Author: Khondkarian Raffi

ANOTHER TRAIN WITH COMBAT MATERIEL LEAVES GEORGIA FOR RUSSIA
Interfax News Agency
Russia & CIS Military Newswire
June 6, 2006 Tuesday
Another train, carrying Russian arms and materiel being withdrawn
from Georgia, left the Georgian Tsalka railway station on Tuesday,
Deputy Commander of the Russian Task Force in Transcaucasia Colonel
Vladimir Kuparadze told Interfax-Military News Agency.
“The train, carrying ten T-72 MBTs, spare parts and other equipment,
belonging to the Russian 62nd military base, deployed in Akhalkalaki,
went through the customs on Monday, and left for Russia at 9 a.m.
Moscow time (0500 hours GMT) on Tuesday,” Kuparadze said.
“The train will go through Azerbaijan, which has signed an agreement
on transits of Russian military cargo with Russia,” he added.
Kuparadze said that it was the sixth train, loaded with military
hardware, to leave Georgia. Three other trains, carrying hardware of
the 62nd base left for Russia earlier, and two more trains, loaded
with materiel of the 12th base, left Batumi for Armenia to equip the
Russian 102nd base.
He also pointed out that a convoy of 20 wheeled vehicles would leave
Akhalkalaki for Armenian Gyumri on Thursday to equip the 102nd base.
“In addition to that, 40 other wheeled vehicles would be sent to
Gyumri from Batumi by train,” Kuparadze said.
Russian military bases are to be withdrawn from Georgia by 2008.

ANDRANIK MARGARIAN: THERE ARE NO GREAT EXPECTATIONS FROM BUCHAREST MEETING OF PRESIDENTS OF ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN
Noyan Tapan
Armenians Today
June 05 2006
YEREVAN, JUNE 5, NOYAN TAPAN – ARMENIANS TODAY. There are no great
expectations from the June 4-6 Bucharest meetings between RA President
Robert Kocharian and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on settlement
of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict as responses of the Azerbaijani
side do not shape well that a great progress will be. RA Prime
Minister Andranik Margarian stated about it responding journalists’
questions at the RA NA on June 5. He considered probable that no
regress will be fixed in the issue of the Nagorno Karabakh problem,
and one will see in future if a progress will be or not. Touching upon
the inner-political issues, the Prime Minister excluded possibility
of straining of the inner-political situation. As for the issue that
the Republican Party of Armenia has undertaken at present both Prime
Minister’s and NA Speaker’s posts, according to the Prime Minister,
the party does not aviod responsibility as it has entered the policy
and went to the elections with a definite program, therefore it
realizes the load of undertaken responsibility and is ready for
it. The issue of participation in the 2007 parliamentary elections
with the alliance or separatly will be defined by the RPA Council not
earlier than in February-March of coming year. According to Andranik
Margarian, the RPA rows are being refreshed at present. There were
dischargements of some members as a result of registration, and
a part left the party itself what is provided by the fact that a
part of members left Armenia or joined other parties. As for keeping
normal relations with opposing figures, including future development
of relations with Artur Baghdasarian, the head of the “Orinats Yerkir”
(Country of Law) party after the party’s joining the opposition field,
they “were warm” and, in the Prime Minister’s opinion, “will continue
in this way.” As for statements and accusations expressed in address
of representatives of the “Orinats Yerkir” and “Azagyin Miabanutiun”
(National Unity) factions during the last statements at the NA, the
Prime Minister mentioned that “he estimates that quality badly as
one may not decrease a debate at the NA to such a level, to injure
each other.” According to him, it is excluded at the Government.

AZERI-TURKISH ORGANIZATIONS OF WORLD COUNTRIES TO MEET IN ANTALIA
Author: R.Abdullayev
TREND, Azerbaijan
June 5 2006
A meeting of the Azerbaijani-Turkish organization functioning in
different world countries will start its work in Antalia, Turkey, on
Tuesday (6 June), Trend reports. Over 200 delegates from 30 countries
will participate in the forum.
The participants in the event will discuss joint measures targeting
the prevention of the spread of policy on the so-called ‘Armenian
genocide’ in Osman Empire. “The event is a next evidence testifying
for the expansion of the relationships between Azerbaijan and Turkey,”
the Turkish television channel TRT reported.
A world forum of the Azerbaijani intelligentsia started in the Turkish
report city Antalia on 5 June.

