Author: Kalantarian Kevo

ANALYST RICHARD GIRAGOSIAN: “CUSTOMS UNION HAS LITTLE NEW TO OFFER ARMENIA”
Hrant Gadarigian

15:07, September 6, 2013

Lambasting President Serzh Sargsyan’s recent last minute announcement
that Armenia is planning to join the Russian led Customs Union as
“closing the door to Europe, Yerevan-based political analyst Richard
Giragosian said there was still time for Yerevan to make sure the
door isn’t “locked”.

Giragosian, who heads the Regional Studies Center, argued at a press
conference today that the Customs Union had little new to offer
Armenia and that the country had much to lose instead.

The analyst stressed that the decision-making process itself (the
lack of prior public discourse) leading to Sargsyan’s last minute
bombshell announcement reveals more about the weakness of Armenia’s
internal foreign policy strategy than anything else.

He faulted the Armenian government for not being as ambitious as it
needs to be in the foreign policy sphere.

Giragosian said that the European Union and the West in general will
regard Armenia as less than sincere and competent and that, by entering
the Customs Union, the country’s strategic importance will weaken.

It was never a decision of choosing between the West and Russia in
terms of Armenia’s security interests, noted Giragosian, pointing out
that neither the Putin’s Customs Union nor the EU’s DCFTA (Deep and
Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement) had anything to do with security
matters in the first place.

“I have always argued that Armenia needs to maintain its security
treaties with Russia, but the issue at hand deals with economic
orientation as well as Armenia’s long-term reform process,” Giragosian
said, claiming that the possibility for future democratic reforms in
Armenia has now been endangered.

The analyst, answering his own question as to who will benefit from
Armenia’s entry in the Customs Union, pointed to the country’s
oligarchs and the system of corruption. “By denying competition
from Europe, these are the sectors that will reap benefits, not the
population at large,” Giragosian said.

He derided the claims by some that Russia was the sole guarantor
of the safety of Armenia, and thus, by extension, Yerevan couldn’t
risk upsetting Moscow. Giragosian said issues of Armenia’s security
and that of Artsakh, as an argument for entering the Customs Union,
were basically a red-herring.

“Armenian soldiers on the Artsakh front line are being killed by
Azerbaijani soldiers using weapons sold by Russia. What security
guarantees are we talking about? What leverage does Russia have over
Karabakh? It can’t even threaten to rescind its recognition of the NKR,
because it has yet to recognize it,” Giragosian noted.

He concluded his talk on a slightly upbeat note.

“To be fair, President Sargsyan signed nothing in Moscow. Hopefully,
he can maneuver his way out of this mess.”

NSC SECRETARY DENIES PRESSURE ON ARMENIA FOR CUSTOMS UNION MEMBERSHIP

13:52 06/09/2013 ” POLITICS

Nothing was done secretly. I was aware of the process, moreover, I
worked at those documents, Armenian National Security Council (NSC)
Secretary Arthur Baghdasaryan told a news conference in Yerevan in
commenting on media reports that the Armenian President’s Moscow
statement was secret and no one was informed about it.

There has been no pressure on Armenia, the official added.

“We announce that we are ready to sign the Association Agreement
with Brussels, and we keep in touch with our European partners,”
Baghdasaryan stressed.

Source: Panorama.am

UNKNOWN PERSONS BEAT HAYKAK ARSHAMYAN AND SUREN SAGHATELYAN (VIDEO)

