Author: Karagyozian Lena

Azeri Press Agency, Azerbaijan
Aug 5, 2006
Armenian Pan-National Movement will nominate Levon Ter-Petrosian for
presidency
[ 05 Aug. 2006 12:41 ]
Armenian Pan-National Movement plans to nominate former president
Levon Ter-Petrosian for presidency in 2008’s presidential election
(APA).
Ararat Zurabian, a representative of APNM, stated that the
organization is insistent on this decision but Levon Ter-Petrosian
will make the final decision.
“Of course, we will have any candidate for the elections but we want
him to be Levon Ter-Petrosian”. Zurabian said that the ruling party
enjoys only 15% support and this guarantees that Ter-Petrosian will
win an overwhelming victory if the elections are held democratically.
/APA/

EITHER MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT PAY LESS OR SUFFER LOSSES
Lragir.am
03 Aug 06
A scrutiny of the lists of 1000 big taxpayers of Armenia for the
first quarter and the first half of 2006 leads to interesting
conclusions. Especially considering that less than a year is left
until the parliamentary election in 2007 and the businessmen members of
parliament again want to have a mandate of immunity in their pockets.
Natali Pharm owned by businessman MP Samvel Alexanyan paid 150
million drams of taxes in the first quarter of 2006 and is the 51st.
In the first half of the same year the company is the 48th with 410
million drams – 150+260. Another company owned by the same member
of parliament, sugar importing Fleetfood is the 33rd in the first
quarter of 2006 with 245.5 million drams, and the 66th in the first
half with 309 million – 245.5+63.5. It means that Fleetfood paid an
average of 4 times less taxes a month, which is strange because in
summer the consumption of sugar goes up in Armenia, whereas the price
of sugar went up and the quality declined.
Vedi Alco owned by Manvel Ghazaryan is the 60th in the first quarter.
It paid 142 million drams. In the first half of the year Vedi Alco
is the 93rd. It paid 226 million drams, 142+124. Or 1.1 times less
a month.
Member of Parliament Ashot Aghababyan’s Hrazdan Holding is in the
158th place with 57 million in the first quarter, and the 154th with
138 million in the first half. By the way, Ashot Aghababyan’s company
suffered losses of 71 million drams in 2005.
Leova Khachatryan’s Concern Energy was the 419th and paid 20.2 million
drams in the first quarter, and now it is 481st with 38 million –
20.2+17.8, or an average of 1.4 times less a month.
Tigran Arzakansyan’s Great Valley paid 27.8 million drams in the first
quarter of 2006 and is the 318th, and in the first half it paid 34
million and is the 522nd, an average of 4.5 times less a month.

FIFTH INTERNATIONAL BIENALE OF MODERN ART TO BE ORGANIZED ON AUGUST 2-16 IN GYUMRI
YEREVAN, JULY 31, NOYAN TAPAN. The Center of Modern Art of Gyumri
will organize the Fifth International Bienale of Modern Art titled
“Sea, Dreams and Illusions” on August 2-16 in Gyumri. Azat Sargsian,
one of the organizers of the exhibition, informed journalists about
this at the July 31 press conference held in Yerevan.
This year more than 80 artists from nearly 20 countries will take
part in this event organized once every two years. Static displays,
as well as art creating actions, events, video-art and installation
are envisaged.
Azat Sargsian mentioned that the program is the only one in the region
and its goal is the cultural cooperation with different countries. He
attached importance especially to cooperation with the neighbor
countries, in particular, with Turkey. This year two Turk artists,
who will present a project titled “Storehouse of Dreams” prepared
with the joint efforts of 14 Turk artists, will take part in the event.
In bienale’s coordinator Arpi Tokmajian’s words, the main exhibitions
of the event will take place in Gyumri, in the Style exhibition hall,
Ethnographical Theater, Museum of Aslamazian Sisters, Zigzag shop,
as well as just in the street. Creative working days are envisaged
on the lakeside of Sevan so as the artists will be able to express
the idea of the bienale’s title in their own way.
