Author: Karagyozian Lena

… SPRING WILL COME: ONCE MORE ON THE SUBJECT OF PROMISING NUANCES OF THE KARABAKH CONFLICT RESOLUTION
by political observer Grigori Alexandrjan
Translated by A. Ignatkin

Source: Novoye Vremya (Yerevan), December 5, 2006, EV
Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
December 13, 2006 Wednesday

ARMENIAN POLITICAL OBSERVER ON THE KARABAKH CONFLICT RESOLUTION;
Analysis of the Karabakh process: a view from Yerevan.

Analysis of the opinions on the Karabakh conflict resolution
process coordinated by chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group leads to
two conclusions. First, the process is anything but clear. Second,
practically nothing about the talks changed in the last 12 years.

Probably save for the shape of the peace talks as such because the
Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh is no longer involved. Status
of the region remains the stumbling block for the whole process
of negotiations. All sorts of statements on what is presented as
"progress" are only restricted to the effort to overcome consequences
of the armed confrontation. Why are the Armenians so worried about
the step-by-step resolution plan? Because we fear that Azerbaijan may
flatly refuse to discuss the status of Karabakh once the troops are
withdrawn from the territories they currently control. Unfortunately,
these fears are not groundless. They are not just a diplomatic whim
or anything like that.

Baku annulled Karabakh Armenians’ autonomous status and went to war
on them when not a single district around Karabakh was occupied.

When, in fact, Azerbaijani kept living there. When Azerbaijan was
defeated and conflict resolution talks were under way, our neighbors
drafted a Constitution that does not specify any self-government
powers for Karabakh. When Ilham Aliyev or his Foreign Minister Elmar
Mamedjarov maintain nowadays that the matter of status should be
settled on the basis of the acting Constitution of Azerbaijan,
we are at a loss over how we are supposed to react. Demanding
it at this point makes all and any talks a plain waste of time
and effort. That is why the Armenians insist on a document that
will specify overcoming consequences of the military phase of the
conflict and, no less important, outline the principle definition
of the status of Karabakh. In other words, the Armenians stand for
gradual implementation of a package accord so that neither involved
party will be able to shirk any clause of the document.

As for Aliyev, he says he is not going to sign any document that so
much even hints at the possibility that Karabakh may eventually quit
Azerbaijan. In the meantime, everyone is stone-cold confident that
Aliyev will be elected president again in 2008 (he will all but elect
himself, really), but Robert Kocharjan in Armenia will step down in
2008. It follows that the positions of the involved parties are not
going to change at least until 2008. Count on Aliyev not to change
his stand on the matter. And what will the next president of Armenia
do? Our neighbors would certainly like to know that. They are stalling
for time in the hope that the new head of the Armenian state will
reconsider his options. That is why we do not really expect Aliyev
to sign any documents pending election of the president in Armenia.

If the heads of states decide to sign a document that does not specify
the procedure of Karabakh’s status definition on the other hand, they
will incur the wrath of their own peoples and opposition forces. It
does not take a genius to foresee that every president will present
the document as his own diplomatic triumph. In the meantime, it is
impossible to have two winners and not a single loser, isn’t it?

Statements made in Yerevan and Baku nowadays plainly indicate that
neither side so much as entertains the thought of a compromise in
the matter of Karabakh’s status even though both capitals do extol
the latest meeting between Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents in
Minsk, Belarus.

All of that confirms our previous forecasts that chairmen of the OSCE
Minsk Group would do everything in their power to create at least
an illusion of some progress made in this "year of opportunities",
everything to prevent the process of negotiations from becoming
history altogether. Neither involved party will outsmart the other.

Neither will international mediators fare any better. Judging by
the latest statements made by senior Armenian and Azerbaijani
negotiators, they are determined to be on the level with their
respective peoples. It apparently means that we will yet encounter new
"promising nuances" in the conflict resolution saga.

It is the unbelievable lack of information on what is happening in
the conflict area and what the conflicting sides are after displayed
by some representatives of the West that cannot help being amazing.

According to a story in the Baku newspaper Zerkalo, one Steffen
Raiche of the German Bundestag believes that the Armenians living in
Karabakh might accept autonomy in Azerbaijan as long as the Azerbaijani
authorities permit them to commemorate victims of genocide of the
Armenians in Osmani Turkey! Along with everything else, the German
lawmaker is confident that it is the Azerbaijanis who aspire for a
just and fair resolution. "The Armenians themselves will slow down
their development unless they do what they can to have spring to
come into the region. Whoever refuses to join prosperous Azerbaijan
nowadays will miss his chance for millennia to come…"

HEADS OF U.S. CONGRESS ARMENIAN CAUCUS EXPRESS ASSISTANCE TO NKR DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENT

