Armenia And Azerbaijan Should Come To Understand That Karabakh Confl

ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN SHOULD COME TO UNDERSTAND THAT KARABAKH CONFLICT HARMS ALL SIDES

PanARMENIAN.Net
11.09.2007 12:40 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The Karabakh problem is not being resolved in Moscow
or Armenia. The main task is to wean Armenians and Azeris from looking
at each other like enemies, said Sergei Markedonov, the Head of the
Interethnic Relations Department at the Institute for Political and
Military Analysis.

"The Armenian and Azeri publics should come to understand that the
conflict is harmful for all sides.

Both Armenia and Azerbaijan are in blockade. Moscow will not resolve
the problem instead of them," he said.

"What can Russia and U.S. suggest? Formulas of compromise, efficient
moderation… Let’s imagine that Azerbaijan quits GUAM. Will it help
Baku to resolve the conflict in its favor? No. Having lost territories,
Azerbaijan thought that if Russia can’t settle the problem it’s
time to turn to West and the United States," Mr Markedonov said,
Day.az reports.

Russia, US to continue seeking for solution to missile defense issue

PanARMENIAN.Net

Russia and U.S. to continue seeking for solution to
missile defense issue
07.09.2007 18:40 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Russia and the United States will
continue looking for a solution to the ongoing dispute
on U.S. plans to deploy missile defense elements in
Central Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin said
Friday.

The Russian leader met with President George W. Bush
in Sydney, in advance of a summit of the 21 leaders of
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation countries, to be
held over the weekend.

"We discussed all problems on the bilateral agenda,
and the most important international issues, primarily
the problem of missile defense," the Russian president
said after the meeting at the Sydney Harbor Marriott
Hotel.

"We noted that our experts should hold another meeting
in the near future and travel to Azerbaijan to visit
the Gabala radar base," he said.

High-ranking diplomats from Russia and the United
States will meet in Paris on Monday to discuss U.S.
plans to deploy interceptor missiles in north Poland
and a radar system in the Czech Republic. The plans
have angered Russia, which considers them a threat to
its national security.

At the G8 summit in Germany in May, Vladimir Putin
proposed a compromise solution, offering the U.S. the
use of the Gabala radar in Azerbaijan. The radar,
located near the town of Minchegaur, 120 kilometers
(75 miles) from the capital Baku, was leased to Russia
for 10 years in 2002.

The radar has been operational since early 1985. With
a range of 6,000 kilometers (3,700 miles), it is the
most powerful in the region and can detect any missile
launches in Asia, the Middle East and parts of Africa,
RIA Novosti reports.

Exhibition Of Alexander Tamanyan In Karabakh

EXHIBITION OF ALEXANDER TAMANYAN IN KARABAKH

KarabakhOpen
07-09-2007 12:05:55

On September 3 the exhibition of Alexander Tamanyan, the famous
Armenian architect who build Yerevan, was opened at the Palace of
Culture and Youth in Stepanakert. The exhibition was initiated by
the Museum Institute of Alexander Tamanyan and the NKR ministry of
education, culture and sport, and sponsored by the Base Metals company.

The speaker of the Karabakh parliament Ashot Ghulyan, foreign minister
Georgy Petrosyan, and the grandsons of the great architect Haik and
Ara Tamanyan were present at the opening ceremony.

Haik Tamanyan said: "We acknowledged the importance of this event and
we tried our hardest to introduce the works by Alexander Tamanyan
to Karabakh duly." He said this is the first exhibition "abroad"
and perhaps the last because the exhibits are highly fragile and may
easily be spoiled.

The visitors of the exhibition learn about the life of the great
architect, and watch a film about the architect.

Happy Birthday, Mr. Mayor

Happy Birthday, Mr. Mayor

GateHouse News Service
Wed Sep 05, 2007, 12:00 AM EDT

Newton –

Mayor David Cohen celebrated his 60th birthday last Sunday at his home
with friends and family. Happy birthday, Mr. Mayor! May you have many
more to come!
Free cash flow set at $8.5 million

The city recently completed its fiscal 2007 financial report and
reached an agreement with the Massachusetts Department of Revenue that
officials have $8.5 million in free cash to play with this year.