The participants of the press conference also touched upon many
problems of the Modern Arts Center of Gyumri. In particular, as Arpi
Tokmajian mentioned, today the center hasn’t its own office and staff:
all the works are organized with the support of a group of artists.

Fresno tavern owner loved telling tales
Fresno Bee (California)
July 27, 2006 Thursday
FINAL EDITION
By Jim Steinberg The Fresno Bee
Family and friends of Tommy Sempot Saghatelian, a bartender, tavern
and restaurant owner and Fresno institution, will celebrate his life
Saturday morning at the Silver Dollar on Shaw Avenue.
Mr. Saghatelian died Saturday. He was 86.
The 11 a.m. gathering Saturday will remember Mr. Saghatelian’s life,
tales, jokes and the central role he and brothers Samuel, Snar and
Sirak played in Fresno night life. For more than half a century, the
family operated restaurants and bars, including the Silver Dollar and
the Old Fresno hofbraus and before them, Leon & Tommy’s Old Fresno
Tavern, Leon’s Bar and the Madrid Tavern downtown.
Mr. Saghatelian was born in Fresno, a son of Armenian immigrants Gazair
and Hyganoosh Saghatelian, who ran Valley Bakery, still operating as
Valley Lahvosh Baking. It continues in old Armenia Town, operated by
Mr. Saghatelian’s surviving sister, Janet Saghatelian.
Mr. Saghatelian graduated from Fresno High School, where he was an
all-Valley football center. He entered the U.S. Merchant Marine,
then the Navy. He served on the conscripted President Coolidge luxury
liner. The Coolidge was transporting supplies in 1944 when it struck a
mine in the South Pacific during Mr. Saghatelian’s watch as a gunnery
mate, daughter Tommi Saghatelian recounts:
“The ship blew up, and they were told to abandon ship. My dad couldn’t
swim, but he climbed down and got into a lifeboat.
“That was dad’s favorite war story.”
But by no means is it his only story. Mr. Saghatelian was renowned for
his story-telling by a revolving audience that included author William
Saroyan, San Francisco columnists Herb Caen and Prescott Sullivan,
and train and bus travelers passing through town.
He had planned to become an audiologist until his uncle, Leon
Saghatelian, asked him to tend bar downtown. It was in a neighborhood
sprinkled with speak-easies and bordellos, Tommi Saghatelian said.
Mr. Saghatelian became tired of customers mispronouncing his and
bartenders’ Armenian names, she said. After one botched name too many,
Sempot Saghatelian slammed a hand on the bar, uttered a short expletive
and vowed to go by Tommy from then on.
Mike Shirinian, owner of the Elbow Room in Fig Garden Village, began
his Fresno career as one of Mr. Saghatelian’s bartenders at the Silver
Dollar. He credits Mr. Saghatelian as being the “conceptual architect”
of that hofbrau, including its basic design and rationale.
“Tom was a great man, the elder statesman,” Shirinian said. “He was
the quiet strength and the ultimate arbiter. Any success I’ve had is
tied to him and his brothers. He was kind and principled. The customer
comes first. He insisted on the best meat and bread — from Valley
Bakery. We’d get peda bread [Armenian version of pita flatbread]
at 5:15 a.m., still warm.”
Mr. Saghatelian began the Silver Dollar with a visual image of the
West and San Francisco in mind: a mug of beer sliding along a lengthy
bar to a waiting customer. The Silver Dollar became a gathering
place for police, firefighters, news reporters and other “regulars,”
Shirinian recalls.
“The brothers were incredibly astute,” he says. “They knew each and
every customer.”
Mr. Saghatelian underwent triple bypass surgery in 1983.
At home on Saturday, he relaxed with family and was enjoying a good
meal when he collapsed, Tommi Saghatelian and Janet Saghatelian, Mr.
Saghatelian’s surviving sister, said.
“He was enjoying beautiful memories and good food,” Tommi Saghatelian
said of her father’s last hours. “He was happy. Gee, what a way to
go. He was 86, and he enjoyed every minute.”
The reporter can be reached at [email protected] or (559)
441-6311.
