UNDER THE KREMLIN THUMB: PRE-ELECTION IS PERIOD OF DEAL-MAKING – FAVORING BIG BROTHER
By Gayane Abrahamyan
ArmeniaNow
31.10.12 | 15:21
Over the past two weeks a number of factors have most clearly outlined
the pressure Big Brother and strategic partner Russia is putting on
Armenia for not embracing the “neo-soviet” idea of Vladimir Putin’s
Eurasian Union.
“If not for Russia Armenia would most probably not even be on the map.
Armenia enjoys today’s status solely due to Russia and is able to
survive again solely due to Russia,” wrote Kremlin-adjunct Mikhail
Leontyev, commentator for Odnako magazine.
The latest issue of Odnako led by Leontyev, who is viewed as Putin’s
non-official spokesman, is titled “Whither Armenia?”. Leontyev in
his article titled “Armenia enjoys today’s status solely due to
Russia” mocks that “Armenia has no alternative” other than entering
the Eurasian Union and that “its ravings about European choice are
rather strange”.
Why now? Why is Russia concerned about Armenia now? There are two
reasons: first, it’s a pre-election period and, second, Armenia’s
success in the negotiations on signing the European Union Association
Agreement.
The pre-election period is optimum time for putting pressure on the
authorities, and that pressure is obviously being exerted.
Various politicians and political analysts have stressed a number of
times that Putin’s idea of creating a Eurasian Union with ambitions
of becoming the European Union’s competitor and counterweight,
in reality is set to solve Russia’s “empire-worshipping” goal of
completely depriving smaller countries of their sovereignty.
Yet in April-May Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sarsgsyan in his
interviews to two Russia-based periodicals Vedomosti and Gazeta.ru
said that “entering the Customs Union” which is the basis of the
Eurasian Union “is pointless to us because we have no common borders”.
Speaking publicly against the Customs Union meant opposing also
Armenia’s potential membership in the Eurasian Union; as Putin
pointed out in his famous article of October 2011, the creation of
a free trade zone – the Customs Union – would become the foundation
for building a much bigger – Eurasian – union.
The Armenian premier in his interview to Gazeta.ru even suggested
that a special status be granted to Armenia “respective subsidizing,
assistance, grants, if it is about integrating into a respective
economic area. Economic stimuli have to be created to motivate
integration.”
Theses bold sentiments faded away in August when during
Putin-Sargsyan’s meeting, Putin distantly answered the premier’s
suggestion saying “we will discuss it”.
It was right after this that persistent speculations started
in Armenia’s political backstage on premier Sargsyan’s possible
dismissal. In September the sentiments changed yet once again.
During the newly-elected parliament’s very first Q&A the premier,
responding to Armenian Revolutionary Federation MP Artsvik Minasyan’s
question, said something completely opposite to his earlier statements:
“There is one absolute truth: the steps on creating a free trade zone
around Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus have illustrated the advantages
of that process.”
In Armenia Putin’s promise to discuss the issue was interpreted as
the last chance for positive cooperation.
Political analysts did not rule out that just as the Ukrainian premier
had set a condition for entering the Customs Union – Russia would have
to sell natural gas for $150 per 1000 cubic meters — Armenia, as a
strategic partner, would be able to claim gas for no more than $180.
These hopes died last week when the data placed on State Revenues
official site made it clear that since July Armenia has been purchasing
gas for $244, rather than the officially announced $180.
This confirms radical opposition Armenian National Congress MP Levon
Zurabyan’s claims that “the government has been hiding the price-hike
in gas tariffs” not to create tensions among public prior to the
presidential elections.
At the National Assembly’s Q&A during the previous four-day session
Zurabyan raised a point that the government had been paying the added
gas tariff by selling shares of ArmRusGasArt stock, which is 20 percent
owned by Armenia. It has been speculated that the government sold its
share for $157.5 million. Zurabyan asked the prime minister whether
this information was accurate.
Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Armen Movsisyan answered
the question saying that “negotiations are in process with Russia
over the gas tariffs, and as soon as they are completed people will
be informed”. But before anyone was “informed” the damaging news
emerged on the State Revenues site.
This latest “property for gas” deal has once again pointed out the
truth in Leontyev’s commentary when he writes that Armenia put herself
“in total dependence” of Russia.
The tradition of such resource for security trades was first set
prior to the urgent presidential elections of 1998, when 45 percent
of ArmRusGazArt company share was given to Russia as compensation
for natural gas, then prior to the 2003 election a whole package was
given by a “property for gas” deal which included five major entities,
and after the election Sevan-Hrazdan cascade was given away as a
payback for $25 million worth of atomic fuel supplied to Metsamor
Nuclear Power Plant.
In 2007 and 2008 the communication field and the railways were
sacrificed for the 2007 and 2008 parliamentary and presidential
elections, as well as Hrazdan Hydro Power Plant’s fifth energy block
– Iran back then was offering much more favourable purchase terms
than Russia.
Hrazdan’s fifth block was given away in 2007 for gas subsidy – back
then Russia, again, had raised the tariff 2.5 times and in order
to ease the social tension the Armenian government subsidized the
gas price for two years, and did it by selling the energy block for
$60 million cash and the remaining $189 million as payment for the
subsidy. Nonetheless, the gas tariff underwent a drastic 40-percent
hike in 2009.
“This is the consequence of a short-sighted policy, which continues up
until now and will keep damaging us. And this kind of short-sighted
policy will ultimately lead us to entering the Eurasian Union which
is potentially dangerous to us from several perspectives,” former
foreign minister, MP Alexander Arzumanyan told ArmeniaNow.
While messages and reminders are voiced by Russia on different levels
on Armenia’s status as its “outpost”, Armenia is expecting Putin’s
visit which has been postponed three times since late September.
Political analysts assume it is being postponed “because of attempts
to come to certain agreements”.