June 2, 2006, 9:43AM
Turkey Loads 1st Oil From Caspian Pipeline
By SELCAN HACAOGLU Associated Press Writer
ANKARA, Turkey Authorities at a Turkish Mediterranean oil port on
Friday loaded the first shipment of Caspian Sea oil from a newly built
pipeline onto a tanker for Western markets.
The shipment from Ceyhan, a Turkish port on the Mediterranean Sea,
marks a crucial step in completing a project designed to create
alternative oil routes to ease the West’s dependence on Middle East
crude. The pipeline starts in Baku, Azerbaijan, runs through Tbilisi,
Georgia, and then travels southwest through Turkey to Ceyhan.
Although it included oil from the Caspian pipeline, the bulk of the
shipment was already stored at Ceyhan after having been brought in by
tanker to test new storage tanks at the site several months ago, oil
officials said. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were
not authorized to speak to the media.
The loading of some 600,000 barrels of Caspian crude onto The British
Hawtharne began at 4:17 p.m. and was expected to take at least 12
hours. The shipment was destined for the northwestern Italian port of
Savona, officials said.
The recently completed 1,100-mile pipeline, conceived in the mid-1990s
and launched in 2002, is intended to tie the oil-rich newly
independent former Soviet nations to the West and reduce the influence
of Russia and Iran. U.S. officials insisted that the pipeline be built
through Turkey, bypassing the Middle East and Russia. The project cost
some $4 billion.
The Caspian Sea fields are estimated to hold the world’s third-largest
reserves, bypassing Russia and Iran.
Ceyhan is also the end point of a pipeline running from neighboring
Iraq, and Turkey built a new terminal and storage tanks to ship Azeri
oil.
At Ceyhan, the new oil terminal is expected to begin pumping 1 million
barrels of crude per day when fully operational.
Friday’s shipment is largely considered a technical exercise. A formal
launching ceremony to be attended by the presidents of Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Turkey is scheduled for July 13.
The Caspian’s reserves are shared by Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan,
Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.
However, hopes that Caspian oil could be an alternative source to
Middle Eastern oil have so far proven unrealistic. Analysts say the
Middle East still provides 50 percent of global oil supplies.
___
Associated Press writer Suzan Fraser in Ankara contributed to this report.

Prensa Latina, Cuba
June 3 2006
Cuba Beats Uzbekistan in Chess
Rome, Jun 2 (Prensa Latina) The Cuban male chess team defeated
Uzbekistan in the 11th round Friday, 2.5-1.5, in the World Chess
Olympiad in Turin.
Grand Master Lazaro Bruzon (Cuba) with ELO average of 2,652 points,
led the Cuban performance, beating Uzbek Rustam Kasimdzhanov (ELO
2,673) at the first table.
Cuban GM Jesus Nogueira (ELO 2,556) won the victory over
International Master Anton Filippov (Uzbekistan, ELO 2,497) at the
third table.
The match between GM Leinier Dominguez (Cuba) and Uzbek Timur Gareyev
at the second table was tied.
At the fourth table, Cuban GM Yunieski Quesada (ELO 2,512) was
defeated by Uzbek GM Saidali Iuldachev (ELO 2,480) and this became
the second defeat for the Cuban player.
The Cuban male team dropped from seventh place to eighth, with 27.5
points, while Ukraine became seventh by defeating Azerbaijan 3-1 in
this same round.
Armenia is in first place with 32 points, after defeating the Czech
Republic 3-1, followed by China and France, both with 28.5 points.
In the female teams’ competition, Cuba beat Spain 2-1, with victories
by FIDE Master Jennifer Perez (2,163) and GM Maritza Arribas (2,235)
at the second and third tables.
Cuban GM Sulennis Piña (2,334) suffered the only defeat of the Cuban
female team in the 11th competition round, losing to Spanish Monica
Calzetta (2,317).
The Cuban female team advanced from 35th to 28th place, with 18
points, in a competition led by Ukraine (25.5 points) followed by
Russia (24.5) and China (23.5).

Russian company bids to take over Armenian telecom firm
Arminfo
3 Jun 06
Yerevan, 3 June: Russia’s largest mobile operator Mobile TeleSystems
(MTS), one of the biggest companies in the CIS, is bidding to buy 90
per cent of the shares of the biggest Armenian GSM operator ArmenTel
from the Greek telecommunications group OTE, [the Russian news agency]
Oreanda reports.