INFOBOX
Tommy Sempot Saghatelian Born: April 20, 1920 Died: July 22 Occupation:
Restaurateur and tavern keeper Survivors: Wife, Mildred Saghatelian,
son, Leon Saghatelian; daughters Debra Naworski and Tommi Robin
Saghatelian; and stepdaughter Sandra Saghatelian.

The Irish Times
July 29, 2006 Saturday
Report from the coalface of crime
by Carol Coulter
Crime: Is there a link between the act of apparently gratuitous
violence that leads to a death, and mass murder on a genocidal scale?
Can we extrapolate from the individual psychology of a criminal to
generalise about the nature of evil in the world?
These are the questions posed by Peter Charleton in this challenging
book, which ranges from the behaviour of individual criminals to the
conduct of genocidal wars such as the Nazi Holocaust and the Rwandan
massacres.
Charleton is one of the leading criminal lawyers of his generation, a
senior counsel who now mainly works for the State prosecuting serious
crime, though, as he recalls in this book, he has also often worked
for the defence. This book has arisen from his experience of 25 years
at the coal-face of dealing with serious crime, crime that challenges
our idea of what is human, and is an attempt to come up with a
coherent explanation for what lies at the root of serious crime,
especially murder.
Charleton looks to philosophy, psychology, history, myth and
literature for an explanation, and advances the thesis that “there is
a lie behind every crime”. “In twenty-five years of practice in the
criminal courts,” he writes, “it has become evident that deceit is
the primary instrument for doing evil.” This deceit is not only of
the victims; the most successful criminals also deceive themselves.
Gangland killers inflate their self-regard “so that they became
volatile to any challenge”. They live out a myth regarding their own
status and that of their group.
Charleton goes on to examine how whole societies become trapped in
lies, pointing out that the Inquisition used the same methods as
those followed by totalitarian regimes in the 20th century. The
central lie was that “enemies of God” or “enemies of the people”
existed, and that the greater good justified their extermination.
Societies that target whole groups, like the Nazis’ extermination of
the Jews or the Turks in their persecution of the Armenians, see
themselves as victims and the enemy as possessed of an ineradicable
essence, passed through the generations, which must be destroyed.
Charleton quotes Himmler: “Even the brood in the cradle must be
crushed like a puffed-up toad.”
Similar statements are to be found from the ideologues of the
campaigns against the Armenians or the Tutsi minority in Rwanda, or
from someone like Lt Calley, architect of the My Lai massacre in
Vietnam, who said: “We weren’t in My Lai to kill human beings really.
We were there to kill an ideology that is carried by, I don’t know.
Pawns. Blobs. Pieces of flesh.”
What Charleton finds disturbing is how widespread such feelings are:
“The human mind must contain some structure of indescribable evil:
call it the shadow, or the death instinct, it does not matter.”
Consciousness is that part of the mind which sees the truth, and
there may also be “unconscious powers at the disposal of people who
affirm life”.
This book is informative and stimulating, but leaves the reader with
more questions than answers. Neither truth nor lies are defined;
rather they are presented as absolutes, which are applicable to a
multiple of situations.
Truth and myth are not so easily divided. Victims exist, and
sometimes criminals have emerged from lives of almost unbelievable
deprivation and abuse; just as some groups – indeed, Jews among them
– have been victims of genocidal oppression that has marked their
subsequent political development and attitude to the lives of others.
Truth is not the same thing as self-awareness, and lies are not the
same thing as self-deceit. The wellsprings of murderous hatred are
manifold, and there may not be, in the end, a single explanation for
the presence of evil in the world.
Carol Coulter is Legal Affairs Correspondent of The Irish Times
Lies in a Mirror: An Essay on Evil and Deceit By Peter Charleton
Blackhall Publishing, 301pp. EUR 40hb/EUR 25pb

Armenia ranks 52nd in the mentality index list

ArmRadio.am
29.07.2006 12:18
Armenia ranks 52nd in the World Bank list of mentality index of the
countries of the world. When making the list, factors such as the
literacy of the population, the number of Internet and telephone
users, the legislative basis, the number of scientific periodicals,
etc were considered. The top three of the countries includes Sweden,
Finland and Denmark. Among CIS countries Russia ranks 41st, Ukraine is
49th, Georgia is 66th.