Traditionally, that money is dedicated to the supplemental capital
budget to tend to maintenance and infrastructure needs throughout
Newton.

Last year, the city had $7.7 million in free cash, but used $3.4
million to float the fiscal 2008 budget, by the mayor’s suggestion and
the Board of Aldermen’s approval.

No determination has yet been made about how the funds will be used.
Residents demonstrate war opposition on overpass

Holding signs and waving arms, Newton residents protested the war from
two Mass. Pike overpasses last Tuesday.

As part of MoveOn’s September Stand Up Vigil, participants hoped that
commuters would be encouraged to communicate their opposition to
American military involvement in Iraq.

Two teams met on Newton’s overpasses. The westbound team stood on the
Walnut Street bridge, waving to traffic leaving Boston. The eastbound
team stood on Lowell Avenue, hoping to reach drivers traveling in the
opposite direction.

"Most of the Walnut Street team expressed great and appreciative
surprise that the majority of ‘honks of approval’ from the vehicles
came, long and loud, from long-haul truckers," wrote Bill Wilt, an
event organizer, in an e-mail.

Participants in the vigil read from a "War Toll Calendar" to remember
the soldiers that have died in the past year.

Event organizers said they intentionally created overpass
presentations in a larger type than official road signs to avoid
driving hazards for their audience.

MoveOn is a national political action committee that intends to bring
busy Americans back into the political process through education and
advocacy on important national issues.
City co-sponsors Sept. 11 event

Residents are invited to City Hall on Monday, Sept. 10, for a series
of programs commemorating the victims of Sept. 11.

The daylong event, which is organized by Interfaith Counseling
Services, will begin at 8:30 a.m. with a candlelight ceremony and a
moment of silence. It will continue with talks from artists and
community speakers, small group discussions and a theatrical reading
about a firefighter remembering his friends who died on Sept. 11.

"As we all know the tragedy of 9/11 affects us in many different ways,
even six years after it occurred," said Mayor David Cohen in a press
conference. "Americans, and people around the world, have had to adapt
to a new world order that will perhaps be touched by the evils of
terrorism forever more."

The Interfaith Counseling Services has created the event "Everyday
Echoes of 9/11" in an effort to allow for people to express their
sorrow, anger, confusion, fear and all the other range of emotions
9/11 elicits, he said.

In other news, Cohen issued a citation to Interfaith Counseling
Services for its 50 years of service to the city.
Commission returns for decision on No Place for Hate

The Human Rights Commission will meet on Tuesday, Sept. 11, to discuss
the city’s affiliation with the No Place for Hate program.

Members expect to make a decision as to whether to continue its
eight-year relationship with the tolerance-promoting campaign.

The relationship came into question this summer, when the program’s
parent organization, the Anti-Defamation League, lobbied against
legislation recognizing the Armenian Genocide. At the time, the
national director, Abraham Foxman, refused to acknowledge the mass
killings as genocide. He has since rescinded his statement, but has
refused to support legislation within Congress recognizing the
Armenian Genocide.

As a result, Watertown withdrew from the No Place for Hate program.

At the last meeting of the Newton HRC, members decided to postpone any
decision to see how events at the state and national level unfolded.
They return to the decision on Sept. 11.

The meeting will take place at 7:30 p.m. in the cafeteria of City
Hall. The public is invited to attend.

– City Update was prepared by staff reporters Leslie Friday and Chrissie Long

Source:

http://www.townonline.com/newton/news/x1185660030

Discussions On Karabakh In Brussels

DISCUSSIONS ON KARABAKH IN BRUSSELS

armradio.am
04.09.2007 17:53

September 4 in Brussels RA Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian had a
meeting with the Russian and French Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group
Yuri Merzlyakov and Bernard Fassier, Press Service of the Ministry
of Foreign Affairs informs. The meeting was attended by the Personal
Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office Andrzej Kasprzyk.

Issues related to the current state of settlement of the Karabakh
conflict, the opportunities for overcoming the misunderstandings
after the last meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents
were discussed during the meeting initiated by OSCE Minsk Group
Co-Chairs. The mediators presented the results of yesterday’s
negotiations with the Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Elmar Mammadyarov.

