Global Insight
February 15, 2013
Election 2013: President on course for re-election in Armenia
by Lilit Gevorgyan
The Armenian presidential election on 18 February will be regarded as
a test in upholding democratic traditions, a prerequisite for
increasing integration with the European Union.
Vibrant but strange campaign
Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan’s probably re-election on 18
February for a second term is a foregone conclusion. Sargsyan, a
veteran of the 1988-94 war against Azerbaijan, has pledge to hold
“exemplary” elections, recognising that strengthening Armenia’s
democratic image carries tangible benefits for the country. During a
recent campaign speech, Sargsyan said that Armenia can be an
attractive partner for the EU only by upholding its democratic image,
as it does not have the hydrocarbon resources of its foe, the
neighbouring Azerbaijan.
Much like the May 2012 parliamentary election campaign, the
presidential race has also been vibrant and significantly different
from the 2008 campaign. Freedom of media and speech is certainly a
visible achievement, as is access to public space and the freedom to
hold rallies. Social media has also exploded onto the political scene,
actively used by the government and the opposition. Unlike previous
races, there is a clear emergence of a more professional,
Western-style campaign management and more active use of public
relations tactics by almost all of the candidates.
President Sargsyan is facing opposition in the country, but opposing
political parties have failed to capitalise on this anti-government
sentiment. Sargsyan, the leader of the ruling Republican Party, is
competing with five other presidential candidates, of whom the US-born
Raffi Hovhanessian is Sargsyan’s most formidable opponent. The
Armenian former foreign minister, who gained a doctorate in law from
Georgetown University in the United States, is the leader of the
Heritage Party, which has a handful of seats in the parliament.
Hovhanessian had previously been barred from participating in the
elections for not meeting the residency criteria. The Armenian former
prime minister Hrant Bagratyan is third in the opinion polls. During
his premiership, Armenia went through a necessary but painful process
of privatisation in the 1990s. Bagratyan is often associated with that
period, although his strong professional credentials and transparency
about his personal assets have helped the former prime minister to
gain some electoral support.
Despite the authorities’ efforts to ensure violence-free elections, on
31 January another presidential candidate, Paruyr Hayrikyan, was shot
in the shoulder by unknown assailants. The Soviet-era dissident and
veteran politician is the leader of the National Self-Determination
party. Hayrikyan’s political views on the current authorities remain
unclear, while his response to the attempt on his life has left voters
confused. Hayrikyan first accused the Russian secret services of being
behind the attack, although later on he said that his statement must
not be taken literally. In a further unclear move, Hayrikyan first
refused to use his constitutional right to defer the elections for two
weeks due to his injuries. However, he then decided to lodge a request
to do so, although this was quickly withdrawn. Hayrikyan’s chances of
capitalising on the attempt on his life are not strong. However, the
incident has already cast a negative light on the election campaign.
The unexplained attack is indeed damaging, and comes against a
backdrop of Sargsyan’s administration seeking to conclude an
Association Agreement with the EU. Armenia is one of the few former
Soviet states that has concluded a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade
Agreement with the EU, and has seen a significant simplification of
the visa regime. However, Sargsyan’s government has recently come
under pressure from Russia to consider joining the Russian-led Customs
Union, together with Belarus and Kazakhstan. Owing to its close
economic and military ties with Russia, ideally Armenia would like to
accommodate Russia’s request, while pursuing a more balanced foreign
policy with the EU. However, the European bloc has been very clear
that any economic integration with Russia or setback in democratic
institutions will halt the current EU integration process. The
assassination attempt on Hayrikyan has certainly raised the alarm in
the EU, although the controversy surrounding the incident is likely to
have only a limited impact on the assessment of the vote by the
international election monitors.
Outlook and implications
President Sargsyan is heading for victory, aided by a sophisticated
public relations campaign in urban areas and the traditional
conservatism of rural voters, who tend to support the existing
authorities. Furthermore, the opposition parties’ inability to join
forces, and the decision by the key anti-government leader, former
president Levon Ter- Petrosyan, and his Armenian National Congress to
pull out of the race, have also contributed to Sargsyan’s likely
victory.
The electorate remains partially disillusioned with the entire
political process, and is likely to refrain from exercising its
rights. Ironically, the deep seated mistrust towards the authorities,
and the belief that the vote will be rigged, is preventing many voters
from taking advantage of the positive changes that have taken place in
Armenia in recent years.
The good news is that even if Sargsyan is re-elected in the first
round, his second term is unlikely to be an easy one, as he will face
increasingly politically active young professional voters pressing for
serious economic reforms, as well as calling for the removal of
oligarchic monopolies. Sargsyan has been very effective in recent
years in improving the tax collection system, but this has created a
new class of taxpaying active citizens who will demand accountability
and efficiency from the new government.