“EUROPEAN” ARMENIA
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
July 22 2013
22 July 2013 – 12:37pm
by Yuri Kramar, exclusive to VK
Armenia does not stop talking about the future of “European
integration.” Of course, a full-fledged membership in the European
Union is not expected, but it longs to get at least a consolation
prize – the Association Agreement and the agreement “on a deep and
comprehensive free trade area” with the EU within the framework of
the “Eastern Partnership”, established in 2008 at the initiative of
Poland and Sweden.
That’s when it became clear that taking new members to “united
Europe” is suspended. However, as the idea of European integration
has become the official religion of the present pro-Western elites
of some post-Soviet states like Ukraine, for them the aforementioned
“ersatz” was invented with associated membership and other inventions
of European diplomats not binding upon the European institutions
clear commitment to new partners. This made it possible to join the
“Eastern Partnership” for the countries which are not located in
Europe, including the Caucasus.
Armenia and EU plan to initial these agreements at the Vilnius summit
in November. However, the motives that compel the parties to take
such actions do not always follow the usual logic.
For example, why does Yerevan need a “deep and comprehensive free
trade” with the European Union? Now its share in foreign trade turnover
of Armenia is about one-third of the total – and its imports exceed
exports by “only” 1.5 times. “Only” – because the whole import of the
whole foreign trade exceeds export by 2.7 times. That is, logically,
to remedy the situation Armenian goods should be made more competitive
in the markets of the CIS, in particular, the Customs Union and the
WTO in general. The situation in the European direction looks quite
good – in comparison with the rest of the vectors of foreign trade.
In fact, the classic factors of common interest of different states
to reduce the duties on their products or to make them more in demand
on foreign markets do not play any significant role in this situation.
Regarding Armenia, in general, the most useful words were said by
satirist Zadornov said in the last years of the Soviet Union: “Our
goal is to reach the world market! And to at least buy something…”
Armenia’s economy is prohibitively import-oriented. True “export goods”
are not scarce extracted minerals but the labor of migrant workers of
the Armenian diaspora – 2.4 million people in Russia, given that the
number of Armenians living in their homeland is a little more than
3 million. Transfer payments sent home are the determining factors
of foreign exchange earnings, which allow the economy to continue to
exist with the unthinkable negative balance of foreign trade. However,
signing or not signing the agreements with the European Union does
not improve or worsen the movement of financial assistance through
international payment systems.
Similarly, a few signed papers do not improve the real conditions
of international trade in Armenia. To do this, they need not the
signatures but the opening of the path of movement of goods.
Meanwhile, Yerevan, due its policy towards its neighbors, is under
blockade by Azerbaijan and Turkey. The relations with Georgia are
also not so good, especially because of the cool relations between
Tbilisi and Moscow.
However, pro-Western politicians and intellectuals in Yerevan on the
eve of the EU summit in Vilnius are not averse to indulge in sweet
dreams. On July 15, the deputy from the ruling Republican Party of
Armenia Gagik Minasyan expressed the view that the signing of the
association agreement will lead to the opening of the Armenian-Turkish
border, as for Europe “closed borders are unacceptable.” There is
one problem – the MP has forgotten that Turkey is not included into
the European Union and it is not obliged to obey the rules. Ankara is
almost the only European capital which “dares to have a judgment” on
a range of issues, including the most resonant ones – like relations
with Iran, the Palestinian Authority in Israel and the situation in
Syria. Against this background, counting on the fact that for the
sake of the ghost of “Eastern Partnership”, the group in which it
is not included, Turkey would agree to bury the doctrinal Armenian
Turkophobia, expressed in particular in the constant raising of the
idea of the “Armenian genocide”, and take its haters in the friendly
embrace, is not possible.
The Director of the Center for Regional Studies Richard Giragosian
expressed an even more fantastic idea on the topic of “the benefits
of the association with the EU for Armenia”. According to him, if the
situation escalates over Nagorno-Karabakh, “Brussels can punish Baku,
as no one needs the war in the region”. However, political scientist
could not even describe the specific mechanisms of this “punishment”.
If the issue is focused on “punishment” during the hostilities Yerevan
provoked, then perhaps it will touch upon notthe main alternative
supplier of strategic energy resources to Europe, Azerbaijan but
those who blow up in the region for a quarter of a century by their
aggressive policy.
However, the weak logic during involving Armenia into the “Eastern
Partnership” can also be seen on the European side. Azerbaijan is
the major supplier of oil and gas to the European market, which is
concerned about the diversification of supply from Russia. Georgia
is not less important transit route for these supplies. Armenia can
provide nothing but its problems, fundamentally unsolvable under the
previous EU foreign policy.
The only explanation of the Armenian-European cooperation is that
the European Union want to do something to spite Russia, which,
incidentally, is also working with Armenia which is completely
uninteresting for it in economic terms in defiance of the West –
look, we also have a strategic ally in the Caucasus.
An important role in the Euro-centric attempts made by Yerevan is
played by the internal factor. It has long been the custom that in
their troubles both individuals and entire nations prefer to blame
someone else but not themselves. And Armenia, conducting destructive
policies for nearly a quarter-centurytrying to “beat” the neighbor,
exceeding its number of population by 3 times, as well as in terms
of GDP, drove itself to the brink of economic ruin and abyss. The
“arms race”, “expeditionary corps” and “humanitarian corridors” from
foreign territories can bring much more economically prosperous states
to their knees.
Recognizing this fact in the Armenian society and political circles
is like death – political, anyway. So people start searching for an
answer to the eternal question: “What to do – and who is to blame?” As
for those whom Yerevan has appointed to the role of enemies, Turkey
and Azerbaijan, there is no progress with them while maintaining
the same policy, and the authorities can only blame the allies. That
is, Russia. Well, it should turn the life of Armenia in the earthly
paradise, with its oil wealth, shouldn’t it? And unscrupulous Gazprom
even increases the price of gas – not too much, just to 270 dollars
per thousand cubic meters, that, for example, is twice cheaper than
for “brotherly” Ukraine in terms of constant glancing at the West. And
the price has been raised only after the official Yerevan too frankly
declared its commitment to European principles, which, in the opinion
of the European Union, are not compatible with membership in the
Customs Union and the hypothetical Eurasian Union. But it still
hurts – because the Kremlin could give gas to Yerevan for nothing,
and with these “injections” Armenia on all cylinders would rush to
the coveted Europe.
One way or another, but after decades of economic hopelessness and
the militarization of society, the Russian vector of cooperation in
the eyes of many Armenians began to look more and more bleak, and the
European “milk and honey” – more enticing. Although it would seem that
the global economic crisis, because of which the “poor relatives” in
the “common European home”, like Greece or Cyprus, are not really in
favor, should have alerted the experts among the Armenian “Westerners”.
How can they think realistically? The most banal Russophobia appears in
the country. A striking example of this was the situation surrounding
the arrest of the Armenian driver, who became responsible for an
accident near Podolsk. The prosecuted countryman means a “rigged
anti-Armenian campaign.” It is possible to arrange pickets in front of
the Russian embassy and to fill the entire Internet with angry posts.
So in this attempt of Yerevan to get to the European Union, if you
look, there is nothing surprising – with the observed touching unity
of anti-Russian citizens and the ill-concealed Eurocentrism of the
ruling elite. The only thing which those and others are missing is
that no change in the vector of foreign policy can fix the position
of Armenia placed by Forbes among the worst economies in the world, as
long as this Caucasian republic does not give up its other militarist
vector of mobilization and establish relations with its neighbors,
rather than dwelling with them in a state of either “cold” or even
“hot” war.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/42906.html