DAVUTOGLU’S ‘ZERO PROBLEM’ POLICY
Cyprus Mail
September 8, 2009 Tuesday
THE RECENT visit of Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to the
occupied north invited a flurry of critical articles in the press,
slamming his "same intransigent" positions and the not so subtle
threats made against Greek Cypriots.
Beyond the island, however, Davutoglu has garnered quite a reputation
for steering Turkish foreign policy towards a "zero problem" policy,
which roughly embodies Turkey’s desire to create good neighbourly
relations. The ultimate goal being two-fold: first, enhanced political
and economic cooperation with the Middle East and the West, and second,
to make Turkey of key strategic importance to all.
As an academic and political scientist, Davutoglu wrote a highly
influential book called Strategic Depth. He later worked as an
ambassador and chief foreign policy advisor to Turkish Prime
Minister Tayyip Erdogan, having an influence which some experts
argue is most visible when comparing the two men’s statements
and speeches. According to the Turkish Weekly, Davutoglu played a
leading part in the Turkish government’s shuttle diplomacy to end
the 2008 Israel-Gaza conflict. Today’s Zaman puts him firmly behind
the Turkish-brokered mediation between Syria and Israel.
On May 1, 2009, Davutoglu came from out of the shadows like a
traditional puppet master to take over the Turkish Foreign Ministry
from a visible standpoint.
Since then, Turkey has intensified efforts to stabilise and improve
relations with most of its neighbours. In this last month alone,
Davutoglu has travelled to Iraq and Syria to broker a peace following
a regional spat between the two over insurgency in Iraq. He’s also
been to Cairo and Stockholm, where he met with his British, Italian,
Belgian, Swedish and Spanish counterparts. He has guided his country to
the brink of a massive breakthrough in Turkish-Armenian relations. And
of course, he also came to the north of Cyprus, illegally as the
government spokesman reminds us, where he played both good and bad
cop, calling on the need for everybody to work for a solution, while
warning Greek Cypriots not to reject another one.
The Cyprus Mail asked a number of experts to comment on whether this
"zero problem" policy was the real deal.
"He’s very serious about this," said Dr James Ker-Lindsay, a Senior
Research Fellow at the LSE. "It’s very interesting to see how his
career has progressed and his influence on Turkish foreign policy,
even before the Justice and Development Party (AKP). He’s completely
reconceptualised Turkey’s relations with the outside world, especially
in the Middle East and South Caucasus."
The international relations expert said Turkey could no longer afford
to have problems with its neighbours, hence the gradual thawing
in relations with Syria, Iraq, Iran, to a lesser extent Greece,
and Armenia.
"This is vital because it impacts directly on relations with the
EU. They are about to break real ground with Armenia, leaving Cyprus
as the last piece of the puzzle," said Ker-Lindsay.
"I think Davutoglu realised a Cyprus solution is beneficial to Turkey
regardless of EU accession, because it will give Turkey a clear run
on the international relations scene. It will strengthen its case as
a mediating power in the region, and show it’s a responsible member
of the IR community. It wants to show it is a factor and a force for
stability, an economic bridge, a cultural mediator," he added.
Head of the Turkish Bureau at the Presidential Palace, Nicos
Moudouros, agreed that Davutoglu speaks a different language than his
predecessors, but argued that his policy was a combination of stick
and carrot.
"Yes, his expressions are different from the classic Turkish Foreign
Ministry statements on Cyprus, but if you look closely, you can also
find a thousand negatives. For example, when he warns Greek Cypriots
to be careful, saying ‘if you don’t accept anything this time, we
will proceed with alternative solutions’," said Moudouros.
On the other hand, the President’s advisor on Turkish affairs pointed
out Davutoglu’s statements made on September 1, 2009, where the
minister referred to the Treaty of Guarantee.
"He said one of the reasons Turkey wants to keep the guarantees
is because if you abolish them, the whole state is abolished. He
did not refer to ‘virgin birth’ or ‘coming into being’ or a ‘new
partnership’. Turkey realised this contradiction between seeking a
new state and keeping old guarantees."
Moudouros said there did appear to be a shift in Turkish foreign
policy the last seven years, with a different language adopted but
that this was combined with traditional policies.
"Turkish foreign policy is not the creation of one person. You can
see Davutoglu’s general philosophy on Greco-Turkish relations. On the
one hand you hear a different kind of language and at the same time,
Turkish flights over the Aegean. He combines hard with soft power,"
he said.
The advisor added that Turkey’s recent activity in foreign relations
was not based solely on its EU aspirations. "No, it’s not all
EU-related. Turkey wants the Middle East to be a region of peace,
and wants to have a new role in this area."
On Cyprus, however, Davutoglu was less dovish, argued Moudouros:
"Twice he said this was our last chance. Turkey says it wants to
solve the Cyprus problem. But how? That’s another question?
"It’s seeking a solution close to the Annan plan because it doesn’t
want any big shift from the boundaries already approved, after huge
processes, by various local actors in 2004."
Political analyst Sofronis Sofroniou, noted the contradiction between
the more "conciliatory tone and emphasis" of Davutoglu and the
"intransigent positions" of Erdogan.
"Possibly Erdogan is pandering to a domestic audience and Davutoglu
to a foreign one. From what we hear though, Turkey’s positions in
the negotiations are very hard, but I don’t trust our media. It
usually distorts everything and anything. We need to see the texts
for ourselves," said Sofroniou.