OTE bought 90 per cent of ArmenTel shares in an international
competition at the end of 1997 and obtained a monopoly on
telecommunications services for 15 years.
According to ACM-Consulting, at the beginning of 2006 ArmenTel had
more than 321,000 customers, while Armenia’s second mobile operator –
VivaCell – had about 300,000.

Any Attempt to Disturb Karabakh Conflict Will Trigger Military Crisis
02.06.2006 12:23
YEREVAN (YERKIR) – When commenting on statement of Russian Defense
Minister Sergey Ivanov that the sending peacekeepers to Nagorno
Karabakh is possible in the air of Mayak radio publicist Yegor
Kholmogorov noted, `Any promises of international mediation cherish
first of all Baku’s ears.’
`If international and not only Russian peacekeepers actually appear in
the conflict zone, moreover, if they try to return anything against
the will of Armenians, this may result in deconservation of the
conflict and turning it into an actual one,’ the journalists thinks.
`What can cause a serious chain of consequences ` Armenia interferes
with the clash between Karabakh and Azerbaijan, Turkey collides
Armenia, union of Russia and Armenia, NATO treaties will come into
effect simultaneously,’ Kholmogorov. `In general, any attempt to
disturb the conflict will trigger a diplomatic and military crisis,’
the expert is sure.
In his words, it is «one thing» if Russian peacekeepers
`correctly build into the situation in the conflict zone’. `Another
thing’ is `if an international contingent loudly arrives to
`peacekeep’. `The world ahs already seen what this peacekeeping may
end up in. And not only in Yugoslavia¦’ the Russian publicist
believes.

The Standard, Hong Kong
June 3 2006
Paris of the Middle East rebuilds
Beirut is shaking off its war- torn past to recreate itself, writes
Emma Levine
Saturday, June 03, 2006

Beirut is shaking off its war- torn past to recreate itself, writes
Emma Levine
B eirut drivers have a dreadful reputation, even in the context of
the Middle East. For every screech of wheels taking a corner too
fast, there are a dozen cases of reckless lane swapping. Crossing the
road is a visitor’s main challenge.
I am introduced to highway code, Lebanon-style, while squeezed in the
back of a taxi with two large women. From the chic designer-boutique
area of Verdun, we weave a few kilometers northeast along the
Corniche, the Mediterranean promenade, to the central district known
as downtown.
The ride is a medley of contrasting sights: half-destroyed buildings,
their walls peppered with huge bullet holes struggle to stay up;
adjacent are their pristine neighbors, the sheen of newly built
high-rise towers. Scattered around the area are numerous cranes and
building sites. Palm trees fringe the roads in between.
Beirut as a holiday resort might not sound so appealing but this
once- popular destination is desperately trying to shake off its
war-battered image. A huge rebuilding project, one of the world’s
largest, has been transforming the city center, but officials and
locals don’t want tourists to have to wait the 20 years it’s likely
to complete.
The mood is buoyant, hefty investment by wealthy Lebanese expatriates
indicates optimism for the future and the number of new hotels,
shopping and dining areas is increasing. Beirut is definitely making
a welcome ret
urn to the tourist map.
During its 1960s and 70s heyday, Lebanon’s capital wore its “Paris of
the Middle East” badge with pride, a prominent destination for the
jet-set who descended on the stylish paradise of designer boutiques,
cocktail bars, the famous Casino du Liban and the best in
international cuisine. They loved the azure Mediterranean, the
archaeological sites and the mountain resorts. The eclectic mix of
people and cultures made it popular especially with residents of the
Arab Gulf states, who flocked to this unique city in the midst of a
conservative world, a cultural crossroads linking East and West, a
mix of Christian, Sunni, Shia and Druze inhabitants. It also held a
prominent position as the region’s financial hub.
Then everything changed.
A lengthy and bloody civil war between 1975 and 1990 killed about
150,000 people, injuring many more. It fragmented the country and
kept visitors away, bar foreign correspondents and United Nations
peacekeepers. For residents, it was a living hell.
Beirut was divided along religious and ideological lines: East Beirut
(taken over by Christian forces) and West Beirut (Muslim and
Palestinian militia) was divided by the Green Line of demarcation,
extending from Martyr’s Square in the historic center, along Damascus
Road to the south.
