Ostrich’s Policy Is Not Helpful

OSTRICH’S POLICY IS NOT HELPFUL

A1+
[07:59 pm] 03 September, 2008

There was a moment when the Armenian leadership tried to follow
an ostrich’s policy. When the situation tensed in the region our
authorities were enjoying their holiday in Beijing," representative
of the Armenian National Congress Levon Zurabian said to A1+.

During yesterday’s Medvedev-Sarkissian meeting it became known that
Armenia is to express its stance on the recent tragic events in South
Ossetia in two days.

"Obviously, we cannot avoid sharing our stance under the given
situation. Somehow, the current situation is determined by the
indecision and inflexibility evinced at the first phase of the
conflict."

The situation was to be controlled, negotiations were to be conducted
with the conflicting sides and a solution acceptable for Armenia was
to be found in good time," notes Mr. Zurabian.

Zurabian says it is difficult to maintain good relations with Russia
and the West at a time although it would be the best solution.

"Naturally, Russia poses certain demands to its allies. Unfortunately,
it is too difficult to say how Armenia should behave under the given
situation as much depends on Russia’s demands. We do not possess
enough information to draw conclusions.

Apparently, the Armenian delegates are in a plight and they need to
adopt a flexible policy to come out of this painful situation".

Asked shouldn’t Armenia seize the opportunity and raise the issue
of the recognition of NKR independence by the Russian Federation,
Levon Zurabian said: "Such issues should be viewed only in case one
faces a real opportunity. Anyway, Armenia should somehow remind about
Karabakh otherwise the country will remain behind the times and new
developments."

Our three neighbouring unrecognized countries have been collaborating
for many years. The Nagorno Karabakh Republic was also proposed
partnership in the given format but the latter refused. Would the
Russian Federation recognise the NKR independence if Karabakh joined
in the format?

Levon Zurabian said in this context: "I don’t think Russia is ready
to recognise Karabakh’s independence today even if Karabakh joined
in the format. Today, Russia has problems with Georgia and wouldn’t
like to come into conflict with Azerbaijan. Therefore, I don’t think
Karabakh has made a fatal mistake in this case."

With regard to Turkey’s President Abdullah Gul’s visit to Armenia Levon
Zurabian said: At first sight the visit may sound as a PR-action for
the two sides. "Let’s hope for the best."

ANC Is Not Preparing A"Colored" Revolution

ANC IS NOT PREPARING A"COLORED" REVOLUTION

Interfax
Sept 2 2008
Russia

"The Armenian National Congress is not carrying out a "colored"
revolution in Armenia, but is conducting a civilized political
struggle because we are confident that the presidential elections
were held illegally and these authorities have no right to rule,"
Ter-Petrosian said.

"The impeachment of President Serzh Sargsyan is our slogan, but
this requires hard work. In fact, for me the main slogan would be to
establish and consolidate the ANC," said the opposition leader.

"Sargsyan will not leave so easily, the time must come when the
organized political majority will simply reject him and he will realize
that he can no longer stay in power. That is what I am striving for,"
said the former president.

BAKU: Turkish Expert: "I Do Not Believe Abdullah Gul’s Visit To Yere

TURKISH EXPERT: "I DO NOT BELIEVE ABDULLAH GUL’S VISIT TO YEREVAN WILL PRODUCE RESULTS"

Azeri Press Agency
Sept 2 2008
Azerbaijan

Istanbul. Mayis Alizadeh – APA. "President Abdullah Gul’s visit to
Yerevan aims at normalizing relations with this country and involving
Armenia in Caucasus Stability Pact," expert on international affairs
Gamze Kona told APA’s Turkey bureau. She said it was very hard to
reach agreement with Armenia on this issue.

"It is very difficult to reach an understanding with a nationalist
and hostile country like Armenia. Besides, work of this mechanism
will be impossible while Armenia and Russia are reviewed as part of
the Caucasus Stability Pact. Gul’s visit to Armenia may be considered
a goodwill beginning, but such acts have never produced results. I
think the president’s act will produce no results, either," she said.