Noyan Tapan
Dec 14 2006

WASHINGTON, DECEMBER 14, NOYAN TAPAN. U.S. Congress members Frank
Pallone and Joe Knollenberg sent a congratulation message to NKR
President Arkady Ghukasian on the occasion of the NKR constitutional
referendum. As Noyan Tapan was informed by the Information Department
General attached to NKR President, in the message the congressmen
express their continual assistance to political and democratic
development of Nagorno Karabakh on the way of what adoption of the
first Constitution of the Republic of Nagorno Karabakh at the December
10 national referendum is a most important stage. "We received with
satisfaction our citizens’ inflexible resoluteness to become an example
of the most important democratic experience in South Caucasus. The
Constitution of Artsakh reflects our people’s values: to live in free
and just society what supposes equal rights and economic possibilities
for everybody. Free and just societies, in essence, are most successful
and important for international security and guarantee of progress," is
said in the message. In the congressmen’s words, "Universal values kept
by our two peoples are capable to establish a stable tie between the
United States and Artsakh. A tie, which is out of short-term political
or economic considerations and is a longer-term basis for friendship
among the authorities and peoples of our countries." A parallel is
drawn in the message between the referendums on independence held
in December, 1991, and on the Constitution held on December 10,
2006. "The 1991 referendum, which took place in Artsakh, in spite
of flood of firing by Azerbaijan, became a real expression of civil
activeness. The present referendum, accompanied by threats of re-start
of violations by Azerbaijan became another sign of real patriotism." "I
ask you to be sure that we’ll always be near you, faithful to values of
freedom, security and development of the Republic of Nagorno Karabakh,
near Artsakh," is said in the congressmen’s message.

FINAL OUTCOMES OF KARABAKH REFERENDUMS ANNOUNCED

PanARMENIAN.Net
13.12.2006 13:04 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ December 12 the NKR Central Electoral Committee on
referendum totaled the outcomes of the universal vote on the draft
Constitution held December 10, 2006, reports the NKR MFA press office.

Basing on the protocols furnished by the election commissions
the Central Committee fixed the following: the number of people
eligible to vote made 90077, the number of ballot papers provided
for the polling stations made 94029, the number of registered voters
(according to signatures) made 78389. 15640 voters failed to fill in
the papers properly. 77279 voted for the adoption of the Constitution,
554 voted against, the number of inaccuracies – 0.

ARREST OF ZHIRAYR SEFILYAN IS A NEGATIVE EVENT, PRO-GOVERNMENTAL MP

Yerevan, December 12. ArmInfo. "The arrest of Zhirayr Sefilyan
is a negative event", Vaghram Baghdasaryan, Secretary of the
pro-governmental group ‘People’s MP’, said at the ‘Pastark’ club today.

He pointed out that first, the law enforcement bodies and lawyers
should explain their approach towards the case and then it would be
possible to evaluate it.

Zhirayr Sefilyan, citizen of Lebanon, Coordinator of the initiative
‘Armenian Volunteer Union’, a hero of Karabakh war and the Commander
of the special detachment ‘Shoushi’, being accused of violation of
state Constitution, was arrested on 9 December. The Investigation
Department of the National Security Council of the Republic of Armenia
investigates the case.

ARMENIAN GENERAL BENEVOLENT UNION MARKS ITS 100

PanARMENIAN.Net
12.12.2006 18:54 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The Armenian Diaspora is a means of widening the
living space of our nation, a way to pass the cultural wealth of
the nation to each other, a solid basis for economic and political
investments, with the help of which the Diaspora can participate in
awakening of the state and people," said Armenian Foreign Minister
Vardan Oskanian in Paris during the 100th celebration of Armenian
General Benevolent Union (AGBU). "After gaining Independence in
Armenia AGBU became one of those national structures, which actively
participates in reconstruction of the Armenian State. I am sure that
in the upcoming 10 years Armenia will have a steady progress. We
do not have an alternative. Only by this way we can preserve the
national originality of the new Diaspora, offering them a democratic
and prospering Armenia, to which they can resemble and be proud of,"
underlined Oskanian.

In Paris Oskanian met with AGBU presidency and leaders of other
Diaspora organizations. During the meetings issues of reconstruction
of Armenian villages have been discussed, reports press office of
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

ANOTHER VOICE FOR TRUTH

Fresno Bee (California)
December 4, 2006 Monday
FINAL EDITION

Pope mentions, during his visit to Turkey, the Armenian genocide.

Pope Benedict XVI raised the issue of the Armenian genocide committed
by the former Turkish regime in the latter years of World War I —
albeit indirectly — on Nov. 30, in the middle of his controversial
visit to Turkey.

The oblique reference came during a meeting with the Armenian Apostolic
Patriarch of Istanbul, Mesrob I, spiritual head of the 50,000 Orthodox
Armenians who remain in Turkey — out of a population of millions
who lived there before the massacres and expulsions of 1915-1917
took place.

