POST-PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PROCESSES AND THE BAREVOLUTION
Monday, April 15th, 2013
BY MARIA TITIZIAN
While it is business as usual for the rest of the world, the Armenian
people have been embroiled in a political process that might appear
to be imploding. But is it?
Following the presidential elections on February 18, 2013, the citizens
of Armenian unequivocally voiced their profound discontent at the
status quo. They did so by exercising their civic right motivated
not by money or because of intimidation but because they desired
regime change, a better more stable future for themselves and their
families. The result of that vote was not anticipated, not by any
political pundit, power, party, ordinary person or the ruling regime
itself. It was unprecedented and everyone in the country understood
that something had explicitly changed in people’s attitudes, behavior
and actions on Election Day. Citizens had been able to overcome
coercion and exploitation by those in power and took action in their
own hands in a way that no other politician or political force had
been able to do thus far.
Heritage Party leader and presidential candidate Raffi Hovannisian
secured 37 percent of the vote, the highest percentage for an
opposition candidate in our country’s 22-year history. Even before
the Central Electoral Commission announced the final results, Mr.
Hovannisian held a press conference several hours after the close of
polls declaring himself the winner. And thus began a series of events
which appeared at first to be mobilizing many segments of society,
which brought together different opposition forces, civil society
organizations, activists, intellectuals and ordinary people right
across the country.
As the movement began to crystallize, it took on the name of
Barevolution. In contrast to the 2008 post-presidential election
movement led by former President Levon Ter Petrossian, which led to
mass riots and clashes, leaving 10 people dead, the Barevolution was
full of light and hope and positive energy. While at first Raffi
Hovannisian himself appeared to be startled by the results he had
garnered, he began to instill a hope we had all thought was lost.
However, the repeated promise of radical structural change, the
maximalist statements, the blurred strategy, the continuing parody of
come-to-the-next-rally-and-I-will-unveil-my- plan, the hunger strike,
the conflicting messages and the ruling regime’s cynicism at the
events unfolding around the movement left many of us frustrated.
In the midst of the continuing rallies, I had to leave for a month-long
trip. I returned to Armenia a day before April 9, the day of Serzh
Sarkisian’s inauguration as president and a scheduled rally by the
Barevolution in Liberty Square. I wanted to be here, to be present,
and to bear witness to what I hoped would be a turning point for
democracy, for freedom of expression, for the future of our country.
Liberty Square on April 9 was teeming with protestors; estimates range
from 10 to 15 thousand people. Many of the streets in the city had been
sealed off for the inauguration. Armenia’s public television station
H1 aired the ceremony live. Immediately following the “official”
inauguration, it was Raffi Hovannisian’s turn in the square. Even
with the mounting unease about the movement, people were waiting
with great anticipation for a clearly defined strategy and a plan
of action, which never materialized. Mr. Hovannisian made several
patriotic statements, took an oath with the people holding up copies
of the constitution, and then told everyone to enjoy the concert and
go about their business and reassemble in Liberty Square at 6 p.m.
While many of us were shocked and left bewildered, several groups of
activists dispersed and had confrontations with police at different
locations of the city; people were injured, others were arrested
and later released. Even with the disappointment at the inaction of
Hovannisian, later that day the people did come back to the square
at 6 p.m. Once again, rhetorical statements were heard…”Today,
there is no Heritage Party, no ARF, Armenian National Congress (HAK)
or Prosperous Armenia Party (BHK), only the Armenian people.” Among
other things, he told the crowd that he would be leaving for Moscow
the following morning to meet with Putin and bring back with him “the
Armenian people’s victory.” He instructed those at the rally to come
back to Liberty Square in two days on April 12 for a two hour rally.
At this point the crowd started whistling (a sign of discontent in
Armenia) and chanting, “Now, Now, Now.”
There appeared to be confusion among the people and on the platform
where Raffi was standing. It was at this precise moment that it became
clear that the people in the square were leading the movement and not
Raffi. After continual whistling and jeering, he took a spontaneous
decision to lead the people to the Genocide Memorial via Baghramian
Street, which had been sealed off because of the inauguration
ceremonies; it would be a decision ripe with pitfalls. From the
platform, Hovannisian told the police to open the roads, he called
out to all political parties to join him and declared that “in silence
and with honor” the Armenian people were going to go to the Genocide
Memorial to pray. And as the crowd made its way toward Baghramyan
Street, they were confronted by an exceptional amount of riot police
and a melee ensued.
After much pushing and shoving, yelling and confrontation, Chief of
Police Vladimir Kasparyan negotiated with Raffi and convinced him
to proceed to the Genocide Memorial by another route, to which Raffi
agreed, I suspect to ensure that clashes did not take place. Amidst
the pushing and shoving, his wife, Armine Hovannisian is pushed to
the ground. Taking several hundred people with him on his trek up
the hill to the memorial, thousands more of his supporters stayed
behind on Baghramyan Street, leaderless and unsure of what to do,
unaware that Hovannisian had left with Kasparyan. The clashes that
ensued left dozens of people injured and dazed. Hovannisian returned
to Baghramyan Street hours later but the damage had already been done.
On April 12, under pouring rain, the Armenian people came back to
the square in much less numbers only to hear that Hovannisian, after
making several patriotic proclamations and leveling accusations at
everybody from the President to the other opposition parties, would
hold a meeting at Ani Hotel or possibly another location on April 19
where he would unveil his plan, yet again.
