EUROPEAN ANALYST SAYS SUSPENSION OF EU NEGOTIATIONS UNLIKELY
Today’s Zaman
08 July 2009, Wednesday
Turkey’s EU bid would progress more easily if talks between Turkish
Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat and Greek Cypriot leader Dimitris
Christofias lead to a settlement, according to Chislett.
Turkey will face a "crunch point" in December as its status
is reviewed in the upcoming European Union summit evaluating the
country’s membership, but a suspension of negotiations is not likely,
a European analyst has said.
William Chislett, a former Financial Times journalist who has written
extensively on Spain and Turkey for the Elcano Royal Institute,
Spain’s leading think tank, stated in his recent report, "Turkey’s
EU Accession Reaches an Impasse," that talk of the suspension due to
Turkey’s failure to open its ports and airports to Greek Cypriot ships
and aircraft is "most unlikely" because it would require a unanimous
vote by all 27 EU countries. "Several of the big EU nations, such as
the UK and Spain, would not be prepared to go so far," he wrote.
In the best-case scenario, probably the most likely, he added, Turkey
would be warned about the consequences of not meeting its obligations
and given more time as both the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot
presidents are negotiating about the reunification of the island.
"A successful conclusion to these negotiations could lead to another
referendum in 2010 on the issue, and a ‘yes’ vote on both sides
would undoubtedly make it much easier for [Turkish Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip] Erdoðan to implement the protocol," he stated. If this
happens, the eight chapters blocked by the European Commission as of
December 2006 would be opened, he added. In 2006, the EU suspended
negotiations on eight chapters due to Turkey’s refusal to open
its ports and airports to traffic from Greek Cyprus. The relations
further soured in the run-up to the European Parliament elections in
June when conservative and far-right politicians gained strength in
their opposition to Turkey’s membership. Chislett noted that French
President Nicolas Sarkozy, backed by the German Chancellor Angela
Merkel wants Turkey to have a privileged partnership with the EU.
"The partnership idea, which has never been fully spelled out and
is rejected by Turkey, may gain momentum as a result of the greater
share of seats in the European Parliament won by extreme right-wing
parties in June’s European elections," he pointed out. "It is assumed
that under a partnership deal Turkey would be integrated in European
defense, security and foreign policy mechanisms, with eventual full
membership in the relevant decision-making bodies."
However, Chislett stated as a member of NATO Turkey has already spent
57 years defending Europe and stated that it doesn’t offer Turkey
any privileges. "A privileged partnership offers no new privileges
to Turkey and by excluding it from decision-making enforces the
growing feeling in Turkey that the most the country can expect is to
be treated as a second-class European citizen because it is poor,
large and Muslim." He also noted that Turkey has already spent 46
years in the "EU’s anteroom," since becoming an associate member
of the then European Economic Community in 1963. "Failure to make
Turkey a full member, assuming it meets all the criteria one day,
like all other countries that have negotiated their membership,
would also erode the EU’s credibility by showing to the world that
it does not keep its word. The basic principle of Roman law -pacta
sunt servanda (agreements must be kept)- is part of the European
cultural heritage." ‘Ergenekon case: historic opportunity’ In
his 32-page report Chislett explores such issues as politics, the
reform process, the results of March’s local elections, relations
with Armenia, the Kurdish issue, Turkey’s foreign policy, economy,
and the trial of Ergenekon, which is accused of fomenting chaos to
trigger a coup to overthrow the government. "This case represents
an historic opportunity to confront what is known in Turkey as the
‘deep state,’ a state within a state, and assert civilian control
over the army," he stated. He also evaluated Erdoðan’s ruling Justice
and Development Party (AK Party), which has adopted a much slower
pace of reform compared to its reformist first three years after it
won the 2002 general election. "Once accession negotiations began
in earnest, after October 2005, and the economic and political cost
of EU reforms began to be felt, the AK Party’s initial enthusiasm
waned, sapped, to some extent, by the anti-membership statements
coming out of Paris and Berlin and a feeling that however hard it
might try, the door would never be opened." As another reason that
may have influenced the AK Party’s stagnancy in adopting reforms,
he brought up the European Court of Human Rights’ decision in 2005
to uphold Turkey’s ban on headscarves on university campuses. "It
is said to have marked a turning point for Erdoðan [whose wife wears
the headscarf] as he had hoped a favorable ruling would have enabled
him to relax the rigidly secular norms and usher in more personal
religious freedom in the public space." He also noted that support
for the EU in Turkey is declining, from as much as 71 percent in 2004
down to 42 percent in 2008 according to Eurobarometer surveys. The
full report is available at the Web site of the Elcano Royal Institute.