The Central District, once a mixed area, became the main combat zone.
A quarter of the population fled the country during those years. The
economic infrastructure was ruined, national output cut by half.
But for the few bullet-damaged buildings remaining, it’s now hard to
imagine the city’s horrific history: The new streets of downtown with
restored facades are awash with fashionable shops and street cafes.
A vibrant arts and fashion scene is flourishing; on warm evenings and
weekends the Corniche is busy with promenading families and
rollerblading teenagers; and there is a new energetic nightlife on
the busy streets of Gemaysiyeh, a Lan Kwai Fong equivalent packed
with restaurants and bars – more earthy than the jet-set days, but
nonetheless a welcome part of life for the locals. Everywhere,
construction cranes dot the horizon.
At the heart of the reconstruction is Solidere – the Lebanese company
for the development of Beirut central district – which embarked on
the mammoth project in 1995, on a site of about 1.2 million meters.
It involved constructing pedestrianised streets, offices, residential
areas and government buildings. But this isn’t just any war- torn
city – Beirut’s center contains a plethora of sites and monuments
spanning 5,000 years, with layers of civilizations spanning Canaanite
to Ottoman, Phoenician, Persian, Hellenistic and Roman, among others.
“This is a very important area, because it is the geographic and
historical heart of the Lebanese capital,” explains the cheerful
Nabil Rached from Solidere, showing me around the model of the area.
“We have always insisted on recreating this area in its spirit, as a
vibrant city center with a mix of commerce, history, administration,
residential and entertainment.”
The company set out a definitive strategy to preserve Beirut’s
history, integrating archaeological discoveries with new urban
design, high quality environment and infrastructure. The rebuilding
of the souks, or markets, is a prime example: Completely destroyed
during the war, they have been restored in the same form and
location, designed by award-winning architects Rafael Moneo and Kevin
Dash.
The ambitious redesign of the city’s layout meant radical
contemporary development, and also enabled its historical highlights,
such as the Roman Baths, to have more prominence.
Several of these ancient sites will be linked for a walking tour,
“taking in 5,000 years of history in 500 meters,” as Rached describes
it.
The other main tourist attraction will be a three-tier sea-front
promenade, along the 700,000m of reclaimed land.
Even the new residential blocks being added, as well as the
restoration of those badly damaged, are staying faithful to
traditional architecture.
“The achievements are impressive. The focus has been on architecture
and design but the greater challenge is to create an inclusive urban
fabric. It is easier to rebuild roads and parks than it is to
strengthen social cohesion and bring the city back together,” urban
sociologist Dr Katya Simons, a planning consultant with Solidere,
said in Planners Network magazine.
Beirut now has the second-most expensive real estate in the Middle
East North Africa region (after Kuwait) with office space in the
downtown central district averaging US$380 (HK$2,965) per meter,
effectively pricing first-time buyers out of the market. Protests
about this have been glossed over, together with the despair of
unemployment at an estimated 25 percent.
Yet there is undoubtedly a feeling of renewal and a fervent
willingness to forget the past. According to Rached, the project is
expected to create some 100,000 new jobs.
Politicians and entrepreneurs know the value of a healthy tourism
industry and are desperate to get visitors back. Joseph Sarkis,
Lebanon’s minister for tourism, wants it to be the main player in the
national economy, especially with no oil or mining industry to help
pay back the huge national debt.
“Beirut was the Paris of the Middle East, and Lebanon was known as
the Switzerland of the Middle East. These [the 1960s and 70s] were
the golden days, where no tourism existed in the region apart from
Lebanon. I remember the beautiful hotels, the celebrities and
personalities … we want people to come back now.”
One market in particular has caught his eye.
“China is a special country and very important for us. We have just
signed an executive agreement and will start creating our tourist
offices over there.”
It is only a matter of time, he says, before formalities will be
minimized and Chinese visitors will be issued visas on entry to
Lebanon, as are most other nationalities.
As Sarkis continues, it is almost possible to hear the cash registers
ringing in his mind.
“Last year, 20 million people departed China as tourists. It is
expected that in 2010, that figure will be around 80 to 100 million.
They are now becoming rich people, business people, and we want to
have a part of this market in Lebanon.”
While the war ended 16 years ago, Beirut exists in a politically
volatile area and the country has endured years of Syrian occupation.