Gamze Kona said Turkey took this step on the insistence of the US.

"It is not important who initiated this visit, it is important
whether the visit will produce any results. I think there will be
no results. I do not think healthy relations can be established
with Armenia, which has laid claims to Turkish territory, considers
Agri dagh a sacred place and has occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijani
territories. Bilateral relations develop more in the regions between
the countries having no historical enmity. Armenia should first of all
recognize Kars contract, then we can have discussions with them. I do
not believe that Yerevan will cease occupation of Azerbaijani lands
soon. Armenia strengthens its aggressive position day-by-day with
support of Moscow, Paris and Washington.

Turkey’s President To Make ‘Possible’ Visit To Armenia: Minister

TURKEY’S PRESIDENT TO MAKE ‘POSSIBLE’ VISIT TO ARMENIA: MINISTER

Agence France Presse
August 31, 2008 Sunday 3:44 PM GMT

Turkey’s foreign minister said Sunday he is sending a diplomatic
delegation to Armenia in the coming week to draw up plans for a
"possible" landmark visit by President Abdullah Gul.

"A delegation from my ministry will travel to Armenia in the course
of the coming week to discuss the form of a possible visit by the
head of state," Ali Babacan said at a press conference.

Armenia’s President Serge Sarkissian invited Gul to attend football
World Cup qualifiers between Armenia and Turkey at Yerevan on
September 6.

His visit could help improve relations between the two foes.

Turkey has refused to establish diplomatic ties with Armenia since
the former Soviet republic gained independence in 1991 because of
Armenian efforts to secure international recognition of Armenian
massacres under the Ottoman Empire as genocide.

At an official reception on Saturday evening, Turkey’s Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan appeared to confirm the president’s visit,
saying he will "accompany my foreign minister."

However, Gul, who attended the event, said he had not yet made up
his mind.

Last week, local media reported that the president’s office said it
will announce the trip within the next few days.

If the visit takes place, it could help ease relations between the
two neighbours, whose diplomatic ties have been strained by their
conflicting versions of the fate of the Armenians during the Ottoman
Empire.

Armenia claims up to 1.5 million of its people were killed in
orchestrated massacres during World War I as the Ottoman Empire,
Turkey’s predecessor, was falling apart.

Turkey rejects the genocide label and argues that 300,000 Armenians
and at least as many Turks died in civil strife when Armenians took
up arms for independence in eastern Anatolia and sided with invading
Russian troops.

Conflict In The Caucasus: The Long History Of Russian Imperialism

CONFLICT IN THE CAUCASUS: THE LONG HISTORY OF RUSSIAN IMPERIALISM

Israel e News

S ept 1 2008
Israel

Filed under World News, Muslim Zionism, IDF/Military, Opinion
Editorials, EU and UK, History, Russia – on Wednesday, January 09,
2008 – By: Schwartz, Stephen

The latest Russian invasion of Georgia–following the examples provided
by tsars Paul I and his successor Alexander I (in 1801) and Soviet
dictator Vladimir Lenin (in 1921, three years after Georgia first
gained modern independence)–has fully revealed the character of
post-Soviet neo-imperialism under Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

The Kremlin’s master, his puppet president Dmitry Medvedev, and their
supporters are obviously committed to reversing the dissolution of
the Soviet empire after 1991, with an ambition and ferocity previously
absent among the successors to the Communist dictators. But no one can
really have been surprised by the assault on Georgia. It was clearly
on the Russian agenda beginning early in 2004, when American-educated
and Western-oriented attorney Mikheil Saakashvili was elected Georgia’s
president after the peaceful "Rose Revolution." Military expert Ralph
Peters, in a briefing at the American Enterprise Institute on August
13, argued persuasively that the speed of Russia’s latest rape of
Georgia demonstrated that the aggressor’s armed forces were ready
and waiting for Putin’s signal to act.

Georgia’s transition toward democracy coincided with the similar
Orange Revolution in Ukraine and Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan. All
of them piqued the anger of Putin, who wanted less rather than more
self-determination in the former Soviet states.