September 6 2013

Shortly before, unknown persons attacked and beat social activists
Haykak Arshamyan and Suren Saghatelyan. In response to the question of
“Aravot” as to where, in what circumstances and what was the reasoning
of the incident occurred, the historian and the employee of the Yerevan
Press club Haykak Arshamyan currently being in the hospital N1 told
that the incident took place in the yard of his house, when he was
parking his car. “Six people attacked me saying “are you a Diaspora
man, hey bro!” and started to hit”- said he. At this very moment,
Haykak Arshamyan and Suren Saghatelyan are in the hospital and have
applied to the police. According to Mr. Arshamyan, they certainly
do not know those who beat, they were “six bull necks”, but he is
convinced that the reason of the beat was their recent activism in
the protest actions against Armenia’s joining the Customs Union,
particularly the participation in the demonstration held yesterday in
front of RA Presidential House. “Suren got head injuries, my cheek
is torn from inside,”- said Haykak Arshamyan. Photos from Suren
Saghatelyan’s and Haykak Arshamyan’s Facebook pages. The video,
CivilNetTV Melania BARSEGHYAN

Read more at:

HINTS TO SERZH SARGSYAN

Answering the question of Tert.am whether the decision of Armenia
was a deal of blackmailing by Russia, the U.S. Ambassador Heffern
made an symptomatic statement:

“I think you would have to ask Armenia’s elected leadership about that
question. As I have stated on numerous occasions, I think Armenia
places itself in a position to succeed when it maintains a range of
options in the political, economic and security spheres.”

In fact, the U.S. ambassador hints that Serzh Sargsyan’s decision
is evidence to rigging elections. If a government is elected, it
does not undergo external pressure and it does not make decisions
spontaneously but in the result of a public process.

On the other hand, the United States sent a “high-level”
congratulation to Serzh Sargsyan when he “scored” 58 in the
presidential election. Both the president and secretary of the United
States congratulated him. It was the first time the president of the
United States congratulated the president elect.

Instead, there was a precedent during the history of Armenia when the
United States spoke about electoral fraud post-factum. The United
States suddenly spoke about the election of 1998 many years later,
mentioning in one of the State Department reports about 100,000 votes
rigged for Robert Kocharyan.

There is a precedent, and the United States may react in a few months,
if not years, that 100,000 or more votes were rigged in favor of
Serzh Sargsyan in 2013.

But what will it bring? Nothing. The United States will merely win a
moral victory, and the score will be a draw because the United States
actually won a moral victory in the presidential election. It became
known post factum.

On the other hand, announcing about rigging during the presidential
election would not bring anything to the United States. Serzh
Sargsyan would have just announced earlier to join the Customs Union.
Therefore, Washington tried an option which it did not necessarily
believe but did not have an alternative.

The political forces of Armenia were used to the state of affairs
proposed by Moscow. The latter came to terms with the Heritage when
Raffi Hovanissian went to Putin after the presidential election.

In other words, in Armenia Washington is deprived of what it was
trying to make sure Armenia or Serzh Sargsyan have – options.

James Hakobyan 12:03 06/09/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:

DES REPRESENTANTS DU PARTI DACHNAK BIENTOT NOMMES AMBASSADEURS ?

ARMENIE

Selon les informations des medias, deux representants du parti
d’opposition FRA/Dachnaksoutioun, le depute Vahan Hovhannisian, et un
ex-Ministre de l’Education, Levon Mkrtchian, pourraient etre bientôt
nomme Ambassadeurs, le premier en Allemagne et le deuxième dans un
autre pays europeen. Si Levon Mkrtchian a dementi cette information,
Vahan Hovhannissian a refuse de donner de commentaires. Contacte par
des medias, le porte-parole du MAE n’a pas donne plus de details. ”
La nomination des Ambassadeurs est un long processus reglemente par
la Constitution armenienne et les lois. Il est prevu, en particulier,
de suivre des protocoles prealablement a la publication du decret
presidentiel “, a-t-il dit.

Extrait de la revue de presse de l’Ambassade de France en Armenie en
date du 30 août 2013

vendredi 6 septembre 2013, Stephane ©armenews.com

ARMENIA, GEORGIA AND THE CUSTOMS UNION

18:54 05.09.2013
Armenia, Customs Union, Georgia

Gita Elibekyan
“Radiolur”

Armenia could have problems with Georgia after joining the Russia-led
Customs Union, taking into consideration the free trade agreement
between the two countries, some Georgian politicians say. At the same
time, they consider that Armenia and Georgia are able to find a rapid
solution to all merging problems.

