WILL ‘POP MUSIC DIPLOMACY’ DELAY WAR IN A LONG, BITTER AZERBAIJAN-ARMENIA LAND DISPUTE?
Jeff Burbank
Huffington Post
Aug 17, 2011
Azerbaijan is set to host next year’s Eurovision Song Contest, an
American Idol-type show watched by 125 million European TV viewers
this year, when the little-known country was the surprise winner. But
will the expressed willingness of Azerbaijan to let its arch-enemy
Armenia take part in the 2012 competition produce a breakthrough,
where international negotiators and military threats have failed? Will
“pop music diplomacy” postpone a war, thanks to an Armenian singer
named Lucia Moon?
The answer to the first question is probably not, given the
still-heated climate of Azerbaijan-Armenia relations after the failure
of recent internationally-led talks. The Israelis and Palestinians seem
closer to okaying a return to 1967 borders than Azerbaijan and Armenia
— two former Soviet bloc countries — are to settling their dispute
over the mountainous Nagorno-Karabakh, an area the size of Delaware
in the Southern Caucasus neighbored by Georgia, Turkey and Iran.
But the prolific, Los Angeles-based vocalist Moon (see her on
YouTube) or whomever Armenia chooses to represent it for Eurovision
in Azerbaijan’s capital of Baku, would at least represent a partial
thaw, a new step forward, a reason for the two countries that hate
one another to stop and listen, in place of the stalemate and military
buildups over the past 17 years that sometimes result in casualties.
That Azerbaijan signaled in early summer that Armenia might
be allowed to participate in the high-profile, 55-year-old
Eurovision song competition is in itself an unexpected, positive
development. In June, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism
made an incredible statement, given the countries’ mutual animosity:
“Armenian representatives have equal rights with contestants from
other countries in the contest and there are no special problems here.”
Two weeks later, Azerbaijan Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov said
his country was ready to provide security for an Armenian delegation
during the four-day Eurovision contest. But Azimov added that the
guarantee of security for Armenia was simply one of Eurovision’s
terms for Baku to host the event.
The Eurovision opportunity comes at a time of heightened tensions as
the two sides maintain armed forces at the edges of the disputed land.
Some believe that the sides are now preparing for a new war over
Nagorno-Karabakh, following the concerted but doomed diplomatic
efforts this summer, including a special summit organized by Russia
and attempts by the United States and France.
Armenia, insisting on historic claims to the territory before the
Soviet Union took over both Armenia and Azerbaijan after World War I,
gained control in 1994 and still occupies it. The country did so in
defiance of four resolutions by the United Nations Security Council
insisting it withdraw. Its early-1990s war Azerbaijan over the land
resulted in 30,000 deaths and 1 million people displaced, and the
two remain bitter enemies. Of the 188,000 people who live there,
about 75 percent are ethnic Armenian and 25 percent are Azeri.
Armenia has not budged since taking over Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan
is unrelenting its opposition to conceding any territory to Armenia.
Both nations regularly trade spiteful, often petty accusations in
state-sponsored news reports and other media outlets. For example,
Azerbaijan officials this month lodged an objection with Google Maps
after protesting against Microsoft Maps over the use of some Armenian
names for Azerbaijan villages in the disputed region. Armenia’s media
often publishes embarrassing stories involving its rival country and
frequently accuses Azerbaijan of stoking anti-Armenian feelings at
home and abroad.
The fact that next year’s Eurovision will be on Azerbaijan soil is
a new historical twist. Both peoples and governments will have to at
least tolerate one another. Baku will have to keep Armenia’s visitors
safe. Small numbers of Azeris and Armenians have in the past voted
for each other’s Eurovision entries, including one Azeri in 2009 who
was questioned by Azerbaijan authorities, citing “national security,”
about his pro-Armenia vote that year.
Will there be more votes for each other’s countries’ songs this time?
Will more viewers in both nations ignore the Nagorno-Karabakh feud
long enough to consider their rival’s representative performer on
their merits? How will the audience at the live concert in Baku,
presumably mostly Azeris, react to the Armenian’s performances?
Eurovision is an annual, four-day televised event where viewers in
mainly European countries — and eastern places like Azerbaijan and
Armenia, and Israel — watch and vote by phone for their favorite song
among entries from 43 countries. This year, Azerbaijan’s male-female
duo of Ell & Nikki won in host city Dusseldorf, Germany, with a light,
conventional pop song, “Running Scared,” sung in English. Armenia’s
entry, Emma, did not make it past the semi-finals. Italy placed
second, Sweden third. The country with the winning song gets to host
the next Eurovision.
Why did Ell & Nikki of little Azerbaijan, of the far Caucasus region,
win over the likes of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and 38 other
countries? For one thing, they were heavily favored in the voting
by nations bordering or close to Azerbaijan. Russia and Turkey gave
Azerbaijan the maximum 12 first-choice votes each, a significant
factor in Azerbaijan’s song placing first among the 24 finalists.
While I was in Baku in May after the late-night results were in for
Eurovision, scores of Azeris celebrated during impromptu rallies
downtown. As pedestrians or inside cars, they rejoiced loudly,
some waving and even kissing Azeri flags. It added to a string of
good luck for Azerbaijan. The country’s been booming commercially
for years thanks to billions in revenues from state-owned oil and
gas exports to Europe and Russia. Armenia, in contrast, is not as
fortunate. It is comparatively poor and lacks Azerbaijan’s cash-rich
resources. That has added to the rivalry.
What is sure to happen is that in the months leading up to
Eurovision’s live broadcast in Baku next May 22-26 , Azerbaijan’s
at-times repressive regime will have the world’s news media, and the
millions of music fans, focusing on the former Soviet republic. Like
its one-time Communist ruler once did, Azerbaijan clamps down hard on,
and often jails, domestic critics, rights activists and journalists.
The lack of civil liberties that much of Europe takes for granted
won’t make for good public relations for Azerbaijan, even as it
seeks to broaden its appeal among foreign investors, business people
and tourists.
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev may wonder if Eurovision is worth
the pain of the scrutiny from Western media outlets about his rule, his
use of pre-dawn arrests of would-be protesters and of military troops
to quell even the smallest demonstrations by students, social media
activists and opposition party members. Freedom House in 2009 said
that Azerbaijan officials “severely limit press freedom in practice”
and considerable parts of the economy “are controlled by a corrupt
elite.” With a large international news presence, plus an estimated
60,000 expected to attend Eurovision live in Baku, local activists
are banking on drawing attention to their plight.
But perhaps for a four-day period next May, Azerbaijan and its guest
Armenia might enjoy a brief, springtime pause in the harsh rhetoric,
criticism and physical injury that dominates their relationship. In the
months ahead before next May, in anticipation of the big broadcast,
both might think twice about launching another war. Beyond that,
barring a miracle solution, it’s not likely to last.
Jeff Burbank is a California-based author, freelance writer, college
instructor and former Fulbright Scholar in Baku. His views are his
own and are not based on those of the Fulbright program.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeff-burbank/eurovision-armenia-azerbaijan_b_929206.html