Author: Kalantarian Kevo

Oligarchs Must Share Their Profit

Story from Lragir.am News:

Published: 10:25:09 – 24/08/2012

Former Prime Minister of Armenia, Member of Parliament Hrant
Bagratyan, ANC, shared his plans with the public on Facebook.

The first on his checklist is to boost minimum salary from 32,500 to
72,500. Second, royalty for metal ore producing enterprises is set
profitability divided by 8. In other words, 1/8 of an X profit of an
enterprise goes to the budget, the remaining 7/8 goes to the pocket of
oligarchs. In this stage, Bagratyan proposes to at least divide the
profit between the society and the oligarchs, which is a partial
solution though. Meanwhile, in general the state should announce the
annual price of 1 ton of any kind of ore in Armenia.

According to Bagratyan, the business of the National Assembly is
planned badly. He says it looks like a ministry rather than a
parliament. There are MPs who have more than one office. Those who can
afford change the old windows of their offices at their expense, while
those who cannot afford do not. They may sign something and refuse to
implement it.

Aram I, MECC discuss humanitarian assistance to Syrian Armenians

August 24, 2012 – 12:59 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – His Holiness Aram I, Catholicos of the Great House
of Cilicia and one of the Presidents of the Middle East Council of
Churches (MECC), chaired an emergency meeting of the Council which
focused on humanitarian assistance to refugees and displaced people in
Syria.

Until recently, the MECC’s program operated out of Damascus. Given the
deteriorating situation in the country, the presidents decided to
decentralize the operation and create new centers for humanitarian aid
in Aleppo, Homs, Latakia and Kamishli.

They also decided that they would ask other ecumenical organizations
in the country to continue their activity, but in coordination with
the local churches.

The second issue on the agenda was the nomination of a new general secretary.

Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Aug 23 2012

Armenian Deputy Minister of Finance: Armenian economy is more
diversified than before crisis

The Armenian economy is today more diversified than it was before
theworld financial crisis, Deputy Minister of Finance VardanAramyan
said, ARKA reports.He noted that before the crisis some of the
capitalconstruction in the economic growth was too high, but now it
yields tothe more important sectors of agriculture and industry.In
January-July 2012, compared to the same period in 2011, economic
activity in Armenia increased by 7.7%. According to the Ministry
ofFinance, this is connected to the growth in industry (13.4%)
andagriculture (10.2%). In addition, exports increased by 13%.He
acknowledged the growth of poverty in the country, noting,
however,that it is lower than often represented. He also mentioned the
growthof salaries in the private sector and the decline of
unemployment,although he did not mention the sources of this
data.According to the World Bank, the level of poverty in Armenia is
35%compared to 23% in 2010. According to the budget, Armenian GDP in
2012 should grow by4.2%.

Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Aug 23 2012

Fitch: Armenian external debt weakens its resistance capacity

The current account deficit (CAD) of Armenia narrowed to 11% of GDP in
2011, but was still the second largest in Emerging Europe and the
third widest among ‘BB’ rated sovereigns, Fitch Ratings said on
Thursday, Trend reports.

“It is well above its pre-crisis level. Slowing growth in export
earnings, linked to falling metals prices, will limit further progress
in 2012,” the agency’s experts believe.

According to Fitch Ratings, with only half of the CAD financed by
foreign direct investment, the remainder is financed by external
borrowing, pushing up net external indebtedness.

According to the report, public debt may stabilise at around 45% of
GDP. However, this ratio is unusually sensitive to exchange rate
movements, given that 84% of public debt is in foreign currency,
mainly from multilateral lenders.

Armenia will start to make net repayments to the IMF in 2013. CBA and
government repayments to the IMF are to peak in 2013 at USD279m (2.6%
of forecast GDP or one-sixth of CBA reserves). Reserves will therefore
stay flat or decline. Fitch expects the government to seek a successor
agreement to the Extended Fund Facility/Extended Credit Facility
expiring in June 2013. The government expects to refinance its direct
obligations to the Fund from multilateral sources.