In February, just when the country was getting back on its feet and
tourists were returning, prime minister Rafik Hariri and several of
his bodyguards were killed when a huge explosion destroyed his
motorcade near the waterfront. A charismatic billionaire – and
majority shareholder in Solidere – many believed the bomb destroyed
Lebanon’s best hope for the future. It was certainly a major setback
to the country’s progress and economic recovery. Hariri had served as
prime minister for 10 years between 1992 and 2005, and was credited
with securing the 1989 Ta’if peace accord which put an end to the
war. Huge demonstrations were held in the city shortly after his
death, demanding the withdrawal of Syrian troops.
Another, albeit minor, setback occurred in February when Muslim
rioters protesting caricatures of the Prophet Mohammed printed in
European newspapers set fire to the Danish Embassy in Beirut. The
incident was passed off as unrepresentative of the country’s politics
but it fuelled a stereotype of unrest.
There is enough evidence of tourists avoiding the capital. The newly
restored National Museum in Beirut, with exhibits ranging from
Pharaonic tablets with hieroglyphics to huge fourth- century mosaics,
remained empty on a Saturday afternoon, save for a small Japanese
group. The astounding early 19th-century palace at Beit ed Dein, just
outside Beirut, built in a mix of Arab and Italian baroque styles,
likewise is relatively unvisited.
But the city must be viewed in context. When I comment to Georges
Kahy, publisher of Touristica travel magazine, that it is a shame the
local beach is full of litter, he laughs.
“During the war it was a rubbish dump nearly 50 feet [15 meters]
high,” he says. When the city was divided, residents on the west side
had no access to the garbage treatment plant on the east, so piles of
refuse grew and spilled over into the sea. Solidere has since cleaned
up the area.
>From her haute couture store in a small arcade in Verdun, housing
many boutiques both Lebanese and foreign, Sylvia SURNAME? is
delighted at Beirut’s progress.
“Most of my customers are tourists from Arab countries. More and more
of them are coming every year, which helps our economy,” says the
designer amid her bejeweled garments costing up to US$5,000. “I love
Beirut and I’m proud to be Lebanese. We have to believe that it will
be alright, that life can be good. War is over!”
Sylvia, like most Beirutis who lived through those dark days, prefers
not to talk of the past and waxes lyrical about the country’s assets.
“I would advise anyone just to come here and see for themselves – we
have good weather, we have mountains and the sea.”
Erik Vedsegaard, Danish-born general manager of the Four Points
Sheraton, the newest of the luxury hotels in Beirut, is astounded at
the city’s development.
“The strangest thing about Lebanon is that it takes just a few months
of peace and stability and people start investing again,” Vedsegaard
says.
“I don’t know where this drive comes from. I think Europeans are much
more conservative and unwilling to take risks. Maybe that’s why
Lebanon is so different from any other place.”
A resident of the city for five years, he is aware of whatkeeps
people away.
“I speak to my mother and she asks, `Are you safe?’ That’s the
perception problem, but it is getting better all the time. Europeans
who come here are really surprised to see how far Beirut has come and
how safe it is.”
I do find the city to be safe with no hint of aggression, despite an
unnerving if incongruous abundance of armed soldiers and blockades on
the streets.
Adds Vedsegaard: “I realized recently that in all the years I have
lived here, I have never seen any drunkenness. You see the youngsters
go out to bars and nightclubs, and they go out and enjoy every
night.”
Like most residents of Beirut, Vedsegaard acknowledges the
enterprising nature of the Lebanese, especially the wealthy ones who
left during the war and now want to return and invest in a glut of
recently built hotels.
“When someone puts US$50 million or US$100 million into a hotel
project, they have to be optimistic. People must believe in it. If we
have peace within the country, and between the Israelis and the
Palestinians, Lebanon will move forward.”
It’s easy to see the best of Lebanon because it is relatively small.
It is possible in one hour by road from Beirut, for example, to visit
the fabulous souks of Tripoli in the north and the rich expanse of
cedar plantations in the Mt Lebanon range, now a protected area. The
ancient ruins at Baalbakare just 85kilometers away. Several ski
resorts provide the only winter sports facilities in the Middle East,
with quality skiing possible until April. Come down from the slopes
and it is still warm enough to have a dip in the Mediterranean.