But Georgia and Ukraine had taken further measures to consolidate
their Western alignment, by applying for membership in the NATO
alliance. Some commentators imply that Russian interference in Georgia
was spurred by Western recognition of the independence of Kosovo in
February 2008. But a much more serious contributing fact was NATO’s
decision at the Bucharest conference in April, impelled by Germany
and France under Russian influence, to reject Georgian and Ukrainian
membership in the defense organization.

President George W. Bush had lobbied for the eastward extension of
NATO. Georgia had joined the Partnership for Peace–considered by
most countries a step toward NATO membership–in 1992, and applied for
full accession in 2002, but Ukraine had delayed its application until
early this year. Exclusion of the two former Soviet possessions was
a clear signal to Putin that Moscow could begin a brutal reassertion
of domination over them.

In pursuing this aim, Putin, trained as an officer of the Soviet
secret police, carried out a series of actions, each of which should
have been enough to warn the world of his intentions. Secessionist
movements had been subsidized by the Russians since the early 1990s
in Abkhazia, where Russian "peacekeepers" were stationed in 1993,
and in South Ossetia, where some residents took Russian rather than
Georgian citizenship, even though Ossetians are not Slavs, but a
Christian people of Iranian origin.

Both of these territories have belonged to Georgia for millennia. But
they had been granted fake "autonomy" under Soviet rule, to fragment
the Georgian majority, which is also non-Slav. The Abkhazians are
related to the Georgians, and include Muslims as well as Christians.

The years since the Rose Revolution, and especially since the rejection
of Georgian and Ukrainian admission to NATO, have seen a rising Russian
policy of provocation against Georgia, the weaker of the two aspirants
to Western defense links. In 2006, mysterious explosions cut off the
Russian supply of natural gas to Georgia. Mainly rhetorical tensions
continued until April 2008, when Russian harassment increased.

Russia announced that it would recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia
as separate entities from Georgia, integrating Abkhazia’s Black Sea
transport facilities into the Russian air and maritime infrastructure,
and proposing construction of a new gas pipeline in the coastal
region. The same month, Russia’s Abkhazian agents shot down a Georgian
air force drone. In July, respected Russian military journalist Pavel
Felgenhauer warned that a Russian-provoked war would break out in
Georgia in August. His prediction was ignored in the West.

As for Saakashvili’s responsibility in the situation, the Georgian
president had been pressed to a point where a failure to act to
protect his country’s territorial integrity would have indicated
surrender to Moscow without a fight.

Once real war exploded, the Russians began a new round of provocative
public relations actions. They bussed South Ossetian "refugees"
from place to place, describing them as victims of Georgian
"genocide." Moscow declares that it has the right to intervene
anywhere the "dignity" of its co-ethnics, or their allies, may be
threatened–within or outside its borders, and especially in the
so-called "near abroad" of former Soviet territories. The Russians
have also, outrageously, called for the removal, and possible trial,
of Saakashvili as an "enemy."

To anybody who has observed the sequence of ethnic wars in the former
Communist world since 1990, the playbook is familiar. Like Putin,
Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic paraded Serbian "victims" around
the former Yugoslavia, and asserted the right to commit mass murder
in Croatia, Bosnia-Hercegovina, and Kosovo allegedly to protect his
compatriots. The establishment of mafia enclaves like the "Republika
Srpska," occupying half of Bosnia, and a similar effort now underway
north of Mitrovica in Kosovo, paralleled the nurturing of a mafia
parastate in "Transnistria" on the border of Moldova, as well as
Putin’s operations in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

But while the effects are the same, Putin has not imitated Milosevic;
rather, he has followed a pattern set even before the Soviet Union
began disintegrating, in 1988, when Armenia, allied with Russia,
recovered a section out of its neighbor, Azerbaijan that had been
detached by Stalin. Armenia and Azerbaijan, which border Georgia to
the southwest, remain at war today.

