RUSSIA TO “CUT MILITARY TRANSPORT CORRIDOR” THROUGH GEORGIA?
By Nikoloz Devdariani
Georgia Today
April 12 2012
Georgia
Recently, the news media was filled with speculation about the
possibility of renewed Russian military action against Georgia. There
have been periods since the 2008 Russia-Georgia war when military
scenarios and Russia’s military warnings have appeared on the web. As
soon as the tensions around Iran’s nuclear program were aggravated,
with US and Israeli sources often pondering military strikes against
Tehran, Moscow’s ally, Russian military officials began to publicly
voice warnings that Russia’s wouldn’t stand idle.
In one of the previous media reports, a map of Tbilisi’s outskirts
was shown on the radar of a new Russian military satellite-controlled
command facility, which was being tested. On other occasions, Russian
officials spoke to the media about Russia’s strategic determination to
use nuclear weapons in certain cases to deal with regional conflicts.
The annual Caucasus military exercises held since 2008 also triggered
concerns.
In March 2012, the Russian newspaper Kommersant, based on an anonymous
Russian Defense Ministry source, suggested that Russia was ready for
a US war against Iran which according to Russian diplomats, would
likely happen before the end of the year. “We have calculated our
actions in case of a war with Iran. For this contingency we have a
plan for mobilization”, said the MOD source back then.
In the case of military escalation in Iran, Russian high-ranking
officers expect an exodus of refugees to Iran’s neighbor Azerbaijan.
The borders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, another of Iran’s northern
neighbors, could be closed, posing a challenge for Russian soldiers
stationed in the 102nd military base in Gyumri, Armenia. There is a
risk that the hardware supplies to this base, now provided by Russia
only through air transfers via Georgian airspace, will be disrupted,
along with the fuel supplies delivered from Iran.
In December last year, in an interview with Nezavisimaia Gazeta,
Russian General-Lieutenant Netkachov, formerly deputy commander of
Russia’s troops in the South Caucasus, assured that in the case where
there is a disruption of supplies, Russian forces “will have to break
Georgia’s transport blockade and provide transport corridor leading
to Armenia via military means”.
According to Pavel Felgenhauer, a Russian military analyst with close
contact with the Russian defense establishment, “the geography of the
region implies that any such “corridor” may go through the Georgian
capital of Tbilisi”. Russian direct military assistance to Tehran is
also not excluded.
Georgia, Russian officers believe, will ally with the US in the
military standoff with Iran and further blockade Russian reach to
Armenia; proof of which they claim is the recent annulment by Tbilisi
of the agreement on “open sky”. Georgian military experts stress
that this later decision by the Georgian government makes Russia’s
strategic partnership with Armenia very costly. Dmitry Rogozin, Vice
Prime Minister of Russia, a fervent anti-western, formerly Russian
envoy to NATO, warned against an attack on Iran which, as he put it,
“is a direct threat to Russia’s security”.
Nezavisimaia Gazeta sources say Russians have started the contingency
planning for this scenario two years ago. There are several signs
that have alarm bells ringing among pundits.
First, for September, Russia planned the military drills Caucasus
2012 which many have directly linked with the possible US/Israeli
war against Iran or other conflicts in the Caspian or South Caucasus
region. Second, unlike the Caucasus 2008 which set the scene for the
invasion of Georgia, this exercise is planned on the strategic level
rather than operational-tactical as well as being joint, that is,
involving all types of forces and services of the Defense Ministry
but also other paramilitary state forces. This means the drills are
tailored for operations on a larger scale.
Thirdly and as part of the second point, the drills will reportedly
involve Russian troops deployed on the 7th military base in the
occupied region of Abkhazia and the 4th base in the occupied South
Ossetia, as well as the Gyumri military base in Armenia. The bases
on Georgian soil are part of the Russian so-called South Military
District.
Felgenhauer, who has previously warned of a war before 2008 and
did the same soon after it, has argued the danger is real, giving
a detailed account of Russian preparations. For example, additional
units like modern command and control vehicles and air defense systems
with the range of the entire South Caucasus region have been deployed
in the North Caucasus. The air force in the South Military District
(SMD) has been strengthened with new jets and helicopters, while all
units have been furnished with new armed vehicles. The media also
reported that last year, Russia’s base in Armenia was upgraded while
the families of Russian servants had been evacuated to Russia.
At the same time, Russian bases in Abkhazia and South Ossetia have
been put on alert. Furthermore, as the Iranian news agency reports,
Russia has deployed guided anti-ship missiles in the Caspian, and
offensive spearhead forces heavily armed with modern long-range
weapons, all aimed to strike preventively against the probable US
basement in the South Caucasus in the run up to the Iran war.
So, will the Russians really cut a transport corridor through Georgia
or even attempt to take Tbilisi? It is hard to predict. On the one
hand, there are reasons why they could really do so. There is a
consensus among Russian militaries that maintaining the Gyumri base
is too important strategically for them and since there is no other
way to reach the landlocked Armenia other than via Georgia, linking up
its troops in South Ossetia with those in Armenia via Georgia could be
a real possibility. Putin, notorious for his contempt for Georgia’s
independence, is back in the Kremlin and pundits in the West have
started to talk about Putin giving orders to invade Georgia as he
did in 2008.
However, there are also good reasons why this would not happen. Unlike
2008, there are now about 200 EU monitors closely observing the
situation around the occupied territory which the international
community can use as a verification tool. Hence, Russia would have a
hard time finding a casus belli. Politicians and bureaucrats in the
West are also more critical towards Russia now that they know Moscow’s
real motives. This could bring more pressure on Russia. In fact,
it could have been due to such pressure that at the latest round of
Geneva talks, Russian envoy Grigory Karasin downplayed the importance
of the Caucasus 2012 drills, saying no troops beyond Russian territory
would participate.
Even if the Russian top military brass have prepared a contingency
plan which is by the way a routine task of military staffs, Russian
politicians may not be that eager to repeat what they did so costly
four years ago. And finally, a big question is whether the US will
indeed go on war with Iran.
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