As for the perspectives of Georgia’s membership in the Customs Union,
experts say its hardly possible and consider that yesterday’s statement
of PM Bidzina Ivanishvili was a gesture to Russia.

One day after Armenia said it will join Russia’s Eurasian Union,
Georgia’s PM said it might, in due course, do the same. The remark
puzzle d the Georgian politicians and analysts. The issue of joining
the Customs Union had never been considered in Georgia before.

However, some politicians, mostly from the opposition, consider that
the PM’s statement puts the issue on the agenda.

Representative of President Mikhail Saakashvili’s United National
Movement Party David Darchiashvili says there could be two explanations
to Ivanishvili’s statement. “First, it may be the result of lack of
experience. Second, there could be a force behind these words trying
to change the political course of the country.”

Members of the Prime Minister’s Georgian Dream bloc view the statement
as a step targeted at improving the relations with Russia. One of the
leaders of the Republican Party Levan Berdenishvili noted that “PM
Ivanishvili says we can discuss all unions, but that does not mean
we’re going to join them.” “Besides, the Prime Minister is leaving
politics,” he added.

“As member of the Georgian Parliament, I declare that Georgia does
not have the intention to join the Customs Union or the Eurasian Union.

Georgia opts for the EU and NATO,” he told Public Radio of Armenia. He
added that the situation with Armenia is unique, and this should be
taken into consideration.

Both MPs consider that Armenia could have certain problems with
Georgia by joining the Customs Union. The two neighboring countries
have a free trade agreement and a number of other agreements providing
for favorable conditions for the development of economic ties. They
believe, however, that all problems will be solved after some changes
are implemented.

“I’m sure there should be no problems between Armenia and Georgia.

We’ll solve them thanks to our friendship. Irrespective of the fact
which unions our countries join, we’ll remain friends and will do our
best to maintain good economic relations,” Levan Berdenishvili said.

Director of the Center for EU Studies Kakha Gogolashvili says the free
trade between Armenia and Georgia may continue if the Customs Union
allows Armenia to maintain free trade regime with certain countries.

“Whatever, all this will have no impact on the process of shipment
of Armenian cargoes through Georgia,” he said.

NEW CUSTOMS OFFICE TO BE BUILT IN SYUNIK REGION

September 05, 2013 | 17:20

YEREVAN. – A new customs office will be built in Syunik Region,
near Shaki village.

During the Thursday meeting, Armenian government declared eminent
domain the villagers’ property of 7.1 hectares as well as 0.56 hectares
of the community.

Syunik Region is located in Armenia’s south and is bordering with Iran.

News from Armenia – NEWS.am

NAGORNO-KARABAKH TAKES BALANCED STANCE ON ARMENIA’S CUSTOMS UNION MOVE – OFFICIAL

21:06 05.09.13

The Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) Republic takes quite a balanced
approach to Armenia’s decision to join the Eurasian Customs Union,
a spokesperson for the country’s president has said, considering the
move Yerevan’s independent choice.

“I don’t think the move poses any harm to the Armenian statehood or
the interests of our people or Artsakh,” David Babayan told Tert.am,
adding that the authorities in Karabakh are not seeking any political
motives behind the process.

“Armenia continues implementing its foreign policies, so from that
point of view, I don’t think the move directly closes our doors to
cooperation with other countries. This is an option which I think has
been widely discussed, and the decision was made after considering
the pros and cons, so to say,” he added.

Asked about pro-Russian or pro-Western circles’ reaction to the move,
Babayan said he doesn’t admit any such splits in state policies. “I do
not admit such an approach. What does pro-Russian or pro-Western mean?