Chart Attack, Canada
July 27 2006
LIVE: System Of A Down Save Ozzfest
Thursday July 27, 2006 @ 06:30 PM
By: ChartAttack.com Staff
July 25, 2006
Molson Amphitheatre
Toronto, ON
by Andre Mishin
It’s too bad the Mindless Self Indulgence review already has the
headline “are for the children,” because it would have been just as
appropriate for the 11th edition of Ozzfest. While kids in the past
have flocked to the annual metal festival to see the likes of Marilyn
Manson, Disturbed and other new generation metal acts, they went home
with a new appreciation for Maiden, Priest or at least Ozzy/Sabbath.
This year, with the rigours of touring catching up to him, Ozzy is
only playing certain dates on the tour. Without any bands on the bill
with more than a 10-year career, the older crowd that would have
showed up just to see Sabbath was conspicuously absent and, in their
place, were lots of screaming girls. For a tour that has suffered
through questionable lineups and varying degrees of prosperity
through its history, the success of this year’s Ozzfest was in
serious jeopardy if no one was able to carry the headlining torch.
I arrived just as Massachusetts metalcore group Unearth were getting
into “Black Hearts Now Reign” from their recent release, The Oncoming
Storm. Metalcore is the latest heavy music sub-genre to have the shit
kicked out of it, mostly due to the ineffectual nothings that have
emerged from it. Unearth, on the other hand, were one of the earlier
metalcore bands and have managed to keep it skull-crushingly heavy,
staying true to the brutal breakdowns of hardcore and the riffage of
NWOBHM (that’s New Wave Of British Heavy Metal, for the children) era
bands. The group have, however, become a little stagnant, and it’ll
be interesting to see if Unearth can rise above the rest of the
metalcore bands with their upcoming release, III: In The Eyes Of The
Fire, which is out next month. Regardless, having seen them a couple
of times, they’re always powerful live.
The next band were one of those ineffectual nothings. I really tried
to sit through the entire Atreyu set, but adding to the torture of
listening to their annoying brand of boy band metal were a group of
young girls in front of me who were not only loving it, but thrashing
around like wounded animals. Until then, I never thought there was a
wrong way to mosh.
The crowd grew larger as Italy’s Lacuna Coil hit the stage. I saw
them open for Rob Zombie earlier in the year and, while they didn’t
blow me away, I did enjoy their set. I attributed that, though, to
the voice and beauty of Lacuna Coil singer Cristina Scabbia, and I
thought there was no way that was going to happen this time. But,
once again, I liked their show. They’re not a really heavy band, but
they never try to be. They go out and do what they do, and do it
well. This time around, I was even able to recognize the song “Our
Truth,” where before, it all sounded the same to me.
The true “veterans” of the tour were Hatebreed. Playing their third
Ozzfest, the champions of underground hardcore can’t really be the
classic band that save Ozzfest because they’re underground hardcore.
They’ll go down as legends in their sub-genre, but the hardcore sound
is too limited to make them heavy metal icons. Still, Hatebreed were
the first band on the bill to really command the crowd, eventually
getting everyone out of their seats and pumping their fists to
pulverizing anthems “I Will Be Heard” and “This Is Now.” Everybody,
that is, except for the Atreyu fans in front of me who were now
literally sitting in their chairs with their fingers in their ears.
Hatebreed are another band who always kill live. The fact that singer
Jamey Jasta has strong enough pipes to perform those songs night
after night is incredible.
Avenged Sevenfold opened with “Beast And The Harlot,” a song that
flirts with Guns N’ Roses-like greatness, but degenerates into a
slightly heavier Simple Plan. That pretty much sums up the band’s
music and performance. They can be great at times, especially lead
guitarist Synyster Gates and drummer The Rev. But if the band want
the respect they feel they deserve, singer M. Shadows needs to knock
it off with the girly singing. They score points for putting on an
entertaining set, but those points were subtracted when they covered
Pantera’s “Walk.” Phil Anselmo himself said it best on “Regular
People (Conceit):” “You ain’t got the balls, son.”
