GAYANE NOVIKOVTHE SOUTH CAUCASUS STATES ARE TRAPPED BY THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS
ArmInfo’s interview with Gayane Novikova, Founding Director of the
Center for Strategic Analysis SPECTRUM
by Emmanuil Lazarian
Tuesday, April 21, 11:45
Against the background of the upcoming nation-wide events regarding the
commemoration of the Armenian Genocide Centennial, all other events
appear to have paled into insignificance. However, there are serious
processes in the world which – to a different extent – influence the
region and Armenia. Gayane, I am sure that you are following these
developments closely. I’d like to start our interview referring to
your speech at the Second South Caucasus Security Forum in Tbilisi
in November, 2014. I was present there and I’d like to recall your
statement suggesting that the Ukrainian crisis became a watershed in
the EU-Russia relations, and the South Caucasus states have become
hostages to that situation. Don’t you think that Europe has also
become a hostage to the United States’ geopolitical ambitions?
Everyone has become a hostage of this situation. Some European states
follow in the footsteps of U.S. policy, which does not always serve
its interests. Sanctions indirectly affect also the U.S. , restricting
its space for political and diplomatic maneuvering in areas where
cooperation with Russia is inevitable, at least in the foreseeable
future. Moreover, each European state has its own political,
historical, economic, social, and cultural reasons to cooperate or
not to cooperate with Russia. Not everything can be drawn in black
and white All of these nations, or more precisely those seriously
affected by the sanctions against Russia, have begun to realize that
the sanctions give an impetus to Russia -that is, they force the
latter seriously to think about the diversification of economy. If
prompt and successful diversification occurs, the European states will
lose a part of the huge Russian and, to some degree, Eurasian market
at that moment when the EU will lift sanctions against Russia (and
it will inevitably happen). After all, Russia was one of the largest
consumers of EU goods and services. Therefore, Europeans have begun
to ask traditionally “Russian questions,” such as “What to do?” and
“Who is to blame?”
In October, 2014, I participated in one of the fora organized
by the Italian Institute of International Affairs. The theme was
relations between the West and Russia in the context of processes
in Ukraine. It was the only conference of its kind which did not
provide any recommendations. The expert community, represented by
well-known European, American, Russian, and Ukrainian analysts did
not come to any conclusion. It was obvious that Russia cannot be
isolated. Neither can it be ignored when it comes to settlement of
some very important problems.
Do you think they realize that?
Sure, the analysts (not politicians!) are well aware of this. They
understand that the best option for all the parties, and first of all,
for Europe and Russia, is to take a step back. The point is how to walk
away from a confrontational model and to save face. Russia offered
cooperation at different stages, but from its vantage point did not
receive any proper response. The return of Crimea (as Russia calls
it) or its annexation (according to international law) was simply
Russia’s response to the misunderstanding or neglect by the West of
its strategic interests. President Putin also addressed this issue
on Russian television’s “Direct Line” on April 16.
Interestingly, at the conference in Rome, which I mentioned earlier,
the experts did not focus on the Crimea issue. It appears that, at
a psychological level, the Crimea issue has been settled, although
conclusions regarding its legal status will take decades.
In spite of the West’s attempts to isolate Russia, it is still involved
in many international processes. You advocate a further cooperation
between the West and Russia, not least because there are many areas
of common interest, for instance, in the resolution of the complex
issues in the South Caucasus.
This is correct. I am trying to deliver this message to the expert
community and to the political establishment of the European
states. I am deeply convinced that in the global international
agenda there are many serious issues where this cooperation must
occur. They exist in our region as well. As you can observe,
after Armenia’s geopolitical choice, European organizations have
not terminated their cooperation with Armenia and even intensified
interaction in some areas. The recent economic agreement on further
EU assistance is one of the piece of evidence. The Ukrainian crisis
forced Europe to reconsider its cooperation with the South Caucasus
states, particularly, with Armenia. In fact, Russia’s monopoly over
the management of all processes in our region was cracked long ago,
and this crack – if we take into consideration the processes inside
and outside the region – is becoming wider. Armenia, as a country
with limited political, military, and economic maneuverability, in
turn strives “to milk two cows at once” (Russia and EU). This is a
pragmatic and strategically quite justified approach, especially if
one takes into account the cancellation of some projects supported by
the US government. Becoming a member of the Eurasian Economic Union
and at the same time maintaining quite serious ties with the EU,
Armenia can and must restore its foreign policy balance and continue
its complementary policy. The invitation of President Serzh Sargsyan
to the NATO Summit in Wales should be considered in this very context.