If a decision on continuing negotiations on a peace settlement of the
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is agreed by the
Co-Chairs in Brussels then the Foreign Ministers of both countries
may agree to continue negotiations, Vartan Oskanian, the Armenian
Foreign Minister, said to Trend News Agency.

We believe that we should continue negotiations to regulate the
conflict, Oskanan said.

No meeting is expected with the participation of Presidents from both
countries, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

War is not the way to settle the conflict. "We work jointly over the
issue to find a compromise acceptable to both sides and we should
talk over this compromise," Minister Oskanian said.

"There are issues which have not yet been touched upon. These issues
have been discussed by the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia
during their meeting in St.Petersburg. The Presidents tried to agree
on these issues, but without results. However, we will not reject
future attempts," Oskanian said.

Peaceful talks on the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh should
be carried out within the framework of the "Prague Process," Elmar
Mammadyarov, the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister, told Trend in Brussels.

Over the last few years peaceful resolution of the Karabakh conflict
has been carried out under the "Prague Process," which envisages
stage-by-stage resolution of the conflict. So far, the essence of
the plan has not been clarified because of failure to coordinate
its details.

The Minister said that a meeting with the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs
from France and Russia in Brussels on 3 September discussed the
mediators’ forthcoming visit to the region in mid-September. "A joint
discussion will be held during the visit. Now it is too premature
to speak about progress, because it can only be discussed after the
meetings," Mammadyarov said.

For the time being the date of the next round of talks between the
Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents is unknown. The Co-Chairs should
come forth with relevant initiatives. "If we see any possibility,
the meeting may be held. In general, it is necessary to mobile every
opportunity and any milestone," Mammadyarov said.

ANKARA: M. K. Ataturk’s Turkey: A Model For The Greater Middle East?

M. K. ATATURK’S TURKEY: A MODEL FOR THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST?

Journal of Turkish Weekly, Turkey
Sept 4 2007

* View by Sedat Laciner (USAK)

Recently, there is a hot debate on Turkey’s importance as model for
Iraq, Pakistan or any Muslim country among the American thinkers.

‘Turkish model prescription’ is very important for the US who has
confronted with difficulties in countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq.

US decision-makers have no hope for Muslim democratization or
liberalization, they think that Muslims can not become democrats,
Muslims can not develop liberal economy and Muslims can not be
integrated to the global political and economic system. The Western
World has lost its all hopes about Iran and Arabs. For them, Arab
means poverty, war, terrorism, backwardness, uneducated children and
humiliated women. Iranians are similarly perceived as barbarian,
militarist people who want to destroy Israel and the West. The
US’ post 9/11 measures against terrorism and extremism nourished
religionist terrorism and extreme movements in Muslim world instead
of moderate groups. Despite of this simple fact, the fresh republican
prescriptions for international terrorism and relations with the
Muslims are not different and/or better than Bush policies. For
example, one of the republican presidential nominees affirmed "If
there is a need, we will bomb Mecca and Medina, two holiest Muslim
cities." Proposal of the Democrats is not much different than the
Republicans’. Even Democrat presidential candidate Barrack Obama,
who is pacifist and anti-militarist, affirmed that the US may occupy
Pakistani territories and overthrow Musharraf’s government in order
to fight terrorists. Similarly in Netherlands, which is considered
the most liberal European country, there are some discussions about
forbidding Koran, Islam’s holly book.

In such an atmosphere, Turkey appears as a different example
compared with the rest of the Muslim world. Even tough Turkey has no
natural energy resources; it is the biggest economy among the Muslim
countries. Turkish economy is the 5th largest economy of Europe and
17th of the world. By courtesy of economic reforms realized within
last years, Turkish economy became industrial and service economy
instead of agrarian economy. Level of education, use of internet and
other educational indicators are closer to European countries than
Muslim countries. During last 5 years, thanks to the legal reforms
important clauses of Turkish law (including penalty of death) were
changed. As a result of the economic, political and legal reforms,
the European Union (EU) accepted that Turkish democracy, human rights
records and Turkish economy fulfilled the criteria for full membership
to European Union and negotiations for full membership started on 3
October 2005. It means that Turkey’s membership to the European Union
is a matter of time.

