CAUCASUS, CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES WARILY ASSESSING IMPENDING ATTACK ON SYRIA
EurasiaNet.org
Sept 4 2013
September 4, 2013 – 11:40am, by Joshua Kucera
The impending attack by the U.S. on Syria has dominated the world’s
attention for the last week or so. And the powers surrounding the
Caucasus and Central Asia — notably Russia, Turkey, and Iran —
have been among the most active in discussing Syria, with Russia
and Iran backing the government of Bashar al-Assad and Turkey one
of the strongest supporters of the rebels. In spite of, or perhaps
as a result, of that, the countries in between have taken a cautious
approach to the possibility of U.S. military involvement in Syria.
Befitting its strong attachment to the U.S., Georgia’s foreign ministry
made a statement that appeared to endorse the American position that
Assad’s government should be punished for the use of chemical weapons:
“Georgia welcomes and supports readiness of the international community
to play more active role in resolving humanitarian crisis in Syria
and to hold the regime that committed this crime accountable for
violating the fundamental international humanitarian norm.”
Georgia’s position is largely a factor of its ties to Turkey and the
U.S., Michael Cecire, a Washington-based analyst of Georgia and the
Caucasus, told The Bug Pit:
The Georgian government is happy to defer to their partners in the West
and in nearby Turkey to take the lead on the issue. When it comes to
Syria, Tbilisi’s primary geopolitical concerns would be to ensure that
the consequences from an intervention did not lead to destabilization
in the South Caucasus. The Assad regime’s closeness to Hezbollah and
Iran, which both operate in the Caucasus to varying extents, makes
this at least a possibility — particularly in light of Hezbollah’s
alleged role in an early 2012 disarmed bombing attempt in Tbilisi.
But overall, I think Georgia is most keen to demonstrate its support
to the West and Ankara without committing itself to an issue with
which it currently has no immediate, clear national interests.
Azerbaijan has been more circumspect about its position, which again
would seem to be a factor of its attempt to maintain good relations
with both Turkey and Russia. The head of the foreign relations
department under the president of Azerbaijan, Novruz Mammadov, told
reporters: “The position is being discussed between the Congress and
the President of this country… It would’ve been better if we have
expressed our own opinion after their opinion is made concrete,”
Perhaps the keenest interest in the region is on the part of Armenia,
given that a substantial Armenian minority lives in Syria. Many
Syrian Armenians have already fled to Armenia, though the government
has struggled to cope with the wave of refugees. As for Yerevan’s
policy on an American attack, the government is trying to stay out
of it, though privately is against such an attack, Sergey Minasyan,
a Yerevan-based analys at the Caucasus Institutet, told The Bug Pit.
“Armenia’s vital interest is just to avoid any attack/deepening of the
conflict/external involvement (especially from Turkish side,” he said.
“The Armenian government will try to preserve neutrality as long as
possible without any strict respond/positioning and to prepare for
a new Armenian refugees wave from Syria.”
Naturally, the events in Syria also have provided an opportunity
for Armenia and Azerbaijan to spar over the disputed territory of
Nagorno Karabakh: Azerbaijan complained to the United Nations that
Armenia is resettling Syrian refugees in Karabakh, while Karabakh’s
de facto foreign ministry has denied that is the case with even a
single Syrian refugee:
Azerbaijan is trying to use the Syrian crisis for its political goals,
which is currently under the focus of the international community,
in particular the fate of the Syrian Armenians that, along with
other Syrian refugees, are forced to find refuge in different parts
of the world.
Overwhelmed by its mania of distorting the essence of the conflict and
misleading the international community, the Minister of Foreign Affairs
of Azerbaijan did not hesitate to use obvious lies and misinformation.
Across the Caspian in Central Asia, the governments have less at stake
and are more inclined to defer to Russia. Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry
issued a statement saying that, if confirmed, the use of chemical
weapons by the government would be a “crime against humanity.” But
it added, “Kazakhstan calls on the international community to show
restraint and to assess the situation based on the final conclusions
of UN experts.”
In the end, though, Astana will follow Moscow, Daniyar Kosnazarov,
an Almaty-based analyst at the Eurasian Research Institute, told
The Bug Pit: “Kazakhstan’s position or the tone of its statement, if
the intervention will begin, will certainly depend on the Kremlin’s
reaction, which is strongly against any military intervention by the
U.S. However, one should assume that Astana in any case will again
call for the urgent end of the conflict.”
The government of Kyrgyzstan is taking a similar stance, Shairbek
Juraev, a political analyst at the American University of Central Asia,
told The Bug Pit: “The only dimension of this case that is relevant
to us [in Kyrgyzstan] is the fact that the key major international
partners of Kyrgyzstan are on different sides of the debate, with
Russia and China clearly opposing, and U.S. and Turkey clearly ready
to attack. An eventual statement of Kyrgyzstan would most likely come
from its solidarity with some of its international partners. The
approaching [Shanghai Cooperation Organization] summit in Bishkek
may speed up taking a stance.”
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67463