Author: Kalashian Nyrie

Journal of Turkish Weekly, Turkey
March 26 2007

Iran’s chances are getting slimmer for controlling future energy markets

by Ahmet Türker

Sunday , 25 March 2007

The troubles surrounding Iran is not ending. With mass reserves of
gas and oil, the ambition to develop nuclear technology is leaving
the Iranian industry handcuffed. While Iran is following the
footsteps of North Korea, Russia is using the gas to build an energy
empire.

Iran is currently only exporting gas to Turkey. Although not
officially accepted, most of the business circles in Turkey is
claiming that Iranian gas is not the most economical one. In terms of
energy security, it is far away from being reliable.

Iran has the world’s second biggest gas reserves. But because of
years of underinvestment and growing domestic consumption only a
fraction of the gas production is to be exported. During peak
consumption periods, as in the winter times, the reliability of
supply becomes a headache for Turkey.

The importance of Iranian gas lies in its importance of being an
alternative to Russian gas. But due to international sanctions and
growing international problems, Iran is finding it hard to attract
foreign investors. With the latest sanctions and the crises resulted
with the seizure of 15 British soldiers, the road ahead for Iran is
rather dimmed.

In this doomed times, Iran may be losing its only gas customer Turkey
and future customers. Although Iran has started the construction of a
Armenia-Iran pipeline, the Armenian side which has also suffered from
lack of investment, is rumoured to have lost the full control of
pipeline after a discount from Gasprom for 2007.

Turkey on the other hand has already tighting her schedule for LNG
exportations to backup unreliable Iranian gas supply. During the
winter, Iran is diverting the gas to its domestic market. This is
harming the Turkish-Iranian relations and Turkey’s perception of Iran
as a reliable and secure supplier.

Turkey-Iran gas relations have received another blow from US Senate.
According to Turkish Daily news, during the hearings Senator Jack
Reed asked the Undersecretary of State Nick Burns whether Turkey is
`still’ buying gas directly from Iran. After Burns said he believed
so, Reed then requestioned whether US involved in an effort to
persuade `our NATO ally not to do that’

Burns also said : `A number of our allies -Turkey is a prominent one-
a partner like India is another – have long term oil and gas
relationships [with Iran] and we are trying to suggest that there are
alternatives for the future.’.

The alternative routes, Burns mentioned is either Azerbaijan or LNG
market. Last year Turkey has exported 5.7 billion cubic meters(bcm)
of gas from Iran and 4.2 billion cubic meters of gas from Algeria. In
the first two monts of 2007, Turkey has exported a total of 6.65 bcm
of gas, where Russia has the lion’s share with around 4.4 bcm where
Algeria has 0.817 bcm and Iran has 0.84 bcm.

Azerbaijan gas however will be a good but not very sufficient
alternative. Therefore Turkey is expected to increase her interest in
the southern pipeline extension from Egypt-Syria pipeline. This route
will be advantegous due to different peak periods rather than
parallel peaks as happening in Iran.

With the seizure of British soldiers, Iranian tension is expected to
continue. The Iranian politicians firm belief in the exceptionality
of Iran is harming the relations with Iran. But the road ahead is not
bright for Iran.

There are several factors affecting Turkey’s decision to undermine
Iranian gas. Iranian unreliability in gas supply every winter,
Iranian-Armenian gas pipeline and growing underinvestment coupled
with growing domestic consumption are all factors dimming Turkey’s
outlook to Iran.

After some years, Iranian will look back and see what they have lost.
It is not because American’s asked it, but due to their own
understanding of playing political games. Although Iran will still
have the same second biggest gas reserves of the world even 5 years
from now on, the diplomacy and market side might be more under the
influence of Russia and LNG exporting countries. Then, Iran’s only
option could be to leave the development and operation of her gas
fields to foreign giants to compete in an energy market of
monopolists.
Ahmet Türker, USAK Energy Review

This commentary is from USAK’s Energy Review Newsletter

The Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin will not participate in the opening of
the Akhtamar Church

ArmRadio.am
27.03.2007 11:26

Through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs the Catholicos of All
Armenians Garegin II received an invitation from the Governor of Van
Mehmet Niyaz Tanilir to participate in the opening ceremony of the
Church of the Holy Cross on Akhtamar Island on March 29.