Next up were Disturbed. Singer David Draiman went into a diatribe
about the decline of heavy music and, on a separate occasion, asked
the crowd to “pray for heavy metal.” If my prayers were answered, the
lights would have collapsed on stage – not killing the band, just
rendering them unable to play music anymore. To my surprise, the
now-capacity crowd didn’t share my sentiments. Fans pumped their
fists throughout the entire set and sang every word, including those
to tracks off the band’s latest album, the appropriately titled
10,000 Fists. Why is it that somewhere in some publication, poor Fred
Durst’s name continues to be crucified while these nu-metal rejects
have a platinum album in Canada? I can understand why fans like
Atreyu or Avenged Sevenfold, but these guys? Maybe it’s the band’s
battle cry, “Ooh wa ah ah ah?”
With only one band remaining, Ozzfest seemed destined for failure
because nobody was able to fill Ozzy’s shoes. Then System Of A Down
guitarist Daron Malakian’s silhouette appeared on stage as he kicked
into the solo intro of “Soldier Side” before the rest of the band
joined him as they launched into “Attack.” As they moved on to the
infectious hit “B.Y.O.B.,” something slowly began to dawn on me. In
the mere nine years separating the band’s debut and their headlining
slot on this year’s Ozzfest, SOAD have become a classic metal band.
>From the deafening singalong of “Chop Suey!” to the sea of lighters
during “Lonely Day,” the audience reaction proved that System are the
only band that could possibly headline Ozzfest. Even during some of
the band’s sillier songs, like “Violent Pornography,” the group
exuded an air of greatness. Frontman Serj Tankian was reminiscent of
Geddy Lee at times behind his keyboards. Malakian, who used to turn
his back to the audience for entire songs in the earlier days, has
evolved into a hell of showman. Combined, the Armenian-American duo
make up the greatest one-two punch in all of current heavy music,
making them the new millennium version Page and Plant. Seriously,
their chemistry is that good.
By the time SOAD ended with new classic “Sugar,” everyone was singing
and dancing, much like they were throughout the 90-minute set. But
the guys on stage simply ended with a humble bow, even though they
single-handedly saved Sharon Osborne’s ass. With the announcement
that System Of A Down are going on hiatus after this tour, you can
bet that no matter how long they’re gone or what happens to metal
music in that time, fans will anticipate the return of the first
classic group of the Ozzfest era.

David Simonyan: Surrender of territories to Azerbaijan: strategic consequences
for Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh
Permanent news address:
13:32 27.07.2006
REGNUM publishes the article of security expert David Simonyan
(Yerevan), which reflects his vision of the future of the Karabakh
conflict. The article is published in the author’s wording.
In the light of the continuing discourse on how to preserve the
“favorable window of opportunities” in the Karabakh peace process,
people in Armenia keep actively talking about the settlement
principles that have reportedly been presented to the Armenian
and Azeri presidents for discussion and possible signing. These
principles stipulate that Armenian troops be withdrawn from the
liberated territories and the territories, except for the Lachin
corridor, be given back to Azerbaijan.
The article is about the importance the liberated territory has for
ensuring the key element of Armenia’s national security – its military
component. When speaking about Armenia, you should keep in mind two
states, the Republic of Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic
(NKR), who are fully integrated in military and economic terms. As
you may know, military security is a condition of a state that allows
it to exclude any damage to its vital interests that can be caused
by threat or practical armed violence.
The given analysis is based on an axiom that is generally accepted
among experts: for ensuring national security one should be ready
for the worst scenario. And now, let’s more thoroughly consider the
significance the liberated territory has for ensuring the military
security of Armenia (RA and NKR).
The military conflict of 1991-1994 has improved the quality of the
following elements of the military-strategic position of the Armenian
states:
1. Frontline configuration
The present configuration of the frontline is optimal for the
Armenian side. The southern flank of the Artsakh front is shielded
by the Iranian border, the northern flank – by the hard-to-access
Mrav mountain range. In the east – from the mountains of Mrav to the
river Arax – the Armenian side has a well-fortified multi-echelon
defense line.