A 20km drive north along the coast from Beirut is the ancient city of
Byblos, its ancient ruins inhabited since Neolithic times. Here lies
the answer to Lebanon’s tourism wishes, says the Lebanese Peace
Party’s Roger Edde, a presidential candidate in next year’s election.
“Don’t mention Beirut – it is synonymous with civil war,” Edde tells
me sternly. We sit in his mansion, an elegant castle-like structure
in the tiny town of Edde. Down the road is Edde Sands, a classy beach
resort which he built two years ago to cater for visitors with money.
“Lebanon can re-emerge on the international travel scene as a country
of peace and leisure, a country where people can get a real idea
about what it is to be Western in an Eastern Mediterranean country,”
he says, settling into his chair and lighting a huge pipe. “I wanted
to start something more cultural and less related to the war. Byblos
has a 7,000 year-old history as well as a mix of Shi’ite, Sunni,
Greek Orthodox and Armenian communities. There is a spirit of unity
here and that is why we want to relaunch it as a tourist
destination.”
Edde also has his eyes on the exclusive Casino du Liban a few
kilometers away. Once fully privatized, he wants to take the
“old-fashioned European type of casino” and turn it into a resort-
convention center and modern casino.
Back in Beirut I search for remnants of its old soul, ripped out when
the city center was destroyed at the heights of its conflict. On the
frontline of fire during the war, the boundary between east and west
Beirut was the Hippodrome, a recreation and sports venue.
After many years of closure, the Sunday afternoon horseracing crowd
is glad to return.
“I come here every week,” 88-year old Issam tells me.
He studies the form and send his younger pal to queue and place
another bet, for the minimum stake of 3,000 Lebanese pounds (about
HK$15). It is easy to see that the standard was not high, of neither
the race nor the track, but like the other local racing enthusiasts,
he is “just happy to be back.”
And it’s easy to find the popular entertainment areas, like Monot St,
an otherwise unassuming thoroughfare lined with bars and restaurants,
or Gemmayzeh near the port, with its clubs that stay open till the
small hours.
Then, on Sunday evenings the Corniche comes alive, not only with
those visiting the famous Rouche Rocks just off the coast.
Headscarfed old women bring plastic chairs and brew tea on tiny
stoves; men and women of all ages puff on argiles (water pipe) and
watch the world go by; teenagers practice rollerblading acrobatics
and leap makeshift hurdles; and breakdancing buskers gather a crowd
while their stereos blast out a beat.
There’s no need to worry about bombs – just be careful how you cross
the road.

OSCE MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRMEN TO CONDUCT CONSULTATIONS IN BUCHAREST
Armenpress
Jun 1 2006
BAKU, JUNE 1, ARMENPRESS: The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen are planning
to conduct consultations in Bucharest on June 3-4, an official from
Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry’s group dealing with Nagorno Karabakh
issue informed Trend news agency.
The OSCE Minsk Group Russian co-chairman Yuri Merzlyakov, French
co-chairman Bernard Fassier and USA co-chairman Steven Mann as well
as representatives from their staffs are going to participate in
the consultations.
The co-chairmen will meet June 4-5 in Bucharest, capital of Romania,
within the frameworks of the Black Sea Forum for Dialogue and
Partnership, on the eve of the expected meeting of the Armenian and
Azerbaijani presidents.

ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN UNDER STRONG PRESSURE TO HAMMER OUT NK PEACE
By Emil Danielyan
Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
May 31 2006
The United States, Russia, and France are stepping up pressure on
Armenia and Azerbaijan in a last-ditch attempt to secure a framework
agreement settling the Karabakh conflict this year. The three powers
co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group have set the stage for yet another
Armenian-Azerbaijani summit that could prove decisive in eliminating
the number one source of instability in the South Caucasus.
Official Baku and Yerevan announced last week that Presidents Ilham
Aliyev and Robert Kocharian will meet for a second time in less than
four months on the sidelines of a high-level forum of Black Sea states
that is scheduled to take place in Bucharest on June 4-6. All signs
suggest that the two leaders are as close to striking a compromise deal
as ever. Their failure to do so would be an enormous setback that would
keep the bitter territorial dispute unresolved at least until 2009.