Taking into consideration that the Church of the Holy Cross renovated
by the Turkish authorities will be turned into a museum and will not
operate as a church under the aegis of the Armenian Patriarchate of
Constantinople, and the opening ceremony will be held as a secular
procedure and not in compliance with the ritual of the Armenian
Apostolic Church, the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin will not
participate in the opening ceremony.

This action of the Turkish authorities directed against the Christian
feelings of the Armenian people cannot be conceived as a positive step
on the way of rapprochement between the Armenian and Turkish peoples,
especially in the context of the common aspiration for a dialogue
between cultures and religions.

Armenian clerics refuse to attend church opening in Turkey

Mediamax news agency
27 Mar 07

Yerevan, 27 March: The Holy See of Echmiadzin said today that
representatives of the Armenian Apostolic Church (AAC) will not take
part in the opening ceremony of the Surb Khach Church in Turkey (Lake
Van, Akhtamar Island), planned for 29 March.

The main reason for this decision is the fact that "the church,
restored by the Turkish authorities, will be turned into a museum and
will not be functioning as a church under the religious sacred
authority of the Armenian Patriarchy of Constantinople", the press
service of Holy Echmiadzin told Mediamax today. The press service of
Holy Echmiadzin also said that the ceremony will bear a particularly
secular character, and according to the canons of the AAC, Holy
Echmiadzin will not participate in it.

"This action of the Turkish authorities, directed against the
Christian feelings of the Armenian people, cannot be perceived as a
positive step along the path to mutual rapprochement of the Armenian
and Turkish peoples, especially in the context of the general striving
for cooperation of nations, the dialogue of religions and cultures,"
the press service of Holy Echmiadzin said.

The invitation to take part in the opening ceremony of the Surb Khach
Church, sent by the governor of Van, was handed to the head of the
AAC, Catholicos Garegin II, through the Armenian Foreign Ministry.

ARMENIAN CATHOLICOSATE OF GREAT HOUSE OF CILICIA NOT TO PARTICIPATE IN
RE-OPENING CEREMONY OF SURB KHACH CHURCH

ANTELIAS, MARCH 27, NOYAN TAPAN – ARMENIANS TODAY. The delegation of
the Armenian Catholicosate of the Great House of Cilicia will not
participate in the re-opening ceremony of Aghtamar’s Surb Khach Church
on May 29. As reported from Antelias, the reason is Turkey’s policy of
denial of the Armenian Genocide.

RA PRIME MINISTER’S DEATH CAUSED BY VIOLATION OF BLOOD CIRCULATION OF
CORONARY ARTERIES OF HEART

YEREVAN, MARCH 26, NOYAN TAPAN. According to the conclusion of the
commission having made forensic examination, Prime Minister Andranik
Margarian’s death was caused by sudden heart stop due to violation of
blood circulation of coronary arteries of heart. Noyan Tapan was
informed about it from RA government Information and Public Relations
Department.

PanARMENIAN.Net

Armenian Genocide Resolution is one of methods for
U.S. to exert pressure on Turkey
24.03.2007 13:29 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The issue of Resolution 106 on
recognizing the Armenian Genocide by the U.S. Congress
is too politicized, Director of the Armenian Genocide
Institute Hayk Demoyan told a press conference in
Yerevan. Answering the question of PanARMENIAN.Net
journalist Hayk Demoyan underlined that the U.S.
President in his April 24 annual address somehow or
other touches upon `massacres’. If the United States
does not recognize the Armenian Genocide it means they
must review their own history. In 1917 thousands of
Armenians were saved by American missions from
massacres, deportation and hunger, and this fact is
fixed in all official documents,’ the Armenian
historian underlined. In his opinion the Resolution
106 is one more method to exert pressure on Turkey.

Nagornyy Karabakh leader calls for mutual trust in settling Karabakh conflict

Arminfo
23 Mar 07

Yerevan, 23 March: Only in the atmosphere of mutual trust can the
Nagornyy Karabakh [NKR] conflict be settled, NKR president Arkadi
Ghukasyan told journalists today following his meeting with EU envoy
to the South Caucasus Peter Semneby.

