Author: Kalantarian Kevo

Global Insight
January 30, 2013

Armenian inflation ends 2012 on target

by Venla Sipila

According to the latest inflation data from the Central Bank of
Armenia (CBA), consumer prices ended 2012 by gaining 3.2% year-on-year
(y/y), following growth of 3.6% y/y in November 2012 and 3.4% y/y in
October. With more modest inflation rates in the preceding months, the
average annual rate for last year as a whole came in at 2.6%,
inflation thus markedly moderating from the 2011 average of 7.7%.
Among the key good groups, prices of non-food items increased by the
fastest rate in December, surging by 5.7% y/y, while food prices
climbed by 3.0% y/y, and the cost of paid services rose by a
relatively modest rate of 2.1% y/y. For the year as a whole, non-food
prices increased by most; the average gain of 4.6% clearly exceeded
food and service inflation rates, at 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively.

Significance:Armenian inflation in late 2012 was slightly more modest
than we expected. The significant easing of inflation pressures last
year in comparison to 2011 was somewhat surprising, taking into
account the strength of global food prices, in particular, combined
with notable role of food items in the average Armenian consumption
basket. However, this was partly explained by the good domestic
agricultural harvest. The end-2012 inflation comfortably fits the
target set at 4% +/- 1.5 percentage points by the Central Bank of
Armenia (CBA). We expect Armenian inflation to remain within target
range in 2013, staying fairly stable in the coming quarters. Thus, we
also believe that there will be little reason for the CBA to revise
its policy interest rate soon. The refinancing rate ended 2012 at 8%,
having remained unchanged throughout the year. Risks to the inflation
outlook are posed by developments in global commodity prices, as well
as the risk that muted global growth will markedly harm remittance
inflows, leading to deprecation of the dram, and further to higher
inflation via increased import prices.

Interfax, Russia
Jan 29 2013

Russia, Armenia drafting military-technical cooperation program for
period after 2013

YEREVAN. Jan 29

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his Armenian counterpart
Seyran Ohanian have discussed regional and international security and
bilateral cooperation in Yerevan.

“We have discussed defense and military-technical cooperation and
further development of our strategic partnership,” Shoigu said after
the negotiations with his Armenian colleague.

“The discussion yielded a number of additional decisions,” the Russian
defense minister said.

A program of defense and military-technical cooperation will be
drafted in February for the period after 2013, he said.

Heads of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) are now
working in Yerevan, Shoigu said. “Documents will be signed within the
CSTO framework today to create additional elements, which will
contribute to regional security,” he said.

In turn, Armenian Defense Minister Ohanian said that the official
visit of Shoigu to Yerevan was a planned event. International and
regional security issues were on the agenda, he said. “We compared
positions on a number of topical aspects of bilateral defense and
military-technical cooperation and issues related to the functioning
of the Russian military base stationed in Armenia,” Ohanian said.

In his opinion, “the visit will apparently give a fresh impetus to our
defense cooperation and strengthen our relations.”

Te jv

Hayrikyan decides applying to Armenian Constitutional Court, but…

February 09, 2013 | 15:52

YEREVAN. – As of now, Armenia’s presidential candidate, opposition
National Self-Determination Union (NSU) Chairman Paruyr Hayrikyan – who
is recovering at hospital from a gunshot wound after a recent
assassination attempt – has decided petitioning to the Constitutional
Court (CC), with a formal request to postpone the presidential
election – which is slated for February 18 – for two weeks. Hayrikyan’s
friend, NSU Public Relations Officer, and the candidate’s election
campaign headquarters representative Garo Yegnukian told this to
Armenian News-NEWS.am.

He noted that Hayrikyan will be at CC, on Sunday at 3:30pm, to submit
his petition. The campaign headquarters, however, is not disclosing
the full content of the petition but, aside from the request to put
off the voting for two weeks, there are other circumstances in it,
too.

At the same time, Garo Yegnukian noted that Paruyr Hayrikyan still
could change his mind and not apply to the Court, but this would
depend on some circumstances, including the reactions by other fellow
contenders.