This ‘awkward Muslim country’, Turkey, attracts specially US’s
attention and the American intellectuals and experts try to understand
secret of this success. For them, reason of this success is Mustafa
Kemal Ataturk and his up-to-down policies of modernization. In other
words, Americans and some Europeans do the same mistake again; they
simplify cases, explain the causes as they want to see (wishful
thinking). But Turkey’s story can not be reduced only to Ataturk
or anyone in spite of Ataturk’s undeniable contribution to Turkish
development. Moreover, the model that Ataturk formed can not be
evaluated as dictatorship or "aggressive reforms" under the military
protection. A society can not be changed only by the efforts of a
man; democracy, human rights and liberalism can not nourish under
any army’s pressure. Secret of Turkey’s success story is more complex
than the Western experts think.

First of all, ‘Turkish Islam’ concept has always been different
than other Muslim nations’ religious understanding. Ghaznavid Empire
(Gazneliler), Karakhanids (Karahanlar), Seljuk Empire (Selcuklular),
Ottoman Empire (Osmanlilar) and other Turkish states in the past
saw expanding Islamic borders as ultimate aim as French, Italian
states who had seen increasing Christianity as state politics. But
these Turkish states at the same time were never been administered
by solely religious rules contrarily to modern Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Although Turkish Sultans were caliph, they did not act as the highest
ecclesiastic, thus the religious rules didn’t dominate the society.

Ottoman sultans acted as a secular political power and Sheyhulislam
(the chief religious official in the Ottoman Empire) represented
religious authority. However, when Sultan’s and Sheyhulislam’s point
of view were in contradiction in any issue, the Sheyhulislam lost
his post and ‘secular’ Sultan’s decisions were implemented. Although
the Ottoman Empire is defined as modern Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan
or Iran in some books published in Western countries, in reality,
the Ottoman case was so different. There were pubs in 19th century
Ottoman Empire, people wore whatever they wanted with no official
pressure and religious and sectional minorities executed their
religious exercises without restriction. Chief rabbi, Armenian,
Bulgarian, and Greek Patriarchs were deputies for the Sultan, and
Jewish and Christian minorities were autonomous in their internal
affairs, including legal issues and taxation.

It could be argued that Turkish people and statesmen acknowledged
their mistakes about politics, religion and economics earlier
than other Muslim peoples. As early as the end of the 18th
century the Ottomans started to discuss why European countries
were relatively more developed than the Ottoman Empire and they
started to introduce reforms. In the 19th century, the Ottoman
Empire was part of the European system and balance of power and
Europeanization in diplomacy, politics, social life and economy
continued during the 19th century. The Ottoman State even applied
some of the fundamental concepts of modern liberal democracy such as
democracy, decentralization, liberal economy, liberty, civic rights,
constitution and fundamental rights to its very values and principles
in 19th century. The Ottomans had parliamentary system almost more
than one century ago. At the end of 19th century, the Ottoman Empire
was a parliamentary kingdom as most of the European states. At this
period of time, the Ottoman Empire had elections, a constitution, an
elected parliament, a lively press and an opposition who criticized
even the Sultan and the government. Minority rights were also under
statutory protection. If we compare Ottoman Empire and other European
States by this point of view, we see no substantial difference between
them. At the beginning of the 20th century, Sultan’s competences were
reduced and governments formed by the Committee of Union and Progress
party were more powerful than the Sultan. At this period of time,
the Sultanate was a more symbolical position. Reforms executed by
Ataturk after the foundation of Turkish Republic had been proposed
and even started to implement at this period of time. For example,
use of Latin letters, change of weekend holidays, costume reform,
reforms in educational system, support to modern arts, etc.

were all Ottoman ideas. Modern educational system for instance wasn’t
fully formed after foundation of Turkish Republic. II. Abdulhamit
had made great contribution to establish fundamentals of modern
educational system in Turkey. Primary, secondary and high schools
were built not only in the city centers but also in the remote towns
during the Hamidian period.

