public expression of such sharp differences in opinion is
relatively new in Turkey, but the debate is actually many centuries
old.
The country’s population is about 98 per cent Muslim, but its history
has been profoundly influenced by geography. In the northwest and
northeast, Turkey is bordered by Christian Greece, Bulgaria, Georgia
and Armenia, while in the east and south, it sits alongside Muslim
Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq and Syria. It is also the only Muslim nation
in NATO.
Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city with a population of 12 million, has
always felt the pull of east and west particularly keenly. Famously
divided by the Bosphorus Strait into European and Asian parts,
Constantinople, as it was called until 77 years ago, is home to
spectacular mosques and minarets as well as the Orthodox Church’s
oldest patriarchate.
Although he was Muslim, Ataturk replaced sharia law with a Swiss-style
legal system. Women were given the vote, veils were banned, drinking
alcohol was permitted and Latin script replaced Arabic letters.
Many secularists are convinced some of those fundamental changes are
now at risk if the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
wins another parliamentary majority.
"They are really Islamists and we believe that they wear a mask right
now, trying to pretend that they aren’t," said architect Eliz Ofil,
25, sitting in a smart cafE, watching huge tankers and freighters from
Russia, Kazakhstan, Iran and many other countries gingerly navigate
the narrow Bosphorus artery between the Mediterranean and Black seas.
Metres away, Egeman Bargis, an AKP deputy and Erdogan’s chief foreign
policy adviser, did not hide his contempt for such views.
"That’s bullshit," he said.
"This is not a difference of opinion between Islamists and
secularists. It is a difference of opinion between those who want
more democracy or less. The opposition has tried at every chance to
create tension."
Kemal Giloglu, a Republican People’s Party campaign manager, said
this election may be the most important ever. He warned of "creeping
Islamization" if the AKP wins again. Indeed, the future of a church and
a synagogue near his house is in danger because of what he describes
as his opponent’s lack of respect for Turkey’s history of religious
co-existence.
Although some of the AKP’s most prominent members have Islamist ties,
the party has not spoken much about religion since it emerged as a
grassroots movement a few years ago. It has positioned itself on the
centre-right and concentrated, with considerable success, on pursuing
internationalist economic policies.
Turkey’s GDP has risen more than seven per cent per year since 2003,
per-capita income has more than doubled, and inflation has been
reduced to single digits for the first time in decades.
But the AKP crossed a line with the military when it proposed foreign
minister Abdullah Gul, a practising Muslim whose wife covers her
head, as its choice for president. In what was dubbed an e-coup,
the military derailed the plan last April by posting on its website
a warning about a "growing threat" to Turkey’s secular practices.
Erdogan’s response, however, was to seek a new mandate by calling
early parliamentary elections.
There are indications the military may have misjudged the public
mood, or perhaps didn’t care what it was. Polls suggest the AKP’s
share of the vote will increase to more than 40 per cent from 34,
largely because of a backlash against the military’s stance.
Paradoxically, though, although the prime minister’s party is more
popular than ever in religiously conservative rural areas, and is
gaining support in urban areas because of its economic policies,
the AKP may actually win fewer seats. That’s because of an awkward
electoral system that only allows parties with more than 10 per cent
of the vote to have representation in the 550-seat parliament.
The AKP and Republican People’s Party were the only two that met the
10 per cent threshold in 2001, with the AKP winning 364 seats. This
time a third party, the secular Nationalist Movement, also is likely
to get more than 10 per cent of the vote, and a number of independent
Kurdish candidates could win seats, cutting the AKP’s strength by at
least several dozen seats.
This makes it unlikely Erdogan’s next government will be able to get
the two-thirds majority required to introduce direct elections for the
presidency. But, in a game of brinkmanship, it will probably have the
numbers needed to get its presidential candidate elected by parliament.
Either way, there’s a strong possibility of a military veto or a coup
by the generals to block Gul from the presidency.
Asked about the generals’ likely reaction, the prime minister’s senior
adviser replied angrily:
"Just like you can’t be half-pregnant, you can’t be half-democratic.
Either we have a democracy, where the will of the people prevails,
or we don’t."