Should the Armenian side give back the territories of six districts
and keep only Lachin, the total frontline of the two Armenian states
with Azerbaijan, including Nakhichevan, will get 450 km longer to 1,100
km. The frontline between Artsakh and Azerbaijan will lengthen by 150
km to 360 km. For you to have the full picture of how long a border
Armenia will have with its conflicting neighbors, we should remind
you that Armenia also has a poorly protected 268 km border with Turkey.
In order to effectively fortify the extended frontline the Armenian
side will have to mobilize substantial human and financial resources.
First, the Armenian side will have to increase its army personnel (the
Armed Forces of Armenia and the Defense Army of Artsakh (Karabakh))
and, therefore, to prolong the compulsory service term for privates
and to enroll contract officers.
Second, after withdrawing troops, the Armenian side will have to
undertake big expenses to create new defense lines. To carry out the
above measures, the Armenian side will have to augment its military
budget, but to do this, it will have to further curtail its scarce
social financing and to face the ensuing negative consequences.
2. Depth of defense
The liberated territories have allowed the Armenian side to ensure
the minimum defense depth and to solve several important strategic
problems:
First, the present depth of defense has allowed the Armenian side to
form a multi-echelon defense line. Should the first line be broken, the
Armenian side will be able to resist on the following ones and to keep
the enemy outside Artsakh until additional troops come from Armenia.
Second, the central densely-populated areas of Artsakh, including
its capital, Stepanakert, as well as the settlements of the Goris,
Kapan and Meghri districts of Armenia have become inaccessible for
shelling by Azeri artillery and multiple rocket launching systems
(BM-21 “Grad”).
Third, by liberating the Zangelan, Jebrail and Fizuli districts
and moving the frontline over 100 km eastward, the Armenian side
has liquidated the threat to the vulnerable, just 40 km wide Meghri
district of the Republic of Armenia.
If the six districts are given back to the enemy and the frontline is
moved back to the former administrative border of Nagorno-Karabakh
Autonomous Region, the Armenian side will lose the necessary depth
for effective defense and will face bigger difficulties in defending
Artsakh should a new war begin.
The new frontline will run just 5 km away from the district centers of
Mardakert, Askeran and Hadrut and 18 km away from Stepanakert. If the
Armenian side gives back the Karvachar (formerly Kelbajar) district
too, the Martakert district will get vulnerable to possible military
attacks from three sides.
Even fortified to the maximum, the new defense line will not be a
reliable guarantor of Artsakh’s military security. As we know from
military history, any well-fortified defense line (Mannerheim line,
Siegfried line, Bar-Lev line) can be broken by the attacker, and only
sufficient depth of defense can allow the defender to organize new
resistance lines and by wearing the enemy out to stop his attack. For
example, during the Yom Kippur War (1973), when the Egyptian troops
overran the 157.5 km long and 15 km deep Bar-Lev line in Sinai in just
six hours, it was exactly the depth of the line that allowed Israel
to stop the Egyptian troops, to prevent them from going deep into
its territory, to mobilize new forces and to turn around the situation.
Besides, if the border is moved, most of the settlements of Artsakh
and the Sunik region of Armenia, first of all, Stepanakert, Kapan and
Goris, will find themselves unprotected in the face of possible massive
shelling by the enemy. If a new war starts, a sudden massive bombing
of towns, district centers and villages by artillery and “Grads”
will cause big casualties among civilians and heavy in destruction
in Artsakh and Sunik. This may result in a mass exodus of people from
the area.
3. Military communications
Efficient military communications, well-trained and equipped mobile
troops, timely supply of arms, hardware, ammunition, fuel and other
stuff and quick evacuation are really crucial in modern war. For
the Armenian side, regular military communications would be really
indispensable, should the enemy get big superiority during the first
days of the war.
Let’s see in detail what military communications each side has:
Azerbaijan
The densely-populated areas of Azerbaijan are connected with the
Artsakh front by two railroads: Baku-Yevlakh and Baku-Horadiz station
and several motor roads: Baku-Shemakha-Yevlakh, Baku-Kurdamir-Yevlakh
and Baku-Birmai-Bailakan (Zhdanovsk) as well as belt road
Yevlakh-Barda-Agjabedy-Bailakan – quite a convenient road running
along the frontline. All running via steppe, these roads will allow
the enemy to quickly send mobilized troops to the Artsakh front and
to get multiple superiority in personnel and hardware before the
approach of the Armenian troops.