To note Hayrikyan on Saturday issued an open letter to fellow
candidates, namely, opposition Freedom Party Chairman, former PM Hrant
Bagratyan and opposition Heritage Party Chairman, former FM Raffi
Hovannisian, with a call for a single oppositional candidate. `In
reality, if I postpone the [presidential] election [which is slated
for February 18] for two weeks, we can propose a single candidate,
bring all of our platforms together, and present ourselves jointly
before the people for ten days. And, in this case, our joint
percentage [of the votes] will become 80 percent. Dear Raffi and
Hrant: Either we achieve a result together, or we lose separately. The
options for selecting the organizational, psychological, single
candidate likewise are designed,’ Hayrikyan specifically wrote in his
open letter, which is posted in his Facebook page. Bagratyan and
Hovannisian, however, have not yet replied to Hayrikyan’s open letter.

As Armenian News-NEWS.am informed earlier, Paruyr Hayrikyan announced
Tuesday that he will not petition to the Constitutional Court with a
formal request to postpone the presidential election, and therefore
the vote will be conducted on February 18, as planned. Hayrikyan
explained his reason for this by saying he does not wish to contribute
to the plans to forcibly change Armenia’s political agenda. On Friday,
however, Hayrikyan noted that they are preparing to submit a petition
and, also, that he wants to note in his petition that he should have
the right to withdraw it at any time, and depending on his health
condition. Subsequently, representatives fro Hayrikyan’s campaign
headquarters announced that the CC is prepared to accept the petition
on Sunday, too. So, if Hayrikyan’s health condition does not improve,
the petition will be submitted on Sunday.

To note, an assassination attempt was made against presidential
candidate, opposition National Self-Determination Union Chairman
Paruyr Hayrikyan, on January 31 at around 11:20pm in downtown Yerevan,
in front of his home. Hayrikyan was shot and hospitalized with a
gunshot wound. He underwent a successful surgery on the morning of
February 1, and a bullet – which was located in the soft tissues of his
right elbow shoulder – was removed.

A criminal case is opened in connection with the assassination attempt
against Paruyr Hayrikyan. It is launched on charges of carrying out an
assassination attempt against a statesman, political or public figure,
which – that is, the attempt – is carried out to end this person’s noted
activities. This crime is punishable by imprisonment for 12-20 years,
or life in prison. The National Security Service is conducting the
investigation. And on Thursday, formerly convicted Khachatur Poghosyan
(born in 1966), and Samvel Harutyunyan (born in 1972) were arrested on
suspicion of carrying out an assassination attempt against Paruyr
Hayrikyan.

Who will monitor Armenia’s presidential vote?

February 09, 2013 | 11:43

YEREVAN. – Six international and 24 local organizations as well as
representatives from the foreign embassies accredited in Armenia are
registered, at the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) as of Friday, to
carry out observation missions during the presidential election to be
held in the country on February 18, the CEC official website informs.

To note, the seven presidential candidates that will run in the
election are: Ruling Republican Party leader and incumbent President
Serzh Sargsyan, opposition Heritage Party Chairman Raffi Hovannisian,
opposition Freedom Party Chairman Hrant Bagratyan, opposition National
Self-Determination Union Chairman Paruyr Hayrikyan, Nagorno-Karabakh
Republic former FM Arman Melikyan, `Radio Hay’ Company Manager Andreas
Ghukasyan, and non-party affiliate and epic poetry specialist Vardan
Sedrakyan.

The election campaign season had kicked off on January 21.

Kerry’s Dilemma: The Groupthink On Turkey

Secretary of State John Kerry

BY SETO BOYADJIAN, ESQ.

Last week Sen. John Kerry – a long-time supporter of Armenian American
issues – was confirmed as our new Secretary of State. In the process
of his confirmation hearing, Kerry shied away from his continued
stance on Armenian issues and revealed a new face, which in fact is
the old face of the outgoing Secretary Hillary Clinton.

In his responses to the written questionnaires submitted by Senators
Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Robert Menendez (D-NJ), Kerry sounded
pathetic enough to evade his outspoken convictions on the Armenian
Genocide and Armenia. At the same time he sounded hypocritical enough
to reflect President Obama’s unabashed retreat on Armenian issues.

We have become accustomed to this kind of `change of heart’ by our
friends on Capitol Hill as soon as they are offered the opportunity to
hold an executive pedestal within the Administration. As such, there
must be an explanation to the about-face of `friends’ such as Obama,
Biden, Clinton, Kerry and their ilk.

The explanation lies in the groupthink on Turkey that is embedded
within the National Security Council circles and State Department
staffers. This groupthink expresses itself in favor of Turkey on all
issues that relate to Armenia and Armenian American concerns.