We are simply obliged to pursue complementary policies. We are a
Diaspora-oriented nation. Unfortunately, many Armenians reside abroad
as a result of the Genocide. Hence, we are obliged to maintain good
relations also with the countries which have a big Armenian Diaspora.

We cannot, for example, have negative relations with the United State.

Neither can we with Russia which has the biggest Armenian Diaspora.”

When asked whether Nagorno-Karabakh may join the Customs Union, the
spokesperson called for taking a sober approach to the issue to avoid
heated scenarios. He said Nagorno-Karabakh is an unrecognized country
regardless of possible memberships in any union. Babayan added that
the country has not yet developed mechanisms for developing relations
with unrecognized states.

Armenian News – Tert.am

CUSTOMS UNION OVERVIEW: WHAT ARE THE RISKS/REWARDS FOR ARMENIA?

SOCIETY | 05.09.13 | 19:04

Photolure

By GAYANE MKRTCHYAN
ArmeniaNow reporter

Joining the Customs Union puts Armenia in deeper dependence from
“the Russian Empire”, while the common economic zone, experts say,
is a veil for Moscow to solve its own, mostly political, issues.

Former head of the Central Bank of Armenia Bagrat Asatryan says
Armenia’s membership in the Customs Union (CU) is by 90 percent a
political issue, and only 10 percent economic, which will have a
heavy impact on Armenia’s economy.

“It is obvious that Putin simply said: ‘no more goofing around,
you must sign it’. Now, let’s put aside the issue whether he [Serzh
Sargsyan] is a good or a bad president, this [joining the Customs
Union] is a crucial issue for our country, so I want to raise
questions: what steps will be taken, what will be the process, what
volume, what tasks and objectives? It is like opening a window and
stepping into fog, not even knowing whether there is ground under
your feet, or whether there is a bridge, or you are just walking on
the air, in total obscurity,” Asatryan told ArmeniaNow.

Besides this obscurity, he says, Armenia is not ready to enter such
a framework, as it has no common borders with any of the CU member
countries, however, he does not rule out “healthy discussions” to
make it somewhat reasonable.

“If Russia guarantees that this is the price for the Abkhazian
railway, after somehow working through its issues with Georgia, then
the situation would alter significantly and the membership in the CU
would be an issue of sensible discussions. The next major, tough, issue
is whether we are entering CU with or without Karabakh. If without,
wouldn’t it mean that we are giving up Karabakh? And if Russians have
promised that they are solving this global issue, then, excuse me,
but I am all for it,” says the economist.

Does joining CU mean that Armenia would later find itself part of
common Ruble zone? Governance expert Harutyun Mesrobyan says it would
bring along more risks.

“In Europe many countries gave up their national monetary units,
and that’s when the crisis started. None of the countries, among
them Greece, Portugal, Spain, had their separate levers – their own
monetary unit, which are tools to resist and fight economic crisis,”
he told ArmeniaNow.

Meanwhile, Asatryan believes being in a bigger monetary zone can
be favorable for small economic entities, it is a new quality of
development, and the emotional aspect of the issue, typical of small
nations, should be put side.

“The issue here is different. We want to enter a single zone, whom do
we want to live with, the poor or the rich? Naturally, the rich. But
Russia is yet an unviable economic entity, up until now it remains
an empire, and all empires collapse one day. Some two decades ago
it was the Soviet Union and it collapsed; who can claim that those
processes won’t recur in Russia?” he questions.

CU membership implies that Armenia loses its free trade agreements.

Earlier in his interview to ArmNews TV, deputy foreign minister
Shavarsh Kocharyan said that joining CU means “losing sovereignty”.

“We have a free trade agreement with Georgia, and in this case Georgia
would have to sign an agreement with the union’s over-national body,”
he said.

Armenia is approaching the end of its double game.

“You cannot adopt one principle with the Customs Union and another
with the rest of the world, you are no longer independent in that view,
you commit to adhere to a single policy,” says Asatryan.