Regretting the absence of the atmosphere of mutual trust between the
sides and the ongoing hostile propaganda by Azerbaijan, Ghukasyan
added: "I am confident that the NKR issue can be settled only in the
atmosphere of mutual trust. We do not have this yet." According to the
NKR president, it is difficult to call current statements made by the
Azerbaijani side constructive.

The NKR president also said that it was impossible to create this
atmosphere in the coming months. In reply to a question as to what
progress the republic made in terms of settling conflict during his
presidency, Arkadi Ghukasyan said that there was some progress. "I
cannot say that this is an ideal option for us, but there is some
progress," Ghuksyan said. Answering a question as to what points
Armenia and Azerbaijan cannot agree on, Ghukasyan said that there are
several of them.

"It is the issue of the status, the referendum and territories," he
said and added that in general there was not a single issue which has
been completely resolved. In the meantime, he recalled that some
territories of the NKR were currently under Azerbaijan’s jurisdiction.

Dwelling on the recent human rights report on Armenia by the US
Department of State, in which the NKR is mentioned as an occupied
territory, Ghukasyan said that he considered the statement illogical
and not based on the processes which had taken place over the past
years.

TURKEY’S DISSIDENT INTELLECTUALS GROW ACCUSTOMED TO LIFE WITH BODYGUARDS
Nicholas Birch

EurasiaNet, NY
March 22 2007

Waving a yellow press card usually opens doors in Turkey. It didn~Aft
impress the police officer guarding the entrance to Agos, the
Turkish-Armenian newspaper run by Hrant Dink until a 17-year-old
Turkish nationalist gunned him down in January as he stepped outside.

"Who are you working for," the officer asked suspiciously. "Who do
you want to talk to?"

Like the closed-circuit camera set up last month to survey the patch
of Istanbul street where Dink died, the officer~Afs questions
underscore the heightened sense of insecurity facing dissidents in
Turkey today. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. A
well-known columnist who took over as editor of Agos after his
friend~Afs death, Etyen Mahcupyan has been receiving threats for as
long as he can remember.

"It~Afs like a side dish," he says. "You are so accustomed to it that
when the threats go down, you ask what is happening. And that~Afs why
the murder was a real shock. Because you have so many threats every
day and nothing happens."

Hrant Dink~Afs death was a turning point for Atilla Yayla, too. An
Ankara-based political scientist, his nightmare began last November
when he adopted a position during a public conference that the
single-party regime set up by Turkey~Afs founder Kemal Ataturk was "a
period of regression, not progress."

Turkish media outlets branded him a traitor. His university removed
him from his teaching position for four months. Last week, a
prosecutor opened a case against him for "insulting the legacy of
Ataturk." He faces up to three years in jail.

"For five days, I couldn~Aft sleep," Yayla remembers, comparing the
media campaign against him to "the Moscow courts in Stalin~Afs time."

The stress eventually overwhelmed him. "I collapsed physically," he
said. It wasn~Aft until after Dink~Afs death, though, that he began to
take the death threats he was receiving seriously. Now, like more
than a dozen other Turkish dissidents, he shares his life with a
police bodyguard. "He is so much a part of me that I~Afm planning to
buy him and his family presents," Yayla commented wryly.

Other Turkish intellectuals find it much less easy to laugh at the
new climate of fear. One of the most prominent of 50 people taken to
court by ultra-nationalists last year on charges of "insulting
Turkishness," best-selling novelist Elif Safak has now given up
writing columns in two newspapers and keeps trips outside her house
to a minimum. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Dink "was a close friend, and I haven~Aft got over the shock of his
death," she said in a telephone conversation. She declined to talk at
length.

Interviewed by daily Hurriyet in February, her husband Eyup Can said
she was so upset that she was no longer able to breast-feed her
six-month-old daughter.

Orhan Pamuk, meanwhile, the novelist who won last year~Afs Nobel Prize
for literature, left Turkey under police escort in February,
declaring himself "furious at everyone and everything." [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. A week before, the man
police believe organized Hrant Dink~Afs murder had warned him to
"watch your step" as he was taken into custody.