Some Russian analysts view the Eastern Partnership Project as a
US-Polish provocation, as an attempt to weaken the geopolitical
influence of Russia. Russia for a long time and, at first sight, had
observed the pompous presentation of the EaP to the eastern partners
of Europe indifferently. These states, in turn, tried to adjust and
synchronize the European standards with the needs of their countries in
a way that would not anger Russia. Why did they shift from that calm
process to the burdened geo-strategic “either…or” choice? It became
clear that the EaP initially pursued political goals and contained
elements of a geopolitical game directly related to the interests
of the Euro-Atlantic bloc. After all, some North African states and
Turkey have Association Agreements with the EU, but no one in these
countries highlights these AA as geopolitically very important.
Your observation regarding both the political component and the extreme
pompousness of the EaP is correct. It is the normal posture owing to
the fact that this program needed and sought huge funding. To receive
such funds, Poland and Sweden had to demonstrate the importance of
this project for the entire European Union – and most members were
quite skeptical. Many of us realized then that Ukraine, as the most
important of the three eastern European states, was the pivotal element
in this game. Along with Moldova and Belarus, it should have become a
“buffer zone” between Russia and Europe.
According to the European experts, such a buffer zone would increase
European security. However, Russia’s response was quite predictable.
European officials by pushing the partners to make a choice,
miscalculated the consequences. They could have been more flexible
and could have avoided a confrontation, especially in this situation:
namely, it was obvious that the Russian president was prepared to
further test the strength of the mentioned partnership relations.
Anyway, Russia failed to hold Ukraine, and it “went” to the West.
In Ukraine the situation is very special. Ukraine is a very unique and
diverse country – and this cannot be neglected. Russia has powerful
leverage there, such as the belonging of two nations to the same
civilization. There are still heated debates about what state’s cradle
– the Kievan Rus (Kievskaya Rus’) – was. For the Ukrainian people it
is a very important question now. On the other hand, Russia puts the
idea of “compatriot” at the top of its list of priorities and hence
supports those groups in Eastern Ukraine that advocate, on the basis
of their Russian identity, for separation.
As for the idea that the security of the EU will be increased by
the AA, it should be stressed that Ukraine’s move to the West, and
the war that followed, actually thwarted these plans. Many European
countries, namely Poland and Sweden, followed by the Baltic States,
began to demand an increase in their security not through soft power
measures, but through hard power: they demanded more and more military
defense investment. In fact, we will probably face a serious round
of militarization, with all its consequences. The decisions of the
recent NATO Summit and the frequency of military maneuvers held by
the conflicting parties confirm this trend.
To what frame of axes should the South Caucasus belong ?
On the one hand, the South Caucasus states have become the hostages
of the Ukrainian crisis, which is absorbing all the “energy” of the
European institutions and Russia alike. Ukraine is becoming the focus
of their attention. On the other hand, the South Caucasus, also viewed
as a buffer zone, is becoming more important for the European states
and for Russia. I am thinking of their common threat: the Islamic
State. Turkey and Azerbaijan have become the main transit routes for
Islamists of all nationalities. In this context, ensuring the stability
of the Caucasus in general, and its southern part in particular,
is the priority for regional as well as non-regional actors.
NATO does not interfere in the settlement of South Caucasus conflicts,
but it continues its efforts to involve the region’s countries in
its programs. Despite the political decision on Georgia’s possible
accession to NATO, Georgia has not been provided with the Membership
Action Plan so far. There is a plan to set up a regional training
center in Georgia to pave the way for cooperation between the Georgian
armed forces and NATO. This accelerated rapprochement is directly
connected with the developments in Ukraine. Don’t you think that NATO
is making its way to the South Caucasus “on the sly” and that this
movement is unlikely to maintain the fragile balance of forces?