Meanwhile, radical Islamist agitation continues in Ingushetia,
Chechnya, and Daghestan, to Georgia’s north. Iran is not far away;
Persia ruled Georgia before the Russian conquest in the 19th century,
and Tehran still sees Georgia as within its potential sphere of
influence. Russia has launched its newest adventure in the most
dangerous part of the European-Asian frontier.

The horror unfolding in Georgia could prove to be the worst such
gambit since the ill-fated Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, and may
become the first major clash in a new cold war. And even if Georgia
is vanquished, wise observers like AEI’s Leon Aron warn that the real
target is Ukraine. Putin might attempt to reassert Russian control over
Crimea, which came under Ukrainian authority after communism ended;
or he might try to slice off part of Eastern Ukraine as yet another
ethnic enclave susceptible to Russian usurpation. But Ukraine is big,
and its native population is likely unafraid to fight. When Ukraine
informed Moscow that the Russian Black Sea fleet, which was stationed
in Crimea, could not be used against the Georgians, the Russian ships
lifted anchor.

Some critics say President Bush was slow to reply to Russian aggression
against Georgia, which had sent troops to fight alongside American
forces in Iraq. As the days went by, however, the U.S. response
improved, and U.S. military and humanitarian supplies have been flown
to the embattled Georgians.

Saakashvili and his people have other friends, whose attitude
toward Russian power is hardly accommodating. Along with Ukrainian
president Viktor Yushchenko, the Polish president, Lech Kaczynski,
and the leaders of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania flew to Tbilisi
to demonstrate their backing for Putin’s victims. They know only too
well the history of their region.

Thus, with the tsar’s conquest of Georgia more than 200 years ago,
the ancient Georgian Christian monarchy–which had survived Iranian
rule–was abolished. A few years later, the Georgian Orthodox Church,
which had enjoyed religious autonomy since the 4th century, was
forcibly absorbed into Russian Orthodoxy.

Under the tsars, Georgia was a hotbed of nationalist discontent. By the
beginning of Russia’s radical revolutionary period, it had come under
the political dominance of the moderate Socialists, or Mensheviks;
Lenin’s invasion in 1921 quashed the only post-tsarist Menshevik
regime. But Georgia also produced Bolsheviks, including Joseph Stalin,
who was educated in a Georgian Orthodox seminary that had become a
center for nationalist and revolutionary indoctrination.

Stalin, who never mastered the Russian language, nonetheless became
a Slav chauvinist, and although his minions in power included his
fellow-Georgian, the feral police boss Lavrenti Beria, he was brutal to
most of his ethnic peers. The dark year 1937, when the murder machine
was operating at full throttle, saw the purge and execution of Titsian
Tabidze, a gifted and renowned modernist poet who had been a close
friend of Boris Pasternak. Tabidze’s associate Paolo Yashvili committed
suicide in protest, in the office of the Georgian Writers’ Union. These
authors remain beloved heroes and martyrs of the Georgian people.

As for the South Ossetians, whose "leaders" have provided cover
for subversion of Georgian authority, they have their own baleful
history. Under the tsars, the Ossetians were known as prison guards
and other mercenaries for the Russian overlords. Stalin’s parents
have long been described as Georgianized Ossetians, and in one of his
most memorable verses, the purged and murdered poet Osip Mandelstam,
Russia’s greatest writer after Pushkin, wrote of Stalin, Every killing
is sweet as berry jam / For the proud, broad-chested Ossetian.The
poem cost Mandelstam his life.

It is still possible to prevent more bloodshed in Georgia. But time is
short in dealing with Putin, the proud, physically-fit secret police
veteran, as he advances along the terrible path of his war-mongering
predecessors.

The opinions and views articulated by the author do not necessarily
reflect those of Israel e News.

http://www.israelenews.com/view.asp?ID=2978

VivaCell Subscribers Number 1.49 Million People For Second Qt Of 200

VIVACELL SUBSCRIBERS NUMBER 1.49 MILLION PEOPLE FOR SECOND QT OF 2008

arminfo
2008-09-01 07:23:00

ArmInfo. VivaCell subscribers numbered 1.49 million people for the
second qt of 2008, Mobile TeleSystems financial results for the
second quarter ended June 30, 2008 say. As compared to the first qt
the number of subscribers was up 2.3%. Total number of MTS subscribers
is 91 million people (SIM-cards), VivaCell press-service told ArmInfo.

