LAURE DELCOUR: EU WILL REMAIN ENGAGED WITH ARMENIA, ONLY MODALITIES OF THIS ENGAGEMENT WILL CHANGE
19:21 19/09/2013 ” INTERVIEWS
Panorama presents an interview with Dr. Laure Delcour – Senior
Research Fellow at the Institute for International and Strategic
Relations (IRIS), France. Dr. Delcour specializes in the EU policies
in the post-Soviet area, the EU-Russia partnership and the European
Neighbourhood Policy.
– Dr. Delcour, you have written extensively on the European Union’s
policy towards Russia. Could you comment on the current EU policies
as regards to Russia’s neighbourhood and in particular on the recent
developments within countries like Ukraine, Moldova and Armenia?
– These countries are not only part of Russia’s neighbourhood; they
have also been part of the EU’s neighbourhood since 2004 and 2007
enlargements. With the Eastern Partnership the EU has significantly
upgraded its offer to partner countries. It offers association
agreements, deep and comprehensive free-trade areas, the perspective
of visa liberalisation subject to conditions being met, and enhanced
sectoral cooperation. Nevertheless, EU policies require considerable
efforts and costs on the part of partner countries, while they will
be able to reap the benefits only in the long-term. In addition, the
EU has only recently started to take into account the consequences
of Russia-led regional integration initiatives and the effects of
Russian policies (ie. Short-term benefits, but also strong pressure)
on partner countries. The effects of Russian pressure may however turn
out to be counter-productive and push some countries closer to the EU.
So the key point is that this is a dynamic process. Joining regional
integration schemes or initialling association agreement with the EU,
as expected in the case of Moldova and Georgia at the Vilnius summit,
is only the beginning.
– And if this is only the beginning then where are these countries
ultimately heading – to a geopolitical alliance with EU/NATO?
– By saying only the beginning I meant that for these countries there
is still a long way to go to fully implement the commitments that
will be taken under the AA/DCFTA.
– The Republic of Armenia has recently announced about Armenia’s
intention to join the Custom’s Union and few days later the European
Commissioner for Enlargement and Neighborhood Policy Stefan Fule
announced that it was no longer possible for Armenia to proceed with
the Association Agreement. Where exactly does this incompatibility
rest? Do you think these processes are incompatible in purely economic
or rather in political (geopolitical) terms?
– The incompatibility is clearly in economic terms. It lies in
deep economic integration that both schemes (the ECU and the Deep
Comprehensive and Free Trade Agreements) propose. For instance, being
a member of the two schemes would entail complying with, and applying
two different external trade tariffs, which is of course impossible.
– How would you assess the future prospects of cooperation between
the EU and Armenia after the recent developments?
– The situation is unprecedented and paradoxical. On the one hand,
Armenia has already achieved considerable progress in adopting
EU policy templates and approximating its legal framework with EU
acquis in a number of sectors. This was indeed a EU pre-condition
for launching DCFTA negotiations. On the other hand, given the
incompatibility between ECU and DCFTAs, the EU will not initial the
Association Agreement (of which DCFTA forms an integral part) with
Armenia at the Vilnius Eastern Partnership summit. However, no doubt
that the EU will remain engaged with Armenia, only the modalities
and probably the scale of this engagement will change.
– How would you characterise the prospects of Russia-led Customs
Union and the creation of the Eurasian Union?
Clearly, the Russia-led Customs Union differs from previous regional
integration projects in the former Soviet space. The ECU is more
ambitious. It is premised on a strong institutional framework
including a supranational body and deep economic integration through
regulatory convergence. However, there are several question marks as
to the cohesion of this initiative. First, the extent to which member
countries (currently Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan’s interests are
actually compatible. For instance, Kazakhstan had to increase its
customs tariffs as a result of ECU membership. And second, ECU’s
actual ability to attract new members. Armenia has just decided to
join the ECU and Kyrgyzstan expressed an interest as well. However,
the question is whether this interest in ECU membership is genuine
or whether it results from external pressures.
– Dr. Rainer Lindner, Executive Director of the Committee on Eastern
European Economic Relations, in his latest interview has expressed an
opinion that the solution to the dilemma between the Custom’s Union
and the EU can lie in the dialogue between Russia and the EU. How
would you assess the prospects of such a dialogue?
– The dialogue between Russia and the EU is indeed critical to
promoting security and democracy in the neighbourhood. The Roadmap
on external security that was agreed upon in Saint-Petersbourg and
launched in Moscow in 2005 provided for the strengthening of EU-Russia
dialogue, and possibly joint initiatives, on crisis management and the
settlement of regional conflicts, inter alia in those regions adjacent
to the EU’s and Russia’s borders. Nonetheless, the EU-Russia dialogue
on the common neighbourhood has been limited, to say the least. Now
that Russia has launched the Customs Union, this dialogue is even
more unlikely to develop. This is because Russia hopes to initiate
an inter-regional, or inter-block, dialogue with the EU once the
Eurasian Union is in place.
– Dr. Delcour, thank you for your comments.
Source: Panorama.am