WHAT WILL ARMENIA DO AFTER CUSTOMS UNION?
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments – Tuesday, 25 February 2014, 12:20
The Foreign Ministry has repeatedly warned Russia’s political
leadership about a possible global scandal over Moscow’s policy
on Ukraine.
It is possible that Moscow regrets its behavior regarding the
association between Ukraine and the European Union. The most
important thing has not been achieved: the Western community did
not accept the call and did not go for conciliation and negotiations
with Russia on Ukraine and Eastern Europe. These Europe – Ukraine –
Russia negotiations had to be a way of preventing and breaking the
geopolitical and geo-economic blockade of Russia and the isolation
of its ruling elite, that is the key to return Putin to the “club”
of world politicians.
Finally, after Viktor Yanukovych had escaped from Kiev, Moscow achieved
telephone calls between Vladimir Putin and leaders of the Western
States. However, it looked like a favor rather than substantive
negotiations. In Moscow they are starting to understand that the
current political leadership of Russia provincial petty functionaries
their finger on the nuclear button.
Regional expansion can only be imperial and requires prominent
politicians or rather geopoliticians who were many in the history
of Russia. The Russian elite are typically small-bore. The present
oligarchic group of nouveau riches and uncaught economic criminals is
clearly unable to resolve the problem of recreating the empire. To
do this, Moscow has neither genuine interest, nor ideology, nor
generation that is willing to make a sacrifice in the name of the
imperial idea. There are only some unscrupulous propagandists and
puppet governments in a few vassal countries who are waiting readily
to shed Moscow’s dictate.
One way or another, one needs to respond to the catastrophe that took
place in Ukraine. Moreover, not Ukraine but Russia’s foreign policy was
wrecked. The key results of this Moscow adventure were: acceleration
of overthrow of the regime that the Ukrainian people hated; Russia’s
“loss” of the entire Ukrainian nation which is now deeply insulted;
intensifying blockade of Russia in the west; imminent domestic crisis
in Russia; revision and rethinking of Russian foreign policies,
including the Black Sea and the Caucasus and Central Asian areas.
As to the “intensification of the blockade in the western direction”,
this is not as much related to pressure on behalf of the U.S. and
the UK as the elimination of commitments in relations with Germany,
as well as countries of continental Europe which will come together
around NATO and are ready to accept any positive defense initiative
of the alliance, primarily regarding European security issues.
First of all, it will have to get over the situation in Ukraine. The
Russian-speaking coven in Kharkov where only howl, groans and curses
were heard became a bad warning of the possibility of military
intervention by Russia. The leaders of this gathering in Kharkov
have already escaped to Russia and apparently participated in this
performance for the opportunity to continue their criminal activities
with Russian passports. Even this large-scale provocation proved
absolutely meaningless and did not have any significant influence
on Kiev. In fact, this is just another attempt of intimidation that
had nothing to do with Moscow’s true intentions. Russia does not need
the Russian-speaking provinces of Ukraine, it is simply ridiculous to
Moscow’s logic and interests. In Moscow, nobody is going to support
and subsidize manufacturing in these regions that do not belong to
it and which will cause big problems. Russian-speaking regions need
Moscow as part of Ukraine as a lever of pressure on it.
But what will happen to the left-bank Ukraine? If Moscow refrains
from provoking this issue, nothing special will happen. Left-bank
Ukraine will stay on the left bank of Dniepr, and the new ruling team
has sufficient pragmatism, these areas may be given more extended
administrative and economic rights. Actually, this was announced at
this gathering in Kharkov.
Just in one day the Russian propaganda changed its tone and began
calling “yesterday’s” extremists and fascists Ukrainian government. Is
it because of the release of Yulia Timoshenko from prison – Russia’s
last hope and perhaps only bid? Maybe but, most probably, Russia faced
a “great impasse” in its modern history, and will not only have to
save its face but also ensure its national security.
The Western community has practically recognized the new government
despite all doubts about its legitimacy, and a lot of states have
already expressed willingness to provide financial assistance and
political support to Ukraine.
Russia has enormous leverage over Ukraine and apparently relies on
the pragmatism of new Ukrainian leaders and, perhaps, controversies
among them to establish anew more or less predictable relations. Moscow
will support pragmatists of Ukraine, it is evident, but it will have
to admit that the future of Ukraine is close partnership with the
European Union and NATO.
Now Russia is concerned with how to prevent NATO troops and bases in
Ukraine and save the bases of the Black Sea fleet. Any government in
Ukraine will try to establish equal, good neighborly relations with
Russia. In the end, it is not about relations between states but
peoples. Ukraine will build relations with Russia as an independent
state, free to determine their own destiny.
This perspective that Russia cannot be reconciled with will certainly
affect its policy in the southern strategic direction and intentions
here must be verified and corrected, and not at all in a long-term
perspective. In the new situation it is necessary to escape this
framework of relations with Russia without excessive losses though
it is hardly possible.
But the situation is no better in other directions. As before, Russia
and CSTO are continuously involved in conflicts in Central Asia,
relations with China are growing uncertain, and it is envisaged
to block Russia in the Asia Pacific. In the Middle East, after the
solution of the situation in Syria, no “place of honor” will be found
for Russia. The emerging US-Iranian alliance will change the situation
in a vast area, including in the Black Sea-Caucasus-Caspian region.
The political leadership of Armenia is trying to understand what it
should do in case the Customs Union disappears. Some high-ranking
functionaries assert “look how deftly Armenia acted, leaving space
to maneuver, and if commitments to Russia remain in the past, the
way to the West will be open to us”.
Interestingly, with such genius we have appeared in such rotten swamp.
Armenia is still lucky, however, and despite belated evaluations of
American and British political scientists about the apathy of the U.S.
foreign policy and change of foreign policy priorities, the U.S. and
the UK faced the threat of filling the vacuum in Eastern Europe and
launched a new stage of integration of the region with NATO.
Armenia is definitely and straightforwardly called to launch a policy
of integration into NATO if the European Union failed to implement
the “Eastern Partnership” project. At the same time, NATO and the
European Union may start “competing” for accelerating integration of
the countries of Eastern Europe based on security conditions.
Who should make decisions in Armenia? Due to need for training on
decisions it would be logical to rename the Moscow Square in Yerevan to
“Kyiv Maidan Square.
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