Groupthink on Turkey at the level of the Administration operates in
rationalizing and decision making to support, to please and to appease
Turkey irrespective of prevalent realities that manifest harmful
consequences to U.S. interests. This is an utterly biased practice
that has been going on unchallenged over that past fifty years.

In meetings and dealings with the White House and State Department
staffers on Armenian American concerns, it is easily detected how they
display an instinctive as well as rationalized conformity to a policy
that blindly favors Turkey. When confronted with hard political and
geopolitical facts denoting the damaging effects of Turkish positions
on U.S. strategic interests, they try to minimize or ignore the
problem and stubbornly adhere to their fallacious analysis of the
problem.

Groupthink on Turkey is so perfected that our policy makers in the
Administration are not bothered with their incorrect or deviant
decisions that place our national interests in the harm’s way.

A case in point is the overblown assumption that Turkey is a valuable
and loyal ally. Time and again Turkey has evidenced that its
credentials as a U.S. ally – let alone as valuable and loyal – is
highly dubious. Turkey, just like any other country, pursues its own
national interest. In this pursuit it has crossed and conflicted with
U.S. strategic interest over and over again. Since 2002, the Erdogan
government, with its Ottoman empirical ambitions and Islamist
penchants, has repeatedly proven that it has no qualms in ignoring and
even confronting U.S. interests.

Another case in point is the exaggerated importance of Turkey in
geopolitical terms. Turkey is an important country. It carries its
weight in the region. However, in reference to the South Caucasus,
Turkey’s geopolitical importance is counterbalanced in significant
measures by Armenia. Given the current regional realities and the
prevalent instabilities in Georgia and Azerbaijan, Armenia is an
important gatekeeper to Eurasia in general and to the South Central
Asian countries in particular. In reference to the latter Armenia
becomes significantly important given those countries’ proximity to
China and China’s relations with the U.S.

Turkey is not the only country that carries geopolitical weight in the
region. Armenia, with its geographic location and stability, presents
significant geopolitical importance to U.S. strategic interests in the
region. Turkey has made one of its main political objectives to
minimize Armenia’s geopolitical importance in the eyes of U.S. and the
West. The Baku-Ceyhan pipeline is a glaring example of Turkish
attempts to bypass Armenia, thereby trying to diminish Armenia’s
geopolitical value.

Unfortunately, the U.S. groupthink on Turkey has become a major
obstacle for our policy makers to render Armenia its due share of
importance. As explained by the groupthink theory pioneer Irving
Janis, the groupthink `tends to override realistic appraisal of
alternative courses of action.’ Such an attitude does not serve our
national interest well.

Secretary Kerry became the new victim of groupthink on Turkey. The
choice now rests with him not too victimize U.S. interests to this
groupthink process. This choice is also Kerry’s dilemma.

Seto Boyadjian is an attorney and serves on the national board of ANCA.

Save Horizon Nonprofit Television

By Save Horizon (Contact)

To be delivered to: Del Heintz, California Director of Government
Relations, James M. Heneghan, President, Charter Media, Inc., Jean
Simmons, Vice President and General Manager, Rick Dykhouse, Senior VP,
General Counsel and Corporate Secretary, Julius Genachowski, FCC
Chairman and 4 other targets (click here to see more)

Petition Statement
Charter Communications Inc., the nation’s fourth largest cable
operator, has decided that Horizon Armenian Television, which has been
serving the Armenian community for more than two decades, will be
yanked off the Charter lineup effective February 19, 2013.

This shocking and unilateral decision by the corporation that governs
the cable system serving Glendale, Burbank, La Crescenta, La Canada,
Pasadena and San Gabriel Valley will deprive its customers of access
to a reliable source of news related to community developments and
events during this critical period preceding the municipal elections
in Burbank, Glendale, Los Angeles, and other cities. I find this
action by Charter a gross injustice and a disservice to the
Armenian-American community.

This action by Charter is nothing short of bullying a non-profit
organization which is dedicated to service and betterment of the
community.

I demand that Charter overturn its decision and allow HORIZON ARMENIAN
TELEVISION to continue its broadcasts and service to the community.
Petition Background

Charter Communications, the nation’s fourth largest cable operator,
has decided to remove from its airwaves the oldest Armenian TV
channel, Horizon, which has been serving the community for over two
decades with important, quality programming.

There are currently 3,579 signatures
NEW goal – We need 4,000 signatures

To sign the petition, please visit:

Henrikh Mkhitaryan becomes Ukrainian club magazine’s cover man

February 9

DONETSK. ` Armenian national football team and Ukraine’s FC Shakhtar
Donetsk midfielder Henrikh Mkhitaryan on Sunday will present the
January issue of Shakhtar magazine, the club’s official website
informs.

