KIEV PREPARES FOR WAR
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
March 18 2014
18 March 2014 – 9:25am
By Vestnik Kavkaza
The interim president of Ukraine, Alexander Turchinov, thinks that
Russia’s activity in Crimea won’t lead to a loss of the peninsula by
Ukraine. Turchinov stated that “Russia has focused a great amount
of troops on our border, and our state is threatened by a war. The
parliament decides to increase military expenditures.” Turchinov
urges the Ukrainians “to unite in the face of a possible aggression”
and “adhere to the general line against the aggressor.”
Russia is defending its national interests not from Ukraine, but from
the USA, according to experts. “Washington’s interests fundamentally
contradict Russian ones,” the Director General of the Russian Institute
for Foreign Policy Studies and Initiatives, Veronika Krasheninnikova,
thinks. “Even though Ukraine or the Caucasus are in ten thousand
miles from the USA, these states are declared to be a territory of
strategic interests of the USA. The current events were directed
against independent Ukraine, against Russia, against integration
processes in the post-Soviet space.”
According to Krasheninnikova, the USA will continue the policy: “We
will see the full spectrum from political means to terrorist attacks
to make Ukraine stay with the West. The approach is aimed at Russia,
it is being tested. Mechanisms of shifting a similar situation to
Russian territory are being discussed. The current methodology differs
from color revolutions of 2003-2005 by presence of a forceful radical
element. And some elements of Arab spring are present in Ukraine as
well. While previous overthrows were peaceful, now it is internecine.
The West, headed by the USA, supports both the liberal part and
ultra-right-wing Nazi part; each of them is playing their own roles.
Maidan began with peaceful protests of pro-Western opposition. When
it didn’t work, militants were involved. The scenario was implemented
in the post-Soviet space for the first time.”
Krasheninnikova reminded that “Western Ukraine is the south border
of Belarus. The West has been dreaming about changing the regime of
Lukashenko for a long time, and now there are favorable conditions
for this. As the activity will be directed against the Customs Union,
we can expect similar attempts against Kazakhstan. Moreover, Armenia
decided to sign and has already signed the agreement on accession
to the CU; however, the agreement must be ratified by the Armenian
parliament. There is big probability that some activities in Armenia
will be organized over the ratification.”
“When President Putin decided to run for president for the third time
and stated that his main foreign political program is establishing of
Eurasian Union, Obama’s administration stated that its final goal is
to prevent Russia’s activity in all directions, prevent establishing of
the Eurasian Union,” Alexei Fenenko, senior scientist of the Institute
of International Security Problems of the RAS, recalls. “The foundation
of the crisis was laid in autumn 2011. We have seen attempts to prevent
it during two years of Putin’s new term, including attempts to prevent
Russian-Uzbek negotiations, attempts to influence Azerbaijan, while
Ukraine became a general scenario.”
According to Fenenko, “the only salvation for Ukraine was a neutral
status of nonalignment policy and rejection of any sharp swing
to this or that side. Too different nations, too different ethnic
groups, too different cultures are united in Ukraine… As Crimea
becomes a constituent of the Russian Federation, there is only one
theoretical salvation for Ukraine – quick federalization. Ukraine
will unlikely exist as a unitary state. All ethnic minorities, all
ethnic borderlands want the only thing – guarantees from Kiev. Thus,
theoretically Ukraine could move toward an enlarged federation which
includes: southeast regions (the Kharkov, Lugansk, Donetsk regions and
probably Kherson region), Central Ukraine, and the Transcarpathian
region. Such Ukraine could be more balanced and more guaranteed by
international agreements. If it doesn’t happen, a scenario of an
uncontrollable dissolution of Ukraine will begin.”