Another important factor which makes Turkey different than other
Muslim states is that Turkey had never been colony of any other
Western countries. Except for the short occupation period which was
after First World War, more than 1000 years, Turkish people have been
independent. In addition to independence, they could stand puissant
against the Western World for a long time. The self-confidence
and self-reliance of the Turks continued during the 20th century
and Turkey has been one of the rare countries who could debate
the problems with the Western countries equally. For example,
Turkish war of independence was against the western countries,
Turkish army’s detachment to Cyprus came true in spite of the US’s
USSR’s and European Communities’ (EU’s) strong objections. And also,
although Turkey has disagreements with western countries on Armenian
issue, Cyprus issue and even on combating terrorism issue, sometimes
Turkey can execute its policies without asking the West’s permission
or support. When we compare Turkish attitude before the West with Arab
Governments’ submissive attitudes, Turkey’s difference could easily
be understood. That’s why after the Iraq War one of the Lebanese
newspaper called Turkey ‘more Arab than the Arab states’.

* Mustafa Kemal Ataturk Model

In brief, Ataturk was one of the best Ottoman generals and he succeeded
to realize the transformation at Turkish Republic that Sultans and
the CUP at Ottoman Empire tried to perform.

Unfortunately, the number of articles at which Ataturk is defined as
a ‘dictator’ or militarist has increased recently. At these articles
Ataturk is compared to Hitler and Saddam Hussein and only difference
between Ataturk and them is explained by Ataturk’s success and the
others’ failure. All these claims are not true and naming Ataturk as
militarist is an insult to him.

Although Ataturk was a soldier, reforms that he executed didn’t aim
to form a militarist country. Even when the country was surrounded
by conflicts, Ataturk and his friends didn’t delay the elections and
Mustafa Kemal defined the parliament as the uppermost authority over
any power. Deputies had ardent discussions while deciding to ratify
Mustafa Kemal’s supreme military commend though the enemy armies were
just 90 km away from the Parliament. In a phrase, Ataturk refused to
abjure the will of people even at war. While organizing resistance,
he lost his military ranks and continued organizing the war of
salvation as a civilian. After the foundation of Turkish Republic,
he preferred to define himself as a civilian. He might declare
himself general or the super-general as the leaders in many Third
World countries did, but he did not follow such a way. Ataturk even
forced his friend to leave their military posts when they applied
for general elections. ‘Ataturk laws’ prevented the soldiers to make
politics. The generals had to chooce military post or MP seat in the
parliament. It was obligatory to choose to become a civilian to be
a candidate at elections. In this frame, some of Ataturk’s friends
abdicated and became politicians while the others chose to continue
their work as soldiers. In most of militarist, authoritarian countries,
politicians prefer to call themselves by military appellations although
they had never been soldiers in the past.

Mustafa Kemal Ataturk told that continuity of republic is depended
on education and developed economy instead of military instruments.

That’s why he gave more importance to education which makes Turkey
different than many other Muslim countries. Unlike Saddam-like leaders
in the Muslim world, Mustafa Kemal did not try to create a one-leader
country. Republican educational system aimed to create a pluralistic
youth, because Kemal had no doubt that pluralism and free minds are
the only way to save Turkey’s future. Mustafa Kemal’s ideal country
was United Kingdom, United States or revolutionary France, not the
Soviet Union or Hitler’s Germany

People who affirm that Mustafa Kemal was a dictator show the number
of political parties at that time and ineffectiveness of opposition
as proofs. This is an anachronistic approach. At that period of time,
Turkey was as liberal and democrat as many other European countries.

We should remember that the Czech Republic was the only liberal state
at continental Europe at this period. Ataturk made efforts to pass to
multiparty system but because of international crisis and conjectural
depressions in Turkey, he couldn’t succeed. But after Ataturk’s
presidency, Ismet Inonu, one of his closest friends, succeeded to
pass to a multiparty system. And in 1950, multiparty system started
to be carried out without pressure of Western countries and Turkey
took part between the prestigious countries of Europe by the courtesy
of its relatively liberal and democratic structure.

Defining Ataturk as a dictator, whose power depends only on army,
and offering such a model for countries like Pakistan and Iraq is
a capital mistake. Unfortunately, the Western World misunderstands
Ataturk’s policies and Turkish model just like they misunderstand
the Middle East in general.