Revenues of VivaCell that represents MTS in Armenia totaled $61.5
million for 2nd qt of 2008, $55.2 million fr 1st qt of 2008. Operating
Income Before Depreciation and Amortization (OIBDA) totaled $33 million
and $32 million, respectively. OIBDA margin for second qt totaled
63.7%, and for the1st qt – 57.9%. Average monthly service revenue
per subscriber (ARPU) totaled $14.1 for 2nd qt and $13.1for 1st qt.

Consolidated revenues were up 34% y-o-y to $2,635 million. Consolidated
OIBDA was up 32% to $1,349 million y-o-y with 51.2% OIBDA margin.

Consolidated net income up 30% y-o-y to $659 million. Free cash-flow
generation of $1.1 billion in the first half of 2008.

In 2009 the company plans to launch 3G in Armenia (in Yerevan, Gyumri
and Vanadzor) as well as in Uzbekistan. 3G was launched in Russia
and another 14 towns will be involved till the end of 2008 and over
40 tows till the end of 2010.

MTS OJSC reports that growth of revenues in Armenia was connected
with the growth of the number of connections and increase in use
of services.

BAKU: Vice Speaker Of Armenian Parliament: "Russia’s Exclusion From

VICE SPEAKER OF ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT: "RUSSIA’S EXCLUSION FROM THE OSCE MINSK GROUP ON NAGORNO KARABAKH CONFLICT IS NOT PROFITABLE FOR ARMENIA"

Today.Az
olitics/47287.html
Aug 29 2008
Azerbaijan

"Russia’s exclusion from the OSCE Minsk Group on Nagorno Karabakh
conflict is not profitable for Armenia", considers vice speaker of
the Armenian National Assembly Grair Karapetyan.

He said Nagorno Karabakh problem depends of the works to be carried
out in the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group, further development of
the negotiation process and Russia’s co-chairing in the Minsk Group.

"If it becomes clear that the capacities of the Minsk Group have
been exhausted in the negotiation process and the talks have hit the
deadlock due to the relations between the West and Russia it would
become a serious ground for concerns", he told reporters on Friday.

At the same time, the vice speaker of the Armenian parliament considers
that Russia’s possible replacement with another country within the
Minsk Group is not profitable for Armenia.

"There are no signs of Russia’s exclusion from the OSCE Minsk Group,
but as regards the EU sanctions against Russia, they can be not only
economic but also political, which may result in cessation of Russia’s
participation in such processes", noted he.

Karapetyan considers that sooner or later, the whole world will follow
the way of recognition of the national right for self-determination.

http://www.today.az/news/p

Russia could build naval base in Abkhazia

Russia could build naval base in Abkhazia

Rus MOSCOW, August 29 (RIA Novosti) – Russia’s Black Sea Fleet may
eventually use the Abkhazian port of Sukhumi as a naval base, former fleet
commander said on Friday.
After Russia recognized the independence of Georgia’s two breakaway regions,
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Abkhazian President Sergei Bagapsh suggested
that Russia’s Black Sea Fleet could use one of the ports in the republic to
station its warships.
"Sukhumi could easily host Black Sea Fleet ships, for instance a naval
brigade of up to 30 vessels," said Admiral Eduard Baltin, commenting on
Bagapsh’s statement.
Baltin, 71, said a naval brigade might comprise a division of small ASW
ships, a division of small missile ships or boats, and a division of
minesweepers.
He said one of the large piers at the Sukhumi port had not been used since
the 1992 Georgian-Abkhazian conflict because several ships were sunk there.
"If we cleared up the harbor at the cargo terminal, we would be able to
station the ships from the naval brigade there," the admiral said.
A group of Russian warships led by the guided-missile cruiser Moskva visited
the Sukhumi port on Wednesday, as part of a peacekeeping mission in
Abkhazian territorial waters, according to the Russian Navy.
Russia has repeatedly said that it has no plans to withdraw its Black Sea
Fleet from the naval base in Sevastopol in Ukraine until the bilateral
agreement on the base’s lease expires in 2017, despite numerous statements
recently made by Ukraine that Russia should be prepared to withdraw its
fleet.
Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has stepped up security at its facilities in
Ukraine to deter possible provocative acts following the conclusion of
hostilities between Georgia and Russia over breakaway South Ossetia on
August 12.
Ukraine, which is seeking NATO membership along with Georgia, supported
Tbilisi in the conflict with Moscow.