By Customs Union many understand return to former Soviet Union. While,
Asatryan says, it is more about politics, consolidated by economic
means, the source of which is the international prices for energy
carriers.

“And if prices for oil happen to drop by 50 percent? If the oil sector
is extracted, Russia’s economy equals that of Turkey. This Customs
Union is temporary, I assure you, because Russia has set a rather
big political objective – a common economic zone, but has neither
financial nor political resources for it,” says Asatryan.

By joining CU Armenia won’t lose the European market, but will be
deprived of development opportunities. Asatryan says the road to
Europe had numerous challenges, too, but at least “we knew where we
were going”.

“And what are Russia’s political values? Corruption. And, if for
nothing else, getting rid of that component by itself would have
been worth it. Russia is by far not the developed, viable entity
to become full partners with,” he says. “We have brought this upon
ourselves by our terribly distorted regime, disgraceful elections,
weak authorities, and a state that has no values. The thing is that
one has to be a factor, and today we are Russia’s outpost, and when
you are small, but still a factor, you are reckoned with.”

Thomas de Waal, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment,
specializing primarily in the South Caucasus region, writes in
his article posted in the Carnegie Moscow Center’s website: “Some
in the Armenian government complain that the EU did not give them
room for maneuver, and it is true that the Brussels bureaucracy is
a clunky machine that does not do diplomacy well. But you can also
see this as a car crash in slow motion over several years. Both the
administration of Sargsyan, and Robert Kocharyan before him, embraced
a Russian take-over of the economy, which left them political control
and did not expose them to European-style competition. As Sargsyan
began (tentatively) to have second thoughts about this bargain,
he found himself badly short of options.”

()

RUSSIA THREATENED ARMENIA WITH DOMESTIC PROBLEMS – DAVID SHAHNAZARYAN

15:55 05.09.13

“Sovereignty in exchange for security” is the designation David
Shahnazaryan, an ex-member of the Armenian National Congress (ANC),
offered as he commented on Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s decision
to join the Customs Union.

According to him, the decision was made only recently, under Russia’s
“tremendous pressure.” Shahnazaryan is sure that Russia informed
Armenia of Azerbaijan’s new threats to unleash war.

“I would like to remind you that Russia recently supplied offensive
weapons to Azerbaijan and stressed its strategic relations with
Azerbaijan. They promised and threatened to worsen the domestic
situation in Armenia,” he said.

With respect to the reasons for pressure on Armenia now, Shahnazaryan
said that the European Partnership Summit is nearing, and Armenia is
expected to initial an association agreement with the European Union.

“Secondly, the entire West has riveted its attention on Syria.

Thirdly, Russia had to make a serious step toward EU programs. What
are the consequences of Armenia’s signing an agreement with the
Customs Union? In this case, Moscow will decide Armenia’s foreign
policy almost one hundred percent. Years ago the then President Robert
Kocharyan and the then FM Vartan Oskanian had Nagorno-Karabakh pull
out of the talks. And now after Armenia joins the Customs Union, it
will coordinate all its steps with Russia,” Shahnazarov said. This
will have its impact on Armenian-Turkish relations and pose a threat
to Armenian-Georgian relations.

Armenia’s Constitution rules out full membership in the Customs Union.

“The rules of the Customs Union envisage the formation of a
supranational body. The member-states for a common customs area, and
the body decides the customs policy and regulates trade with third
countries. Joining the Customs Union will result in Armenia losing its
sovereignty, which is ruled out by our Constitution. No constitutional
amendment can legalize Armenia’s membership,” Shahnazaryan said.

According to him, the only way to resolve the problem is civil
society’s struggle to prevent Armenia from signing an agreement with
the Customs Union. “It runs counter to the interests of our people,
state and Nagorno-Karabakh. It is not all over. We still have much
time and everything may change,” Shahnazaryan said.

Armenian News – Tert.am