Sedat LACINER is Director of the Ankara-based Turkish think tank
USAK…

Statement By Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry Another Diplomatic Step

STATEMENT BY AZERBAIJANI FOREIGN MINISTRY ANOTHER DIPLOMATIC STEP

arminfo
2007-08-31 16:20:00

ArmInfo. The statement by Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry regarding the
14th anniversary of the so-called "occupation" of Kubatli region by
Armenians is another diplomatic step that country takes every year,
David Babayan, Karabakh political expert told ArmInfo.

However, every time making such statements, Azerbaijan confirms
its unconstructive stand on Karabakh conflict settlement. First,
the firing-points in Kubatli were buttoned-up by NKR Armed Forces
and not by those of the Republic of Armenia. Second, none of the
four UN resolutions mentions that RA troops "seized" the so-called
"occupied" territories.

Third, the acts by NKR Defence Army on neutralization of the
firing points of the Azerbaijani army cannot be characterized
as "occupation." Although the status of these territories has
changed, occupation implies a planned action of seizure, while
NKR had never planned occupation of any territory beforehand. It
had to neutralize Azerbaijani army units around the periphery of
its borders. "Azerbaijan made our country to do that. Thus, it is
not occupation, but liberation of the given territories from the
military bases of the rival. Otherwise, NKR would be unable to exist
any longer," D. Babayan said.

Unfortunately, over these years, official Baku neither did any steps
to really settle the conflict nor even demonstrated desire to do
it. Azerbaijan considers the issue only from the territorial point of
view. If it really wants to settle the conflict, it must revise the
philosophy of its vision of the settlement process and try to settle
the reasons of the conflict and not its consequences, D. Babayan said.

Azerbaijan: Mounting Pressure In The Space Between

AZERBAIJAN: MOUNTING PRESSURE IN THE SPACE BETWEEN

Stratfor
/premium/read_article.php?id=294762
Aug 31 2007

Summary

Azerbaijan is finding itself in a very vulnerable position at the front
line of the Russian resurgence. It also finds itself in a pressure
cooker as Russia and Iran attempt to redefine their neighborhoods.

Analysis

New Kremlin point man Sergei Naryshkin arrived in Azerbaijan for
wide-ranging talks Aug. 31 with the Azerbaijani leadership. After 17
years of working with Western powers, Baku is finding itself drawn
back into the Russian sphere of influence. Sparks really will begin to
fly as the former Soviet republic returns to its standard geopolitical
status as a (shrinking) buffer between Russia and Iran.

Azerbaijan has enthusiastically courted Western powers ever since
the Soviet breakup, seeking investment in its military and energy
industries. But it has always known that its pro-Western proclivities
could only exist at the pleasure of Moscow. Unlike Georgia to its
west, Azerbaijan shares no border with a NATO country, so Baku always
tried to tread softly (politically speaking) when the issue of Russian
preferences arose.

With Russian power now rising, Azerbaijan is adopting a radically
different tack than Georgia. Tbilisi sees the coming evolution as a
zero-sum game, and as such, its public face has turned shrill in an
attempt to keep the West engaged in order to avoid being crushed by
Russian moves. By contrast, Baku is attempting to appease Russian
strategic needs, while keeping its Western investment — and thus
its source of income — intact.

Azerbaijan’s real problems, however, are just beginning. The Russian
resurgence is not happening in a vacuum but in parallel with the
resurgence of Iran to Azerbaijan’s south. Iran and Russia are far from
natural allies, something poorly understood outside the Caucasus. The
two have come into conflict several times in the past.

Iran’s most recent foreign occupier was the Soviet Union.

Historically, Persian and Russian power has clashed — violently —
along their mutual border.

The two states’ relative friendliness since the end of the Cold War
was a product of their weakness. As Iran recovered from its revolution
and Russia fell from Soviet-era highs, the two countries’ spheres of
influence shrank so precipitously that their interests no longer rubbed
up against each other. With no interests in contact, there were no
interests in conflict. The two countries found it useful to cooperate
not only in ways rhetorical — primarily lambasting the United States
— but also in terms of weapons sales and technology transfers.