When well over 100,000 people attended Dink~Afs funeral procession
late in January, many hoped his death might mark the end of what one
columnist called "the ultra-nationalist tsunami" that has swept
Turkey since its European Union bid started. [For background see the
Eurasia Insight archive]. In fact the protest, and the protestors~Af
choice of the slogan "we are all Armenians," stirred up nationalist
ire further. A key demand made by the protesters — that the law
criminalizing insults to "Turkishness" should be repealed ~Aã has
failed to make an impact on legislators.

Despite the risks they face, many Turkish dissidents say they have no
intention of giving up the struggle. "Such a thing has happened, you
know, that you cannot be cautious any more," says Mahcupyan, the new
Agos editor. "It~Afs immoral to be cautious."

Like Mahcupyan, who says you can only tell the real threats from the
false ones after it~Afs too late, Baskin Oran knows his bodyguard will
not be able to stop a professional assassination attempt. "This nice
person is protecting me from amateur killers, like the one who killed
Hrant," said Oran, an Ankara-based political scientist who
co-authored a 2004 government report on minority rights that sparked
today~Afs nationalist surge.

He goes on to quote the Turkish proverb that he who fears birds
doesn~Aft plant corn. "If you are afraid, you should stop. But how can
I look into the mirror in the morning if I do stop? How can I lecture
my students?"

Today~Afs threats and restrictions on freedom of movement, he says,
are part of the growing pains of Turkish democracy. "The road to
paradise passes by hell, and we are walking."

Editor’s Note: Nicolas Birch specializes in Turkey, Iran and the
Middle East.

–Boundary_(ID_BP2fEoBRtwnRU+kw40hlJg)–

GLOBAL GOLD MINING CONSIDERS AS POSSIBLE RETURN OF ITS LICENSE DURING EXAMINATION OF INTERNATIONAL COURT

Noyan Tapan
Mar 22 2007

YEREVAN, MARCH 22, NOYAN TAPAN. Global Gold Mining company (US)
initiated a arbritration lawsuit against the Armenian government
at the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes
(ICSID). King & Spalding juridical company (UK) will represent the
US company’s interests at the trial. Ken Fleuriet, representative of
King & Spalding, told NT that Global Gold Mining accuses the Armenian
government of violation of the bilateral Armenian-US investment
agreement: Global Gold Mining was ahead of time deprived of its license
to do extraction in some Armenian mines. According to the lawyer,
this was the behavior of the RA Ministry of Nature Protection after
the company rejected the minister Vardan Aivazian’s demand to give
a bribe. Ken Fleuriet said that according to their information, at
present the RA Ministry of Nature Protection is conducting negotiations
with another company on the issue of providing Global Gold Mining’s
license to this comapny. He did not mention the name of this company,
just saying that it operates in Georgia. He did not rule out that
court may suspend the Armenian government’s decisions, according to
which Global Gold Mining was deprived of license. However, the court
instance has not been formed yet and the court examination may start
in one-two months.

Ken Fleuriet noted that the examination of the lawsuit may last up
to two years.

ICSID is a special body adjunct to the World Bank. In response to
the question why Global Gold Mining did not dispute the Armenian
government’s decisions in an Armenian court, Ken Fleuriet said that
the agreement violated by the Armenian government falls under the
jurisdiction of the ICSID and not an Armenian body.

OPENING CEREMONY OF "YEREVAN" TRADE CENTER TO TAKE PLACE IN MOSCOW ON MARCH 24

Noyan Tapan
Mar 21 2007

YEREVAN, MARCH 21, NOYAN TAPAN. A delegation headed by Mayor of Yerevan
Yervand Zakarian will leave for Moscow on March 24. NT correspondent
was informed at the Information and PR Department of Yerevan Mayor’s
Office that the official ceremony of opening the "Yerevan" trade center
will take place in Moscow on the same day with the participation of
the mayors of the two cities.

On March 25 Y. Zakarian will go on an official visit to Saint
Petersburg by the invitation of Governor of Saint Petersburg Valentina
Matvienko. During the visit, a bilateral meeting will be held,
during which the sides will discuss a number of problems related to
cooperation of Yerevan and Saint Petesburg.

It is enviasged to sign the 2007-2009 program of cooperation between
Yerevan and Saint Petersburg.