I don’t think so. The developments in Ukraine have demonstrated that
the West is not ready to fight for this key state. As the saying goes,
every man must carry his own sack to the mill. Military advisers can
continue to provide recommendations and to hope that someone will
follow their counsel. Frankly speaking, the West wants all domestic
processes in the buffer states – in Southeastern Europe and the South
Caucasus – to be predictable and reasonable. One should not forget that
Europe prefers to operate using soft power, which does not require
significant financial investments, unlike the expensive programs of
NATO. The latter quickly shifts from soft power measures to hard power.
Regarding developments in our region: The balance of power in the
South Caucasus is achieved owing to the military parity (with intense
Russian participation) between the parties to the Nagorno Karabakh
conflict, as well as because of – paradoxically – the division lines
existing and growing in the region. You have mentioned that NATO does
not intervene in the resolution of the South Caucasus conflicts.
However, these conflicts are one of the mechanisms to establish control
in our region. Russia is a direct participant in the “Georgian”
conflicts and a mediator (along with the United States and France)
in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. Furthermore, Russia uses this
conflict against both Armenia and Azerbaijan, although “against”
is probably irrelevant here. Perhaps it would be more correct to say
that Russia is trying “to retain hold of” both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
It is obvious that for Russia it is hard to make an unambiguous choice
in favor of one or the other of the parties to the conflict.
At one of the conferences organized by your analytical center in early
2014, the NATO representatives praised Armenia for its ability to sit
on two chairs. They stressed that the republic is the only CSTO member
which participates in NATO peacekeeping operations. They emphasized
that Yerevan’s ability to combine two different approaches is an
important factor taking into consideration the current discrepancies
between the CSTO and NATO. In your opinion how sincere are these
statements through the prism of developments in Ukraine and will we
continue to hear such statements? NATO sent already its clear signal
to Moscow, and the latter in turn began serious talk about the NATO
threat to Russian interests.
First and foremost, Russia has been considering NATO as a direct
threat to its interests for a long time. In August, 2008, in Georgia,
and in March, 2014, in Ukraine it demonstrated its serious approach
to this issue. In such a situation, Armenia should act cautiously;
hence, the praise of our state’s stand is absolutely well-grounded.
Furthermore, Armenia has repeatedly expressed its willingness to be,
and to serve, as a bridge or a platform between the European Union
and the Eurasian Economic Union.
Could you please forecast the further developments in the region?
Maintaining stability in the South Caucasus is becoming a priority for
all non-regional actors. Much will depend on the internal political
situation in each of the regional states. Azerbaijan is still in the
most advantageous situation: it contends, due to its oil revenues,
at least for the role of a regional energy power (until the sanctions
against Iran will be lifted) and it maintains quite successfully
a balance in its relations with both Russia and the West. It will
most likely enjoy also more support from them to the extent that,
as likely, its role in the fight against the Islamic State grows.
Georgia is in a quite stable situation: its official pro-EU and
pro-NATO policy no longer irritates Russia, and the emerging group
holding pro-Russian sentiments in Georgia do not change anything.
Armenia is also experiencing stability, which is, however, of a
different kind. It is still governable by its political authorities
because on the one hand the negative example provided by Ukraine
has tempered the strident voices of many. On the other hand,
conflicts among the political elites have sparked a new wave of public
disappointment. Against this background it is important to preserve the
status quo in the area of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. Major efforts
should be concentrated on returning Nagorno Karabakh to the negotiating
table in order to continue discussion on the non-use of force agreement
within a new format. This new format should include meetings between
all three – Armenian, Azerbaijani, and Nagorno Karabakh – presidents.
But it is impossible to apply the third international principle
– non-use of force – until the problem of the future status of
Nagorno Karabakh is settled. Azerbaijan is not interested in its
implementation.
The return of Nagorno Karabakh to the negotiation table will itself
create the necessary open space for all the parties concerned. It
will give a fresh and vigorous impetus to the peace process. I am
sure that all parties, all of whom are genuinely interested in the
conflict’s resolution, will benefit from it.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=51E32B40-E7FA-11E4-862E0EB7C0D21663