But the year is no longer 1998. Russia has had 10 years to climb up
from its post-Soviet nadir and Russian power is pushing against all of
its borders — including to the south. Similarly, Iran has recovered
from its loss of 1 million people during the Iran-Iraq war in the
1980s. Tehran is now more confident than it has been in decades,
and its influence is seeping into not only Iraq and the Persian Gulf,
but also into the Caucasus and Central Asia — areas Moscow considers
its exclusive playground.

And so warm rhetoric is giving way to cold calculations. Russia
has stalled, and probably outright abandoned, efforts to finish the
Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, in part due to the (accurate)
concern that a resurging, nuclear-armed Iran would be more of a threat
to Russia than to the United States (and even Israel). Russia also is
laying the groundwork for a geopolitical twist by mooting the idea
of allowing the United States sustained access to the Gabala radar
base in Azerbaijan, a radar base designed to monitor Iranian airspace.

And it should be no surprise that it will be in Azerbaijan that Iran
and Russia will face off most directly. Azerbaijan, the buffer between
the two, has a foot in each camp: Its population speaks Russian, but
is historically Shiite in religion, making it a natural rope in the
coming Russian-Iranian tug-of-war. An additional complication will
be Armenia — which both Russia and Iran unofficially have supported
in its military efforts to take control of Nagorno-Karabakh, an
Armenian-populated enclave within Azerbaijan.

The most brutal, and unfortunately most likely, consequence in the
midterm is that the two powers will fight a proxy war in the Caucasus
using Armenia and Azerbaijan as their pawns. In large part, this
is because such a war is inevitable. Azerbaijan’s newly developed
energy wealth — it is now producing about 1 million barrels per day
of crude and some 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas, and as a
result is enjoying an annual gross domestic product growth rate in
excess of 30 percent — has empowered it to go on a military buildup
of a sort the region has not seen since World War I as a step toward
recovering its territory from Armenian forces.

With a war coming, and Russian-Iranian competition building, the two
larger powers will be motivated to shape to their own advantage the
conflict between the two minor powers. The only thing that remains
unclear is which side Russia and Iran will support more thoroughly.

http://www.stratfor.com/products

Armenian Families Receiving Poverty Benefit, One-Time Monetary Suppo

ARMENIAN FAMILIES RECEIVING POVERTY BENEFIT, ONE-TIME MONETARY SUPPORT NUMBER 140,745 IN FIRST HALF OF 2007

ARKA News Agency
Aug 31 2007
Armenia

YEREVAN, August 31. /ARKA/. Armenian families receiving poverty
benefit and one-time monetary support numbered 140,745 in the first
half of 2007.

The National Statistical Service of Armenia reported that as per
the data provided by the Ministry of Labour and Social Issues,
these families make up 506,528 people, including 293,744 women and
212,784 men.

According to the report, 124,556 families (471,532 people) receive
poverty benefit and 16,189 families (34,996 people) receive on-time
monetary support.

As of July 1 2007, AMD26.4bln was allocated by the Government for
paying poverty benefits and one-time monetary support, with AMD
12.7bln of them paid actually. ($1 = AMD336.49).

Edward Aghajanov: Real Sector Of Economy Drops

EDWARD AGHAJANOV: REAL SECTOR OF ECONOMY DROPS

Panorama.am
14:06 30/08/2007

"By and by we are approaching to the return point from where the way
back to normal economy will be hard," economist Edward Aghajanov told
reporters today also saying "after that point" even if 10 time cleverer
and Nobel Prize winner specialists come to power in Armenia, it will
be impossible to correct the situation. In his words, unfortunately
the argument between opposition and the authorities in power is around
this issue. "The authorities in power announce two-digit growth and
the opposition refuses to accept that and no one speaks about the
structure and the quality of that growth," Aghajanov said.

Speaking about economic indicators in 2006, Aghajanov emphasized
that the economy reported 13.4 percent growth in GDP "but the real
sector of the economy had nothing to do with that." In his words the
industry reported a drop, the growth in agriculture was zero and the
main reason for the economic growth was elite construction.