Russia Backs Independence Of Georgian Enclaves

RUSSIA BACKS INDEPENDENCE OF GEORGIAN ENCLAVES
By Clifford J. Levy

International Herald Tribune
ope/27russia.php#
Aug 27 2008
France

MOSCOW: Russia on Tuesday recognized the independence of two enclaves
that have long sought to secede from neighboring Georgia. The action
deepened strains with the West over the conflict in the economically
vital crossroads of the Caucasus and roiled a broader debate over
how to respond to separatist movements around the world.

The Russian decision was intended to consolidate its political and
military gains in the two and a half weeks since it invaded Georgia
after hostilities flared over the breakaway territory of South Ossetia,
an ally of Moscow.

The Russian president, Dmitri Medvedev, declared in a nationally
televised address that South Ossetia and the other pro-Russian enclave,
Abkhazia, would never again have to endure what he described as
oppressive Georgian rule.

"This is not an easy choice, but it is the only way to save the lives
of people," Medvedev said.

With Russia’s image and financial markets suffering in recent days,
Medvedev took the unusual step of giving a series of interviews to
foreign media on Tuesday to explain the move. He said Russia had
abided by international law in recognizing the two enclaves, but he
left no doubt that the decision was in part retaliation for the West’s
support earlier this year for the independence of Kosovo from Serbia,
which Russia had opposed.

The United States and its allies denounced the decision, saying
that Georgia must not be broken apart and contending that Russia
was violating the cease-fire framework that it signed to halt the
fighting. The Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, accused Russia
of trying to annex South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

"This is a challenge for the entire world," Saakashvili said. "Not
just Georgia."

In Washington, President George W. Bush said, "Russia’s action only
exacerbates tensions and complicates diplomatic negotiations."

While the dispute centers on two slices of land, it has been playing
out against a much broader backdrop of historic antagonism among the
major powers over separatist movements.

World leaders have for years struggled to determine which ones
to recognize, often making decisions and then trying to limit the
repercussions by warning that each situation is unique.

The questions now are: whether that hesitance to bestow recognition
could be eroding, as witnessed by Kosovo and Russia’s action in
Georgia; and whether other independence movements will use the
recognition of the two enclaves to further their own ambitions by
citing similar grievances. Not far from Georgia, for example, is an
Armenian enclave that wants to secede from Azerbaijan, and Kurdish
separatists are seeking their own homeland in regions of Turkey
and Iraq.

In the past, most countries feared that if they waded into one such
conflict, it could be used against them in a future one. On Tuesday,
no other big power followed Moscow’s lead and voiced support for
South Ossetia’s and Abkhazia’s independence.

Many in Abkhazia have expressed the desire to be separate both from
Georgia and Russia — and some experts say it might be viable as an
independent nation, albeit a very small one, because of its larger
size and busy port.

South Ossetia, in contrast, has only 70,000 people and borders on the
Russian region of North Ossetia. Suspicions have long arisen that after
seceding from Georgia, South Ossetia would be absorbed by Russia and
joined with North Ossetia — and most Ossetians say they support that.

The Kremlin said Tuesday that it had no plans to take over South
Ossetia. It has already given Russian passports to many residents of
both places, thereby widening its influence.

