PUTIN’S ARMENIA VISIT ALARMS AZERBAIJAN
Wall Street Pit
Dec 6 2013
By Joshua Kucera Dec 6, 2013, 9:41 AM
Armenians may have been troubled by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s
visit to their country, as it seemed to be an exhibition of Russia’s
tightening grip on Yerevan’s foreign policy. But in Azerbaijan, the
visit occasioned a different sort of fear: that Putin was confirming
Russia’s military support for Armenia in a potential conflict with
Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh.
One military expert in Baku, Uzeyir Cafarov, said that Putin’s support
for Armenia would increase the risk of conflict. “We must be extra
careful regarding the situation on the front line in January and
February. It is possible that local clashes will take place on the
front line. Russia continues to play double games. We must not give
in to this and must bring into Russia’s attention that its position on
the Karabakh conflict is biased,” Cafarov told the newspaper Azadliq,
according to a BBC Monitoring report.
And member of parliament Zahid Oruc told sia.az (also via BBC
Monitoring), “With this visit and by increasing the number of Russian
troops in Armenia, Russia is stimulating the regional arms race
and pushes others to this. This is a threat to the lasting peace in
the region.”
Baku’s concern about the Kremlin’s intentions was piqued earlier
this fall when the commander of the main Russian base in Armenia
told an official Defense Mininstry newspaper that Russia “may join
in the armed conflict” against Azerbaijan if Baku decides to try
to take back Karabakh by force. Moscow’s silence in the face of
strong diplomatic objections by Baku raised the question of whether
the Kremlin really would take such an aggressive position against
Azerbaijan. An interesting piece by Arkady Dubnov in RIA Novosti
argues that Putin’s visit to Armenia was in part intended for him to
get a personal briefing on whether or not the Russian forces in Armenia
were actually capable of carrying out that mission. Dubnov writes:
Now it is known why [Moscow has been silent on that question]: the
Russian commander-in-chief needed first to be personally convinced
that the implementation of the tasks formulated by the commander of
the 102nd base were in the base’s power. The report, given to him by
Colonel Ruzinsky [the base commander], evidently took on this task
and was exhaustive.
The commander especially highlighted the features of the military
component of the base – “the presence of air defense systems, capable
of detecting and defeating air means of attack at all heights.”
By all appearances, the Russian president was convinced by the
report…
Dubnov also suggests that Russia’s recent military overtures toward
Azerbaijan were likely motivated at least in part by a desire to
pressure Yerevan into joining the Customs Union and stop integration
with the European Union. And in that context, this visit to Yerevan
was a message that “yes, we’re on your side.”
However, when Putin was asked about this in a press conference after
his meeting with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, he dodged the
question. Asked by a journalist what Russia would do in the event
that “Azerbaijan’s militaristic statements were to be realised,”
Putin replied:
If you continue to repeat this aloud, then the conditions for achieving
a peaceful settlement will be compromised, and other aspects of the
problem will become preponderant….
In my opinion, to talk hypothetically about what we would do if a war
were to break out is totally counterproductive. It would look as if we
are preparing for war, and we must, as the President of Armenia already
said, ensure that all sensitive issues are resolved exclusively by
political and diplomatic means. We shall continue to work towards this.
Translation: We may be on Armenia’s side, but we’re still hedging
our bets.
http://wallstreetpit.com/101879-putins-armenia-visit-alarms-azerbaijan/