Artsakh
With the present frontline configuration, there are four motor roads
connecting Armenia with Artsakh and the frontline: Vardenis-Mardakert,
Goris-Stepanakert-Askeran-Agda m, Kapan-Zangelan-Jebrail and
Meghri-Mijavan-Horadiz. If the war resumes, these roads will allow
the Armenian sides to bring up quite big troops from Armenia to the
Artsakh front in just a few days.
So-called belt roads – communications running along the frontline
– are crucial for the frontline resistive capacity. They allow
to quickly redeploy troops to wherever there is a danger of
breach. At present the Artsakh Defense Army has two belt roads:
Mardakert-Agdam-Fizuli-Jebrail and the North-South highway project
to connect Mardakert-Stepanakert-Red Bazar-Hadrut.
If the six liberated districts are surrendered, the Armenian armed
forces will control only one belt road – Mardakert-Hadrut and
only one road connecting mainland Armenia with Sunik and Artsakh –
Yerevan-Goris-Stepanakert. This road runs through a highly mountainous
area with many passes.
If a new war starts, the Armenians will find it extremely difficult
to keep the narrow Lachin corridor from the enemy’s two-side strikes,
but even if they retain Lachin, the enemy will use its artillery and
aviation to make it as hard as possible for Armenia to quickly transfer
big military forces and material and medical assistance to Artsakh.
Meanwhile, the fate of Artsakh will depend exactly on how quickly
Armenia will supply it with troops as the Defense Army of Artsakh
may prove not strong enough to resist the onslaught of the greatly
prevalent enemy.
Thus, you clearly see that the liberated territory is extremely
important for keeping the military balance between the conflicting
sides, while its surrender by the Armenian side will break
it to Azerbaijan’s advantage and will strongly aggravate the
military-strategic situation of the Armenian states – something
neither peace agreements nor international peacekeepers will compensate
for. This is especially dangerous as Azerbaijan is heavily swelling its
military potential, particularly, by redoubling its military budget
in 2006 — from $300 mln to $600 mln – while Armenia will hardly be
able to keep pace in the coming years for the following reasons:
1. The state budget of Armenia is 3.5 times smaller than the state
budget of Azerbaijan ($1 bln against $3.5bln) and this gap will
continue to grow as Azerbaijan will increase its oil exports.
Meanwhile, Armenia’s economic potential will not allow this country
to allot as much money to the military as to keep the military parity
with Azerbaijan.
2. Armenia can no longer hope for the big free military hardware
supplies that it got from Russia in the mid 1990s and that helped it
to keep military balance with Azerbaijan for the last decade. The key
military partner of Armenia, Russia has begun to show more pragmatic
policy in the last years, with no political or economic preferences.
Hence, only by retaining the liberated territory, carrying out military
reforms and improving the state administration system as a whole will
the Armenian side be able to offset the growing military potential
of the enemy and, thereby, to keep the Azeri side from temptation to
resume military actions.
Given the continuing variance of the sides concerning the status of
Artsakh, any change in the present configuration of the contact line
will not stop the conflict but will simply create another, much more
conflict-prone situation in the sphere of security.
Should Azerbaijan, whose leadership keeps saying that it will never
put up with the loss of Karabakh, agree to sign peace agreements, but
will later prove not content with the return of just six districts
and will make up its mind to get back the whole Artsakh by war,
Armenia will get in a serious danger.
Turning to advantage the change in the military balance and the
consequent vulnerability of Artsakh’s whole defense system, Azerbaijan
may use some convenient political moment to launch a blitzkrieg attack
and to occupy Artsakh. In order to break the frontline, the Azeris
will quickly concentrate strongly prevalent forces for one main
blow – not a hard thing to do for them given the big quantitative
and technical prevalence of the Azeri Army over the Defense Army
of Artsakh and the facts that 70% of Azeri troops are deployed near
the frontline and that Azerbaijan has better capacities for quickly
deploying mobilized troops to the Artsakh front. The outcome of the
war will greatly depend on its very first days, particularly, on the
ability of the Defense Army of Artsakh to keep the frontline intact,
which may prove quite a hard job.