Medvedev announced the enclaves’ independence with unexpected
swiftness, only a day after the Russian Parliament unanimously called
upon him to do so. Diplomats and analysts had surmised that the Kremlin
might draw the process out as part of negotiations with the West.

But tensions between the sides have been escalating, and not only
over the status of the regions. On Tuesday, Russian military and
diplomatic officials continued to complain about NATO efforts to
assist Georgia, suggesting that the alliance might be trying to send
military equipment, rather than humanitarian aid. The Russians also
expressed discomfort about the presence of NATO ships in the Black
Sea off the coast of Georgia.

Russia has for months been seething over the West’s decision this
year to recognize Kosovo’s independence from Serbia, a traditional
Russian ally. The Russians were especially angered when Western
diplomats emphasized that Kosovo was not any sort of precedent and
had no bearing on the standing of the breakaway enclaves in Georgia.

As if to drive home the idea that recognition of the enclaves was
in some sense payback, Medvedev used an interview on Tuesday with
Russia Today, the Kremlin-financed English-language channel, to turn
the West’s rationale on Kosovo against it.

"There was a special situation in Kosovo, there is a special situation
in South Ossetia and Abkhazia," he said. "Speaking about our situation,
it is obvious that our decision is aimed at preventing the genocide,
the elimination of a people, and helping them get on their feet."

Still, Russia, a sprawling nation with many nationalities, has faced
its own secessionist pressures, notably in the Muslim region of
Chechnya, where Moscow has fought two wars to crush an independence
movement. Even as they were hailing the independence of the two
enclaves, Russian officials were trying to explain why Chechnya did
not deserve the same right.

They contended that when Chechnya had had autonomy in the late 1990s,
it became a source of tremendous instability, and Russia had no choice
but to reassert complete control.

"You know what they did to their own place," the Russian foreign
minister, Sergey Lavrov, said Tuesday. "They turned it into a place
where international terrorists were feeling at home."

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, this part of the world has
been a locus of the problem of addressing separatist aspirations.

For a time, a consensus developed in the West, but with two aims
that sometimes appeared to be in conflict. On one hand, the allies,
led by the United States, were quick to recognize the independence of
former Soviet republics, including Georgia itself, the better to wrest
these countries away from Russia’s orbit and into the arms of the West.

"Depending on where you sat, you could easily call those places
breakaway republics," said Derek Chollet, a senior fellow at the
Center for a New American Security in Washington, adding that many
hard-liners in Russia did see those countries as breakaway regions.

On the other hand, a post-cold-war understanding, hardened by the
experience in Bosnia, developed that the West should be very careful
about recognizing breakaway regions, so as not to set a precedent,
or embolden secessionist areas, Chollet said.

That consensus held until February, when Kosovo declared independence,
and the West said Serbia lost its right to Kosovo because of actions
over the years by the Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic, who died
in 2006.

Igor Lukes, a professor of international relations at Boston
University, said international law contained clear standards for
evaluating whether an independence movement should be recognized, in
part based upon whether such a territory has well-defined borders,
a well-established central authority and a populace that strongly
desires secession.

The problem is that these judgments typically become hostage to
conflicts between large nations, as in the case of Kosovo, South
Ossetia and Abkhazia, Lukes said.

"These situations are not really murky," he said. "What makes the
situations murky is each superpower tries to exploit ad hoc situations
as they emerge to advance its interests and to hurt its rivals. It’s
really the way the superpowers manipulate the reality. It’s not the
reality that is complicated."

On the border area around Russia and South Ossetia on Tuesday, there
was mostly joy. Hundreds of South Ossetians streamed south to their
homes, buoyed by Russia’s decision.

At a rest home in Alagir, an hour’s drive from the border, aid
workers sat alone, eating sardines. It was one of the first moments
since the crisis began early this month when they looked out at an
empty dormitory.

Three hundred refugees had left in the morning, and 400 more were
expected to pass through on Wednesday on their way to the narrow Roki
Tunnel, which cuts through the nearly vertical ridge of the Caucasus
to South Ossetia.