“Armenia’s ability to absorb further external shocks is weaker than in
2008, as government and external debt have multiplied. Pressure on
reserves or the dram – following an external shock – would lead to
negative rating action. Any shortfall in capital inflows would
increase risks of currency devaluation,” the agency believes.

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Armenia’s Long-term foreign and local
currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at ‘BB-‘. The Outlook on the
Long-term IDRs is Stable. At the same time, Fitch has affirmed the
Short-term foreign currency IDR at ‘B’ and Country Ceiling at ‘BB’.

Syrian army recaptures Aleppo’s three Christian areas

August 23, 2012 – 21:39 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – The Syrian army has recaptured Christian areas in
the city of Aleppo after heavy fighting with rebels, leaving streets
desolated and deserted apart from local youths on patrol, residents
said on Thursday, Aug. 23.

“We have had the worst two days of our lives,” Sonia, the wife of a
wealthy businessman in the northern city which is also Syria’s
commercial capital, said.

“If our house weren’t built like a fortress, we’d all be dead. The
entrance is very badly damaged. We couldn’t sleep all night,” said the
resident of Telal, which the army seized on Wednesday along with
Jdeide and Sulamaniyeh. Aleppo residents reported heavy exchanges in
the heart of the city during the army’s offensive to recapture the
three neighbourhoods seized by the rebels at the weekend.

Of the three Christian quarters in the historic Old City of Aleppo,
Jdeide and Telal were once frequented by tourists for their
restaurants and handicraft shops.

The rebel Free Syrian Army had also seized the nearby neighborhood of
Sulamaniyeh, most of whose inhabitants are Armenian Christians and
which is home to ancient monasteries and a Melkite Greek Catholic
cathedral.

The bishop of the cathedral on Farhat Square, left pockmarked by the
fighting, himself had to beat a hasty retreat before the rebels moved
in because of his pro-regime comments, another resident said,
according to AFP.

Tycoon Asil Nadir jailed for 10 years for theft

August 23, 2012 – 16:01 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – Former fugitive tycoon Asil Nadir has been jailed
for a total of 10 years for stealing £29m ($46m) from his Polly Peck
business empire 20 years ago, according to BBC News.

Nadir, 71, stole from Polly Peck International (PPI), a major UK
company until 1990 when it collapsed after a Serious Fraud Office
investigation.

He fled the UK in 1993 while awaiting trial, but returned in 2010.

His wife, Nur, said outside court: “My husband is innocent.” She said:
“Having great faith in the British legal justice system we will
continue to try to rectify the wrongs.”

The trial at the Old Bailey ended on Wednesday, Aug 22 when Nadir was
acquitted of three of the 13 sample charges.

He was sentenced to five years for each of seven of the thefts – two
years less than the maximum – and five years for the other three but
the judge, Justice Holroyde, decided those terms should be
consecutive.

He said Nadir would be eligible for release after serving half his sentence.

Nadir is expected to return to Belmarsh prison in south east London,
where he has been remanded in custody since Monday, but is set to
serve his sentence elsewhere.

In his sentencing remarks, the judge said Nadir had “outstanding
business skills” and brought employment and financial benefit to many
people around the world.

But Justice Holroyde said “You were a wealthy man who stole out of pure greed”.

Fitch affirms Armenia at ‘BB-‘; Outlook stable

tert.am
18:14 – 23.08.12

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Armenia’s Long-term foreign and local
currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at ‘BB-‘. The Outlook on the
Long-term IDRs is Stable. At the same time, Fitch has affirmed the
Short-term foreign currency IDR at ‘B’ and Country Ceiling at ‘BB,’
Reuters reports.

The rating affirmation reflects the fact that Armenia is gradually
reducing its fiscal and external imbalances. The government narrowed
the fiscal deficit to 2.8% of GDP in 2011, from 5% of GDP in 2010,
through tax collection improvements, revenue surprises and spending
restraint. The fiscal deficit is converging on the medium term target
of 2% of GDP, although not all supporting measures have been spelled
out. This would allow public debt to stabilise at around 45% of GDP.
However, this ratio is unusually sensitive to exchange rate movements,
given that 84% of public debt is in foreign currency, mainly from
multilateral lenders. External and fiscal sustainability are therefore
closely linked.