Armenia will have very limited capacities to help Artsakh: it will
not be able to use the vulnerable Lachin corridor for transferring
big military contingents. If the frontline is broken and the Armenian
troops fail to stop the enemy at Stepanakert, the Armenian side may
lose not only Artsakh but also Sunik. If Azerbaijan occupies Artsakh,
Turkey will certainly encourage it to try to make true the Pan-Turkic
dream: to seize the Meghri district, thereby, linking Azerbaijan with
Turkey and cutting Armenia from Iran. To this end, the enemy may strike
from two sides – from Zangelan and Nakhichevan. After losing Artsakh,
it will be extremely hard for the Armenian side to keep Meghri:
the district is very narrow and lacks the necessary defense depth,
while the motor roads connecting it with the rest of Armenia are
quite vulnerable.
The liquidation of Serbian Krajina in Croatia in 1995 is one example
of how real this scenario can be: Croatia broke earlier cease-fire
agreements, mobilized its armed forces and suddenly attacked
Serbian Krajina. In some few days they broke the frontline and
occupied the region. As a result, Serbian Krajina stopped to exist
and half million of Serbs were forced to leave their homeland and
become refugees. This tragedy happened in the center of Europe in
the presence of thousands-strong UN peacekeeping contingent and led
to no sanctions against the aggressor side.
Conclusions:
1. One of the key factors keeping the military balance between Armenia
and Artsakh, from the one side, and Azerbaijan, from the other, and
compensating for Azerbaijan’s personnel and hardware superiority and
capacity to increase its military potential is the present optimal
configuration of the Artsakh frontline.
2. The existing military balance rather than the cease-fire agreement
of 1994 is keeping Azerbaijan back from resuming large-scale military
actions.
3. By giving back any part of the liberated territory, the Armenian
side will give Azerbaijan a military advantage and will reduce its
own military security. This may inspire the enemy – should there be
convenient moment — to solve the Karabakh problem by war.
That’s why it is absolutely inadmissible to surrender the liberated
territory to the enemy.
4. Given the aggressive and genocide-prone Azeri-Turkish alliance,
with its overwhelming military prevalence and open desire to destroy
the Armenian statehood, the key security guarantee for Armenia and
Artsakh must be the Armenian Army and the present territory of the
Armenian states (42,000 sq. km.)
© 1999-2006 REGNUM News Agency
–Boundary_(ID_CTAZ1u/4WiiwQtjC9sWuIg)–

SMOLENSKIYE BRILIANTY SHOP OPENS IN YEREVAN
YEREVAN, JULY 24, NOYAN TAPAN. Smolenskiye Brilianty jewelry shop
opened in Yerevan on July 21. It will enable to create another 200 jobs
at DCA company on procession of diamonds. As Gagik Abrahamian, Chairman
of Board of Directors of DCA, said at the July 21 press conference,
creation of new jobs will enable the plant to serve the whole network
of Smolenskiye Brilianty shops in Saint Petersburg, Minsk, Krasnoyarsk.
Maxim Shkadov, Chairman of Russian Union of Diamond Manufacturers,
said that the Crystal jewelry center (it produces Smolensk diamonds)
is a state enterprise and provides 50% of diamond production of
Russia. Its annual commodity circulation is 500 mln USD.
M.Shkadov considered opening of the shop in Yerevan as result of good
cooperation and a regular Russian investment. By the way, the prices
of jewels sold at the shop are from 300 to 30 thousand USD.

BOXERS OF ARMENIA WON 2 MEDALS IN EUROPE CHAMPIONSHIP
PLOVDIV, JULY 24, NOYAN TAPAN. On July 23, the Europe Championship
of boxing finished in the city of Plovdiv, Bulgaria. Armenian
boxer Hrachya Jafaghian (Vanadzor, 60 kilograms) won a silver
medal. Hovhannes Danelian (Yerevan, 48 kiligrams) won the bronze medal.