The Armenian midfielder is the cover man of this glossy, and an
autograph session for the fans will take place, as well.In addition,
the visitors will get a chance to take pictures with the three cups
that Shakhtar won at winter training camps.

According to tradition, the first fifty fans that attend the event
will receive a copy of the official club magazine as a gift from
Henrikh Mkhitaryan.

NEWS.am Sport

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PRESS RELEASE
RAFFI HOVANNISIAN CAMPAIGN HEADQUARTERS
31 Moscovian Street
Yerevan, Armenia
Tel.: (+374 – 10) 53.69.13
Fax: (+374 – 10) 53.26.97
Email: [email protected]
Website:

09 February 2013

Raffi Hovannisian Visits Gegharkunik, Vows 600% Spike in Foreign Investments

Yerevan–Raffi K. Hovannisian today took his campaign tour to the
Gegharkunik region. In the town of Vardenis a large crowd of
supporters greeted him at the town square, and thanked him for
speaking freely of their problems and offering ways to overcome them.

`We will create an environment that enables residents of Vardenis,
Martuni, Kyavar, Gyumri, Sisian, and other towns and villages to earn
their living through dignified work in their homeland,’ Hovannisian
said. `This will be achieved by dismantling corruption and artificial
monopolies, by fostering agricultural and industrial development, and
by building up family entrepreneurship. This will lead to a 10 percent
annual growth that will benefit every Armenian.’

Hovannisian then made stops in other residential areas–including
Martuni, Gavar, Sevan, Tsovinar, Vardenik, Nerkin Getashen–presenting
his platform and policy plans. He stressed his plan to return 300
billion drams a year to the budget, thereby instantly increasing
pensions by 50 percent and increasing funding for education, science,
health care and security.

At Sevan, Hovannisian further proclaimed the potential for increasing
foreign investments six fold, creating 180,000 new jobs, and thus
raising over 600,000 citizens out of poverty over a five-year period.
`These calculations are firmly based on professional analysis, and
require only a political will for implementation,’ Raffi Hovannisian
said.

Raffi Hovannisian Campaign Headquarters

ARMENIA’S KOTAYK GOVERNOR SEVERELY REPRIMANDS VILLAGE COMMUNITY HEAD

TERT.AM
22:26 ~U 08.02.13

Kotayk Governor Kovalenko Shahgeldyan severely reprimanded the head
of the Kasakh village community Aram Lazarian (a member of the ruling
Republican Party of Armenia – RPA) for political advertising.

Lazarian hung scarves with the words ‘Toward secure Armenia’ from
the Armenian national flag in his office. Also, Armenia’s incumbent
President Serzh Sargsyan’s leaflet was stuck on the letter box.

Earlier, Mr Lazarian told journalists that he was involved in the
RPA leader Serzh Sargsyan’s election campaign. On the other hand,
he assured the journalists that he was not carrying out political
advertising at the village administration.

ARMENIA WILL INTRODUCE MATERNITY CAPITAL – PRESIDENT

NEWS.AM
February 08, 2013 | 19:54

A healthy family is the foundation of a healthy society, said
Armenian presidential candidate, incumbent President Serzh Sargsyan
at the meeting with voters of administrative district of Zeytun in
Yerevan city.

According to him, the reforms of the health sector are one of the
most important ones. Particular emphasis will be placed on healthy
lifestyles and disease prevention.

“Armenia should become a country where mother and child will be under
the protection of the state and society. In this context, the idea
of maternity capital is to be implemented, lump amount should have
an encouraging nature for the third, and fourth child, and in the
case of 5 or more children – help to promote the improvement of a
large family. Overall, the country is moving to the introduction of
the institute of medical insurance for all,” the president said.

In this regard, he recalled that since last year, medical insurance
has already been introduced for some categories of people.

“The process of reforms and equipment of regional medical centers will
continue,” the president said and noted that some work has already
been done, and Yerevan medical centers have already been unloaded.

In the future, cardiac surgery will be available to everybody in
Armenia. Hematology Center has been built and Oncology Center will
be built.

“Armenia will become the regional center of health. The Government
should promote the establishment of pharmaceutical companies,
and within 3-4 months a package for socially vulnerable groups of
society will be introduced, which will help them purchase medicine
30-40 percent cheaper,” he said.