Real GDP grew 4.6% in 2011, driven by consumption and exports, and a
rebound in agriculture. Fitch expects growth of around 4% in 2012-14,
with risks to the upside in 2012. Mining production could outperform,
but exposure to metals prices and the Russian economy are sources of
vulnerability. Improvements in the investment climate would lead to
more rapid growth in the medium-term.
External finances are a weakness relative to peers. The current
account deficit (CAD) narrowed to 11% of GDP in 2011, but was still
the second largest in Emerging Europe and the third widest among ‘BB’
rated sovereigns. It is well above its pre-crisis level. Slowing
growth in export earnings, linked to falling metals prices, will limit
further progress in 2012. With only half of the CAD financed by
foreign direct investment, the remainder is financed by external
borrowing, pushing up net external indebtedness.

The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) allowed greater exchange rate
flexibility in H112 during a lull in foreign exchange earnings. The
size of its interventions has declined although it has been a net
seller of foreign exchange in 2011-2012.

Armenia will start to make net repayments to the IMF in 2013. CBA and
government repayments to the IMF are to peak in 2013 at USD279m (2.6%
of forecast GDP or one-sixth of CBA reserves). Reserves will therefore
stay flat or decline. Fitch expects the government to seek a successor
agreement to the Extended Fund Facility/Extended Credit Facility
expiring in June 2013. The government expects to refinance its direct
obligations to the Fund from multilateral sources.

Armenia’s ability to absorb further external shocks is weaker than in
2008, as government and external debt have multiplied.

Pressure on reserves or the dram – following an external shock – would
lead to negative rating action. Any shortfall in capital inflows would
increase risks of currency devaluation. A lower CAD, lower
dollarization and more buoyant reserves would be positive for the
ratings.

Further progress in reducing the fiscal deficit, preferably via tax
collection improvements rather than spending restraint, would help
bolster creditworthiness. While government debt service ratios are
still low, funding costs will rise over the medium-term, increasing
the importance of stabilising or reducing public debt. Pension reform
in 2014, though a net fiscal cost in the short term, could help
develop local capital markets and reduce reliance on external and bank
borrowing.

Fitch has previously highlighted the relative strengths of Armenia’s
banking system. However, real bank lending growth was the fastest in
Emerging Europe in 2011 at 25%, and the second fastest among ‘BB’
rated sovereigns, raising some macro-prudential concerns. Rapid growth
has continued in 2012, with lending to corporates and in foreign
currency the main growth areas. Risks to sovereign creditworthiness
are mitigated by banks’ loss absorption capacity, in the shape of high
capital adequacy ratios, and the relatively small size of the banking
system.

Policy continuity is the most likely outcome of presidential elections
in February 2013. Fitch believes President Serzh Sargsyan is likely to
win a second term, assuming he stands again. The improved conduct of
parliamentary elections in May 2012, which gave the ruling Republican
Party an enhanced majority, suggests that the result will be broadly
accepted, averting the risk of a disputed result and violence, as seen
in 2008.

Political unrest, triggered by a disputed presidential election in
February 2013, or worsening tensions with Azerbaijan surrounding
Nagorno-Karabakh – neither of which are part of Fitch’s core forecast
– could lead to negative rating action.

Travel.ru: Interest in Nagorno-Karabakh Republic grows at a record pace

ARMINFO
Thursday, August 23, 19:58

Nagorno-Karabakh has gained its independence, the official website
of the Travel.ru company (Russia) says.

The source says that the interest in the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is
growing at a record pace. After a long conflict with Azerbaijan, the
NKR has gained its independence and at the moment it has its own
government, army and laws. The only road to the NKR passes via
Armenia. The citizens of Russia need no visa, all the necessary
documents are filled in when entering Nagorno-Karabakh, the website
says. At the same time, Travel.ru warns that after visiting the NKR,
the tourists may have problems with entry to Azerbaijan, as the Azeri
Government declares the people visiting Karabakh personas non grata.

To note, this article has caused a wide response in Azerbaijan. The
Azeri mass media report that the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry
Spokesman Elman Abdullayev instructed the Azerbaijani Embassy in
Moscow to inquire into this publication on Travel.ru.