High-ranking French, Russian, and U.S. diplomats underscored this
reality as they paid an extraordinary joint visit to the Azerbaijani
and Armenian capitals on May 24-25. (Such trips are usually made by
lower-level diplomats representing the two states.) In a statement
issued after talks with Aliyev and Kocharian, U.S. Assistant Secretary
of State Daniel Fried, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin,
and a senior French Foreign Ministry official, Pierre Morel, emphasized
that “now is the time for the sides to reach agreement on the basic
principles of a settlement.” The conflicting parties, they said, are
now “at the point where a mutually beneficial agreement is achievable.”
Aliyev and Kocharian were already widely expected to hammer out such
an agreement when they last met at the Rambouillet chateau near Paris
on February 10-11. However, the talks collapsed despite indications
that the two sides had agreed in principle to a gradual resolution
of the conflict as proposed by the mediators. The peace plan would
reportedly enable Karabakh’s predominantly Armenian population to
decide the disputed region’s status in a referendum to be held after
the restoration of six of the seven Armenian-occupied districts
in Azerbaijan proper. Few observers doubt that such a vote would
formalize and legitimize Armenia’s de facto reunification of Karabakh
that followed its victorious 1991-94 war with Azerbaijan.
Armenian officials have implied that the Rambouillet talks failed to
yield a breakthrough because of Aliyev’s last-minute rejection of this
peace formula. Indeed, the Azerbaijani president toughened his rhetoric
following the summit, repeatedly saying that he will never accept a
de jure loss of Karabakh. In a May 26 speech in Baku, he stated, “All
the occupied territories of Azerbaijan should be liberated without any
conditions.” However, Aliyev’s foreign minister, Elmar Mammadyarov,
appeared to have endorsed the referendum option in separate comments
made on the same day. Azerbaijani news agencies quoted Mammadyarov
as saying that Karabakh’s status must be determined “not only by
Karabakh’s Armenian community but also with the participation in the
process of the Azerbaijani community, after the return of Azerbaijanis
that used to live there.”
The remarks may be not only the result of the mediators’ latest
regional tour but also of Aliyev’s April talks in Washington with
U.S. President George W. Bush. Some Armenian commentators have
suggested that the high-profile White House reception, which boosted
the domestic and international legitimacy of Aliyev’s regime, was
part of U.S. efforts to coax Baku into signing up to the Minsk Group
plan. The Turan news agency reported that, in a congratulatory message
on Azerbaijan’s Day of the Republic celebrated on May 28, Bush said he
expects Aliyev to do his best to resolve the Karabakh conflict. Aliyev
also received last week a letter from French President Jacques Chirac
who urged him not to miss a “unique opportunity” for Karabakh peace,
according to the Azerbaijani ANS television.
The West does not have to exert the same amount of pressure on
Armenia, whose leadership seems to be largely going along with the
mediators’ most recent peace proposals. Local analysts agree that,
by accepting the proposed solution, Kocharian would almost certainly
secure Western support for his reputed plans to hand over power to
his most influential associate, Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian,
in 2008. Kocharian would hardly face strong opposition from
hardline political elements in his government, notably the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation (HHD). The Yerevan daily Aravot quoted on May
27 Armen Rustamian, an HHD leader who heads the Armenian parliament’s
foreign relations committed, as saying that the referendum option is
“not unfavorable for Armenia and Karabakh.”
Still, the Kocharian-Sarkisian duo would have to reckon with the
position of the Yerkrapah Union, an influential organization uniting
thousands of Armenian veterans of the Karabakh war. Its hardline
chairman, General Manvel Grigorian, and other leaders hold senior
positions in the Armenian military. Grigorian declared on May 8 that
the Armenians “have no lands to surrender.” Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian
leadership is also less than supportive of the Minsk Group plan,
arguing that the Karabakh Armenians had already voted to secede from
Azerbaijan in 1991. “Even if the Karabakh side agrees to it for some
reason, which I don’t consider likely, I doubt that such a referendum
will ever be held,” a senior aide to Arkady Ghukasian, president of
the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, told RFE/RL on May 22.
The mediators are clearly not of the same opinion. “The two sides are
closer to an agreement than they have been in the past,” Fried’s deputy
Matthew Bryza told congressional hearings in Washington on May 15. “We
look at these next couple of months as a real window of opportunity.”
(Joint statement by Daniel Fried, Grigory Karasin, and Pierre Morel,
May 25; ANS, Aravot, May 27; Turan, Day.az, May 26; RFE/RL Armenia
Report, May 22; Associated Press, May 15)