"This was the only hope of people who live on the other side of the
pass to return to a normal way of life," said Avan Galachiyev, an agent
of the Federal Migration Service who had been helping the refugees.

Artur Dzhoiyev, whose family fled their village, Hampalgon, 18 years
ago, was thinking idly about returning to his "historic motherland,"
maybe building a house.

Now, he reasoned, things would be different. No Georgian checkpoints,
no need to lurch along rocky bypass roads, no rooting for documents
under the hostile gaze of soldiers.

The Georgians, Galachiyev said, have lost control of the road.

"And they won’t get it back," he said.

Reporting was contributed by Ellen Barry in Vladikavkaz, Russia;
Helene Cooper in Washington; Nicholas Kulish in Tallinn, Estonia;
and Steven Erlanger in Paris.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/08/27/eur

Rebel Georgian Regions Seeking Statehood

REBEL GEORGIAN REGIONS SEEKING STATEHOOD
by David Cutler

Reuters
Aug 25 2008
UK

Aug 25 (Reuters) – Both chambers of Russia’s parliament urged President
Dmitry Medvedev on Monday to recognise Georgia’s breakaway regions
of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states.

Here are key facts about the two Georgian regions bidding to join
the ranks of the world’s smallest independent states:

SOUTH OSSETIA:

* South Ossetia, about 100 km (60 miles) north of the Georgian capital
Tbilisi, broke away from Georgia in a 1991-92 war that killed several
thousand people. It has close ties with the neighbouring Russian
region of North Ossetia.

* The majority of the roughly 70,000 people living in South Ossetia
are ethnically distinct from Georgians. They say they were forcibly
absorbed into Georgia under Soviet rule and now want to exercise
their right to self-determination.

* A 500-strong peacekeeping force from Russia, Georgia and North
Ossetia monitors a 1992 truce. Tbilisi accuses Russian peacekeepers
of siding with separatists, something Moscow denies. Sporadic clashes
between separatist and Georgian forces have killed dozens of people
in the last few years.

* Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has proposed a peace deal
under which South Ossetia would be given "a large degree of autonomy"
within a federal state. The separatist leaders say they want full
independence.

* The separatist leader is Eduard Kokoity. In November 2006, villages
inside South Ossetia which are still under Georgian control elected
a rival leader, ex-separatist Dmitry Sanakoyev. He is endorsed by
Tbilisi, but his authority only extends to a small part of the region.

ABKHAZIA:

* A Black Sea region bordering Russia, Abkhazia was once the favourite
holiday destination of the Soviet Union’s elite. It accounts for
about half of Georgia’s coastline.

* It fought a war in the early 1990s to drive out Georgian forces. The
conflict killed an estimated 10,000 people and forced hundreds of
thousands to leave their homes.

* Georgia, a former Soviet state, says just under 250,000 people —
most of them ethnic Georgians — were driven out by the conflict and
are now registered as internally displaced. Abkhazia’s separatist
authorities dispute this, saying there are no more than 160,000
internally displaced people.

* Russia can deploy up to 3,000 peacekeeping troops in Abkhazia under
a 1994 ceasefire agreement. Georgia complained the Russian troops were
effectively propping up the separatists. Moscow said their presence
was preventing more bloodshed.

* Abkhazia’s separatist administration says the region’s population
is 340,000. Tbilisi says that is artificially inflated.

* The Abkhaz people are ethnically distinct from Georgians. They
say they were forcibly absorbed into Georgia under Soviet rule and
now want to exercise their right to self-determination. Separatist
officials say over 80 percent of residents in Abkhazia have been
issued with Russian passports.

* According to the International Crisis Group think tank, a Soviet
census in 1989 showed ethnic Abkhaz accounted for 18 percent of the
region’s population, ethnic Georgians 45 percent and other groups,
mostly Russians and Armenians, the rest.

* Starting in the late 1990s, some ethnic Georgians began returning
to their homes in Abkhazia’s Gali district, near the de facto border
with Georgia. About 50,000 people have returned to the district.