ACYPL selects Ardashes Kassakhian for Africa exchange program

August 23, 2012 – 12:28 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – The American Council of Young Political Leaders
(ACYPL) has invited City Clerk Ardashes `Ardy’ Kassakhian to
participate in an international exchange program to South Africa and
Namibia this September.

According to Asbarez, he will be part of a seven-member, bipartisan
delegation to South Africa and Namibia, serving as a young political
leader representing the United States. Participants in the program
must be nominated by a member of U.S. Congress or an alumnus of the
program. Delegates have the unique opportunity to meet with elected
officials at the national, regional and local levels, as well as
policy makers, business and community leaders in the host countries.

`I have always had a strong interest and admiration for the election
processes in South Africa, particularly in the post-Apartheid era,’
said Kassakhian, who has a framed ballot from that historic election
when Nelson Mandela ran for President hanging in his office at City
Hall. `I am equally interested in the elections processes in a
relatively young nation like Namibia which has only been a state since
1990,’ he added.

Based in Washington, ACYPL is a nonpartisan NGO that is
internationally recognized as the pre-eminent catalyst for introducing
rising political and policy professionals to international affairs.

Fed Up or Breaking Ruben Hairapetyan

Naira Hayrumyan
Story from Lragir.am News:

Published: 13:19:19 – 23/08/2012

f summer may be the beginning of an active autumn. I don’t mean the
municipal elections, preparations for the upcoming presidential ones or the
foreign political orientation of Armenia, but the ongoing and irrevocable
process of establishment of civil control on the activities of the
authorities.

The process, which is unfolded around the Harsnakar story, may be decisive
in this sense. The group of lawyers, journalists and civil activists
insistently don’t want to reconcile with the lack of punishment for the
oligarch. They bring more proves of Ruben Hairapetyan’s involvement in Vahe
Avetyan’s murder in Harsnakar restaurant. This insistence is not supported
by foreign grants or `competing’ groups, but the firm conviction which
makes the lawyers work free of charge.

Everyone is fed up with the situation when the law enforcement bodies,
instructed by the authorities, will never harm the oligarch, that the
society, journalists, lawyers even having combined their efforts are unable
to break down the vicious tradition. Everyone is tired of acknowledging
their weakness in front of the system, of giving bribes at each step, of
being afraid of speaking loudly about the guilt of the `untouchable
figures’.

When not only young activists, but also lawyers, who always deal with good
money, agree to work free of charge, it means a lot. This means that the
end of the impunity is coming and any case may be the last attempt of the
system to defend its oligarch.

The Harsnakar case is not ruled out to be the very last case and the
lawyers, with the help of the civil society, are possible to prove Ruben
Hairapetyan’s involvement in the assassination. They have already managed
to prove the deliberate concealment of certain facts by the police. And now
the question is not that the law enforcement agencies protect Hairapetyan,
it has already been proved, but the question is how long they will be able
to sustain the civil assault.

The behavior of the power also proves the fact that Ruben Hairapetyan’s
case may be the exemplary demolition of the oligarchic arbitrariness. Right
after the initiative and the first wave of protest, Hairapetyan was called
to the presidential office, after which he issued a statement of apology
and informed about laying down his parliamentary mandate.

But the laying down of the mandate was necessary to the presidential
administration not for saving Ruben Hairapetyan but for saving the image of
the parliament. Now, when Hairapetyan is officially out of the power,
nothing can hinder surrendering him, sure, excluding the financial
calculations and `brother relations’. But this is nothing in relation to
the civil wave, which will most likely arise in the beginning of autumn.
The hard work of the lawyers is a proof.

For the last 2-3 years, much has changed in Armenia: the society has grown,
the authorities `has turned tail’ and is involuntarily looking at the
public opinion, even meet it. Ruben Hairapetyan apparently not didn’t
understand this, when, according to some information, instructed his
security guards to teach the medical officers. But he has clearly
understood everything, and now he is willing to pay much in order to limit
his permissiveness, but not appear behind bars.

But what can he do?