LAYING LOW ON TURKEY
by Fabrizio Tassinar
EUobserver.com
November 5, 2007 Monday 9:22 AM GMT
EUOBSERVER / COMMENT – If further evidence were needed, the second
progress report on Turkey’s bid for European Union membership, to be
released on 6 November by the European Commission, will confirm that
Ankara is up for a bumpy and long ride.
Brussels’ harsh remarks on Turkey’s record of political reforms
over the last year are admittedly warranted. And given the dramatic
events that have taken place in the past months – the assassination
of the Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink, the Army’s ‘e-coup’
in April and the deterioration of the security situation in the
Kurdish Southeast -such criticisms are hardly surprising.
What continues to be baffling is the EU’s constant emphasis on the
historic, unprecedented and unique character of its enlargement
towards Turkey.
That Turkey constitutes a very special case in the EU enlargement
history should be apparent even to the casual observer of international
affairs. And so is Turkey’s crucial importance for the prospects
of democracy in the Arab-Muslim world, for EU’s fledgling foreign
policy and even for the fortunes of the Union as a political and
economic entity.
European uneasiness with multiculturalism
Paradoxically, however, these are the very same items used by Ankara’s
many detractors to explain why Turkey’s accession would spell the
end of the EU.
The country’s religious background, its volatile geopolitical
environment, its vast size and rising population all make a perfect
match with Europe’s longstanding introspection and growing uneasiness
with multiculturalism. And, in recent years, they have all played
extremely well in the hands of Turkey-bashers in Europe.
To dispel these concerns, it would in principle suffice to recall the
stipulations that Turkey and the EU agreed upon initiating accession
negotiations in 2005.
These state that ‘negotiations are an open-ended process, the outcome
of which cannot be guaranteed beforehand’ and that ‘long transitional
periods, derogations, specific arrangements or permanent safeguard
clauses’ may have to be considered.
In plain English, this means that even if Turkey becomes a EU member,
it may be prevented from ever integrating in the Union in certain
sensitive sectors such as movement of people.
If circumstances allowed a more serene and rational discussion on the
matter, this would probably put to rest the rumours about ‘privileged
partnership’ as a substitute to full membership, to which French
President Nicolas Sarkozy has given a new lease of life. But in the
overheated political environment that characterises the debate on
Turkey today, it is plainly not enough.
Advised to lay low
That is why, for the time being, supporters of Ankara’s EU application
would be well advised to lay low.
Pro-EU leaders in Turkey and pro-Turkey leaders in Europe would be
much better off if they avoided trumpeting the strategic and normative
importance of Turkey’s accession and focused on the substance of the
Commission’s work.
Even better, they would do Europe a huge favour if they dropped
controversial references to the past, sidelined their inspired
visions for the far future, and stuck to the serious challenges they
face today.
This is not a tactical expedient: it is key to keep a minimum of
credibility. The EU opened accession negotiations to make Turkey
a member of the EU family, not an important friend (which it has
already been for more than four decades).
Obsessive reminders about Turkey’s make-or-break significance for
Europe only testify to the EU’s insecurity about the enlargement
process and about itself.
And in the end of the day, the European Commission evaluates a
country’s progress not its feasibility. As the report confirms, the
jury is going to be out on Ankara’s progress for a fairly long time.
But the verdict on Turkey’s feasibility as a potential member state
of the EU has been already reached.
Fabrizio Tassinari is a Visiting Scholar at the School of Advanced
International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University in Washington.