The pope had already angered many in Turkey and the rest of the
Muslim world in September, when he quoted from an obscure medieval
text that recorded a debate between a Byzantine emperor and a Persian
visitor. Benedict recalled that the emperor had told his adversary:
"Show me just what Muhammad brought that was new, and there you will
find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by
the sword the faith he preached."

That caused a storm of outrage in the Muslim world, and threatened,
for a time, to derail the pope’s trip to Turkey.

In his conversation with the Orthodox prelate Mesrob, Benedict praised
the Armenian people for remaining faithful even under "truly tragic
conditions, like those experienced in the past century" — a clear
reference to the genocide.

Thus the pope adds his voice to the many seeking justice from Turkey
— or at least a recognition of an ancient injustice. The current
Turkish government, a successor to the Young Turks who replaced the
corrupt and decaying Ottoman Empire, does not bear responsibility
for the massacres, but it does have a duty to the truth.

The continued refusal of the Turkish government and most of the Turkish
people to even acknowledge that the genocide took place flies in the
face of incontrovertible historical fact.

Some 1.5 million Armenians — men, women and children — were savagely
torn from their homes, sent on long and deadly marches, or simply
killed out of hand.

Many of the survivors came to this country, and a few — along with
many thousands of their descendants — can still be found in Fresno
and the Valley. Here they have built good and prosperous lives, and
are thoroughly American. Yet they still remember the horrors of the
genocide, and still thirst for recognition and justice.

It’s a thirst we share, along with many others — including, it is
clear, the pope.

YERKRAPAH VOLUNTEERS’ UNION TO SUPPORT SERGE SARGSIAN’S CANDIDATURE AT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Noyan Tapan
Armenians Today
Dec 11 2006

YEREVAN, DECEMBER 11, NOYAN TAPAN – ARMENIANS TODAY. The Yerkrapah
(Defender of the Land) Volunteers’ Union will support Defence
Minister Serge Sargsian’s candidature at the presidential elections of
2008. Lieutenant-General Artur Aghabekian, Deputy Defence Minister,
member of the Union Board, declared this at the press conference
held after the Union’s 7th congress. Presenting his point of view
at journalists’ request, Lieutenant-General Manvel Grigorian, Deputy
Defence Minister, Yerkrapah Volunteers’ Union’s Board Chairman, said
that we have two years before the presidential elections and many
things can be changed. But Artur Aghabekian hurried to assure that his
and General Manvel Grigorian’s opinions "have always coincided." In
his words, the Yerkrapah Volunteers’ Union and the army are closely
connected with each other. "All Board members of the Union are first
class reserve: we will do our best for most of Board members to have
the title of senior officer of reserve, for them to take the post of
the commander in military units to be formed in the future," Deputy
Defence Minister Artur Aghabekian said. Manvel Grigorian categorically
denied the possibility that the army will act against the people in
case of strengthening of home political tension in connection with
the elections.

Answering journalists’ question, what will happen if the country’s
leadership makes an attempt to stir the army to act against the
people, he said that personally he will not obey this order. "The
army is for defending the people.

The army belongs to the people and is not someone’s property and those
stirring the army to act against the people are not from our nation,"
the Yerkrapah Volunteers’ Union Chairman declared.

MEMORANDUM OF MUTUAL UNDERSTANDING ON CIVIL TRANSIT TRANSPORT SINGED BETWEEN ARMENIA AND NATO

Noyan Tapan
Dec 08 2006

BRUSSELS, DECEMBER 8, NOYAN TAPAN. The process of implementation of
the Individual Partnership Actions Plan (IPAP) being the pivot of the
Armenia-NATO cooperation as well as the events envisaged within the
framework of the program were discussed at the December 7 meeting of
RA Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian and NATO Secretary General Jaap de
Hoop Scheffer. The sides expressed satisfaction with the results of the
first, intermediate estimation of the RA IPAP implementation process,
which were discussed at the June 26, 2006 Council sitting of the
North-Atlantic Alliance taken place in 26 (NATO members) + 1 (Armenia)
format. The Minister mentioned that similar estimations are valuable
for us from the viewpoint of defining standards and demands fixed by
the NATO for the IPAP implementation process. Minister Oskanian stated
that the IPAP Armenian commission which is responsible for the program
implementation, held 8 sittings this year during which numerous issues
concerning the program implementation were discussed. Some of them,
particularly, the IPAP deciphering issue, order of presenting programs
formed by departments for state financing, the issue of organization
of the process of founding a crisis planning emergency center found
their complete or partial solution. Mentioning the NATO commitment to
deepen the cooperation with Armenia, the Secretary General attached
importance to strengthening of democratic processes in Armenia,
especially mentioning the NATO proposal on holding reforms in the
defense sphere. He appreciated the contribution of Armenia in the NATO
peace-keeping actions. The sides attached importance to the role of
the NATO information center, opened in Yerevan, among the society from
the viewpoint of the Armenia-NATO cooperation, spreading information
about the Alliance activity. The Minister appreciated the contribution
of the International Parliamentary Group formed by the NATO in the
affair of working out the RA National Security Conception (NSC).