I don’t want to pass judgment on his tactics or strategy because they
are not known to me or those opposition parties who declared their
support for the movement publicly and early on. And while most of us
are bewildered and confused at Raffi’s leadership, we also understand
that the movement is not dead, however it is no longer clear if it is
Raffi’s movement anymore. It is the people’s movement now, (it was
always theirs to begin with) because it is they who instigated this
process by their vote. It is they who have been coming to the rallies
to support this movement. It is they who directed Raffi to Baghramyan
Street on April 9. It is they who remained on Baghramian Street after
Raffi decided to take another route to the Genocide Memorial. Watch
the videos and you will see how the crowd was left confused and
attempted to organize itself with former presidential candidate
Andreas Ghoukasian at the helm who had stayed behind. However, while
it is the people’s movement, they need capable leadership here.
I don’t want to look back over the last month and a half and say this
is what he should have or could have done to avoid the confusion of
April 9. We have what we have and we must now look to see how we can
salvage the situation.
Raffi Hovannisian claims this movement is not about him or the
Heritage Party, it is not about the ARF, HAK or BHK. It is not about
political parties, it is about the Armenian people’s victory. Surely
it is the people’s victory but the people cannot be left leaderless,
therefore since he is the symbolic leader he then too sees himself
as the de facto leader of this movement, so it is about him at the
end of the day.
This is a dangerous game that he is playing. Those powers in
opposition, whether or not their political actions have been astute,
whether or not they have their finger on the pulse of the nation,
whether they have truly done their part to ensure the success of this
movement, Hovannisian cannot repeatedly discount their presence in the
country’s political processes. While he continually says this movement
is not about them, he then turns around and criticizes them for not
participating wholly in the process and if they do want to participate
in it, he wants to dictate their actions. There isn’t a political
party in the world who would agree to those conditions and game plan.
In this vein therefore, if he is the de facto leader of this movement,
then this movement requires a plan of actions, a strategy, methodology
and above all mobilization and inclusion of all segments of society.
These need to be clearly defined, articulated and made known to the
thousands of people who form the movement and those political powers
in opposition who want to support the people. It should not be kept
a secret for Hovannisian or his inner circle. He cannot continually
ask the people in the square and in the country to follow him from
one rally to another, promising a policy and then not delivering.
A movement either realizes short-term radical change or a long-term set
of actions leading to structural reform and not simply a replacement
of one group of people in leadership positions with another group
of people or parties. Hovannisian’s maximalist statements – “The
president, the Catholicos are going to get down on their knees and beg
the Armenian people’s forgiveness;” “Russia, the U.S. and the E.U. are
going to regret their actions;” “Serzh Sarkisian’s inauguration will
take place over my dead body…”These statements do not a movement
make especially if there is not a back-up plan. Anyone hearing them
would be led to believe that immediate, radical actions are going
to be realized, the end result being violent confrontation and the
shedding of blood, something nobody in this country wants to see.
Those powers in the opposition, the ARF, BHK, HAK; social movements
like the Pre-Parliament, Sardarabad, and others along with Raffi must
come to a consensus, they must sit down together, put aside their
political ambitions and personal beliefs, they must hammer out a
plan, either with Raffi at the helm or not, it doesn’t matter, they
must not abandon the people who rose above everything and demanded
change. They cannot leave the people leaderless, they cannot once
again disappoint a whole generation that has been faithfully coming
to the rallies, they cannot allow a loss of hope and disillusionment
which will be catastrophic for the country’s future and they cannot
allow the ruling regime to believe they have won because it will lead
to their further intransigence and continuing cynicism and disregard
of the people’s desires.
Watching the videos of the events that transpired on April 9 further
solidified in my mind that this movement is not dead, that there is
still life in this movement but if it is going to succeed it needs
actions and not rhetoric. Patriotic statements, emotional rants, waving
of fists in the air can sustain it only for a short period of time;
real policy, strategy is required. The people need to understand
that this process may take years to realize its core mission –
regime change, the establishment of democratic rule, eradication of
the oligarchy, social justice, equal opportunities. These are lofty
goals at Armenia’s current juncture, and they will not be achieved
quickly and certainly not without pain and sacrifice and this had to
be communicated to the people.
The upcoming municipal elections in Yerevan must be seen as the first
step to changing the existing paradigm. Unfortunately, opposition
parties did not come to a mutual agreement about the format of moving
forward with those elections. All is not lost, however. All those
forces, political or social, formal or informal in the country that
want radical, structural change in the way the country is being run,
must not lose this historic opportunity. Hovannisian needs to listen to
those who want to support the movement, he must make concessions and
he must be more accepting and open to their opinions and those forces
must understand that while this movement is not about Hovannisian,
he has become a symbol of this movement and they need to collaborate
and consolidate their energy and resources. This movement will only
succeed when all opposition forces, when all segments of society can
mobilize and that will require dialogue, openness, concessions and
not patriotic rhetorical statements that will lead us nowhere. Barring
this, Hovannisian will lose his grassroots support, other opposition
forces will lose their credibility and the people will be left alone
in the square and the only option left for them will be to vote with
their feet…by leaving and never coming back.
http://asbarez.com/109400/post-presidential-election-processes-and-the-barevolution/