The Secretary General presented the results of the November 28-29 NATO
summit in Riga. The interlocutors also touched upon the Armenia-Turkey
present relations as well as the Nagorno Karabakh peaceful negotiation
process.

Immediately after the meeting, Minister Oskanian signed the
Armenia-NATO memorandum of mutual understanding "On Transit Transport
of Civil Vital Necessity to Facilitate Passing of Borders." Reference:
The memorandum of mutual understanding was worked out by the NATO/EAPC
Civil Emergency Planning Senior Committee.

Then it was approved by the SCEPC (Senior Civil Emergency Planning
Committee), at the May 11, 2006 plenary sitting. The Memorandum of
mutual understanding is a document aimed to improvement of speed-rate
and efficiency of the humanitarian aid at the time of terrorist attack
and natural or technical disasters.

The Memorandum of mutual understanding will create a common order for
organization of moving of civil vital transit transportation being
implemented in territories of participants when showing the demanded
assistance to respond chemical, biological, radioactive and nuclear
incidents, tragic or other accidents as well as natural or technical
disasters. The participants of the Memorandum on mutual understanding
can reach, in the case of necessity, additional separate agreements
to define practical or technical details. The Memorandum of mutual
understanding is an important mean for improvement of international
responses to crises and emergency situations.

FIRST LADY OF AZERBAIJAN VISITING THE USA

AzerTag, Azerbaijan
Dec 6 2006

Azerbaijan’s first lady, President of the Heydar Aliyev
Foundation, UNESCO Goodwill Ambassador, head of the Azerbaijan-USA
inter-parliamentary working group, Mrs. Mehriban Aliyeva, is continuing
her visit to the United States of America.

She already met with co-chairs of the working group for Azerbaijan at
the U.S. Congress, Democrat Solomon Ortiz, Republican Bill Shuster,
Ed Whitfield and Virginia Foxx to discuss a range of topics including
settlement of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh
and issue of repeal of the Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act.

During the meeting, Mrs. Mehriban Aliyeva said the relations between
Azerbaijan and the United States are rapidly developing.

Both Azerbaijan’s first lady and American politicians stressed the
importance of boosting the bilateral inter-parliamentary cooperation.

Mrs. Mehriban Aliyeva also met with Robert Wexler, who will soon begin
his tenure as Chairman of the Subcommittee on Europe and Emerging
Threats of the Committee on International Relations at the US Congress.

The first lady stressed the importance of the USA-supported projects
being implemented in the region, saying the United States has been
supporting Azerbaijan since it regained its independence.

Mrs. Mehriban Aliyeva invited Mr. Wexler to visit her country.

Congressman Robert Wexler stressed the importance his country attaches
to relations with Azerbaijan.

He said he believes the newly-elected U.S. Congress will pay more
attention to the South Caucasus region, in particular to Azerbaijan.

The President of the Heydar Aliyev Foundation also met with General
Brent Scowcroft, the President of the George Bush Presidential
Library Foundation, to discuss prospects of cooperation between the
two Foundations.

The first lady informed Brent Scowcroft about the education, cultural
and health projects implemented by the Heydar Aliyev Foundation.

The UNESCO Goodwill Ambassador also had a number of meetings with
representatives of American universities and research centers as
well as visited the Walter Reed Army Medical Center, Textile Museum
in Washington, and Azerbaijan Trade and Cultural Center of the
US-Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce.

AZERBAIJAN AGREES TO REFERENDUM IN KARABAKH IN 15 YEARS – MINISTER

Zerkalo, Azerbaijan
Dec 6 2006

A top Azerbaijani diplomat has admitted for the first time that
Azerbaijan has agreed with rival Armenia on holding a referendum in
Nagornyy Karabakh to define the breakaway region’s political status.

In an interview with the Russian-language daily Zerkalo, Foreign
Minister Elmar Mammadyarov said that the Armenian-controlled region
could hold a referendum to define its final status.

"Armenians are insisting on [holding the referendum] in five years.

But we agree on holding the referendum in 15 years," Zerkalo quoted
Mammadyarov as saying.

President Ilham Aliyev and other senior government officials had always
ruled out the possibility of holding a referendum in Nagornyy Karabakh,
as this would mean the predominantly ethnic-Armenian populated
region’s ultimate secession from Azerbaijan. Holding a popular vote
in a separate region is also contrary to Azerbaijan’s constitution.